My OP is wrong because the season is not over? "Will this defense be top 10?" implies that it's speaking of the future. It does not say "this defense is not top 10." It says "will." This also includes red zone D and third down D. It includes everything about the defense -- every little thing.
That's a really silly reason to call me wrong. In fact, if i'm wrong because the season isn't over, then you're wrong because the season isn't over too. How can you make statements about this defense but I cannot? If I cannot say this defense is not top 10 until the season is over, then you cannot say it is.
Sad you have to call me a moron because of your flawed and pointless argument there. I guess that level of stupidity can't be blamed entirely on you, your parents should have raised you better. Instead, they've raised someone who gets angry, TYPES every OTHER word IN caps to express said anger, and attacks people on message boards for not agreeing with his opinion.
It's okay, we're all going to make it brah.
I think you're obsessing over things that don't matter.
First, the red zone D. Considering 7 of the top 10 teams in red zone defense didn't even make the playoffs last year. Meanwhile, the "final 4" finished 11th (Patriots), 20th (Seahawks), 23rd (Packers), and 32nd (Colts).
If given the choice at being good or being bad, I'd take being good, but it can also be misleading. Last Thursday, the Patriots allowed 2/3 TDs in the red zone, and gave up 17 points. A few days earlier, the Jaguars allowed the Bills only 1/3 TDs in the red zone, but gave up 31 points.
These are also still small sample sizes. The Patriots have given up TDs on 12 of 19 trips to the red zone. A lot of that is garbage time, and 2 less TDs would mean they're sitting just outside the top 10.
Which also leads to the "difference" between top 5, top 10, top 15. There's a decent difference between 5 and 15, but not so much in the 5 to 10, or 10 to 15 range. Whether this team finishes 9th or 12th may "win" someone their argument online, but those teams are really close together anyways and arguing over which is better or worse is a bit silly. They're all more or less the same.
Defensive variance (Points Per Game/Yards)
* Note: Not the same defenses finished in the same rankings in both categories. Just listing the number that finished to understand how meaningless the differences can be.
2012
1: 15.3/275.8
5: 18.7/315.6
10:20.7/333.1
15: 21.8/343.2
2013
1: 14.1/273.6
5: 19.1/316.9
10: 21.1/333.4
15: 23.5/345.0
2014
1: 15.9/267.1
5: 18.7/321.4
10: 21.3/339.8
15: 22.0/346.4
2015
1: 16.0/261.1
5: 18.3/316.6
10: 19.1/342.3
15: 22.8/352.1
The top of the defensive standings usually have some significant gap, but once you get outside of the top 3 or 4, there's usually not much of a difference. If you watched the #5 defense and the #10 defense over 16 games without recording any numbers at the end of the game, you wouldn't be able to tell the difference. So whether they finish 6th or 8th or 12th or 14th, there's really not a whole lot of difference.
As for third down D, again, good to be good at it, but not the most important character in the story. The Texans lead the league right now in that category, and are 22nd in points per game and 14th in yards per game. Denver is #2, Seattle is #3, might be the 2 best defenses in football. Then the Saints are #4 in 3rd down D, but 30th in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed. #5 is Minnesota, which has a top 5 defense although they haven't really played anybody yet. #6 is KC, which is middle of the pack.
If you have the choice, you want to do well in everything. But let's not obsess over the wrong things here.
