4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[PatsFanSince74]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Then BB would have instructed the D to let them score because it was inevitable and we needed the time...
Don't think what BB was thinking...He was just greedy and trusted the O too much.

that's very possible, but the logic of his decision is then to let the Colts score on their first play and give the ball back to Tommy with 1:30 left to get Ghost into FG position, something Brady's done many times before.

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Why going for it was right

We don't end the game with a first down. They have one timeout left and the two minute warning is stopping the clock on first down.

thats true, we would have punted and given the ball back to the Colts with something like 25 seconds left and no TO's left. it would have been all but over

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Why going for it was right

See above.

I think you are overthinking this.

just b/c quantum computing isn't installed in everyone's helmets doesn't mean that they don't use simple probabilities like this to make decisions.

as I said above, why do teams tend to pass on 3rd and long instead of run? b/c they know the expected outcome of the pass is better as is the chance on converting the first down

why do teams not kick 70 yard FG's? b/c they know the odds of being successful are extremely small. they could even give you a % chance it matters if you asked, I'm sure BB knows.

why do teams not go for 2 point conversions more often? b/c they know the expected points from a PAT >> expected points from a 2 point attempt. (although, this one is very close and arguable, and a good example of probabilities in play)

in a similar way, BB knows the rough probabilities of going for it and the alternative outcomes. this doesn't take quantum computing, it takes simple scenario analysis.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Jeff Ma is smarter than you are and thinks going for it was correct

 

[dhamz]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I said it against Atlanta and I'll say it again here: It was a bad decision that shows absolutely no faith whatsoever in the defense. It worked against Atlanta and everybody thought he was a genius. It didn't work last night and now he is getting justified criticism.

Why other than the book says it is what he should do would showing faith in his defense been the right move there? That defense had allowed 14 points already in the quarter while giving up 2 80 yard drives that took 2 minutes each to the Colts offense.

 

[Urgent]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

A frustrating part of that ending was that we used to win all those games.

The Patten concussion with the ball rolling off his body out of bounds, gaining the first down, stopping the clock, and preventing a turnover.

The tuck rule.

St Louis kicks the ball out of bounds with 90 seconds remaining.

The false start against Baltimore, wiping out a bad play and enabling the comeback win.

The Patriots had a lot of bounces go their way.

Now Bill Buckner is calling out the plays.

 

[sanvara]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

It was a good call any way you look at it, if they make it (and they did, pis poor spot) how many of you castigating him would call him a genius, you cant have it both ways.

No, it was a bad decision either way.

I can't believe BB made that call. Mind boggling. It was like Manning had him psyched out. You have to force the Colts make multiple plays to win. By punting they Colts would have needed to string together more positive plays to win the game than by stopping a 4th and 2 inside the 30. Too many things can happen to stall a 65-70 yard drive to not make the Colts have to drive down the field. A sack, a holding call, a fumble, an interception, etc. And if they can drive that distance in 2 minutes they deserve the win and you congratulate them.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Re: Why going for it was right

I think you are overthinking this.

just b/c quantum computing isn't installed in everyone's helmets doesn't mean that they don't use simple probabilities like this to make decisions.

as I said above, why do teams tend to pass on 3rd and long instead of run? b/c they know the expected outcome of the pass is better as is the chance on converting the first down

why do teams not kick 70 yard FG's? b/c they know the odds of being successful are extremely small. they could even give you a % chance it matters if you asked, I'm sure BB knows.

why do teams not go for 2 point conversions more often? b/c they know the expected points from a PAT >> expected points from a 2 point attempt. (although, this one is very close and arguable, and a good example of probabilities in play)

in a similar way, BB knows the rough probabilities of going for it and the alternative outcomes. this doesn't take quantum computing, it takes simple scenario analysis.

i cited quantum computing simply because it would enable a guy in the booth to do a real analysis in about a second that takes into account the real variables without having to rent time on a Cray

my whole point is actually quite simple: if you're suggesting that Belichick is working from the computer in his amazing brain that processes his experience and knowledge of the game, then we have no argument and agree. if you're suggesting that a simplistic model like the one in the link you provided is useful in a meaningful way, we disagree. the quantum computing example was just to say that it's only that kind of technology which will mimic the mind of a man like Belichick or Lombardi or Brown or Walsh or Knoll, run a few hundred thousand scenarios and spit out an Expected Outcome and SD in such a way as to provide meaningful input for a meaningful decision in enough time to get off the next play...

and, BTW, nowhere in any of my posts out here in several threads today have I second guessed Belichick's decision; if his informed intuition based on his incomparable knowledge of the game said "Go for it," I've supported that since early this morning. my only argument has been that the full logic of his decision was to let the Colts score on their first play so Brady would get the ball with 1:30+ left and time to get Ghost in FG range.

 

[eagle eye]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Why other than the book says it is what he should do would showing faith in his defense been the right move there? That defense had allowed 14 points already in the quarter while giving up 2 80 yard drives that took 2 minutes each to the Colts offense.

One of which was the result of a pass interference call that shouldn't have been.

 

[abejarano12]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I think that it was the right call. The Colts last two drive were so quick that the D was gased. By going for it you keep the ball and better you chances of winning the game. Again It was the RIGHT call. After the game Brady and Faulk both said it was the players job to get the job done. They didn't this time and it cost them the game. I'am channeling some Herm Edwards but you play to win the game. I see nothing wrong in trusting your players to win. The players didn't get the job done. Yes losing to the Colts sucks. Another thing is the same sitution comes up next time the players will finish the job

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I'm as big of a BB fan as anyone. But this was indefensible. We all understand what he was thinking, but he got caught up in the game. It's clear by the play calling that he did not make the decision to go for it until after the 3rd down botched play.

Set aside our rose colored glasses for a minute. If Rex Ryan did this you'd be killing him for it. It was a bad move. You make Manning go 70 yards. All it takes is one holding penalty or bad throw and you win. That's setting aside the defense just stepping up and making 4 big stops in a row.

This is exactly right, on all points.
Because it is BB, many people are bending over backwards trying to make sense of it. I just feel it was a mistake by a great coach, he is allowed one or two a decade, I would think.
and, I think it is a mistake for exactly the reason above: with 30 yards to go, the Colts have no time worries and room for their own error(s), whereas the room for a defensive error is slim, if not non-existent. For example, if the Colts get called for holding , if they are on the Pats 15, they can still hit the endzone with two very do-able plays, say, a ten yard completion and then a 15 yard completion. Not so if they are on their own 40 yd line.
No one would be defending Rex Ryan or Mangini or any one of a dozen other coaches if they made teh exact same call.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

death wish from the pats 30 or the colts 30 at that point. Maybe you don't understand statistics and probabilities..too hard for you to understand?

I've passed many a Stats class. The fact of the matter is that, with no timeout, the juice wasn't worth the squeeze. BB's mantra as a head coach is that he very rarely leaves anything up to chance. Well, he left something up the chance last night when the referees incorrectly spotted the ball. The safer move would have been to punt it then turn up the pressure on Manning by making him have to drive the field. Instead, we gift wrapped it for him and he took it in. And to say that it would have been an equal death wish at the Colts 30 as opposed to our 30 is simply ******ed. What a dumbass statement.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

you have zero understanding of probabilities, and as such will never understand scenario analysis. best of luck!

I have a full understanding of probability. The probability that Manning will drive 80 yards for a touchdown is MUCH less than the probability of him driving 30 yard for the score. Why BB would even take the chance of giving Manning a short field is beyond me since BB is generally the kind of guy that wonders whether or not the juice is worth the squeeze (which it pretty clearly wasn't). But hey, we all know that you're in favor of the call. We get it. But we saw what happened as a result and we lost. Best of luck arguing around that!

 

[Mabeyitstrue]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I had a night to sleep on it and you know what? **** happens.......... the team needs to regroup and get back to work, its not the end of the season and we have a division to win.

My guess is we will play the Colt's in the playoffs and will have to beat them and the Ref's to win cause we are not going to get calls........

Colt's are a good team as it is, its almost impossible to beat them and the Ref's at the same time. All these phantom PI calls and bull**** forward progression is a joke its makes the NFL look bad.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

This is exactly right, on all points.
Because it is BB, many people are bending over backwards trying to make sense of it. I just feel it was a mistake by a great coach, he is allowed one or two a decade, I would think.
and, I think it is a mistake for exactly the reason above: with 30 yards to go, the Colts have no time worries and room for their own error(s), whereas the room for a defensive error is slim, if not non-existent. For example, if the Colts get called for holding , if they are on the Pats 15, they can still hit the endzone with two very do-able plays, say, a ten yard completion and then a 15 yard completion. Not so if they are on their own 40 yd line.
No one would be defending Rex Ryan or Mangini or any one of a dozen other coaches if they made teh exact same call.

Indeed, and it's a pathetic display. Then again, people have been doing it for a long time. Hell, they've been carrying his water full time ever since Pioli and McDaniels left and the offseason of bizarre decisions began.

 

[aluminum seats]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

This is exactly right, on all points.
Because it is BB, many people are bending over backwards trying to make sense of it. I just feel it was a mistake by a great coach, he is allowed one or two a decade, I would think.
and, I think it is a mistake for exactly the reason above: with 30 yards to go, the Colts have no time worries and room for their own error(s), whereas the room for a defensive error is slim, if not non-existent. For example, if the Colts get called for holding , if they are on the Pats 15, they can still hit the endzone with two very do-able plays, say, a ten yard completion and then a 15 yard completion. Not so if they are on their own 40 yd line.
No one would be defending Rex Ryan or Mangini or any one of a dozen other coaches if they made teh exact same call.

Wrong. There's a range of different takes here, and it's completely fair game to criticize the coaching re the time outs, play calling, etc. But as far as going for it, I was for it then and now. It was the right call, even if media morons like Dan Shaugnessey don't think so.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The probability that Manning will drive 80 yards for a touchdown is MUCH less than the probability of him driving 30 yard for the score.

dude everyone gets this

what you don't get is that it's a grossly inaccurate way of looking at the situation

it's explained again and again how you are looking at it incorrectly but you're not capable of understanding simple probabilities.

go do something else.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

dude everyone gets this

what you don't get is that it's a grossly inaccurate way of looking at the situation

it's explained again and again how you are looking at it incorrectly but you're not capable of understanding simple probabilities.

go do something else.

I fully get the ****ty explanation that you're trying to give because you're tanked on Belichick's Kool-Aid. My point is that the explanation sucks because BB should have never been going for it in the first place. Is that simple enough for you to understand or should I start talking in ebonics to dumb it down for you?

 

[RobertWeathers]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

offseason of bizarre decisions began.

IMO a bizarre decision is one that has no senisble rationale behind it. What bizzare decisions are your referring to, Deus?

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

I fully get the ****ty explanation that you're trying to give because you're tanked on Belichick's Kool-Aid. My point is that the explanation sucks because BB should have never been going for it in the first place. Is that simple enough for you to understand or should I start talking in ebonics to dumb it down for you?

I challenge you to explain what I'm saying