Anyone Else Think Connor Barwin Is Overrated?

[tanked_as_usual]

I'm not saying the pats should take him at #23, but if they do, it is because they are confident in his ability to get up to their speed

 

[bakes781]

(BTW, weakness setting the edge against the run is definitely a strike against Barwin, but it's also a strike against English, Maybin, Johnson, Matthews, etc. Seems to come with the territory.)

I'd have to strongly disagree with that. On NFLNetwork, Mayock cited examples where he excelled at just that.

 

[Metaphors]

I don't think Barwin is overrated...just that he is difficult to rate at all. He has a fairly limited amount of game tape to go on and about half of those games were against weak competition. In the big games he did have, they generally weren't his best efforts.

So you have workouts that show he is an elite athlete, but games tapes where that doesn't translate to the field (UConn, Oklahoma, Louisville, WVU). You have some tapes with outstanding results (Pitt, Rutgers, USF) but you have a handful of games with 1 or fewer solo tackles.

If you had 2 or 3 years of game tape to evaluate, you could probably get a better feel for how he would translate to the NFL in general and the Pats in particular. So he is your typical boom-or-bust candidate. He could work out to be a disruptive force that changes games with big plays, or he could get picked on so badly that you can't keep him on the field. I don't think that makes him overrated or significantly different from his peers in the draft class. The reports on his intangibles are positive enough that it mitigates his downside a bit.

 

[jefmblrd]

I'd love to see Barwin come to the Pats, but mid second round might be a fair place to pick him up. Drafting him at 23 would be a reach.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Overrated by who? Most of the rankings have him as a high to mid 2nd rounder, some maybe late 1st rounder.

If he is drafted in the 2nd round, I would say that is just about right. I would not use #23 on him, I could use #34 on him but #47 would be just about right, IMO.

There has been a lot of hype about him and I'm not even including people on this board. In about 2 weeks we will see the dust settle on many of these prospects and I don't think he will be taken in the 1st round.

Thats exactly where I am with him too .. id like us to go after an OT in the first and see where Barwin and Delmas/Chung are in the second

 

[Revman]

I wouldn't call it overrated. I would say that he is victim of fan excitement. I said the same thing two weeks ago. Barwin is in reality a good type pick for round 2 late to round 3. Very athletic-but when ahs he played enough at one position to make him an elite prospect. TE-raw. OLB- raw. If given a round one grade- he is a reach. If given a round 2-3 he becomes a mild surprise once he gains experience.

 

[maverick4]

First of all, NONE of the sites i've looked at say that Barwin gets pushed back "Beisel style". That is you taking out your arse. Kinda like you did with McDaniels... .

Now you want to bring McDaniels into this, to somehow discredit my assessment of Barwin? You are a one-trick pony DaBruinz, you were a lot better before when you didn't resort to ad hominem to any poster who disagreed with you. Too bad you've been running the same TIRED ad-hominem act for years now.

I have long said McDaniels is inexperienced, over his head with a big ego, and lacks situational awareness, and ALL of those traits are popping up and being repeated now over in Denver. Only complete homers like yourself refuse to acknowledge this. Please reply now, as you do to every other poster here, in a condescending way to pretend you know more than others, when you're just another loud arse on the board.

Most of you are so sad over losing Vrabel that you're going nuts over a prospect claiming to be Vrabel 2.0. From what I'm seeing, he's NOTHING like Vrabel as a football player aside from the fact that both can play a little TE.

 

[maverick4]

I wouldn't call it overrated. I would say that he is victim of fan excitement. I said the same thing two weeks ago. Barwin is in reality a good type pick for round 2 late to round 3. Very athletic-but when ahs he played enough at one position to make him an elite prospect. TE-raw. OLB- raw. If given a round one grade- he is a reach. If given a round 2-3 he becomes a mild surprise once he gains experience.

Matt Jones is another athletic freak who shot up the draft boards for his natural athletic ability, saying all the right things at the right time, and with the allure of versatility. Drew Henson was an athletic multi-sport freak who also didn't pan out, partly because he didn't focus on any one sport/position.

Raw athletic prowess is no substitute for demonstrated and learned performance on the field. It takes many repetitions and time in order to become an elite performer whether it be athletics, academia, music, art, etc. Go read Malcolm Gladwell's recent book on the subject. You can't just show up for one year based on pure athletic talent, and then expect to be a starting NFL defensive player without many years of learning and practice.

 

[MetalBleachers]

Most of you are so sad over losing Vrabel that you're going nuts over a prospect claiming to be Vrabel 2.0. From what I'm seeing, he's NOTHING like Vrabel as a football player aside from the fact that both can play a little TE.

Thanks for spelling out my emotions for me. I was confused.

Barwin's a college DE with a knack for getting to the quarterback, much like Vrabel, but you bring up a good question: If Barwin didn't start regularly until year 4 of his career, but helped his team win a Super Bowl in that year, would he still be a reach? A late bloomer?

What are you looking for in a first-round pick in terms of contributions that will be available at 23? (I'm not being rhetorical; i'd like to hear answers to that.)

 

[mayoclinic]

Overrated by who? Most of the rankings have him as a high to mid 2nd rounder, some maybe late 1st rounder.

If he is drafted in the 2nd round, I would say that is just about right. I would not use #23 on him, I could use #34 on him but #47 would be just about right, IMO.

There has been a lot of hype about him and I'm not even including people on this board. In about 2 weeks we will see the dust settle on many of these prospects and I don't think he will be taken in the 1st round.

Boy, I hope you are right. I would love for Barwin to settle down as a solid 2nd round pick - nothing more, nothing less. I'd be thrilled to get him at 47, not to mention 58, and use the higher picks on other prospects.

I don't think we know right now what will happen. It's quite possible that you are right and that all of the combine/pro day hysteria will subside a bit and Barwin will remain a solid 2nd round pick. It's also possible that he has a Mayo or Ware-like rise into the first half of the 1st round - not particularly likely, but possible. If I had to guess, I'd split the difference and call him a late 1st/early 2nd round guy, but it's just a guess, nothing more.

The same is true of a lot of prospects we've been discussing - Clay Matthews, Larry English, William Beatty, Louis Delmas, Jarron Gilbert, Hakeem Nicks. This is a particularly deep draft without a huge amount of separation. All of those guys could easily go in the 1st round, or equally easily fall to the 2nd.

 

[maverick4]

It's also possible that he has a Mayo or Ware-like rise into the first half of the 1st round - not particularly likely, but possible. .

There is a difference between guys like Ware/Mayo or Matt Jones/Drew Henson/Vernon Davis, and that is production. The former were big producers who under closer scrutiny rose pre-draft, whereas the latter were raw athletic, versatile freaks with the promise of potential based on limited production. The latter very rarely are worth the high picks used on them. I doubt most people here think Ben Watson was worth a 1st rounder.

 

[DaBruinz]

Now you want to bring McDaniels into this, to somehow discredit my assessment of Barwin? I have long said McDaniels is inexperienced, over his head, and lacks situational awareness, and ALL of those traits are popping up and being repeated now over in Denver. Only complete homers like yourself refuse to acknowledge this. Please reply now, as you do to every other poster here, in a condescending way to pretend you know more than others, when you're just another loud arse on the board.

Most of you are so sad over losing Vrabel that you're going nuts over a prospect claiming to be Vrabel 2.0. From what I'm seeing, he's NOTHING like Vrabel as a football player aside from the fact that both can play a little TE.

Only haters like yourself believe everything that the Media is saying about what is going on in Denver. First off, its come out that neither McDaniel nor the GM were actually shopping Cutler and that Tampa inquired as part of a three way with the idea that McDaniels would prefer Cassel over Cutler. Its also well known that Mike Shanahan was Cutler's security blanket. Now Cutler has to man up and he doesn't like having to do it. So he's whining about it. The BS about the locker-room being upset over the cutting of Leach is just hilarious. Once Paxton gets settled in, I am sure that the guys there will be just fine with him. If they aren't, they're idiots because Paxton is a great guy and a great team player. Not to mention he was a locker-room leader for the Pats.

As for my remarks, I only reply with condescending remarks to those who've earned it. But, as you like to do, you exaggerate the truth beyond recognition in hopes that someone might believe your crap.

The only loud arse here is you. Because your incapable of making an assessment without exaggerating it to the utmost extreme. Hell, you've down right lied in some of your assessments and been taken to task for it, not just by myself, but plenty of other posters on here as well.

As for your assinine claims that Barwin is nothing like Vrabel except that they both played a little TE, could you be any farther from the truth? The only difference, right now, between Barwin and Vrabel is that Vrabel had 4 years starting at DE while Barwin had 1. Barwin and Vrabel are both TEAM players. Barwin is actually more athletically gifted than Vrabel. Barwin put up more sacks in his 1st season at DE than Vrabel did.

BTW, I also find it pretty hilarious that you reply to me, but what Box said was far more of a slap in your face.

 

[BPF]

Heck, I'm one of the folks dreaming of Barwin at #23, and even I think he's overrated! I'm not comfortable taking him that high, I just suspect it's necessary. And I'd gnash my teeth and do it because I'm greedy. I want that impact OLB who has to be accounted for on every play, and he looks like my best bet to get one.

(BTW, weakness setting the edge against the run is definitely a strike against Barwin, but it's also a strike against English, Maybin, Johnson, Matthews, etc. Seems to come with the territory.)

I agree with most of what you wrote with the big exception of English's ability to leverage the edge, that is one of his big strengths and why people like Mayock have him rated as a top 20 prospect and why some have compared him to LaMarr Woodley.

 

[maverick4]

Keep it coming mav.

Thanks, I will. I love your opinions too, perhaps you'll actually be accurate on one of your draft assessments one of these days...

 

[mayoclinic]

Heck, I'm one of the folks dreaming of Barwin at #23, and even I think he's overrated! I'm not comfortable taking him that high, I just suspect it's necessary. And I'd gnash my teeth and do it because I'm greedy. I want that impact OLB who has to be accounted for on every play, and he looks like my best bet to get one.

While I would much rather get Barwin in the 2nd than in the 1st round, I would say that he is one of the few prospects that I've gotten really excited about in the past 5-6 years. Maybe I'm delusional, but just as Mayo seemed to magically emerge and offer the perfect package at WILB last year just as we had a top-10 pick to get him, Barwin has emerged this year as my favorite 3-4 OLB candidate since David Pollack and DeMarcus Ware in 2005.

It's not that often that I get totally enamored of a prospect. The ones that really got me excited (all on defense, since that's my thing) since 2003 were:

2003 - Troy Polamalu. I thought he would become exactly what he has become. Warren's been great, but I still dream about what if we'd taken Polamalu at 13.
2004 - Vince Wilfork and Karlos Dansby. I never thought we'd actually get Wilfork, and I'm still pissed that we didn't end up with both of them.
2005 - DeMarcus Ware and David Pollack. I wanted one of those guys so badly that year (especially Pollack) to be that "impact OLB who has to be accounted for on every play".
2006 - Haloti Ngata. I thought he was an athletic freak.
2007 - no one really stood out to me that year.
2008 - Mayo and DRC. We had to pick between them, and I'm satisfied with the one we got.
2009 - BJ Raji, Aaron Curry, Barwin, and Louis Delmas. I was salivating about Curry back in September when he was still a 2nd round pick on most boards. I think Raji is another Ngata. I think Delmas could be another Polamalu. And I think that Barwin could be what I was hoping David Pollack would be in 2005.

Is there some wishful thinking in this? Absolutely. But that's essentially 12 defensive prospects in 6 years who have really excited me, and all of the ones so far in the NFL have done pretty well (except for Pollack, who was sidelined by injury).

What is exceptional to me about this year is that we actually have a good shot at landing 2 of those prospects in Barwin and Delmas. Raji and Curry are out of reach, just like Ware, Pollack and Ngata were. I'm still pissed that we blew the opportunity to get Dansby, who could have been our SILB for a decade (and to my mind is the ideal SILB candidate to play next to Mayo), and I don't want to blow the chance to get 2 more of those guys. So I'm willing to "reach" for them. I could be wrong about both, but there it is.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

i agree with you mav. i think barwin is overrated especially here on this forum. it seems a few people fall in love with a guy and then everyone else starts to fall in line.

every year there are guys that are victims of the hype machine like gholston was last year. he showed he was a physical specimen in workouts and the combine, but he wasn't even good enough to be on the jets gameday roster for most of the year. you'd think a guy drafted 6 overall with that freakish body/athleticism would at least be able to play on special teams or be brought in on 3rd downs to solely rush the qb.

i'm not saying barwin will not be good or isn't a good prospect, but i do agree that he is overrated.

 

[maverick4]

While I would much rather get Barwin in the 2nd than in the 1st round, I would say that he is one of the few prospects that I've gotten really excited about in the past 5-6 years. .

Based on your early body of work on this forum, to me that means a lot.

But of those players you listed, Barwin is one of the few with a very limited record in college, and the history of conversion-type or huge upside without the stats to back them up kind of players, is horrible. What makes you so sure Barwin isn't a project who is going to take at least 3-4 years to become a starter?

 

[patchick]

There is a difference between guys like Ware/Mayo or Matt Jones/Drew Henson/Vernon Davis, and that is production.

A little off topic, but there seems to be a growing myth that Vernon Davis was nothing but a weight room phenomenon. In fact:

Consensus All-American and All-Atlantic Coast Conference first-team selection...Finalist for the Mackey Award, given to the nation's top tight end...Started every game, leading the team with 51 receptions and the conference with 871 receiving yards (17.1 avg)

As for the others, Matt Jones is a whole different animal, a projection from QB. It was flat-out bizarre that a team spent a 1st on him. And Drew Henson wasn't a measurables phenomenon at all...and wasn't drafted until round 6. For a closer (unfavorable) comparison to Barwin, you might look at some of the players who suddenly became left tackles as college seniors and were drafted for their athleticism at that position, like Guy Whimper or Joe Toledo.

 

[mayoclinic]

Based on your early body of work on this forum, to me that means a lot.

But of those players you listed, Barwin is one of the few with a very limited record in college, and the history of conversion-type or huge upside without the stats to back them up kind of players, is horrible. What makes you so sure Barwin isn't a project who is going to take at least 3-4 years to become a starter?

I'm not sure. I wish I could be. But I've been particularly impressed how quickly Barwin seems to be able to make adjustments and learn new skills/positions. He walked on to the basketball team and was able to contribute immediately. He changed positions and led the conference in sacks his first year. He seems to be a quick study intellectually as well as very gifted physically. And he seems to thrive on the challenge of taking on new skills. Listen to his interview from his pro day, and he is obviously excited about applying his physical skills to new challenges.

Jays52 posted an analogy to Antonio Gates at TE in another thread a few days ago. Barwin just seems to have that Gates-like athleticism and ability to pick up a position effortlessly. It's partly because of his experience playing in space (in basketball and as a TE) and partly because of his fluidity in changing sports and positions that I think he may make the transition to 3-4 OBL much faster than normally expected, and much faster than someone like Everette Brown or Larry English who has never really had to change positions. But it's just a guess, and I readily admit that it's easy to fall in love with the people you fall in love with.

 

[patchick]

I'd have to strongly disagree with that. On NFLNetwork, Mayock cited examples where he excelled at just that.

Sorry, I shouldn't have lumped all the issues against the run together. In the case of English the usual complaint isn't strength setting the edge, it's that he took himself out of a lot of running plays altogether by charging straight at the QB no matter what.