What's better in the long run?

[KCSVEN]

There is a pretty significant historical difference between the success of a top 5 pick and a pick around 15. So, the only realistic answer, with the simple poll, and being LONG term is a top 5 pick.
However, being in playoff contention may mean that Maye played most of the games and played well which is by far the most important thing long term.
Thus, the reason WHY they got a top 5 pick makes all the difference in the answer. If they got that because Maye looked like crap then I'd rather have the 15 pick and a franchise QB for the long term.
RLKAG I guess?

 

[BelizePats]

I just want to see growth and competitive football. I'm not expecting playoffs.
After the last few years of BB football in Foxboro, being entertained, win or lose, is all I hope for.

 

[Gumby]

There is a pretty significant historical [QUALITY] difference between the success of a top 5 pick and a pick around 15. So, the only realistic answer, with the simple poll, and being LONG term is a top 5 pick.
However, being in playoff contention may mean that Maye played most of the games and played well which is by far the most important thing long term.
Thus, the reason WHY they got a top 5 pick makes all the difference in the answer. If they got that because Maye looked like crap then I'd rather have the 15 pick and a franchise QB for the long term.
RLKAG I guess?

I tweaked your post to where I can agree.

In my mind There are two factors w any #1 rnd pick. Quality & bust rate.

The quality drops dramatically between the 3 thirds, but the ‚bust rate‘ drops fairly slowly. Essentially your chances of getting a starter at 20-30 are not significantly different than 1-10. but if you get a starter; the chances of them being an impact player are probably 2x at 11-20 and 3x at 1-10.

All that said; I would much rather build a Culture of Winning for the future and pick 14-18 then have a mediocre season and pick 5-8.

Later rounds you can move around more easily so I don’t think position matters so much. And I’d rather trade for picks from poorly managed franchises and use their early picks rather than lose to improve Pats own picks.

 

[Ring 6]

There are many, many more examples of these who progressed from mediocre or average to excellent than teams who went form bottom of the league to excellent.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

Let me preface by saying I am rooting for them to win every game. However, if they don't have a handful of high quality picks next year, I don't see how they fill the gaping holes they have, especially on the OL. They need a premium LT. Since 2000, the Pats have had Armstrong, Light, Solder, Wynn, and Brown -- that's it, and all lightyears ahead of what they have now, and superior to any 2025 free agent LTs, who are mostly in their 30s.

Still, I have no faith in Wolf. He made a monumental blunder by selecting a receiver in the 2nd round -- which are a dime a dozen -- over a prospect like Patrick Paul who has impressive physical ability, with all the traits you'd want -- size, strength, agility -- but just needs to be coached up. Wolf needs to go before this team becomes a playoff team, imo.

 

[upstater1]

Winning.

Sinking this team in order to draft a tackle?

Maybe look at the 2022 draft where top 2 tackles in the top 10 Ikem Ekwonu and Evan Neal have busted. Or look at Broderick Jones who we could have taken instead of Christian Gonzalez.

Tackles can bust. They are not guarantees.

 

[KCSVEN]

I tweaked your post to where I can agree.

In my mind There are two factors w any #1 rnd pick. Quality & bust rate.

The quality drops dramatically between the 3 thirds, but the ‚bust rate‘ drops fairly slowly. Essentially your chances of getting a starter at 20-30 are not significantly different than 1-10. but if you get a starter; the chances of them being an impact player are probably 2x at 11-20 and 3x at 1-10.

All that said; I would much rather build a Culture of Winning for the future and pick 14-18 then have a mediocre season and pick 5-8.

Later rounds you can move around more easily so I don’t think position matters so much. And I’d rather trade for picks from poorly managed franchises and use their early picks rather than lose to improve Pats own picks.

On average the higher you pick the better chance of success but also position dependent, Offensive Line not so much a drop off AT ALL but other positions are significant.

Just as an interesting add-on to this: If you take a look at the 2 links below, it seems like you should always trade your picks in current year for an earlier pick the next if you can, once you get to round 4 or 5. Obviously just as a straight statistical analysis not factoring in all the other factors.

From analyses in the links below:

"And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team."

"A few years ago I did a 20 year look at exactly how good your chances are of being a solid starter in the NFL, based on your draft round. I just wanted to mention this as we get salty about how bad this or that guy is playing who was taken in the 3rd or 4th round. Odds are not high you will become a difference maker in the NFL... no matter where you're taken.

1st round - about 50% of players drafted in the 1st round developed into solid NFL starters.

2nd round - about 33% of players drafted in the 2nd round developed into solid NFL starter. From here, it dropped by 50% per round.

3rd round - about 16%.

4th round - about 8%.

5th round - about 4-5%.

6th round - about 2%.

7th round - about 1-2%.

Note: this wasn't based on likelihood of making an NFL roster, it was based on subjective factors, like # of seasons or games starting, statistical performance, Pro Bowls, etc. So it wasn't that only 2% of 6th rounders would be role-players, it was that 2% would become solid starters. Lots of 4th, 5th, 6th rounders develop into decent special teamers or fill-in guys. Almost none of them became every week starters, though. I think I didn't include kickers and punters in the calculation, though."

Odds of becoming a quality player in the NFL - by draft round

Odds of becoming a quality player in the NFL - by draft round

247sports.com

NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very High

More analytics haven’t increased the success rate

www.dailynorseman.com

 

[Real fan 02]

Winning.

Sinking this team in order to draft a tackle?

Maybe look at the 2022 draft where top 2 tackles in the top 10 Ikem Ekwonu and Evan Neal have busted. Or look at Broderick Jones who we could have taken instead of Christian Gonzalez.

Tackles can bust. They are not guarantees.

Highly agree! I think we are starting to see more fans feel this way. We are projected to have a first round pick either way. We went what 8-9 in 2022? Got a pick at 29. I believe we can go 8-9.. or possibly better.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

BB has nothing to do with the strategic decision to draft for need or BPA. Odd comment. Are the BB haters ever going to heal?

I am not a BB hater. My point is that drafting for value over need has drawbacks, too, especially if it doesn't translate into performance on the field.

 

[PancakeBlockPaul]

Still don’t get why someone or a team would want to tank. The chances of a top pick flaming out ie being a bust are huge. Even if they took that top 5 pick and turned it into 4 or more picks, the chances of half of them ****ting the bed are great. Then they have to be ready or be developed for X amount of time/years. Either way it takes time. Just have to do it minus being a loser I guess. Meandering post..

 

[Ross12]

First and foremost, I’ll always root for wins up until the last couple games in a completely lost season (like last year), at which point you may as well hope for some good positioning if you’re looking for that blue chip piece. They were fortunate that they were able to get a prospect like Maye at #3.

Second, I also agree with the thought process that it provides a better pitch to free agents. We saw some FAs overlook this team, even when the money was good, because they want to get paid and also win games. You have to really blow them away to get them to come play on a loser team and even then, they might not. If you can show your trajectory of improvement over time, that you just barely missed the playoffs, and that your new QB looked good in the games he played and is on track for an even better 2025 - that will snag the attention of free agents, and we know they will want to spend big next year.

Having said all of that, who’s to say they can’t BE a playoff team? If they go to 2-0 today, then have the Jets on a short week on Thursday who have their own issues… 3-0 is possibly on the table, and then a Tua-less Miami in week 5 could have them at 4-1? Houston the next week will be tough, but then the schedule lightens up after that.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I am not a BB hater. My point is that drafting for value over need has drawbacks, too, especially if it doesn't translate into performance on the field.

Gonzo, White, and Maye were all BPA. Looks like a good strategy over the last two years.

 

[VrabelJr]

Gonzo, White, and Maye were all BPA. Looks like a good strategy over the last two years.

I don't think Maye was BPA when you consider Alt and Harrison Jr. We went for need.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I don't think Maye was BPA when you consider Alt and Harrison Jr. We went for need.

Disagree. Alt will be good though.

 

[PWRxWLF]

If you draft for need instead of BPA, the advantage drafting earlier in the round is limited. What about Gonzo and White? Both drafted as BPA, and both looking like studs. Gonzo was 17th in the 1st round, White was 14th in the 2nd round. Have to draft BPA!!!

Good thing we have needs practically across the board. Should be able to draft bpa. I took just missing the playoffs meaning we’ll be drafting in the 20’s.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Good thing we have needs practically across the board. Should be able to draft bpa. I took just missing the playoffs meaning we’ll be drafting in the 20’s.

A team missing the playoffs would have its first pick no later than 18th.

 

[PWRxWLF]

A team missing the playoffs would have its first pick no later than 18th.

There you go then. I still think getting a top 5 pick would be better in the long run. If we’re talking short term, sure…win some games. Build momentum and confidence. For the long run though? Get some blue chippers.

 

[mjd1001]

Josh Allen plays reckless football with his body, If he keeps playing the way he has his entire career, odds are he is eventually going to suffer a longer-term injury.

With that said, If Josh Allen misses any number of games this year, I think the Pats CAN actually make the playoffs.

 

[Drunken Cicerone]

Wherever they pick it needs to be good. I don’t see this team pulling down more than 5 wins. As long as this year and last years picks show signs of development I’m good

 

[Nehalem]

The ideal solution is basically today.

You play every game competitively, but ultimately lose late in the 4th quarter or overtime.

Then you grab a few key free agents and draft well, turn all those close loses into wins, and go 20-0 in 2025