What will it take for a Trey Flowers extension?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Trey Flowers is not a "secret superstar" from the perspective of other teams. Teams spending tens of millions of dollar in analytics and research are likely to care a lot less about sack totals when evaluating a players value.

That said, Flowers is a free agent at the end of this year. For his position, he's going to get a really, really big contract from someone. Please do no add to this thread if you really believe the Patriots are going to sign him to some ludicrously optimistic number like under $10M. With the market for defensive linemen, I think it's fair to say Flowers would get a very minimum of $12M, more likely around $15M, and a higher amount wouldn't be surprising.

We've seen the Patriots walk away from a lot of players at this price tag, although we did see the Patriots sign Gilmore to a huge deal (and he's been worth it.)

How much do you think Flowers is worth, and what are the chances of the Patriots re-signing him? A couple of other factors: A. His versatility and intelligence makes him more valuable to the Patriots than most teams, and B. it isn't always dollar-for-dollar because the Patriots almost never offer the same guarantees as other teams.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Trey Flowers is not a "secret superstar" from the perspective of other teams. Teams spending tens of millions of dollar in analytics and research are likely to care a lot less about sack totals when evaluating a players value.

That said, Flowers is a free agent at the end of this year. For his position, he's going to get a really, really big contract from someone. Please do no add to this thread if you really believe the Patriots are going to sign him to some ludicrously optimistic number like under $10M. With the market for defensive linemen, I think it's fair to say Flowers would get a very minimum of $12M, more likely around $15M, and a higher amount wouldn't be surprising.

We've seen the Patriots walk away from a lot of players at this price tag, although we did see the Patriots sign Gilmore to a huge deal (and he's been worth it.)

How much do you think Flowers is worth, and what are the chances of the Patriots re-signing him? A couple of other factors: A. His versatility and intelligence makes him more valuable to the Patriots than most teams, and B. it isn't always dollar-for-dollar because the Patriots almost never offer the same guarantees as other teams.

I think you hit it on the head. $15M per. And there are at least two other teams out there (the Lions and the Titans) who would be willing to pay that, I believe.

I think he's worth it. But I understand there's only room for so many big contracts on this team. Personally I would have chosen Flowers over Mason this offseason, but sometimes what matters is the willingness of someone to take a deal and provide certainty to the team.

 

[EMpats]

Good question. To me he’s the second or third most valuable player on the team overall and worth whatever it takes to keep him. According to PFF he’s the best overall edge defender in the game. If Nate Solder can get $15 million to play average left tackle then sky is the limit for Flowers. I would give him $15 mil but I doubt BB will. They can create space by getting out or restructuring Hightower, McCourty.

 

[Ross12]

I think due to point A above, as well as the fact that he's been a very hard worker and team-first guy the whole time, there's a good chance they would be willing to be competitive to retain him. That said, if some other team comes out with some totally ridiculous number or offers huge percentages guaranteed, they'll wish him the best and walk away.

I'd love to keep him since I think he's a good example of the type of guy you should keep, like Hightower and McCourty before him most recently.

I also think he's one of the cornerstones of the team and would be hard to replace in many ways on and off the field.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

 

[RobertWeathers]

All I know is his price is going up by the game.

 

[Snooky97]

I can see D-Mac, Allen, Cannon, Clayborn being reconstructed. As well as Brady, not sure what his potential cap could be if we reconstruct his contract

 

[chasa]

if the patriots win the superbowl, he'll match whatever chandler jones got.

 

[maineman209]

The 2019 FA list for the Pats is fairly large:

Trey Flowers
Chris Hogan
Cordarrelle Patterson
Danny Shelton
Eric Rowe
Jason McCourty
Jeremy Hill
John Simon
Jonathan Jones
Josh Gordon
LaAdrian Waddle
Malcom Brown
Phillip Dorsett
Ryan Allen
Stephen Gostkowski
Trenton Brown

Plus:
Ulrick John
Cody Hollister
Geneo Grissom
James Ferentz
Kenjon Barner
Nicholas Grigsby

Also, the following players will be entering their contract years in 2019:

Brady
DMac
Gronk
Edelman
Allen
Van Noy
Clayborn
Thuney
and all three top special teamers (Slater, King, Ebner)

 

[TheButlerDidIt]

I sure wish we could keep him, and I think our best window was to do so last season or during the preseason. Now, unfortunately (for the future), but very fortunately (for the present), his market value has likely exceeded what we are willing to pay.

And the Patriots financial approach toward paying for depth, versus the very top-line talent, has proven to be the right approach. We can have a Clayborn (and his mad, excessive, upstream over-rushing! I kid, I am starting to love him) and decent quality depth along our defensive line precisely because we haven't invested in enormous contracts.

You can say virtually the same thing along the entire roster, with the exception of Gilmore. And although he has proven to be worth the investment, one could argue that paying for a quality corner, particularly in a position that may be less injury prone than a DE, may make sense (but it still remains a perplexing un-Belichickian move).

From my perspective, I would much prefer to have my dollars going to a Sony Michel, Burkhead, James White and Hill backfield than a Leveon Bell backfield (because I think quality depth is better value than "stars" that are one injury away from not contributing) -- regardless of the fact that Hill was a non-factor, as may be Burkhead -- in fact, it's precisely because of these injuries that these financial decisions make sense.

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

I'd franchise him and work from there. He is worth it.

 

[everlong]

So I looked up the DE franchise number for this season and it's 17.4M for DEs, yikes, which means next year will be more. Ziggy Ansah and Demarcus Lawrence were both signed at that value. Granted both of them have had 14+ sacks seasons but Flowers is a more complete player.

I think you might be lucky to get him for 15M/year. Maybe he would take Gilmore's contract of 5/65 with 18M up front as the minimum "hometown" discount.

 

[TheRainMaker]

$15M per year would be laughable. Not saying he won’t get it, but he’d be one of the highest paid DE’s in the league. Hard to justify that. Highest paid DE’s are almost always paid based on sexy sack totals.

This is a good site to compare player contracts:
4-3 Defensive End Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

His ceiling, in my opinion, is around $10M per year.

 

[ALP]

He is a better defender than Gilmore is he not?

we NEED him, and we'll need to pay him, I believe he would be willing to take a small discount to stay here, which might be just enough for us to work with, but I expect it will still be around 13/14M

miller makes 19M/yr as an edge rusher, cox makes 17M/yr as an interior DL

Flowers is better than both and seems to just get better each game

 

[everlong]

$15M per year would be laughable. Not saying he won’t get it, but he’d be one of the highest paid DE’s in the league. Hard to justify that. Highest paid DE’s are almost always paid based on sexy sack totals.

This is a good site to compare player contracts:
4-3 Defensive End Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap

His ceiling, in my opinion, is around $10M per year.

Jabaal Sheard got 8.5/year. I think a lot of teams are going to look at what he did in the playoffs and the fact that in NE you're not allowed to just rush the passer and somebody will offer him a premium.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Jabaal Sheard got 8.5/year. I think a lot of teams are going to look at what he did in the playoffs and the fact that in NE you're not allowed to just rush the passer and somebody will offer him a premium.

You could be right. I didn’t think Chandler Jones would explode like he did in Arizona.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

All I know is his price is going up by the game.

sign the beast

 

[signbabybrady]

He's so good we can't let him walk. Make it rain.

 

[Kontradiction]

An act of God. The Patriots will offer him what they feel is appropriate for him, another team will offer more, and he'll more than likely be gone unless he wants to take the old "hometown discount."

 

[borg]

2018 Flowers (3rd NFL year) on pace for:
6 sacks, 2 pass deflections, 14 QB hits, 2 forced fumbles, 34 solo tackles, 8 tackles for loss

2015 Chandler Jones (4th year in NFL / last NE year):
12.5 sacks, 2 pass deflections, 18 QB hits, 4 forced fumbles, 31 solo tackles, 11 tackles for loss

6'2 vs 6'5
Clean living vs synthetic chronic loving + family insanity genes
Superbowl highlights:
Atlanta and Philly passing at will vs Lombardi hoist

Physically....Flowers is a notch below
Flowers owns the intangibles....and has one year less tread on his tires when the deal gets done.
Eye test: Flowers is improving weekly
Jones had a higher quality Pats DL to work with, giving him more space to attack
Jones 2016 contract:
5 yr / $82.5 mill ....16.5 ave.......$51 mill guarnateed

Flowers screams Pats lifer vs Jones whose path resembles Seymour's "Benjamins First / who cares about losses"