4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[Synovia]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Everyone supporting BB misses a key point completely. You can't just throw out that stat and assume it applies at a 65% rate. There's a difference in the intensity level on the field between converting 4th and 2 in the first quarter on an opponents 40 in a 0-0 game and 4th and 2 inside your own 30 with 2 minutes to go to decide a game. Defenses will be tougher to get that first down against when that one play will decide the game in the situation the Pats were in.

Again, its being accounted for. 4th and 2 converts at over 60% in game ending situations. IE, 4th quarter, less then 3 minutes, 1 score games.

 

[Nunchucks]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The problem is that you basing the probabilities on made up numbers. I mean, I could just say that Peyton Manning has a 5% chance of scoring on a long field in under 2 minutes and that is just as accurate as saying that the colts have a 40 % chance of both stopping a a 4th down play and then scoring a touchdown from the 30.

These are unknown probabilities and pretending to know them based on past numbers is lying with statistics.

 

[Synovia]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The statistics are flawed. Does it take into consideration the formation the team is in? Going for it on 4th and 2 when you are in a pass formation is different from going for it when you do a play action or a RB screen.

Again, thats got nothing to do with whether or not it was right to go for it.


It is possible (and in my opinion, it is the case) that Bellichick was right to go for it, but did a bad job picking the play.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Ah Deus, moving the goal posts again. This is a favorite tactic of yours, but it won't work here. Yes, BB was stupid to pass on 3d and 2 if it was his plan to go on 4th down. No, that's not what we're arguing about in this thread. Obviously, you have to take into account other things than probabilities, but when you're trying to make decisions to win games, the potentially bruised egos of your players should not be an overriding factor. Now, if you want to debate his overall strategy (i.e., pass on 3rd down, pass on 4th out of empty backfield, not intentionally giving up a quick TD), I probably won't argue with you.

There's no moving of the goalposts, as you well know. And anyone who doesn't take the psyche, a/k/a "bruised egos" of the players is a complete idiot.

 

[Synovia]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The problem is that you basing the probabilities on made up numbers. I mean, I could just say that Peyton Manning has a 5% chance of scoring on a long field in under 2 minutes and that is just as accurate as saying that the colts have a 40 % chance of both stopping a a 4th down play and then scoring a touchdown from the 30.

These are unknown probabilities and pretending to know them based on past numbers is lying with statistics.

So then, how do we decide if it was the correct decision? By using our gut? By asking Peter king? Sheep's entrails?

 

[sanvara]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

What most other coaches do is irrelevant. Most other coaches punt there not because they think it'll make them win, but so they can't be called out if they fail.

Any coach that makes this call would be called out whether he failed or succeeded. A bad decision isn't a good decision just because you made the play.

 

[Synovia]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

There's no moving of the goalposts, as you well know.

Thats funny, it seems to be a common past time of yours.


Play selection, and whether or not going for it is wise, are two completely different decisions, and one being wrong does not proclude the other one from being right.


Its amazing how insulting you get, and how dishonest when you realize you're wrong.

 

[Synovia]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Any coach that makes this call would be called out whether he failed or succeeded. A bad decision isn't a good decision just because you made the play.

Wrong. Bellichick has gone for it on 4th down late in games on his side of the field probably a dozen times before. This is the first time he hasn't converted.

The safety in Denver (for which hes claimed a genius) was WAY more risky than this.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I haven't done the math, but I think the net effect of changing the quarterbacks is zero, or close to it. The reason is that the negative point value you assign to "Team X 30 yds from the end zone" increases with Manning, but so does the negative point value you assign to "Team X 70 yds from the end zone". When you factor in the probabilities of these events with the expected point value of picking up the first down, I believe they cancel each other out. I am willing to be corrected here, but you will have to show me how I'm wrong mathematically - jumping up and down and making conclusive statements will not persuade me.

for the record, I have remained seated the entire time...

but, here is my point, you say you haven't done the math...my bet is, no one has, regarding my example of the Manning v. Russell scenarios, or, more to the point, the situation faced by the Pats last night. Yet, you accuse me of being the one making "conclusive statements."
I understand about probabilities and statistics. Trust me, I do.
But, and now you may correct me if I am wrong, the statistics you cite take into account all attempts on 4th down from your own 30 with 2 minutes left and a six point lead...of which there have been exactly how many in your lifetime? Two? I mean, I have been watching football for 40+ years (I'm an old @#$$#, I admit it), and I can't ever recall seeing that done before. So, how can you possibly say with any confidence that in that situation a team makes the first down "X"% of the time?
then, throw in the factors such as , oh, just to pick a few, crowd noise, momentum, a lucky or not so lucky jump on the ball by the safety, a bad spot by the official...and you want me to accept your statistical argument?

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

There's no moving of the goalposts, as you well know. And anyone who doesn't take the psyche, a/k/a "bruised egos" of the players is a complete idiot.

Then BB is an idiot. See Thomas, Adalius; Bledsoe, Drew; Sanders, James, and countless others.

 

[SVN]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

i think the timeout managment was critical..last in indy he called atimeout when they got a first on 4th and goal. this yr we wasted two timeouts on a 4th down play when we didnt get it.
too much indecisiveness unlilke BB.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Then BB is an idiot. See Thomas, Adalius; Bledsoe, Drew; Sanders, James, and countless others.

If you think he isn't taking psyches into account when he's doing that, you're welcome to that opinion. I'm confident that has them very much in mind.

However, since you are disregarding the impact of such things, perhaps you can explain why Patriots players look for motivation in opponent comments, why the team got absolutely pasted 31-0 by the Bills after the Milloy incident and then returned the favor later in the season, etc....

 

[VJCPatriot]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Wrong. Bellichick has gone for it on 4th down late in games on his side of the field probably a dozen times before. This is the first time he hasn't converted.

The safety in Denver (for which hes claimed a genius) was WAY more risky than this.

The safety was not risky at all. The reason the safety was done in the first place was to ensure good field position. The 2 pts did not hurt the Pats, and being able to kickoff and move the ball far away from the goal made it that more difficult for the other team to score a TD to beat us.

This 4th down call has no correlation WHATSOEVER with the intentional safety so let's not pretend that it does.

If the ball is on our 9yrd line and we are 4th and 2, do we still go for it because 65% of the time, we should get the 1st down? NO! We don't do that because we also have to factor risk and reward into our analysis.

Bingo. You have to factor the risk of NOT converting that 4th and 2. And the risk was too high. Punt and let the defense try to prove itself for 70-80 yards.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

There is no way to "adjust the numbers". The bottom line is that it was a bad call because of all the circumstances surrounding the call. When your statistic takes into account the stupidity of passing it on 3rd down if the team was going to go for it on 4th down, the impact, both mentally and physically of losing the timeout, the impact upon the defensive psyche of having to face Manning starting from the 30 after the coach just threw that defense under the bus by going for it on 4th down, etc... then, and only then, will you be able to get something near an accurate statistic. Good luck with that.

My point exactly.
In one of the earlier posts one of the stats guys said there is a 65% chance of success converting a 4th and 2.
But, how many 4th and twos have you, DI, in the time you have been watching football, seen from your own 28 yard line, with two minutes to go, a six point lead, in a noisy dome, with Manning the opposing QB. (In the interest of time, I will spare you any further qualifications)
I will pause for a second while you tally them all up.
Okay, so the universe of such plays is...one. Agreed? And yet, from that overwhelming statistical sample, the stats guys will still say, there is a 65% chance of success.
Based on what????

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

for the record, I have remained seated the entire time...

but, here is my point, you say you haven't done the math...my bet is, no one has, regarding my example of the Manning v. Russell scenarios, or, more to the point, the situation faced by the Pats last night. Yet, you accuse me of being the one making "conclusive statements."
I understand about probabilities and statistics. Trust me, I do.
But, and now you may correct me if I am wrong, the statistics you cite take into account all attempts on 4th down from your own 30 with 2 minutes left and a six point lead...of which there have been exactly how many in your lifetime? Two? I mean, I have been watching football for 40+ years (I'm an old @#$$#, I admit it), and I can't ever recall seeing that done before. So, how can you possibly say with any confidence that in that situation a team makes the first down "X"% of the time?
then, throw in the factors such as , oh, just to pick a few, crowd noise, momentum, a lucky or not so lucky jump on the ball by the safety, a bad spot by the official...and you want me to accept your statistical argument?

Yeah, but I still think you're missing the point. Point is, humans can make rough estimates of these numbers based on experience and all the other factors you mention in arriving at a decision. You may disagree with the relative values BB subconsciously assigned to the various probabilities, but, if he determined them to be in his favor, what is there to argue about, unless you're saying that you're weighing of the probabilities is objectively better than his (which is not impossible, but doubtful, given his experience and knowledge of his players)? My mathematical arguments are in response to those who say that there is no mathematical justification for these things. Clearly, there is, and all rational decision making is based on this idea.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

you probably also disagree that 2+2 = 4

I mean, probabilities aren't grey or up for debate, it's math. once you go with the assumptions you can't just disagree with what the equation spits out

there you go again. probabilities of the type you are discussing ARE grey and are indeed up for debate. In this case, for the third or so time, there is no demonstrated or, more to the point, demonstrable correlation between the generic model that "spit out" the 60% "probability" of gaining 1.5 or more yards on that play and the actual situation on the field. and, to make the point as clearly as possible, that same model would say that you make the same decision if it's Trent Edwards and the Bills on the other side of the ball...as in "I don't think so."

also, good models don't "spit out" numbers, they generate a Distribution of possible outcomes with a clearly defined "Expected Outcome" and an articulated Standard Deviation around that Outcome. decision making is not about taking "60%" and using it to make a decision, but about examining the structure of the curve of that Distribution, understanding the Risk Profile of the person making the decision and then, and only then, using the data to HELP make a decision.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

If you think he isn't taking psyches into account when he's doing that, you're welcome to that opinion. I'm confident that has them very much in mind.

However, since you are disregarding the impact of such things, perhaps you can explain why Patriots players look for motivation in opponent comments, why the team got absolutely pasted 31-0 by the Bills after the Milloy incident and then returned the favor later in the season, etc....

I am not going to accept your invitation to this Tangent.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

the "bruised defensive ego" argument is dumb at face value. you don't call plays to make players happy, you calls plays to win. everyone here hates TO and QB's bending over backwards to please him, but they want to make sure their defensive players feelings are hurt? please. these guys are pros and in the heat of the moment they don't have time to have their feelings hurt

I mean, didn't BB give his defense the ultimate vote of confidence by challenging them to stop the Colts on a short field?

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I am not going to accept your invitation to this Tangent.

Given that you were the one who made it an issue by questioning something so obvious, I'd say that this is a telling statement on your part.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

the "bruised defensive ego" argument is dumb at face value. you don't call plays to make players happy, you calls plays to win. everyone here hates TO and QB's bending over backwards to please him, but they want to make sure their defensive players feelings are hurt? please. these guys are pros and in the heat of the moment they don't have time to have their feelings hurt

I mean, didn't BB give his defense the ultimate vote of confidence by challenging them to stop the Colts on a short field?

Ok, so you've never played a single moment of competitive sports, then?