Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated list

[Deus Irae]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

So you attribute better receiving threats to much less of a problem for Brady under interior pressure then. That would certainly make sense.

Well, I look at who the outlet receivers are in case of pressure, as part of the way you counter it.

I was looking at it more in a "who's better at center vs pressure" way, but couldn't see much difference no matter who plays there. The fact that Koppen also tended to struggle vs interior pressure makes it seem like no matter what, anyone is going to have somewhere around the same kind of success/failure.

I hear what you're saying. It sure doesn't help when your center can't hold the point of attack, and that's been a problem for Wendel.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Yes, yes, PFF wrote it, it must NOT be true!

Pretty much, yes. It's certainly not going to be trustworthy.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

I love Welker, but he is overrated. I don't think he deserves to be in the same category as Johnson and Fitzgerald. Those two have proven that they can raise an average QB's game and be a threat that people have to dedicate extra attention even with guys like Shaun Hill, John Skelton, and Kevin Kolb throwing to them. Those two are the elite of the elite at WR and Welker is on the next tier down.

The fact that anyone talks about Welker in the same breath as Megatron or Fitzgerald makes him overrated. Welker has been in the top 10 and mostly in the top 5 while in New England, but he isn't the elite of the elite.

Personally, I expect his numbers to drop quite a bit this year. Welker was Brady's binkie and his numbers reflected that. I don't know if Manning will feel the same way when he has other options. Don't be shocked if he has a sub 100 catch and 1,000 yard season this year. Until we see if Manning adopts Welker as his binkie like Brady did, we don't know what to expect of him production-wise.

Overrated is subjective because it depends on how they are 'rated'.
Many on this board severely underrate Welker (and that numbers grows since he left).
I have not seen a single person ever compare him favorably to Fitzgerald or Johnson. It is interesting to note though that in terms of production he has been right there with them. Production is fact, opinion about which way of producing is 'better' is not.
Welker is actually underrated because he is often dismissed as a 'slot receiver' with full intention of that being a slight, or gets comments like you listed above, calling him Brady's 'binkie'.
Brady did not throw to Welker because he liked him or felt sorry for him, he threw to him because he got open. Wes Welker gets open more than any receiver in NFL and probably in NFL history. Ignoring that and calling him a binkie is the epitome of underrating, and in fact insulting.
Funny no one did that when he was here.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Welker is one of the very best slot receivers of all time. Is that a slight on his talent? I don't think so.

And yes, we over-rate him if we mistakenly compare him with Johnson or other difference makers as outside receivers.

Overrated is subjective because it depends on how they are 'rated'.
Many on this board severely underrate Welker (and that numbers grows since he left).
I have not seen a single person ever compare him favorably to Fitzgerald or Johnson. It is interesting to note though that in terms of production he has been right there with them. Production is fact, opinion about which way of producing is 'better' is not.
Welker is actually underrated because he is often dismissed as a 'slot receiver' with full intention of that being a slight, or gets comments like you listed above, calling him Brady's 'binkie'.
Brady did not throw to Welker because he liked him or felt sorry for him, he threw to him because he got open. Wes Welker gets open more than any receiver in NFL and probably in NFL history. Ignoring that and calling him a binkie is the epitome of underrating, and in fact insulting.
Funny no one did that when he was here.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Overrated is subjective because it depends on how they are 'rated'.
Many on this board severely underrate Welker (and that numbers grows since he left).
I have not seen a single person ever compare him favorably to Fitzgerald or Johnson. It is interesting to note though that in terms of production he has been right there with them. Production is fact, opinion about which way of producing is 'better' is not.
Welker is actually underrated because he is often dismissed as a 'slot receiver' with full intention of that being a slight, or gets comments like you listed above, calling him Brady's 'binkie'.
Brady did not throw to Welker because he liked him or felt sorry for him, he threw to him because he got open. Wes Welker gets open more than any receiver in NFL and probably in NFL history. Ignoring that and calling him a binkie is the epitome of underrating, and in fact insulting.
Funny no one did that when he was here.

I am not underrating him. I said he was mostly a top 5 WR in the league. You take away Fitzgerald and Johnson and you can only have at most two other WRs entire league ahead of him by my standards. There were some years he was clearly the best behind those two.

He was Brady's binkie because he would ignore other receivers to force balls to Welker. It was because Brady trusted him because until last year, he never dropped anything thrown to him. It wasn't that Brady liked him personally or felt sorry for him, it was because he knew he would catch the ball. The problem with that is Brady would get too tunnel vision with Welker and it hurt the team at times vs. great defenses. It wasn't the only reason the Pats lost in these cases, but it was a contributing factor.

He was Brady's binkie and that is undeniable. He would rather throw to Welker in triple coverage than most of his receivers with no one within five yards of him. That doesn't diminish Welker. In fact, the fact that Brady went to him so much speaks volumes to what Brady thought of him. That is stating facts. Brady went from the open man being his favorite WR pre-Welker to Welker being his favorite WR.

BTW, prior to Welker leaving there were plenty of times on this board when the media wouldn't call Welker the best WR in the league that there were endless threads of people countering that. There were plenty of people on this board who thought Welker were better than Fitzgerald or Megatron.

And I think Welker could very well drop below 100 catches and 1,000 yards this season because for all of Manning's deficiencies that the media chooses to ignore, he does spread the ball around quite a bit and already has two 1,000 yard receivers on the roster. Manning probably won't overrely on Welker like Brady did (and I don't know how that is a swipe at Welker that Brady overrelied on him).

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Welker is one of the very best slot receivers of all time. Is that a slight on his talent? I don't think so.

And yes, we over-rate him if we mistakenly compare him with Johnson or other difference makers as outside receivers.

Yeah, I agree. Welker is the arguably the best slot receiver of all time, but that doesn't compare to difference making outside receivers like Fitzgerald and Johnson.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Welker is one of the very best slot receivers of all time. Is that a slight on his talent? I don't think so.

And yes, we over-rate him if we mistakenly compare him with Johnson or other difference makers as outside receivers.

Since essentially nobody points to Welker as a strict 1:1 equal with either Fitzgerald or Johnson, this is really a non-issue. Welker is better in his role than either Fitzgerald or Johnson would likely be, just as they are better in their roles than Welker would be.

To go from that to claiming that Welker is overrated was ridiculous on the part of the poster.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Welker will drop below 100 catches because the Broncos have two strong outside receivers.
We had Lloyd and Branch. If Manning had Lloyd and Branch as his outside receivers, Welker would get over 100 catches in Denver also.

And I think Welker could very well drop below 100 catches and 1,000 yards this season because for all of Manning's deficiencies that the media chooses to ignore, he does spread the ball around quite a bit and already has two 1,000 yard receivers on the roster. Manning probably won't overrely on Welker like Brady did (and I don't know how that is a swipe at Welker that Brady overrelied on him).

 

[primetime]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Yes, yes, PFF wrote it, it must NOT be true!

I think this type of analysis is ok from PFF. Big sample size, and easy to categorize result. It's some of their more early -ahem- subjective statistical analysis that gave them a bad name, as it should have. But don't throw out the baby with the bath water, no one else is spending the time do this. They looked at 1300 snaps for one player, that's a huge sample. As long as they stayed relatively consistent across the players and results, any bumps should even out, and the results should be good enough to at least discuss. Better than an i-saw-this, he-did-that-one-game type of analysis.

But it remains a pseudo-statistical scale based on subjective decisions that are biased by the decision-maker. It's shoddy empirically, and the correlation with actual observable phenomena is pretty weak.

 

[Off The Grid]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Mankins is a copout, and Prisco even admits it. Of course a guy playing on one good knee is going to be worse at pushing huge men around than he was when he had two good knees. It just seems that Mankins' unique situation in which the knee has affected him for two seasons of play (the one after fixing it that everybody has, the one before fixing it that nobody else has) has led to nobody giving him the benefit of the doubt that every other player that tears an ACL gets.

Bing!! That...is the Correct Response!!

 

[Off The Grid]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Sure, I understand the concern with PFF statistics, but I also think we all know that Brady's weakness is pressure up the middle simply judging from the eye test and our experience following the team.

Well, sure...

But that's like saying "He's not nearly as effective when you kick'm in the Balls!!" C'mon, now!!

 

[supafly]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

But it remains a pseudo-statistical scale based on subjective decisions that are biased by the decision-maker. It's shoddy empirically, and the correlation with actual observable phenomena is pretty weak.

Boy do I wish I had you around when I was taking my stats classes. Would've made things a lot easier

Well, sure...

But that's like saying "He's not nearly as effective when you kick'm in the Balls!!" C'mon, now!!

Yeah, understood. I was comparing the pressure up the middle vs the pressure coming from the outside though, which has been very different.

Like I said, judging by the same kind of success/failure rate with the past 3 centers of Koppen, Connelly, and Wendell--things seem to be pretty even, meaning that they have all struggled with that problem at times. My main question was how much different Wendell is in this aspect.

I think Deus pointing out the differences in outlet receivers makes a lot of sense, and sadly that was not something that immediately came to mind. I was looking at it differently (and very possibly incorrectly).

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Welker is one of the very best slot receivers of all time. Is that a slight on his talent? I don't think so.

And yes, we over-rate him if we mistakenly compare him with Johnson or other difference makers as outside receivers.

He is one of the best WRs of all time, so yes to label him a 'slot receiver' is a slight. It implies he is not a real WR.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

I am not underrating him. I said he was mostly a top 5 WR in the league. You take away Fitzgerald and Johnson and you can only have at most two other WRs entire league ahead of him by my standards. There were some years he was clearly the best behind those two.

Then how are you calling him overrated? Because he is a Bronco?

He was Brady's binkie because he would ignore other receivers to force balls to Welker.

That is a total ignorance of Brady and the Patriot offense. Brady threw to Welker because when he got to Welker in his progresssions he was open.
You are implying Brady saw wide open receivers and said 'not going to throw to that open guy, Wes needs this one'. Ludicrous.

It was because Brady trusted him because until last year, he never dropped anything thrown to him. It wasn't that Brady liked him personally or felt sorry for him, it was because he knew he would catch the ball.

You just invented this. So what was it, did Brady trust other receivers half the time they were open? 30%? What did you witness to see Brady saying he wouldn't throw to someone else. How often does he chose to ignore wide open recievers and if this was the case why are they on the field?

The problem with that is Brady would get too tunnel vision with Welker and it hurt the team at times vs. great defenses. It wasn't the only reason the Pats lost in these cases, but it was a contributing factor.

Totally untrue. If and when Welker got more passes vs good defenses its because the receivers that were ahead of him in progressions on plays got open less often.

He was Brady's binkie and that is undeniable.

Of course it is deniable, because it is wrong. He was the receiver who got open the most.

He would rather throw to Welker in triple coverage than most of his receivers with no one within five yards of him.

Could be the most ignorant statement you have ever made.
I would suggest that Brady never threw to Welker in triple coverage (duh because welker has never been triple covered) or not thrown to receiver with no one within five yards of him if he was in his progression before where the ball went.
Do you think the passing game operates with Brady dropping back surveying all receivers and picking which one to throw to? It sounds like it, and of course nothing could be further from the truth.

That doesn't diminish Welker.

Of course it does. You diminish what Welker produced with all of your comments in this post, saying Brady favored him incorrectly, and his catches were gifts, not earned.
You are basically saying Welker made Brady do stupid things, and Welker didn't deserve to get the ball thrown to him as often as it was.
Of course your comments diminish him.
Interesting you make them when he is a Bronco.

In fact, the fact that Brady went to him so much speaks volumes to what Brady thought of him. That is stating facts. Brady went from the open man being his favorite WR pre-Welker to Welker being his favorite WR.

Again, totally ignorant. The open man has always been Bradys favorite receviver. The throw distribution just tells you who the open man is. Any player getting open as much as welker would have seen the ball as much.

BTW, prior to Welker leaving there were plenty of times on this board when the media wouldn't call Welker the best WR in the league that there were endless threads of people countering that. There were plenty of people on this board who thought Welker were better than Fitzgerald or Megatron.

Please find me one example of anyone on this board saying Welker is better than Fitzgerald or Johnson. You either making this up, or have a bad memory.

And I think Welker could very well drop below 100 catches and 1,000 yards this season because for all of Manning's deficiencies that the media chooses to ignore, he does spread the ball around quite a bit and already has two 1,000 yard receivers on the roster. Manning probably won't overrely on Welker like Brady did (and I don't know how that is a swipe at Welker that Brady overrelied on him).

If Welker plays like he has, he will be open and will get the ball.
The difference in receptions will be how often he is later in the progressions than other receivers who get open. Its that simple. And if you get open better than anyone else, you are higher in the progressions.
If Brandon Stokely got open as often as Welker last year, he would have caught close to as many passes. He didn't because he couldn't get open that much.

You belittle that talent, which may be the most critical talent in a WR, by saying Brady just arbitrarily threw to him, because he didn't want to throw to open receivers.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Welker will drop below 100 catches because the Broncos have two strong outside receivers.
We had Lloyd and Branch. If Manning had Lloyd and Branch as his outside receivers, Welker would get over 100 catches in Denver also.

We also had Gronk and Hernandez.
Tamme, Dressen and Stokely caught 138.
Thomas and Decker caught 179 out of 400 pass completions.

In 2011 Gronk and Hernandez caught 169 and Welker still had 122.

 

[tonyto3690]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Brady threw to Welker a lot because he was consistently open. Lets not kid ourselves and act like Welker was jumping over guys and beating double coverage in the endzone and Brady was just forcing it (I'm looking at you Stafford). Welker got open, Brady gave him the ball.

I'm pretty sure Brady threw it to Lloyd more times than Welker this past season.


And saying "Brady struggles when pressure gets through up the middle" is pretty faux-smart. That's like saying "QB X does worse when he's getting sacked every down".

And I'm glad ONE analyst is finally calling it how it is. Mankins is so ridiculously overrated, and his contract is even worse. The second worst move in the Belichick era- behind Adalius Thomas, and even that's debatable since he was good in 2007 and had a monster SB.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

I don't think the idea is for Denver to reduce the roles of the TE's or the downfield receivers. Welker is clearly a significant upgrade to Stokely, and should have more than Stokely's 45 receptions, but there seems to be little reason to expect over 100 catches.

BTW, Manning is lobbying to have Stokely re-signed as his #4 wide receiver.

I suppose the offense could work out in 90 catches each for Welker, Thomas, Decker and the TE's. That's 360 without counting the running backs and the #4 WR. Manning is going to enjoy this season.

We also had Gronk and Hernandez.
Tamme, Dressen and Stokely caught 138.
Thomas and Decker caught 179 out of 400 pass completions.

In 2011 Gronk and Hernandez caught 169 and Welker still had 122.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Brady threw to Welker a lot because he was consistently open. Lets not kid ourselves and act like Welker was jumping over guys and beating double coverage in the endzone and Brady was just forcing it (I'm looking at you Stafford). Welker got open, Brady gave him the ball.

I'm pretty sure Brady threw it to Lloyd more times than Welker this past season.


And saying "Brady struggles when pressure gets through up the middle" is pretty faux-smart. That's like saying "QB X does worse when he's getting sacked every down".

And I'm glad ONE analyst is finally calling it how it is. Mankins is so ridiculously overrated, and his contract is even worse. The second worst move in the Belichick era- behind Adalius Thomas, and even that's debatable since he was good in 2007 and had a monster SB.

Lloyd's targets 130. Welker's targets 174.

And I never said Welker is always double teamed. But Brady will throw to him to when he is double teamed or well covered a lot because he trust Welker especially to break from the first contact. That is earned.

I don't get why people are so hung up on the fact he was Brady's binkie. Brady doesn't have a binkie that he doesn't trust implicitely.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

Then how are you calling him overrated? Because he is a Bronco?


That is a total ignorance of Brady and the Patriot offense. Brady threw to Welker because when he got to Welker in his progresssions he was open.
You are implying Brady saw wide open receivers and said 'not going to throw to that open guy, Wes needs this one'. Ludicrous.



You just invented this. So what was it, did Brady trust other receivers half the time they were open? 30%? What did you witness to see Brady saying he wouldn't throw to someone else. How often does he chose to ignore wide open recievers and if this was the case why are they on the field?


Totally untrue. If and when Welker got more passes vs good defenses its because the receivers that were ahead of him in progressions on plays got open less often.


Of course it is deniable, because it is wrong. He was the receiver who got open the most.



Could be the most ignorant statement you have ever made.
I would suggest that Brady never threw to Welker in triple coverage (duh because welker has never been triple covered) or not thrown to receiver with no one within five yards of him if he was in his progression before where the ball went.
Do you think the passing game operates with Brady dropping back surveying all receivers and picking which one to throw to? It sounds like it, and of course nothing could be further from the truth.



Of course it does. You diminish what Welker produced with all of your comments in this post, saying Brady favored him incorrectly, and his catches were gifts, not earned.
You are basically saying Welker made Brady do stupid things, and Welker didn't deserve to get the ball thrown to him as often as it was.
Of course your comments diminish him.
Interesting you make them when he is a Bronco.



Again, totally ignorant. The open man has always been Bradys favorite receviver. The throw distribution just tells you who the open man is. Any player getting open as much as welker would have seen the ball as much.



Please find me one example of anyone on this board saying Welker is better than Fitzgerald or Johnson. You either making this up, or have a bad memory.



If Welker plays like he has, he will be open and will get the ball.
The difference in receptions will be how often he is later in the progressions than other receivers who get open. Its that simple. And if you get open better than anyone else, you are higher in the progressions.
If Brandon Stokely got open as often as Welker last year, he would have caught close to as many passes. He didn't because he couldn't get open that much.

You belittle that talent, which may be the most critical talent in a WR, by saying Brady just arbitrarily threw to him, because he didn't want to throw to open receivers.

I will respond to you how everyone should respond to you on this board:

Yes Andy, you are right. You are always right. Once again you proved you are far superior to all others on this board. Thank you for pointing out what an ignorant fool I and the rest of this board are for disagreeing with you. I can say that I and everyone else on this board are better human beings just being exposed to you.

I am done dealing with your arrogance and condensation.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Mankins, Wendell, Welker land on CBS Sports' annual most overrated or underrated

I don't think the idea is for Denver to reduce the roles of the TE's or the downfield receivers. Welker is clearly a significant upgrade to Stokely, and should have more than Stokely's 45 receptions, but there seems to be little reason to expect over 100 catches.

BTW, Manning is lobbying to have Stokely re-signed as his #4 wide receiver.

I suppose the offense could work out in 90 catches each for Welker, Thomas, Decker and the TE's. That's 360 without counting the running backs and the #4 WR. Manning is going to enjoy this season.

Of course we know there is no plan of who to give how many catches to.
Welker will get his catches unless his level of play slips.