4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

IMO a bizarre decision is one that has no senisble rationale behind it. What bizzare decisions are your referring to, Deus?

That's not what bizarre means.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I have a full understanding of probability. The probability that Manning will drive 80 yards for a touchdown is MUCH less than the probability of him driving 30 yard for the score. Why BB would even take the chance of giving Manning a short field is beyond me since BB is generally the kind of guy that wonders whether or not the juice is worth the squeeze (which it pretty clearly wasn't). But hey, we all know that you're in favor of the call. We get it. But we saw what happened as a result and we lost. Best of luck arguing around that!

You and Mav4 are brothers from another mother. Making conclusive statements louder and louder without providing any supporting evidence or logic is an ineffective way of making your point.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

dude everyone gets this

what you don't get is that it's a grossly inaccurate way of looking at the situation

it's explained again and again how you are looking at it incorrectly but you're not capable of understanding simple probabilities.

go do something else.

Wow....you really believe that?

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Wow....you really believe that?

obviously yes. anyone with a brain should be able to see that

 

[SoCal Bong]

Re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30

If the Pats knew they'd be going for it on 4th, then they should have run the ball up the middle on 3rd down which would also take the clock down to the 2:00 warning which I realize probably would not have made a difference but it may have set up a shorter 4th down play and another run/QB sneak.

The bobbling call and spot was made by a ref who was looking at Faulk's back. He was not able to see that Faulk clearly possessed the ball as soon as it got to his chest and that he was not bobbling the ball all the way down to the ground as he probably assumed based on the spot. Other officials should have been able to see that and overruled him or at least discussed that instead of just allowing him to spot the ball without any input on the biggest play of the game.

 

[RobertWeathers]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

That's not what bizarre means.

Fine.

bizarre - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

This team has operated in the same fashion both on and off the field since BB came here. You are off-base.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I challenge you to explain what I'm saying

Yes. You said that the Pats had a 60% chance of getting the first down and a 55% chance of winning the game after punting it, which figured into Belichick's decision of going for it. I fully understand your statistics. What I'm saying is that the juice was not worth the squeeze for a 60% chance of getting the first down. The 40% chance, in this case, that you do not get it is too big of an opportunity to give a Peyton Manning (of all people)... ESPECIALLY when you have no timeouts.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You and Mav4 are brothers from another mother. Making conclusive statements louder and louder without providing any supporting evidence or logic is an ineffective way of making your point.

This is actually the first thing that me and maverick have EVER agreed on. So that's an idiotic assumption. And I have provided the same evidence time after time. If we go for it, and do not make it, we give Manning the ball at our own 30. If we punt it, we send them back to the Colts 30. Even makewayhomer has even stated that it would have been much, MUCH harder for Manning to score from his own 30 than it would have been fro our 30. What is so difficult to understand about this? Would you like me to make the font larger so it's easier to read?

 

[aluminum seats]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

That's not what bizarre means.

Don't be obtuse, you know what he meant.

 

[Keep Up With The Joneses]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I've spent too much time thinking about this. My first reaction was that BB was an idiot. But the more I thought about it the more it made sense. If they get the first (which I think they did: not having any timeouts left to challenge the call is the real coaching mistake here) the game is essentially over. If they punted the ball, the Colts (whose offense had really heated up) have the 2-minute warning, plus their timeouts, and most likely score, leaving no time left on the clock.

Blowing the first down at the 30 left open the possibility that if the Colts drive that short field, there might be some time left for an answer from the Pats.

Again, I really think clock management and having no timeouts left was the real mistake, not the 4th down call.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You and Mav4 are brothers from another mother. Making conclusive statements louder and louder without providing any supporting evidence or logic is an ineffective way of making your point.

His point is, its worse to give Manning a short field instead of a long field to go for a TD, when there are only 2 mins left in the game.
How anyone can argue that point is simply beyond me.
And, please, I understand all about statistical analysis, and the percentage of times the 4th down try will succeed v. the percentage of times a team will drive for a TD with 70 yds to go, blah, blah, blah.
But, the statistics you cite do NOT account for the thousands of human variables, for example, having Peyton Manning at QB as opposed to, say, Jamarcus Russell.
If the Pats had been playing the Raiders, your statistics (the probablilities of success on the 4th down try, etc) dont change. But, do you truly believe the Pats would not have punted in that exact situation if they were playing the raiders instead of the colts?

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Fine.

bizarre - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

This team has operated in the same fashion both on and off the field since BB came here. You are off-base.

This team made a lot of unusual decisions this offseason. Anyone who is so far in the tank for Belichick that they can't admit something that obvious, even if they like those moves that were made, is simply not going to be able to carry on a worthwhile discussion on the matter.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Yes. You said that the Pats had a 60% chance of getting the first down and a 55% chance of winning the game after punting it, which figured into Belichick's decision of going for it. I fully understand your statistics. What I'm saying is that the juice was not worth the squeeze for a 60% chance of getting the first down. The 40% chance, in this case, that you do not get it is too big of an opportunity to give a Peyton Manning (of all people)... ESPECIALLY when you have no timeouts.

you probably also disagree that 2+2 = 4

I mean, probabilities aren't grey or up for debate, it's math. once you go with the assumptions you can't just disagree with what the equation spits out

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Even makewayhomer has even stated that it would have been much, MUCH harder for Manning to score from his own 30 than it would have been fro our 30. What is so difficult to understand about this? Would you like me to make the font larger so it's easier to read?

This response makes it clear that you will not be able to understand makeway's argument, no matter how clearly he explains it to you. I'm not sure what else to say.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

obviously yes. anyone with a brain should be able to see that

Having a brain isn't enough. Try using it once in a while...you will be amazed at the difference.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Belichick has math on his side

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Don't be obtuse, you know what he meant.

I know precisely what he meant. He defined it for us, and it was not the proper definition of the word:

IMO a bizarre decision is one that has no senisble rationale behind it

I wasn't being obtuse. When you change the definition of a word, you change the parameters of the discussion involving that word. Your response was just idiocy.

 

[aluminum seats]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I know precisely what he meant. He defined it for us, and it was not the proper definition of the word:



I wasn't being obtuse. When you change the definition of a word, you change the parameters of the discussion involving that word. Your response was just idiocy.

No, you were just being a little pissy *****.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

This response makes it clear that you will not be able to understand makeway's argument, no matter how clearly he explains it to you. I'm not sure what else to say.

You got me. I just showed that I clearly understand his original post and that I think that a 40% chance of Manning getting the ball back at our 30 is too big of a one. Once again, the juice was not worth the squeeze. This response makes it clear that you will not be able to understand my argument, no matter how clearly I explain it to you. I'm not sure what else to say.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

This response makes it clear that you will not be able to understand makeway's argument, no matter how clearly he explains it to you. I'm not sure what else to say.

Deriding the use of the statistics, which don't adjust for the circumstances of a particular game, is not the same as failing to understand those statistics.