Why Passing Beats Running

[Joker]

So...the Washington Redskins and their hogs with Riggins running behind them suck? Doug Williams should have thrown 80% of the offensive plays and the "Skins would have won even bigger?

Try the ridiculous flag football rules changes the past decade to understand why teams pass more today.

 

[Deus Irae]

"If you've got Jim Brown at RB, and Ryan Leaf at QB, you throw the ball, EVERY DAMN TIME!"
- Dumbasses who don't understand the need for context in sports statistics

 

[mosslost]

This quote from 538 about sums it up:

Basically, there is pretty much no ordinary situation in which running produces better results than passing.
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Of course even in situations where passing dominates running, you still need to run some percentage of the time for game-theoretic reasons. Basically you have to keep the defense guessing and have to keep them from always going with a light box.

The main consequence of this is that RBs have been clearly devalued over time. Percentage of total salary to RBs has been heading steadily downward.

This year the Pats have more hybrid RBs that can also catch - that for me was the big problem with Blount - he signalled a run. But the Pats also seem to use RBs near the goal line more than most other teams, so we do need a strong short-yardage back.

Full article here:
Running Backs Are Finally Getting Paid What They’re Worth

5000+ Yards Passing 50 TDs+ for Brady this year!

 

[mosslost]

I see 538 trying to reinvent football again. Most of the time you have to run the ball to win unless Tom Brady is the quarterback

This is actually very true at least with respect to Brady's success. There is a stat that shows Brady having a ridiculous winning record when throwing more than 50 times, when like all the other greats combined, when throwing 50 or more, have losing records.

 

[mosslost]

Pound the Rock...

 

[mosslost]

 

[mosslost]

 

[mosslost]

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Well here's a question for everyone:

How will the Pats' pass/run ratio change this year in the regular season? More pass, more run or about the same?

My prediction is a bit more run, for four reasons:
1. Because Pats will want to slow the game down more and protect their leads.
2. We have a more diverse set of RBs and so it will be harder for opponents to key on "run."
3. The presence of Cooks (and more experience from Mitchell & Hogan) will force more nickel and dime and generally lighter boxes
4. Because Belichick is going to zig while everyone else zags.

 

[lamafist]

People still haven't realized that winning percentage added/subtracted is complete nonsense?

Honestly, what exactly is the point of a post like this?

Your question clearly wasn't meant to be taken in good faith, because the answer is self-evident -- just counting myself, the OP of the thread, the guy who wrote the 538 article, his editor who signed off on it, and the academics whose research the article is based on, obviously, yes, there are some people who don't think that WPA added/subtracted is complete nonsense.

Or perhaps was it your intention to provide the most textbook possible example of the "appeal to ridicule" rhetorical fallacy for, I don't know, posterity or something?

Because otherwise it seems to me like you were just being hostile, without any provocation whatsoever,?