Why is age a concern when drafting a QB

[Pats1971]

If a Qb comes in and wins, nobody cares what his age is.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

If a Qb comes in and wins, nobody cares what his age is.

Even if athleticism is key to his game? And his younger peers who don't rely on athleticism as much go on to have much longer peaks and careers? I very much care about age in this deep QB draft, *especially* with someone like Daniels.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I think the concern is more about how old a player is when he breaks out. If Maye or Williams stayed in school another season for their own personal reasons, it would not hurt their stock come the 2025 draft. If anything it would actually help as teams would appreciate the extra experience. The problem is a few players we’re seeing this year that didn’t have a breakout season until they were 23 years old and in their fifth college season. What took so long? Are they really that good or is it case of a man vs boys.

Daniels started as an 18 year old Freshman and the team improved from the previous year. They went 8-5, 2-2 (COVID), 8-5 with him and went 3-9 and 3-9 since he left.
LSU was 5-5 and 6-7 before Daniels showed up and went 10-3 and 10-4 after. He didn’t just play well his senior year. He made his teams better

 

[NashuaPats]

Daniels started as an 18 year old Freshman and the team improved from the previous year. They went 8-5, 2-2 (COVID), 8-5 with him and went 3-9 and 3-9 since he left.
LSU was 5-5 and 6-7 before Daniels showed up and went 10-3 and 10-4 after. He didn’t just play well his senior year. He made his teams better

He played well in previous seasons, but not to the point that he was considered an early round pick.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Even if athleticism is key to his game? And his younger peers who don't rely on athleticism as much go on to have much longer peaks and careers? I very much care about age in this deep QB draft, *especially* with someone like Daniels.

I think you are subscribing to two false premises:
False Premise 1: Elite athletes age more poorly than non- elite athletes who do not rely on athleticism. This is simply not true. Jayden Daniels can lose a speed and still have above average athleticism. They can learn the game better over time. Margin athletes who lose a step are out of the league. The two elite athletes at the QB position - Michael Vick and Randall Cunningham both had very successful seasons at 30 or older.
False Premise 2: You somehow seem to be very worried about an extended career. Any QB that makes it to contract 2 with the same team is a win. Joe Burtow came out at 23. Four years into his career, like almost all successful quarterbacks, he signed a 5 year extension. That is the standard. No one is worried that he is under contract until 32. If Jayden Daniels is good, no one will care about a 5 year contract at 27-28. They will care if he stinks and doesn’t deserve a second contract.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

I think you are subscribing to two false premises:
False Premise 1: Elite athletes age more poorly than non- elite athletes who do not rely on athleticism. This is simply not true. Jayden Daniels can lose a speed and still have above average athleticism. They can learn the game better over time. Margin athletes who lose a step are out of the league. The two elite athletes at the QB position - Michael Vick and Randall Cunningham both had very successful seasons at 30 or older.

I didn't say they age more poorly. I said their career peaks are shorter because they rely on athleticism which declines with age (and injury). Cunningham is a great example in my favor. After his age 29 year, he was pretty much done as a running QB. Age 30 onward, here are the number of games he started: 4, 14, 4, 3, 14, 6, 3, 2. He had just *one* great season after age 29, when he was 35.

Do you still take Daniels if he follows a similar trajectory? And will you bank on an unproven ability to be an elite pocket passer, when he hasn't played without that extraordinary athleticism his whole life? If he had a bigger body, was succeeding without elite receivers, and could throw over the middle, I'd take him for sure, but then he wouldn't be there at 3.

Daniels isn't even in the same solar system as Vick for athleticism. But even so, Vick was done as a major force after his age 32 season, despite sitting out the majority of 3 seasons for being a monster.

False Premise 2: You somehow seem to be very worried about an extended career. Any QB that makes it to contract 2 with the same team is a win. Joe Burtow came out at 23. Four years into his career, like almost all successful quarterbacks, he signed a 5 year extension. That is the standard. No one is worried that he is under contract until 32. If Jayden Daniels is good, no one will care about a 5 year contract at 27-28. They will care if he stinks and doesn’t deserve a second contract.

Contracts? I'm unclear what point you are trying to make. I'm not worried about an "extended career", I'm worried about Daniels being done (or incapable of transforming his game to adjust) at age 28 after building an entire offense around him, and then the Pats have to start all over again. If you have a franchise QB, you'd like to keep him for as long as you can, right? They are tough to come by. Since 1970, the Pats have only had Bledsoe and Brady.

 

[Aussie Patriot]

For the QB's in question, it's the difference between 22 (McCarthy, Maye) vs 24 (Daniels, Penix)

Maye and JJ are 21. Daniels is 23 and Penix is about to turn 24.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

If he had a bigger body, was succeeding without elite receivers, and could throw over the middle, I'd take him for sure, but then he wouldn't be there at 3.

I wouldn’t argue with anyone that wanted to pass on Daniels for these reasons. These are real concerns. If you think he can’t hold up, don’t think he has middle of the field arm strength, accuracy or quick enough processing: those all seem like legit criteria to pass on him at 1.3.

I just don’t hold his age against him. I would rather have a slightly older QB with 25+ college starts; all other things being equal.