Worst case scenario @27

[everlong]

Merriweather was a great college player, he was considered the top safety in the draft.

No he wasn't. Laron Landry was far and away the top rated safety in that draft even if BM had a clean record. He was right in the group with Reggie Nelson and Michael Griffin. Maybe he moves ahead of those two players with a clean rap sheet but even then maybe not.

 

[manxman2601]

@Patsdoerer

I like Harrison Smith, I think he'll be a solid safety and is the clear no 2 in the draft unless Gilmore or Kirkpatrick convert. However, as in the box run support or a centerfield ball hawk, I still rate Barron significantly higher, Two things on Smith:

1. I'm really going off that Stanford video so small sample size. Whilst he tackles well, he doesn't strike me as a hitter in the Barron mould. Nevertheless, he wraps up well and I'm certainly not being too critical of him, just explaining in part why I rank Barron higher..

2. You cites some instances of Barron's failures. Well, OK, you'll find those for all prospects. Check out 1:50 in the Smith v Stanford video where Stephon Taylor dumps Harrison Smith on his backside with a cutback. This is not meant as a criticism, just pointing out that picking out all prospects aren't perfect.

PS - I genuinly would like to see more of Smith. If you have any other links to share, please do - I really do think he could be a Patriot next season.

 

[rookBoston]

That list is very pathetic for the #27 pick in the draft. All would be clearly overdrafted.

Wha?! Totally disagree. This is a very solid list to choose from at 27, way better than recent years.

And it's a worst case scenario. There is no way that either Hill or Floyd drop to 27. And Tannehill will be gone too. We're going to have a few good players at positions of need to pick from at 27, without lifting a finger.

From this list, I would take Barron in a heartbeat. BB plays split safeties, in any case. Barron reminds me of Rodney in terms of reading and reacting to the play.

I would have been depressed if we were choosing between Hightower, Minnefield and Sanu, but that is absolutely not the case-- and those players aren't even that bad. The talent in this draft class does not really start dropoff until the early-mid 30s, and we're going to get a really good player at 48.

 

[patsfan-1982]

i would love if Peter Konz Mark Barron and Michael Floyd were there at #27 but i see the pats Tradeing down or into next year with at lest one or both of there #1's

 

[everlong]

I would have been depressed if we were choosing between Hightower, Minnefield and Sanu, but that is absolutely not the case-- and those players aren't even that bad. The talent in this draft class does not really start dropoff until the early-mid 30s, and we're going to get a really good player at 48.

Funny most years I've read your takes and they've been very close to mine but this year not so much. I like Hightower and Minnifield a lot. I think Hightower would be a great value in this system being able to go inside or outside. I like Minnifield but not in the first but I like him more than Baron.

 

[captain stone]

I agree with the other poster that it's a round too early. I don't think the value is there for [Curry] at 48 either but 63 depending on who else is on the board.

His 40 time is likely to make him available at the end of the second but his senior bowl and 3-cone drill would put him in play for me. People forget Suggs ran a 4.84 40.

Has Marshall had its pro day yet? Curry needs to impress in his OLB drills if he wants to overtake Shea McClellin, whose pro day is the 22nd. And if he continues to show strength & athleticism, McClellin might not even be available at 48, and as of now I'd rather have him than Curry.

 

[everlong]

Marshall's pro day is today.

 

[Ivan]

Y'all continue to forget a frequently repeated Belichick maxim. You don't gamble in the First round. You take a First round player, Period. Or you trade out. Consequently, He has never had a first round bust.

Belichick does and has gambled in subsequent rounds though.

Overall I agree, they rarely miss on a first rounder, but Maroney was definitely a bust. And i agree that after the first he takes measured risks, some turn out great and others miss. It seems like he takes quite a few players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds who might have been firsts if not for injuries in college. Gronkowski, Tate, and I-Dowling as examples.

 

[patsderoer]

@Patsdoerer

PS - I genuinly would like to see more of Smith. If you have any other links to share, please do - I really do think he could be a Patriot next season.

I have his highlights Harrison Smith top safety 2012 draft - YouTube
Here you can see that Smith can be a ballhawk as good as anybody. 7 INT two seasons ago, none this year because teams avoided testing him deep.

The Stanford video, Smith is going against the top QB prospect in this draft, while Barron didnt face this season a QB in the top15 in this draft. Andrew Luck vs Notre Dame 2011 - YouTube
H Smith is #22 for Notre Dame.
At 2:17 in the vid, H Smith has great coverage on Stanford #86 near the yellow line, forcing Luck to go to another guy on 3rd and 5
At 2:28, Luck tests H Smith deep, but Smith has great coverage on the WR, and the throw is an incompletion
At 2:47 H Smith pass rushes and forces an INT from Luck
At 6:44 again Luck tests H Smith deep, but H Smith has great coverage on the WR and almost makes the INT.
At 7:43 Luck finds Fleener in the center of the field for the easy TD (not the fault of H Smith as Fleener wasnt his man); what you can see is that H Smith has great coverage on the WR on the left side

So both times that Luck tested H Smith deep, H Smith had great coverage on the WR, once almost making the INT. I havent seen Barron do this against a top10 QB this season, because he didnt even play one. I would certainly have liked to see Barron without a great front 7 in front of him, and see how he compares with the other safeties in the draft who didnt have the best front 7 in front of them.

When you analyze Barron, you cannot ignore that he was protected by the best front 7 unit in the country. Kareem Jackson looked like a shut-down CB in saban's system, but became a JAG in the NFL.
Barron could be a great safety, or a JAG safety with the best front 7 in college making him look like a great safety. Kareem Jackson certainly proves that JAG DBs can look very good in saban's system.

H Smith had an average front 7 in front of him, so the fact that he looked good is only his own merit, you dont have to second guess whether he is actually very good, or the front 7 makes him look look much better than he really is. This is why I prefer H Smith over Barron. H Smith also has elite agility, put up a 6.63 3-cone at the combine, while with Barron I dont know where he stands, as he didnt perform.

 

[captain stone]

Marshall's pro day is today.

And it seems as if Curry did quite well there.

Vinny Curry, Marshall, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Does this news change anyone's opinion on his viability as a NEP Pass-Rusher
if he's still available at 48? Or at 63?

 

[rookBoston]

Funny most years I've read your takes and they've been very close to mine but this year not so much. I like Hightower and Minnifield a lot. I think Hightower would be a great value in this system being able to go inside or outside. I like Minnifield but not in the first but I like him more than Baron.

Sorry, everlong... let me clarify. I mention Hightower, Minnefield and Sanu because i LIKE them... just not at 27. They aren't even listed on the OP as candidates to consider.

I'm pretty sure BB will think seriously about them in the 2nd round. That was what I was alluding to with my comment that we will get a pretty solid player at #48. I would guess that two of those three, at least, will be available at #48.

 

[everlong]

Sorry, everlong... let me clarify. I mention Hightower, Minnefield and Sanu because i LIKE them... just not at 27. They aren't even listed on the OP as candidates to consider.

I'm pretty sure BB will think seriously about them in the 2nd round. That was what I was alluding to with my comment that we will get a pretty solid player at #48. I would guess that two of those three, at least, will be available at #48.

I don't like Minnifield or Sanu at 27 or 31 either. I'm higher on Hightower than most. I really feel he could play any of the four LB positions for us which would allow for amazing flexibility. So I guess our opinions are closer than I thought.

Any how no worries. I just found it weird because there's certain people who always have a similar view to mine and some that never do. I'm not saying either side is right we just look at this imperfect science differently. When somebody I normally fall into lock step with has a totally different view it makes me think what did I miss? In the case of Hightower and Minnifield I just didn't think I did miss anything. College WRs are so tough to evaluate. I'm rarely ever wrong on guys I think will be outright busts like Jarrett or Sweed. But on guys I like I'm like I'm probably 50/50 and then there's the group of I have no idea and that's the vast majority.

So with Sanu I like him but I'm really unsure about him. I think he has good work ethic and character. I think he's smart and tough. I do not however know if he has what it takes to get separation in the NFL. He does have good hands and can elevate and use his size. Is that enough if he can't separate? Can he be one of those receivers that just exploits zones?

It's a really tough position especially when you look at how the average college corner plays.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I don't like Minnifield or Sanu at 27 or 31 either.

Minnifield has been killing his stock since the combine. He measured in a full 2 inches shorter than his listed height and ran a 4.6 at his pro day.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Minnifield has been killing his stock since the combine. He measured in a full 2 inches shorter than his listed height and ran a 4.6 at his pro day.

Could be a steal in the 4th. I really liked him on tape, especially in 2010.

 

[everlong]

I really like his tape as well and it's not exactly like 2 inches shorter has ever scared the Pats off.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Could be a steal in the 4th. I really liked him on tape, especially in 2010.

I did too, but he really hurt his potential.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Minnifield is still injured. He couldn't even complete his pro day. I have zero doubts that when recovered, he's a solid 4.4 guy. He completely shut down Stephen Hill when they played each other. My favorite play is when he runs stride for stride with Hill, elevates, and takes the jump ball away from him for a sweet interception. He can play.

If the Pats can settle the injury issues, he's an absolute steal anywhere in the 3rd onward.

Captain Stone had a good note about Curry. He performed much more in line with expectations at his pro day. A composite of his measureables, then, would have him in the 4.6 range with a sub-7 3-cone time and a 35"+ vertical at over 260 pounds. That's right in line for an elite rush linebacker. He needs a LOT of technique work, especially against the run, but he knows how to disengage, he's quick and relentless, and he's had two straight years of very good production. Undervalued, in my opinion.

Randle is growing on me, for what it's worth. Forget the numbers; on tape he can fly, can threaten a defense deep, and he's surprisingly agile and powerful after the catch. Like him a lot at 31 if the other options are slim.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Captain Stone had a good note about Curry. He performed much more in line with expectations at his pro day. A composite of his measureables, then, would have him in the 4.6 range with a sub-7 3-cone time and a 35"+ vertical at over 260 pounds. That's right in line for an elite rush linebacker. He needs a LOT of technique work, especially against the run, but he knows how to disengage, he's quick and relentless, and he's had two straight years of very good production. Undervalued, in my opinion.

I think Curry was injured at the combine, which would explain his mediocre numbers. I remember he missed most of the positional drills, and one of the coaches running the drills said he was out with some sort of injury. I really like him and hope he falls a bit, but he seems like a solid, mid-high 2nd round prospect.

 

[Off The Grid]

I really like his tape as well and it's not exactly like 2 inches shorter has ever scared the Pats off.

True, but maybe it should have.

 

[everlong]

True, but maybe it should have.

The results have been split on the shorter guys. McCorty, Wilson, Samuel, Chung, Sanders and Hobbs, yes even Ellis, were all good picks. I don't think Wheatley, Butler or others failed because they were short.