What will it take for a Trey Flowers extension?

[PATSYLICIOUS]

OTC projects the 2019 FT for DEs to be just over $17M. I don't think that will work cap-wise, or that the Pats will use it on Flowers.

Yea thats not happening damn

 

[ALP]

we have to make choices at DB, can't have two highly paid players at the same group, so since I don't see anything happening with Gilmore, I'd look out for something to happen w/ DMac

i would hate so much to lose him

 

[Soliel]

We won’t resign him but what will happen is we will get some guy from buffalo, train him up and there we go. It cracks me up really

 

[Joey007]

Yea thats not happening damn

Here’s what annoys me.

The cap is only going to continue to go up. Why do we keep treating these market value numbers as something we could never touch?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Here’s what annoys me.

The cap is only going to continue to go up. Why do we keep treating these market value numbers as something we could never touch?

I doubt it will go up enough in one year to imagine bb tagging him at 17m. An extension could be possible but no way theyd tag him at that #

 

[AlexB]

I hope he re-signs, but expect him to get more money elsewhere. If we were going to sign him to an extension, the best time would have been last off season, when he may have accepted less money as insurance in case he got injured. Based on the number of DEs on the roster, coaching staff likely trying to find his replacement.

 

[maineman209]

Here’s what annoys me.

The cap is only going to continue to go up. Why do we keep treating these market value numbers as something we could never touch?

Yeah, "market value numbers" appear to be pretty much whatever someone wants to believe they are.

Anyway, there's "can match the market value numbers", and then there's the question of the Pats willingness to do so in the context of maintaining a well-balanced roster with respect to future cap obligations that are already in place, and with respect to how "irreplaceable" Flowers may be to them.

I think it's been fairly difficult for the Pats to find EDGE players whose skill sets are as complete as Flowers' is. So, his value to the Pats is probably relatively high. However, there are other big picture/long term considerations which inevitably create a ceiling there somewhere - we just don't really know where. However, it seems fairly certain to me that the 2019 FT number for DE would exceed that ceiling.

In the past, key players on the Pats have been allowed to, if not encouraged to, explore their own market value with other teams in free agency to compare with the Pats' offer (HT, DMac, Edelman). If Flowers gets an offer from another team that exceeds the Pats' top counter-offer (their ceiling), AND exceeds how much Flowers himself values playing for the Pats, he'll sign elsewhere.

The best we can do is speculate based on comps and what we can gather about the Pats future cap v. roster situations from sources like OTC.

 

[supafly]

The best we can do is speculate based on comps and what we can gather about the Pats future cap v. roster situations from sources like OTC.

@Miguel

 

[luuked]

As a side note, if Detroit was really willing to give a first for Gronk, not making that deal is almost as bad as losing a first round pick for Deflategate. Trading him before this year, for a premium draft pick, would have been the perfect, "trade'em a year to early" Belichick/Auerbach move.

Guess some have come full circle and are now kinda blaming the team for not trading Gronk.

This is delightful..

 

[luuked]

I’ve said it on other threads, I can see there being some reconstruction of contracts this year -

Cannon 7.5m hit
Allen 7.5m hit
D-Mac 13.5m hit
Brady - without extension is 27m
Clayborn - if cut is 2m dead money.

Cannon really doesn't have a huge cap hit. Unless they somehow agree with Trent Brown on an extension there is no way they will let a pro-bowl talent player go over 7.5m.

Since Allen's agent failed to add a higher roster bonus due before FA opens when they restructured this preseason Dwayne might end up in the same cluster**** of a situation as he did last year. Where the Pats are fine with paying him the 500k bonus and keep him on the team through camp just in case someone gets injured and then if nobody unseats him offer him a "be cut or take another paycut" extension in August.

I would assume that DMac will be offered an extension at a lowered rate as he gets into the backend of his career. Ultimately the market will decide if that will be enough to keep him around. If Vince found a place that was willing to overpay for him in his twilight years it is not unreasonable to assume that other teams might be willing to do that for DMac. Maybe we can get the two McCourtys in a package deal.

I am not sure Brady will get any extension from the Pats anymore. BB might be perfectly happy just tagging Brady at this point to limit cap space exposure if something were to happen to Brady or if he'd just physically could not do it anymore. This is the most interesting plot to play out next season.

I have no strong feelings about Clayborn. He is a nice piece when used as third down rusher but questionable if he is really worth the money he is getting. But then again he seemed to build his confidence in the last few games so maybe he will be a superior player in the second part of this season.

Just thoughts on the names you mentioned..

 

[Biffins]

You could be right. I didn’t think Chandler Jones would explode like he did in Arizona.

Ignoring Chandler's rookie season as learning,

For us he played 16+10+15 = 41 games in seasons 2-4 for 11.5+6+12.5 sacks = 30 sacks, and 79+43+44 = 166 tackles

For Arizona last 3 years he's played 16+16+7 = 39 games, for 11+17+6.5= 34.5 sacks + 49+59+25 = 133 tackles.

Not sure he exploded....... He has 4 more sacks and 30 less tackles in about the same number of games since he's rushing more. I would argue we got better use of him overall with the extra tackles while dropping in coverage or run-defending instead of only rushing passer. We got plenty of sacks as well.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

They paid Mayo and HT a LOT of money - set market price
They offered Solder a LOT of money - really close to what he got (He left because of his family)
They paid DMAC a lot of money - market price
They paid GRONK a lot of money - set market price
They paid GILMORE a lot of money - market price

Collins, Jones, Butler and Logan Ryan -> They chose to let them go.
They wanted to upgrade Logan (Gilmore).
Butler was benched.
Jones: Marijuana issues
Collins lack of discipline set his fate

I can't remember one FA as good as Trey that they just said 'Yeah Bye. We are in cap hell so we can't retain him.'

They have more than $113,874,096 for the next 2 seasons

If you pay all the core players market deals we will still have money to pay Trey.

Tom Brady 31M
Julian Edelman 8M
Devin McCourty 9M
Dwayne Allen 5M
Kyle Van Noy 6M
Adrian Clayborn 6M
Joe Thuney 8M
Stephen Gostkowski 9M
Cordarrelle Patterson 8M
Chris Hogan Let goM
Jason McCourty 9M
Trey Flowers 34M
Trenton Brown Let go
Jonathan Jones 5M
---------------------------
$ 132M

Players Under Contract: 37 + Rookie class from 2019 and 2020 (13 players ate least IMO)

Rob Gronkowski + 10M if retires
Matt Slater + 2.5M if retires
Nate Ebner + 2.5M if cut
-------------------------------------------
117M

Josh Gordon
Grisgby
---------------------------------
121M

Brandon King
Ted Karras
Elandon Roberts
Jacob Hollister
Adam Butler
Keionta Davis
Danny Shelton
Ryan Allen
Malcom Brown
LaAdrian Waddle
Phillip Dorsett
John Simon
Brian Hoyer
Jeremy Hill
Eric Rowe
Brian Schwenke
Kenjon Barner
Ulrick John
James Ferentz

 

[Jackson 2]

You really need to go out and get some fresh air.

Hopefully in traffic with a blindfold on...

 

[mgteich]

GORDON
There are no bad results.
1) We sign him for at least 2 years.
2) We tender him at $4.43M and renegotiate later.
3) We tender him and someone gives us a 1st.

JONES
The simple question is whether we risk losing him for $1.3M. IMHO, we should give him $4.43M for 2019, and that any long-term contracts start with that compensation for 2019.

Maybe "on the cheap", relatively speaking.

Estimated RFA tender amounts for 2019 are (rounded):
1st Round = $4.43M
2nd Round = $3.11M
Original = 2.04M

JJ is in his 3rd season with the team, so the Pats know what they have in him. So, yeah, I'd expect that Pats might try to sign him to a 3-year deal with an APY of something around the level of the 2nd Round tender, or slightly higher.

Gordon is an open question, though, that depends on how well he performs the rest of this season, and perhaps on how he chooses to demonstrate his commitment to sobriety over the off-season. It seems unlikely to me that he'd vigorously resist playing on the 1st Round tender amount for 2019 which is more than he's been paid in total for his NFL career to date (he's still on his 2012 rookie contract at age 27).

If his performance and sobriety remain solid, though, he may be looking for something more on a second (and possibly final) NFL contract, and justified in doing so. Not necessarily a ridiculous amount, but probably something more than $4.43M/yr.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Per Miguel, the Pats can save the following amounts on the cap, by cutting the following players:
- McCourty - $8.9M
- Gronk - $9.4M
- Allen - $6.8
- Hightower - $4.8
- Cannon - $4.1

The Pats have gotten relatively little production out of this group in 18 & I don't think there's any way, with the possible exception of Gronk, any of these guys come back on their existing deals. The point is, there is plenty of cash here to sign Flowers, who is one of the most productive & important pieces on the team.

As a side note, if Detroit was really willing to give a first for Gronk, not making that deal is almost as bad as losing a first round pick for Deflategate. Trading him before this year, for a premium draft pick, would have been the perfect, "trade'em a year to early" Belichick/Auerbach move.

I highly doubt they’ll cut 3 team captains, it’s more likely that they’ll restructure their deals to free up cap space

The patriots would not be a better football team by cutting the players you listed just to free up cap, you need to then replace them with that money which would be very difficult to do

Allen makes way too much as a blocking specialist, but he’s an elite blocker and shouldn’t be cut, just restructured

Cannon when healthy is a very good RT, so I’d restructure and put some incentives in there based on game availability

You aren’t going to find another safety as good as McCourty in the draft or free agency, period. I’m sure he’d restructure to free up cap space tho. It’s funny, people were screaming for so long about the dire safety situation for years and years, then we drafted mccourty and he became an elite freee safety, now people want to cut him and think that the position will magically fix itself... elite free safeties are RARE in this league... there are maybe only 2 or 3 safeties in the league that are better than him and he’s a team captain to boot.

People saying he lost a step are obviously blind as a bat, since he was officially recorded at 22+ mph on his pick 6, which was the FASTEST SPEED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NFL.. that includes offensive players like Brandin Cooks and Tyreek Hill. But sure, let’s cut him to free up some cap space!

They JUST gave Hightower his deal last year, so I find it hard to believe they’d cut him so soon after considering he was living up to that contract until his injury

They also just restructured Gronks deal with playing time and production incentives, which he may not even hit. If there is something bad wrong with him then I would definitely consider trading him away, I’m sure some team could be duped into giving up a 1st or 2nd for him and it seems like the offense has evolved to be able to operate without him, so he’s more of a luxury at this point

 

[chasa]

Here’s what annoys me.

The cap is only going to continue to go up. Why do we keep treating these market value numbers as something we could never touch?

I think it's mostly because of the way the current team is structured, Depth > marginal talent increase.

The lack of cap space means that the patriots tend to go for a few cheaper options that are 90% as good as the expensive top tier. I don't think BB wants to spend top5 money on a guy unless he's a generational talent. As we've seen with gilmore and to a degree Revis/DMac/Hightower BB will pay players pretty close to top dollar.

I think trey flowers is pretty good, but i don't think BB is willing to pay him top dollar when he can probably get someone that will be almost as effective for less then half the cost.

 

[203Pat]

I feel like at some point a guy we draft and develop that turns into a star player will end up getting the big market value contract from us. I doubt it will be Trey unfortunately.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I feel like at some point a guy we draft and develop that turns into a star player will end up getting the big market value contract from us. I doubt it will be Trey unfortunately.

I feel Trey's fate was sealed when we signed our very own Shaq Mason. I feel we still have a shot as long as he stays under 12 sacks, but if he exceeds that number we will have to find Harry Potter to work some magic if we are to keep him.

 

[mgteich]

I feel like at some point a guy we draft and develop that turns into a star player will end up getting the big market value contract from us. I doubt it will be Trey unfortunately.

Devin McCourty says hi

 

[VectorPrime]

Devin McCourty says hi

Top end Safetys are a lot cheaper than top end edge rushers.