Why are people still trashing the defense?

[Huckleberry1]

There are many reasons why the Patriots have been on this unbelievably great run since 2001. One of them is the emergence of Tom Brady. That's a big one, but it's not the only one. Another is that Belichick is, on the whole, very good at judging and acquiring talent. He's not perfect at it, but he's very good.

Agree completely, they have their misses in the draft but they draft later than pretty much every team every draft and that's a serious disadvantage as you never get the shot at Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Peterson, JJ Watts, etc....and every team needs big time playmakers to put them over the top. can you find some later, absolutely, but it is much much harder to do so. The truth, at least imo, is that there is no way the Patriots could have had the run of success they have had if Belichick was bad at player evaluation and choices, as they certainly haven't used free agency to stay on top. And while we can all find examples of serious mistakes in the drafts and have all watched them bypass our binkies for guys we have never heard of the end result is actually pretty impressive, and their record reflects that.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I would say Belichick is an above average GM, but not a great GM. Belichick the coach makes up for the mistakes of Belichick the GM. He clearly has made his fair share of mistakes. But he has brought about 4 very different rosters to the Super Bowl.

Yes, he hasn't been the best drafter at certain positions, but to think since he sucked at drafting WRs or CBs during stretches that he will always suck at it. Early results on Dobson and Thompkins (although Thompkins is an UDFA) are promising.

I consider him to be a great GM as I don't see how they could have stayed this successful while overturning the roster repeatedly if he wasn't, especially when you take the disavantage that winning so much puts a team at in terms of drafting, picking up players who have been released, and salary cap management, as success goes hand in hand with higher salary demands and losing players to free agency, overall Belichick manages all of it exceptionally well, even if he does make most of us nuts from time to time while we waqtch it. And as much respect as i have for the GOAT even the GOAT couldn't be the GOAT if he weren't surrounded by good players, and all anyone has to see to know that is true is how Eli Manning has fared with his crappy OL, or how much of a struggle it has been for the GOAT early this season with his real targets missing. The GOAT may not need the best skill players to be great but he can't do it without a good OL and good skill players.


I'm not positive but i am pretty sure that if Belichick wins another SB with Brady at QB it will be the first time a team has completely rebuilt around their star QB and won again, Brady will be the only player remaining from the 2001 team, and they would have achieved it without ever dropping out of contention, which i also believe has never been done before. let's hope they do, as then both are locks as GOAT.

 

[Kontradiction]

Actually I wasn't referring to you at all and haven't seen anything from you that would make me take that position about you, however there is definitely a contingent of Patriot fans who routinely trash Belichick's drafts who also regard any improvements by the Patriots defense as illusory and insist that it is really a product of the other team sucking than the patriots defense playing well. you can include yourself in that faction if you want but I have always considered you reasonable and intelligent. I have no problem with anyone being critical about the Patriots and do it myself when i feel it is accurate, but there are definitely those who choose to look at everything in the most negative light and that's who i was referring to.

The reason why I thought you were referring to me is because of the stance you took in that post that those that are taking the wait and see approach are just doing so in hope that the defense this year is still the same as 2009-2012 in order to trash Belichick's drafts. Like I said, you may want to re-think that because those that are taking the wait and see approach have actually been complimentary of the defense for the most part.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The reason why I thought you were referring to me is because of the stance you took in that post that those that are taking the wait and see approach are just doing so in hope that the defense this year is still the same as 2009-2012 in order to trash Belichick's drafts. Like I said, you may want to re-think that because those that are taking the wait and see approach have actually been complimentary of the defense for the most part.

I was probably just too casual in how i phrased it and framed it, i have no problem with wait and see and pretty much agree on that, but i do take issue with those who make the argument that their success is just a result of the other teams injuries, missed plays, and just being bad. The patriots defense has played well so far, it isn't just because Manuel missed throws, or Smith had an INT, or Jackson got hurt.

 

[Oswlek]

I consider him to be a great GM as I don't see how they could have stayed this successful while overturning the roster repeatedly if he wasn't, especially when you take the disavantage that winning so much puts a team at in terms of drafting, picking up players who have been released, and salary cap management, as success goes hand in hand with higher salary demands and losing players to free agency, overall Belichick manages all of it exceptionally well, even if he does make most of us nuts from time to time while we waqtch it. And as much respect as i have for the GOAT even the GOAT couldn't be the GOAT if he weren't surrounded by good players, and all anyone has to see to know that is true is how Eli Manning has fared with his crappy OL, or how much of a struggle it has been for the GOAT early this season with his real targets missing. The GOAT may not need the best skill players to be great but he can't do it without a good OL and good skill players.


I'm not positive but i am pretty sure that if Belichick wins another SB with Brady at QB it will be the first time a team has completely rebuilt around their star QB and won again, Brady will be the only player remaining from the 2001 team, and they would have achieved it without ever dropping out of contention, which i also believe has never been done before. let's hope they do, as then both are locks as GOAT.

There is virtually no reasonable way to argue that Bill isn't a top 5 GM during his tenure at NE.

Yes, I know the list of misses as well as anyone else, so there is no need to post any of them, but the number and quality of hits is superior to nearly every team in the past decade. Even if you want to give Bill a demerit for having more misses, it is important to understand that he manufactured those extra chances, so it isn't as if NE was handed a free second round pick every year.

Bill is a top 5 GM in his time with the Patriots and even a top 5 GM in the past 3-4 years. The problem is that his nadir was so low that it obscures objectivity.

 

[manxman2601]

With regards to the trashing BB gets for his drafting, the below study says that draft success in evaluating talent is almost entirely driven by chance:

Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft

I'm not sure I agree. BB's consistency at drafting 1st rounders suggests otherwise.

 

[mb6592]

but to expect a high draft pick to be a solid #2 or #3 WR in his rookie season is not out of the question.

Wow, how the times have changed. Certainly wasn't the sentiment of the PatsFan.com mega poster experts when the ignorant masses were b-tching about the rookie production of Chad Jackson or Brandon Tate. Back then the unenlightened were mocked mercilessly.

 

[mb6592]

First, did I say you? Or did I say every fan who is pessimistic?

Second, I specifically said it was "a few" posters.

Third, you are being silly to say that the pessimists are realistic while the homers (optimists?) are fanatical. If anything, history has shown the homers are far closer to being realistic with this team than the pessimists. If this team were the Jags, the pessimists would be classified as the realists. On this team, pessimists tend to be wrong more than they are right.

Fourth, so anyone who is optimistic is a homer and a fanatic? That is what you are saying if the realistic pessimists are going against the fanatical homers.

Your classifications of pessimists and "homers" clearly shows your biases.

Relax, I'm just having a little fun. Besides, you misinterpreted my fanatic comparison as a slight. Fan=Fanatic and it is a title we pessimists should aspire to. It makes the game more fun and it's why we root for one team. Just don't get too crazy lest you become like that Andy Johnson fellow.

 

[mb6592]

I believe this is what is referred to as a first world problem.

no doubt, but keeping things in perspective, when it comes to the Pats, ain't gonna happen.

 

[Danger Zone]

Re: Re: Why are people still trashing the defense?

Relax, I'm just having a little fun. Besides, you misinterpreted my fanatic comparison as a slight. Fan=Fanatic and it is a title we pessimists should aspire to. It makes the game more fun and it's why we root for one team. Just don't get too crazy lest you become like that Andy Johnson fellow.

There was a study that listed the chances of a player to be an NFL starter after three years based on where he was drafted.

First rounders were about 67%. 2nd rounders in the 50's. 3rd rounders in the 40's.

What I took away from it is that drafting is still a crap-shoot even by the very best of the best professional talent evaluators.

EDIT: Not the link I was trying to reference.. but it helps make the same case.

http://datascopeanalytics.com/what-we-think/2012/05/01/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft

 

[manxman2601]

There was a study that listed the chances of a player to be an NFL starter after three years based on where he was drafted.

First rounders were about 67%. 2nd rounders in the 50's. 3rd rounders in the 40's.

What I took away from it is that drafting is still a crap-shoot even by the very best of the best professional talent evaluators.

There's a recent study I linked to elsewhere on this forum that says it's 100% a crapshoot. That all teams evaluate talent well but beyond that success or failure is 95-100% chance.

"Some teams have great years, other teams have bad years - and it matters," Massey said. "But those differences aren't persistent year-to-year, which tells me that they are chance driven. Something between 95 and 100 percent - I'm not exaggerating - of team differences in the draft is driven by chance."

Study: NFL Teams Have No Idea What They're Doing In The Draft

 

[ausbacker]

I'm interested to read what numbers people believe the Patriots Defense need to constrict the Falcons to in order to demonstrate improvement?

For mine, the D has clearly improved. How much have they improved? We're about to find out. Scheduling or not, it's nice to be having this discussion.

 

[pherein]

I'm interested to read what numbers people believe the Patriots Defense need to constrict the Falcons to in order to demonstrate improvement?

For mine, the D has clearly improved. How much have they improved? We're about to find out. Scheduling or not, it's nice to be having this discussion.

Hmmm 17, though I think the average is 24 in the NFL.

 

[zoostation]

Who in the world would listen to squeaky when it comes to football? He's a passionate Red Sox homer who can't speak to any sport besides his beloved baseball. Yawn...... He is now trying to convince the yahoos to watch the Oakland As, TB Rays and any other competition the RS have to secure home field advantage. Yawn.....

Talking positive about the Pats takes the attention away from his RS. Why would anyone take anything he says about football seriously.

 

[ivanvamp]

Was gonna start a new thread, but figured it should go here...

In 2003, the Patriots had the best defense, statistically, during their great run. #1 in the NFL in points allowed, #7 in yards allowed. A case could be made that the 2004 Pats had a better defense: #2 in points allowed, #9 in yards allowed, but according to profootball-reference's DSRS rating, the 2004 team scored a 6.5, versus a 4.9 for the 2003 squad.

Either way, those two defenses were tremendous, by pretty much any measure. And yet, each of those defenses had numerous games that probably would have made fans go, whoa, maybe they're not that good.

2003
- at Buf: 31 points allowed (7 came on an interception return), 322 yds allowed
- vs Ten: 30 points allowed, 411 yds allowed
- at Den: 26 points allowed (7 came on a punt return), 277 yds allowed
- at Ind: 34 points allowed, 370 yds allowed
- vs Car (SB): 29 points allowed, 387 yds allowed

2004
- at Pit: 34 points allowed (7 came on an interception return), 417 yds allowed
- vs Cin: 28 pts allowed, 478 yds allowed
- at Mia: 29 points allowed, 231 yds allowed
- at Pit (AFCCG): 27 points allowed, 388 yds allowed

Now don't get me wrong: those defenses were tremendous, and for the most part were extremely effective (hence, the Pats going 14-2 each year and winning the Super Bowl). But make no mistake, they did have a few bad games.

I bring this up because I think that this defense has improved considerably over last year, and though they have a lot to prove, and certainly aren't yet to be considered in the class of the '03 and '04 teams, it's almost a guarantee that, even if they are a top 5 unit, they'll still have some bad games in there.

 

[Rob0729]

I'm interested to read what numbers people believe the Patriots Defense need to constrict the Falcons to in order to demonstrate improvement?

For mine, the D has clearly improved. How much have they improved? We're about to find out. Scheduling or not, it's nice to be having this discussion.

I said my expectations earlier in the thread. If the defense does similar to what the Dolphins did vs. that offense or better I will be happy.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I said my expectations earlier in the thread. If the defense does similar to what the Dolphins did vs. that offense or better I will be happy.

The fish played them at home on grass, the Patriots face them in the dome and I have to believe the falcons out up significantly more points at home than on the road on grass. I'm hopeful they can keep them under 24 but I wouldn't count 27 as a disgrace given the circumstances. Ultimately it is going to be the big moments that will matter most, getting them off the field and holding them to field goals as well as winning the turn over battle, and if they accomplish those goals then a win should follow, and in the end that's all that matters. If they falter and let up 40 I will be bummed but I won't be dumping on them either way, it's a long season and one game won't make them a good or bad D, it is all about consistency.

 

[coolguy]

I might get a lot of slack for this, but i think this will be the first season since 01-03 where brady is the second best player on the team.

Chandler jones (when he's not being held)may be the best player on this team already.

I think brady is still the best, but jones is arguably a top 5 pass rusher in his second year.

 

[Kontradiction]

I might get a lot of slack for this, but i think this will be the first season since 01-03 where brady is the second best player on the team.

Chandler jones (when he's not being held)may be the best player on this team already.

You might want to wait until Gronk and Amendola come back, join the rookies (who should have a bit more seasoning), and complete the starting offense before making that statement.

 

[Deus Irae]

I might get a lot of slack for this, but i think this will be the first season since 01-03 where brady is the second best player on the team.

Chandler jones (when he's not being held)may be the best player on this team already.

Jones isn't even the best player on the defense.