4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

My point exactly.
In one of the earlier posts one of the stats guys said there is a 65% chance of success converting a 4th and 2.
But, how many 4th and twos have you, DI, in the time you have been watching football, seen from your own 28 yard line, with two minutes to go, a six point lead, in a noisy dome, with Manning the opposing QB. (In the interest of time, I will spare you any further qualifications)
I will pause for a second while you tally them all up.
Okay, so the universe of such plays is...one. Agreed? And yet, from that overwhelming statistical sample, the stats guys will still say, there is a 65% chance of success.
Based on what????

The human mind is capable of making rough calculations as to probability to arrive at decisions. When it makes those calculations, the mind (if it is a sharp one) generally takes into account of all the factors you are describing. The math is a good place to start, but the mind of course makes the necessary adjustments.

 

[Synovia]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Bingo. You have to factor the risk of NOT converting that 4th and 2. And the risk was too high. Punt and let the defense try to prove itself for 70-80 yards.

That is being factored, despite you ignoring it.

The chance of them converting is roughly 60%.

The chance the colts score from the 30 is roughly 90%. The chance the colts score from their own 30 is roughly 70%.


Hence:

Chance of colts scoring if you go for it .40*.9 = .36

Chance of colts scoring if you punt = .70

Chance of Pats winning if they go for it : .60 + .40*.1= .64
Chance of Pats winning if they punt: .30


We're accounting for the chance that they don't convert. If they don't convert, you lose 90% of the time. The thing is, teams convert most of the time.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Ok, so you've never played a single moment of competitive sports, then?

this has nothing to do with nothing

I played football, yes

and it doesn't matter

DO YOUR JOB

 

[patsinthesnow]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Idk if anyone has posted this, but I think this is the ONLY reason he went for it.

When the pass fell incomplete on 3rd and 2 with about 2:30 left, Belichick had a flashback of the incomplete pass in the 2006 AFCCG to Brown with about 2:30left. I think he knew the defense would have collapsed.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

this has nothing to do with nothing

I played football, yes

and it doesn't matter

DO YOUR JOB

Right. That must be why teams use bulletin board fodder, pitchers use brushback pitches, hockey teams have brawlers on their rosters, etc.....

The mentality of the players has no impact at all upon games and execution of plays.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Ok, so you've never played a single moment of competitive sports, then?

So predictable Deus...your M.O. is:

1. State fallacial premise.
2. Lose argument because of faulty premise.
3. Move goalposts.
4. Resort to ad hominem attacks.

I think you're a smart guy, why do you torment us like this?

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Yeah, but I still think you're missing the point. Point is, humans can make rough estimates of these numbers based on experience and all the other factors you mention in arriving at a decision. You may disagree with the relative values BB subconsciously assigned to the various probabilities, but, if he determined them to be in his favor, what is there to argue about, unless you're saying that you're weighing of the probabilities is objectively better than his (which is not impossible, but doubtful, given his experience and knowledge of his players)? My mathematical arguments are in response to those who say that there is no mathematical justification for these things. Clearly, there is, and all rational decision making is based on this idea.

Letekro, I don't think I am missing yoour point..but I think you are dodging mine.
Let me first state, I love BB as a coach, and I don't think I am "objectively better" than him in wieghing football possibilities. But, he is human, and humans make mistakes, and I think he made one last night by givng Manning a short field rather than a long field.
I got into this discussion becasue the stats guys were saying, in effect, the stats show it was a good decision to go for it. (One poster even said, there are no grey areas in the stats...lol...at least you recogize that not to be the case.) The stats argument at some point rests upon the argument that probability of making it on a 4th and two is "X" %. Now, there are only two possibilities: that percentage rests upon some large sample, including all sorts of 4th down situations which are factually and demonstrably different than that faced by the Pats last night...in which case, they aren't a fair comparison...or, the sample is limited to a 4th down situation very similar to last nights...and if it is the latter, then it is a sample size of one or two, and therefore of no use statistically. either way, the stats in my opinion are useless.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

So predictable Deus...your M.O. is:

1. State fallacial premise.
2. Lose argument because of faulty premise.
3. Move goalposts.
4. Resort to ad hominem attacks.

I think you're a smart guy, why do you torment us like this?

Given that not a single one of those points are applicable to this thread, perhaps you should revisit your post.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Right. That must be why teams use bulletin board fodder, pitchers use brushback pitches, hockey teams have brawlers on their rosters, etc.....

The mentality of the players has no impact at all upon games and execution of plays.

if you believe that, then read this:

A handful of Patriots players last night said it did not shake their confidence -- cornerback Leigh Bodden said he believed it gave them more confidence, because it showed Belichick thought they could stop the Colts from the 30-yard line.

MORE confidence! MORE!

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

if you believe that, then read this:



MORE confidence! MORE!

Yes, because I expect that a Patriots player would come out and say something along the lines of

"Belichick just threw us under the bus. What the hell was he thinking? If Manning gets the ball at the 30 there, he scores about 99.999% of the time. You don't have faith in us stopping him from 65 yards away, so you're going to put us in a position where we've got to stop him from 30 yards away instead? Great job coach. Next time just shoot us in the head, because that will be quicker!".

Great point, really.

 

[VJCPatriot]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

That is being factored, despite you ignoring it.

The chance of them converting is roughly 60%.

The chance the colts score from the 30 is roughly 90%. The chance the colts score from their own 30 is roughly 70%.


Hence:

Chance of colts scoring if you go for it .40*.9 = .36

Chance of colts scoring if you punt = .70

Chance of Pats winning if they go for it : .60 + .40*.1= .64
Chance of Pats winning if they punt: .30


We're accounting for the chance that they don't convert. If they don't convert, you lose 90% of the time. The thing is, teams convert most of the time.

You're pulling those stats out of your behind. You don't know that the chance of converting is 60%. Particularly not on the road, with that huge momentum swing going against the Pats and the crowd rocking that field so loud the offense couldn't even hear itself think. I'll give you another stat. What if the conversion rate was actually 33% considering the additional factors and the play call? Empty backfield mean the Colts KNEW the Pats had to pass and played it accordingly. With a RB in you at least give the chance of the run or the draw play.

Again I can make up stats too. The most reasonable thing to do is play the field position game and MAKE THE ADJUSTMENTS so your defense CAN hold up for 70+ yards.

 

[makewayhomer]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Yes, because I expect that a Patriots player would come out and say something along the lines of

"Belichick just threw us under the bus. What the hell was he thinking? If Manning gets the ball at the 30 there, he scores about 99.999% of the time. You don't have faith in us stopping him from 65 yards away, so you're going to put us in a position where we've got to stop him from 30 yards away instead? Great job coach. Next time just shoot us in the head, because that will be quicker!".

Great point, really.

alright ,go on thinking whatever you want to think, while ignoring

1) people smarter than you
2) basic math
3) whatever subjective comments people want to make that your argument happens to cling on

gl with that

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The human mind is capable of making rough calculations as to probability to arrive at decisions. When it makes those calculations, the mind (if it is a sharp one) generally takes into account of all the factors you are describing. The math is a good place to start, but the mind of course makes the necessary adjustments.

So, in other words, I am NOT wrong when I say, I understand the chances of making a first down, but the risk of giving Manning a short field in that situation overrides those chances, and therefore the Pats should have punted.
Because, when I said that before, I had about five stats guys, including yourself, say, no, you ARE wrong, based on the stats, and you must be really stupid not to understand the numbers.
I understand that BB came to a different conclusion, but my conclusion that they should have punted is NOT wrong based on stats alone.
If you need help with anything else, feel free to ask.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You're pulling those stats out of your behind. You don't know that the chance of converting is 60%. Particularly not on the road, with that huge momentum swing going against the Pats and the crowd rocking that field so loud the offense couldn't even hear itself think. I'll give you another stat. What if the conversion rate was actually 33% considering the additional factors and the play call? Empty backfield mean the Colts KNEW the Pats had to pass and played it accordingly. With a RB in you at least give the chance of the run or the draw play.

Again I can make up stats too. The most reasonable thing to do is play the field position game and MAKE THE ADJUSTMENTS so your defense CAN hold up for 70+ yards.

You are correct, but you can't convince these guys of anything. Stats is stats.

 

[eagle eye]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Then adjust the statistics to take into account the situation. The point value (to the Colts) of giving them the ball at the 30 increases with a Manning offense, but it also increases the point value (to the Colts) of giving them the ball at their own 30. The better Manning is, the MORE you want to go for it in that situation, not less. If Rex Grossman is on the other side, you obviously kick it away. Are you arguing just to argue? You're saying: "I don't like the numbers you're plugging in". I say: "OK, adjust the numbers." Why don't you suggest some numbers, plug them into the equation and see where the tipping point is. We don't have to argue about the math part of it (like Kontradiction is), that's beyond argument. If you want to argue the relative probabilities of all the various events, that's fine , but focusing on the relative probabilities of the Colts actions only, without taking into account the probability of the Patriots' actions is just intellectually indefensible.

The math is not in favour of us going for it. There is nothing in it mathematically on averages for the Colts in this situation, and given the success of the Colts from inside our 30 yard line(100%) on the night, I think kicking it away has a huge advantage.

When you kick it away their chances are somewhere between 20% and 40%. They have a 40% success rate on the night, but that includes a mistaken pass interfernce call made by an official which put them in the red zone.

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The most reasonable thing to do is play the field position game and MAKE THE ADJUSTMENTS so your defense CAN hold up for 70+ yards.

Why is it the "most reasonable thing"? Because you say so? Because "it's always been done this way"? We've given you the math that is a starting point for analysis. The decisionmaker still has to make the adjustments to the historical data to take into account present circumstances. According to you, that means assigning the conversion a 33% probability. If that's the number you assign, fine, I think it's low, and I think you're being dishonest to prove a point, but fine. BB had a different assessment. I trust his more than yours.

And tell me. What are these magical "Adjustments" you speak of? By "adjustments" do you mean teleporting and pulling Lawrence Taylor out of 1986? Because here are the facts, my friend. Because of injury, we had no depth on the D line and were getting ZERO pass rush because guys were exhausted. That leaves blitzing as the only alternative. Oops, but that doesn't work either, because Manning torches the blitz. So, tell me, what are these magical "adjustments" of which you speak?

 

[letekro]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

The math is not in favour of us going for it. There is nothing in it mathematically on averages for the Colts in this situation, and given the success of the Colts from inside our 30 yard line(100%) on the night, I think kicking it away has a huge advantage.

When you kick it away their chances are somewhere between 20% and 40%. They have a 40% success rate on the night, but that includes a mistaken pass interfernce call made by an official which put them in the red zone.

Colts would have been back on our 30 in two plays and you know it. You know that our end of game D is all about giving up yards and then trying to hold up in the red zone. BB thankfully said no thanks to this born to lose strategy.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

alright ,go on thinking whatever you want to think, while ignoring

1) people smarter than you
2) basic math
3) whatever subjective comments people want to make that your argument happens to cling on

gl with that

1.) You have no idea of the comparative intelligence.

2.) I'm not ignoring basic math. I'm disagreeing with the people who are ignoring everything else but that 'basic math', because their assertions are based upon incomplete data, and I think that has skewed their conclusion(s).

3.) This entire argument is based upon subjective interpretation of both objective and subjective data.

 

[eagle eye]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Colts would have been back on our 30 in two plays and you know it. You know that our end of game D is all about giving up yards and then trying to hold up in the red zone. BB thankfully said no thanks to this born to lose strategy.

Are we talking math here or is this just your guess of what would have happened? Are you forgetting that Manning threw two interceptions in the second half?

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Colts would have been back on our 30 in two plays and you know it. You know that our end of game D is all about giving up yards and then trying to hold up in the red zone. BB thankfully said no thanks to this born to lose strategy.

Do you have the statistics that prove this thing we should all "know"?