Why did the Patriots place heavy emphasis on the running game in the first half?

[mosi]

Because Miami was 30th against the run going into the game. By the end, they ended up 28th. The Pats line is not good. When you loose your best lineman and are running rookies and people outside of their positions, it generally does not bode well.

People crapped on Blount this year but he got all he could out of this line. He really did.

 

[ivanvamp]

I've said this in other threads but this seems an appropriate spot for it as well. In my opinion (and that's all we're doing is sharing opinions since we'll never know what BB and the coaching staff were actually thinking), here's what they were doing. They were trying to accomplish two things at once: (1) win the game, and (2) minimize the risk of injury to key players.

If they went all out for (2), which would have meant sitting Gronk and Brady in particular, they'd have completely forfeited a chance for (1), and I think BB wanted to win. But if they went all out for (1), they'd have employed a very different game strategy, and that would have exposed their key guys to greater risk (like hitting Gronk on seam passes).

So they went super conservative, aided by the Dolphins playing a lot of nickel (which made the choice easier), and they hoped that this conservative approach would be enough to win the game while at the same time minimizing the risk of injury to key guys.

After one half, they scored 3 points and were losing, and it was clear that this strategy could accomplish (2) but not (1), so they needed to change things up and try to win the game doing something different. Their first possession in the second half they went down and scored a TD, but after that they were ineffective.

It was a fine line to walk between (1) and (2), and there's zero - as in NO - chance that if they played that game again, even with the exact same rosters, for the AFCCG, that they use the same offensive strategy. I don't care what defense you're facing, you don't have Brady throw just 5 times in a half. In fact, in his entire career, that was the fewest pass attempts he'd ever tried in a half, so it was an unprecedented game plan for the Patriots. One that we will probably never see again. Certainly not in the playoffs.

 

[varjao]

The 1st half was an experiment, the 2nd was a fair game and the Pats lost, they got outplayed by Miami in both fronts, couldn't move the ball and made Tannehill look like a good QB, that's something we should all be worried.

 

[Tuck]

This board constantly overestimates Pitt and underestimates Denver.

For every BAD Denver game (they wina close one), I'll show you a BAD Pitt game.

Denver in Denver is going to be the toughest out for any team not coming to Gillette.

I agree. Denver and Manning looked pretty good Sunday night and will be a tough team to beat as long as Manning stays healthy.

I also don't buy the idea that Belichick is counting on Denver to lose to the Steelers and therefore felt he had another game to give away. That's a losers mentality. They simply lost the game.

The injuries are piling up and they better hope the can get healthy because whoever they from here on out will be better than the Jets , Dolphins or Eagles.

 

[manxman2601]

Seems relevant.

 

[mosi]

If we learned on thing , the running game will not be a factor in the post-season. They could not run on the worst teams and will have no shot against the teams left in the post-season. This team will be on Brady's shoulders 100%.

 

[Trycked]

So if they did the opposite, and instead pass like crazy in the first half, then only ran the ball in the second half, and still lost the game. Then everyone would be happy?

Well, maybe Belichick knows that the other team knows, that he knows that they know he knows he would do that, so he knows not to do it.

 

[sambam94]

so they couldn't evaluate the effectiveness of sjax while also trying to actually win an important game?
Doesn't make sense

 

[ivanvamp]

If we learned on thing , the running game will not be a factor in the post-season. They could not run on the worst teams and will have no shot against the teams left in the post-season. This team will be on Brady's shoulders 100%.

Sadly, I think this is probably true. Then again, in last year's playoff run, here's how they gained yards:

vs Bal: 35 points, 408 pass yds, 14 rush yds
vs Ind: 45 points, 220 pass yds, 177 rush yds
vs Sea: 28 points, 320 pass yds, 57 rush yds

The Indy game was a blowout and it didn't matter how they did it. So let's focus on the two hard games. In those games, the Pats averaged 17 rushes for 35.6 yards (13 for 14 yds vs Bal, 21 for 57 yds vs Sea). That's an average of 2.1 yards per carry in those two games. Yet they averaged 31.5 points in those two games, without the benefit of any special teams or defensive touchdowns. Brady simply surgically sliced those two defenses apart, with some help from some trickery in the Baltimore game.

He's more than capable of doing that again if they need him to, so long as their receiving corps is healthy and their OL keeps him upright. Both of those things are huge question marks, but if they are ok, the Pats will score points.

The defense will need to be stout, though of course in those two same games, they gave up a total of 55 points (27.5 per game), so really, even though Harmon and Butler made game-saving plays in those two games, it was the offense that carried them to the title for the most part.

 

[mosi]

Sadly, I think this is probably true. Then again, in last year's playoff run, here's how they gained yards:

vs Bal: 35 points, 408 pass yds, 14 rush yds
vs Ind: 45 points, 220 pass yds, 177 rush yds
vs Sea: 28 points, 320 pass yds, 57 rush yds

The Indy game was a blowout and it didn't matter how they did it. So let's focus on the two hard games. In those games, the Pats averaged 17 rushes for 35.6 yards (13 for 14 yds vs Bal, 21 for 57 yds vs Sea). That's an average of 2.1 yards per carry in those two games. Yet they averaged 31.5 points in those two games, without the benefit of any special teams or defensive touchdowns. Brady simply surgically sliced those two defenses apart, with some help from some trickery in the Baltimore game.

He's more than capable of doing that again if they need him to, so long as their receiving corps is healthy and their OL keeps him upright. Both of those things are huge question marks, but if they are ok, the Pats will score points.

The defense will need to be stout, though of course in those two same games, they gave up a total of 55 points (27.5 per game), so really, even though Harmon and Butler made game-saving plays in those two games, it was the offense that carried them to the title for the most part.

I do think that BB wanted to see what kind of running game he had and now he knows. Brady is the only QB that could go into the playoffs without a running game and still win. But he needs his guys. Actually, at this point, he just needs some guys!

 

[Gumby]

I've said this in other threads but this seems an appropriate spot for it as well. In my opinion (and that's all we're doing is sharing opinions since we'll never know what BB and the coaching staff were actually thinking), here's what they were doing. They were trying to accomplish two things at once: (1) win the game, and (2) minimize the risk of injury to key players.

If they went all out for (2), which would have meant sitting Gronk and Brady in particular, they'd have completely forfeited a chance for (1), and I think BB wanted to win. But if they went all out for (1), they'd have employed a very different game strategy, and that would have exposed their key guys to greater risk (like hitting Gronk on seam passes).

So they went super conservative, aided by the Dolphins playing a lot of nickel (which made the choice easier), and they hoped that this conservative approach would be enough to win the game while at the same time minimizing the risk of injury to key guys.

After one half, they scored 3 points and were losing, and it was clear that this strategy could accomplish (2) but not (1), so they needed to change things up and try to win the game doing something different. Their first possession in the second half they went down and scored a TD, but after that they were ineffective.

It was a fine line to walk between (1) and (2), and there's zero - as in NO - chance that if they played that game again, even with the exact same rosters, for the AFCCG, that they use the same offensive strategy. I don't care what defense you're facing, you don't have Brady throw just 5 times in a half. In fact, in his entire career, that was the fewest pass attempts he'd ever tried in a half, so it was an unprecedented game plan for the Patriots. One that we will probably never see again. Certainly not in the playoffs.

I would posit that the best way to have done (2), would have been to do (1) really well in 1q; go up 21-3 and then the fish would have quit in the other 3 qtrs. But just like in the iggles game, you give that fish on the hook too much slack and they slip and get away.

So, i have to think BB had something else in mind with all the runs OR he really doesnt trust that OL and didnt think they could carry an invincible swagger for 15 minutes: that their going full out in 1Q would look pathetic and expose their faults to the other playoff teams even more than run-run-run-punt.

 

[supafly]

I had heard that the Patriots saw mostly nickel fronts against their power formations which should be a clear win for the offense. Teams generally run every time when presented this opportunity....

The issue was that the blocking and slowness of the RBs was not able to take advantage. Not a good sign for a team that may want to run in the playoffs.

Ding, ding, ding. This is clearly the winning answer.

We should've been able to run all over Miami's nickle defense, and they most likely already had a good idea of wanting to run the ball to 1) get the running game going, which has absolutely sucked this year, 2) limit Brady's exposure, 3) take advantage of the 30th ranked rush defense, and 4) kill the clock.

 

[supafly]

Brady is the only QB that could go into the playoffs without a running game and still win.

While probably true, I wouldn't base too many future postseason results on the fact that Brady was able to come back from 3 separate double digit deficits last year. The odds of that happening last year were insanely slim.

We may choose to go that route in terms of gameplanning for a game, but even then, I doubt that Belichick envisions "5 total rushes" when he wants to go pass heavy in his scheme.

Either way, I agree with you that no matter what, having Brady gives us a chance at victory--lack of a rushing attack or not, but that's very different than choosing to not run and being forced to not run.

 

[supafly]

Because BB wanted to lose and get the 2nd seed. None of the game plan made sense. Down 10 you let Brady run the 2:00 offense if youre serious about winning the game.

The # 2 is the easier path. Pitt is going to be a tough out. They will roll Cinci without Dalton and then face Denver instead of NE.

Pitt will likely beat Denver so NE will have homefield for the AFCC anyway while still resting players.

If Belichick really wanted to lose the game, I highly doubt he'd have played our franchise's top 2 players in Brady/Gronk for almost every offensive snap. He simply would've allowed Garappolo to quarterback the team like a preseason game.

While I agree with you that PIT likely having to face DEN guarantees that one of those teams will be taken out is a good thing, I can't even begin to entertain the notion that Belichick lost on purpose, especially since there was still the possibility of SD winning later on in the day (which they almost did).

To take it one step further, the Jets had the ball and were driving to potentially win the game at the very end, which was coinciding with the Patriot game. There was no way to even know that Pittsburgh would get in.

 

[Triumph]

If Belichick really wanted to lose the game, I highly doubt he'd have played our franchise's top 2 players in Brady/Gronk for almost every offensive snap. He simply would've allowed Garappolo to quarterback the team like a preseason game.

While I agree with you that PIT likely having to face DEN guarantees that one of those teams will be taken out is a good thing, I can't even begin to entertain the notion that Belichick lost on purpose, especially since there was still the possibility of SD winning later on in the day (which they almost did).

To take it one step further, the Jets had the ball and were driving to potentially win the game at the very end, which was coinciding with the Patriot game. There was no way to even know that Pittsburgh would get in.

Playing Jimmy would have been too obvious.

The Jets matchup good with NE too.

 

[mosi]

While probably true, I wouldn't base too many future postseason results on the fact that Brady was able to come back from 3 separate double digit deficits last year. The odds of that happening last year were insanely slim.

We may choose to go that route in terms of gameplanning for a game, but even then, I doubt that Belichick envisions "5 total rushes" when he wants to go pass heavy in his scheme.

Either way, I agree with you that no matter what, having Brady gives us a chance at victory--lack of a rushing attack or not, but that's very different than choosing to not run and being forced to not run.

Yup, and do to what he did last year he needed all of the Pats receivers. This year, 80% of them are injured.

 

[Brewskies]

OH c'mon, the Jets and Miami games were the results of playing with properly inflated footballs.

 

[MitchKumstein]

If we learned on thing , the running game will not be a factor in the post-season. They could not run on the worst teams and will have no shot against the teams left in the post-season. This team will be on Brady's shoulders 100%.

The worrisome thing about this is that

1. The injured OL has done a horrible job protecting Brady
2. Brady is already banged up
3. Opponents are very aware of 1 and 2

 

[IcyPatriot]

I think the Patriots took it real easy in practice all week ... trying more to heal as opposed to preparing for the game. The play calls were similar to a pre season game as in going through the motions. I don't think it's any more complicated than that.

 

[PP2]

Hopefully when BB retires he'll write a thousand-plus page book explaining everything he was thinking for every game he coached. Or at least make a youtube.

He doesn't do mytube.