What will it take for a Trey Flowers extension?

[Joey007]

What I will say is that next year’s FA class for DE’s is strong.

Maybe Bill goes out and gets one of them instead of Flowers, if a deal can’t be reached?

 

[BadMoFo]

The 2019 FA list for the Pats is fairly large:

Trey Flowers
Chris Hogan
Cordarrelle Patterson
Danny Shelton
Eric Rowe
Jason McCourty
Jeremy Hill
John Simon
Jonathan Jones
Josh Gordon
LaAdrian Waddle
Malcom Brown
Phillip Dorsett
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Trenton Brown

Plus:
Ulrick John
Cody Hollister
Geneo Grissom
James Ferentz
Kenjon Barner
Nicholas Grigsby

Also, the following players will be entering their contract years in 2019:

Brady
DMac
Gronk
Edelman
Allen
Van Noy
Clayborn
Thuney
and all three top special teamers (Slater, King, Ebner)

I think Gordon and Jon Jones will be RFAs next season, so we can bring them both back on the cheap.

 

[Ring 6]

He is a better defender than Gilmore is he not?

No he is not.

we NEED him, and we'll need to pay him, I believe he would be willing to take a small discount to stay here, which might be just enough for us to work with, but I expect it will still be around 13/14M

miller makes 19M/yr as an edge rusher, cox makes 17M/yr as an interior DL

Flowers is better than both and seems to just get better each game

Flowers is good. He is not better than miller or cox.
He will probably be priced out if New England. And we keep winning because we have the discipline to understand the worst way to build a team in this league is to shell out huge contracts.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Cap Space: $5,785,376

Stephen Gostkowski K 35 - $4,500,000
Josh Gordon WR 28 - $3,110,000
Jason McCourty CB 32 - $3,000,000
Ryan Allen P 29 NE - $2,500,000
LaAdrian Waddle RT 28 - $2,000,000
Malcom Brown DT 25 - $3,500,000
Brian Schwenke C 28 NE - $805,000
Trey Flowers DE 26 - $14,500,000
Nicholas Grigsby ILB 27 - Tender $645,000
Trenton Brown LT 26 - $12,000,000
Jonathan Jones CB 25 - $2,500,000
Cordarrelle Patterson WR 28 - $3,500,000

Chris Hogan WR 30
Danny Shelton DT 26
Phillip Dorsett WR 26
Eric Rowe CB 26
John Simon DE 28
Kenjon Barner RB 30
Ulrick John LT 27
James Ferentz C 30
Obi Melifonwu S 24
Cody Hollister WR 25

Extend Brady 2 years (2021) - 29m per | 20 | 33 | 34
Extend McCourty 1 year (2020) - 9m per | 9 | 9
Gronk Retired
Hightower Rest. ($6,070,000)
Allen Extend (2020) - 3.5m per
Slater Retired
Ebner Cut

 

[farn]

Love Flowers. Good pick, good production for the $. Would love to see him in NE for the next few years.

But, it’s the same story as others have outlined. BB wins because he does not overpay. It’s important to stay the course. It has worked before and fans are happier in the end. I cannot imagine the hell coming the Rams’ way.... they better win now.

 

[maineman209]

Danielle Hunter (MIN) might make a good comp to work from (up or down).

He was drafted 13 spots ahead of Flowers in the same 2015 class. Hunter has a ton more sacks (37 total, including 115 already this season). Hunter signed a 5-year extension in June with a $14.4M APY (max), $15M signing bonus, $40M in total guarantees (some for injury only), and performance escalators that could max the contract value at $78M.

Besides Brady, the Pats are paying "upper market" money for ...
CB (Gilmore)
*SAF (DMac)
LB (Hightower)
*TE (Gronk)
OL (Cannon)
OL (Mason)

Note that there are no DL on the list.

Brady, DMac and Gronk will all be in their contract years in 2019, and all are close enough to the end of their careers (but still playing well enough) to perhaps embark on a series of annual 1-year extensions that backload their cap hits.

A new deal for Flowers could also be structured with escalating cap hits so that 2019 & 2020 are relatively inexpensive.

Could happen.

 

[lancerman]

The 2019 FA list for the Pats is fairly large:

Trey Flowers
Chris Hogan
Cordarrelle Patterson
Danny Shelton
Eric Rowe
Jason McCourty
Jeremy Hill
John Simon
Jonathan Jones
Josh Gordon
LaAdrian Waddle
Malcom Brown
Phillip Dorsett
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Trenton Brown

Plus:
Ulrick John
Cody Hollister
Geneo Grissom
James Ferentz
Kenjon Barner
Nicholas Grigsby

Also, the following players will be entering their contract years in 2019:

Brady
DMac
Gronk
Edelman
Allen
Van Noy
Clayborn
Thuney
and all three top special teamers (Slater, King, Ebner)

Keep:
Flowers*
Patterson
Shelton
Rowe
McCourty
Hill
Gordon *
T. Brown *
Gost *

*priority signing

 

[maineman209]

I think Gordon and Jon Jones will be RFAs next season, so we can bring them both back on the cheap.

Maybe "on the cheap", relatively speaking.

Estimated RFA tender amounts for 2019 are (rounded):
1st Round = $4.43M
2nd Round = $3.11M
Original = 2.04M

JJ is in his 3rd season with the team, so the Pats know what they have in him. So, yeah, I'd expect that Pats might try to sign him to a 3-year deal with an APY of something around the level of the 2nd Round tender, or slightly higher.

Gordon is an open question, though, that depends on how well he performs the rest of this season, and perhaps on how he chooses to demonstrate his commitment to sobriety over the off-season. It seems unlikely to me that he'd vigorously resist playing on the 1st Round tender amount for 2019 which is more than he's been paid in total for his NFL career to date (he's still on his 2012 rookie contract at age 27).

If his performance and sobriety remain solid, though, he may be looking for something more on a second (and possibly final) NFL contract, and justified in doing so. Not necessarily a ridiculous amount, but probably something more than $4.43M/yr.

 

[maineman209]

Keep:
Flowers*
Patterson
Shelton
Rowe
McCourty
Hill
Gordon *
T. Brown *
Gost *

*priority signing

I'm pretty certain that Rowe is gone.

Shelton and Malcolm Brown are both question marks, but they could keep one or the other.

I'd re-up Ryan Allen and Jon Jones (neither will be expensive).

Dorsett (young and reliable) will likely come back under a relatively cheap deal (~$3M APY).

Re-up JMac as an insurance policy on a deal that has small enough potential dead money that he could be let go in Camp if Jackson and Dawson make leaps.

Simon might be another cheap keeper similar to JMac

 

[maineman209]

Keep:
Flowers*
Patterson
Shelton
Rowe
McCourty
Hill
Gordon *
T. Brown *
Gost *

*priority signing

As an update, Jeremy Hill just had his reconstructive ACL surgery yesterday.

It's fairly unlikely that he'll be sufficiently recovered by the time free agency begins in early March (less than five months from now) to be able to properly evaluate his chances of being productive.

I'd guess that the Pats do NOT re-sign him until he can pass the physical, which may not be until the start of Camp at the end of July.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

$17M per (average). Will look outrageous initially, then a steal in a few years thanks to the escalating salary cap and new contracts issued as a result.

Plays inside, outside, the run, the pass, high snap counts. Lauded for his technique and his commitment to improving it further. Pats' best total package DL-man since Seymour.

Regards,
Chris

 

[oldrover]

What will it take for a Trey Flowers extension?

 

[condon84]

Pay him.

Depth is great, but having an elite talent is harder to find. You can find depth in the later rounds and scrap heap, as evidence by our roster.

Having Gilmore is evidence of having an elite talent, yet still fill the rest of the roster with quality DBs.

 

[sportnik]

Per Miguel, the Pats can save the following amounts on the cap, by cutting the following players:
- McCourty - $8.9M
- Gronk - $9.4M
- Allen - $6.8
- Hightower - $4.8
- Cannon - $4.1

The Pats have gotten relatively little production out of this group in 18 & I don't think there's any way, with the possible exception of Gronk, any of these guys come back on their existing deals. The point is, there is plenty of cash here to sign Flowers, who is one of the most productive & important pieces on the team.

As a side note, if Detroit was really willing to give a first for Gronk, not making that deal is almost as bad as losing a first round pick for Deflategate. Trading him before this year, for a premium draft pick, would have been the perfect, "trade'em a year to early" Belichick/Auerbach move.

 

[Snooky97]

I’ve said it on other threads, I can see there being some reconstruction of contracts this year -

Cannon 7.5m hit
Allen 7.5m hit
D-Mac 13.5m hit
Brady - without extension is 27m
Clayborn - if cut is 2m dead money.

 

[oceansizer]

Trey Flowers to me is a good player especially for Pats' defensive scheme. He is very important to our front seven but I can't call him a game changer.His sacks stats are not impressive but he is very good at putting pressure on a QB and he is an excellent tackler as a DE.By and large Flowers is a versatile player who fits nicely in BB' game scheme.
We will see what happens. Certainly he is going to be offered some money but I am afraid some teams will be able to match it. Or even give him much more.I also doubt BB will break the bank to keep him.
BTW with all due respect he is not better than Gilmore who shows an elite level playing his position.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

Per Miguel, the Pats can save the following amounts on the cap, by cutting the following players:
- McCourty - $8.9M
- Gronk - $9.4M
- Allen - $6.8
- Hightower - $4.8
- Cannon - $4.1

The Pats have gotten relatively little production out of this group in 18 & I don't think there's any way, with the possible exception of Gronk, any of these guys come back on their existing deals. The point is, there is plenty of cash here to sign Flowers, who is one of the most productive & important pieces on the team.

As a side note, if Detroit was really willing to give a first for Gronk, not making that deal is almost as bad as losing a first round pick for Deflategate. Trading him before this year, for a premium draft pick, would have been the perfect, "trade'em a year to early" Belichick/Auerbach move.

Cannon's deal is pretty fair IMO. 10th biggest for RT and he's a stud.

IMO they will sign Brown. Wynn is going to be our ST

Thuney is a FA in 2020 maybe they can put Wynn there (LG) and draft a RT next year Maybe trade Thuney for a 3rd

Brown(LT) - Wynn(LG/LT) - Andrews(C) - Mason(RG) - Cannon(RT) | Karas(C/RG), Waddle (ST), Pick from Thuney (LG), Schwenke (C/RG)

Ebner and Slater cost almost 6m and they are STer only guys. I know they are good, but they can find young contributors via Draft and they will cost 1/4 i would cut them instead of Cannon.

They have 10 picks(maybe 11). They really need: TE / LB / ED / DL / WR

 

[maineman209]

Cannon's deal is pretty fair IMO. 10th biggest for RT and he's a stud.

IMO they will sign Brown. Wynn is going to be our ST

Thuney is a FA in 2020 maybe they can put Wynn there (LG) and draft a RT next year Maybe trade Thuney for a 3rd

Brown(LT) - Wynn(LG/LT) - Andrews(C) - Mason(RG) - Cannon(RT) | Karas(C/RG), Waddle (ST), Pick from Thuney (LG), Schwenke (C/RG)

Ebner and Slater cost almost 6m and they are STer only guys. I know they are good, but they can find young contributors via Draft and they will cost 1/4 i would cut them instead of Cannon.

They have 10 picks(maybe 11). They really need: TE / LB / ED / DL / WR

Agree, except that the cost effectiveness of elite ST players like Slater and Ebner is really excellent. The Pats really wouldn't save much on the cap - and could cost the team a lot on the field - by attempting to "cheap out" on their ST leaders.

 

[chasa]

Dorsett (young and reliable) will likely come back under a relatively cheap deal (~$3M APY).

that's about twice as much as i'd be willing to pay for Dorsett. Now that Gordon is here Dorsett is getting single digit snaps per game. I think commiting almost as much to Dorsett as we are to 11 is too much.

 

[Clonamery]

Maybe "on the cheap", relatively speaking.

Estimated RFA tender amounts for 2019 are (rounded):
1st Round = $4.43M
2nd Round = $3.11M
Original = 2.04M

JJ is in his 3rd season with the team, so the Pats know what they have in him. So, yeah, I'd expect that Pats might try to sign him to a 3-year deal with an APY of something around the level of the 2nd Round tender, or slightly higher.

Gordon is an open question, though, that depends on how well he performs the rest of this season, and perhaps on how he chooses to demonstrate his commitment to sobriety over the off-season. It seems unlikely to me that he'd vigorously resist playing on the 1st Round tender amount for 2019 which is more than he's been paid in total for his NFL career to date (he's still on his 2012 rookie contract at age 27).

If his performance and sobriety remain solid, though, he may be looking for something more on a second (and possibly final) NFL contract, and justified in doing so. Not necessarily a ridiculous amount, but probably something more than $4.43M/yr.

I think it's certain he's looking for something more on the next contract and why he will continue to try to put his job first:

Josh Gordon Reportedly Could Face Jail Time in Child Support Case