What trade moves should the Patriots make before the deadline?

[ToonPatriot]

Says who ?

Who was the most recent QB who was taken first -- not necessarily 1st pick but the first QB to go -- and actually fulfilled those expectations ?

Kyler and Burrow have had a nice start but that's too early to tell.

Mayfield has not so far. Trubisky certainly hasn't. Goff ? Winston ? If we include the second picks we can add Wentz and Mariota to the this list of meh.

Luck was the closest to fulfilling his promise and that was 9 years (!!) ago.

The point is that you can't assume that anyone will definitely work out especially not in high variance positions like QB. I am not advocating to do either of the two -- that is offseason talk -- but lets not pretend anything in relation to the draft is a "you are set" situation as it involves a lot of uncertainty. There is a sensible discussion to be had about trading down and facilitating a rebuild of the rest of the team.

The lynchpin is how a team feels about a QB prospect relative to others available in the draft. And just because the media and some twitter folks have jerk off sessions about one in particular it doesn't automatically follow that a teams evaluation will be the same. Maybe internally the gap between Lawrence and whoever ends up being QB2 is much smaller than the value you'd get from trading down.

We will see. But being so dogmatic about the QB1 prospect has often not worked out as spectacularly as people think.

Luck was the closest college prospect to Lawrence.

I get/agree with your overall point on top QB picks not guaranteeing success but only injuries will stop Lawrence from being a successful NFL QB. I have no doubt the Jets will have to get their house in order to stop Lawrence pulling an Eli but Luck was able to do a lot in spite of Indy not cause of them.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

Luck was the closest college prospect to Lawrence.

I get/agree with your overall point on top QB picks not guaranteeing success but only injuries will stop Lawrence from being a successful NFL QB. I have no doubt the Jets will have to get their house in order to stop Lawrence pulling an Eli but Luck was able to do a lot in spite of Indy not cause of them.

You resumed perfectly what was my point basically.

i talked specifically about Lawrence and not about generally top selected QBs.

 

[luuked]

Luck was the closest college prospect to Lawrence.

I get/agree with your overall point on top QB picks not guaranteeing success but only injuries will stop Lawrence from being a successful NFL QB. I have no doubt the Jets will have to get their house in order to stop Lawrence pulling an Eli but Luck was able to do a lot in spite of Indy not cause of them.

With all due respect we hear this almost every year: "But this time it is different.."

And statistically speaking at some point it will be true. But that doesn't mean that the only correct answer to the question is take QB1 at 1. Teams get to the SB every year with QBs that were not taken first.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

With all due respect we hear this almost every year: "But this time it is different.."

And statistically speaking at some point it will be true. But that doesn't mean that the only correct answer to the question is take QB1 at 1. Teams get to the SB every year with QBs that were not taken first.

Imo, the way you rebuild, it is find your QB as quick as possible and add pieces around him.

i would agree that if you already have a decent QB you don’t take a QB at 1. And you try to turn the 1st into multiple talented player. But I could argue that if you pick at first you probably don’t have a good QB or he was injured all year. But if you don’t have a QB what is the point to waste talent with nobody to throw the ball to them.

Look at Houston, they had decent talent and teams the last few years but until they had Watson they were going nowhere because they didn’t have a QB.

if you don’t have a QB, in my opinion, you can’t pass on a guy of the level of Lawrence. I can assure you that whatever team who will pick 1st and don’t have a QB will take Lawrence and will not trade the pick. I think you watched « Draft day » too many times.

edit: Houston started a playoff game with Hoyer at one point. That is crazy. I don’t want to be in this situation.

 

[luuked]

Look at you Houston, they had decent talent and teams the last few years but until they had Watson they were going nowhere because they didn’t have a QB.

And for every Houston you can point to Minnesota having a run with Keenum, Rams with Goff, Eagles with Foles/Wentz, Tennessee with Tannehill, 49ers with JimmyG. It happens every year. Those are all QBs that swing between above average to great depending on the day, which is not something you want out of a #1 pick.


Again, I am not trying to convince you it is wrong to take Lawrence at #1. I am saying that it all depends on how a team evaluates the overall class and that there are other valid alternatives. If in a team's projection the gap between QB1 and QB2/QB3 is not big then picking up another couple of earlyish picks might be more transformative for a team then going with QB1.

I will jump out of this conversation because to me this is something for the offseason where we actually know where we draft, have more info about the draft class and can therefore speculate more clearly about various scenarios.

 

[Triumph]

Lots of rumors.

WR Will Fuller
QB Mick Tribisky which is a pipe dream.
WR Julio Jones
TE Gerald Everett

 

[scott99]

Luckily, nobody asked you or cares about your prediction.

Patsboy10 said, “you really see 10 losses ? ”, so I was just answering/replying to that question. Thanks for your incredibly insightful input though.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

And for every Houston you can point to Minnesota having a run with Keenum, Rams with Goff, Eagles with Foles/Wentz, Tennessee with Tannehill, 49ers with JimmyG. It happens every year. Those are all QBs that swing between above average to great depending on the day, which is not something you want out of a #1 pick.


Again, I am not trying to convince you it is wrong to take Lawrence at #1. I am saying that it all depends on how a team evaluates the overall class and that there are other valid alternatives. If in a team's projection the gap between QB1 and QB2/QB3 is not big then picking up another couple of earlyish picks might be more transformative for a team then going with QB1.

I will jump out of this conversation because to me this is something for the offseason where we actually know where we draft, have more info about the draft class and can therefore speculate more clearly about various scenarios.

They made exactly one run each. If your goal it is to be relevant one year sure but the goal is to have a team that can have a run every year. You can’t do it with a QB of the level of keenum.

Edit: and by the way Goff was a number one pick

 

[Triumph]

Luck was the closest college prospect to Lawrence.

I get/agree with your overall point on top QB picks not guaranteeing success but only injuries will stop Lawrence from being a successful NFL QB. I have no doubt the Jets will have to get their house in order to stop Lawrence pulling an Eli but Luck was able to do a lot in spite of Indy not cause of them.

Lawrence is different.

He lost his first playoff game last season to # 1 ranked LSU. Prior to that Lawrence took down top ranked Norte Dame, Ohio State and Alabama. Lawrence currently has a .750 winning percentage vs upper echelon teams in the post season. The resume of beating good teams is there.

Lawrence just threw his first INT in nearly 1 year. He was approximately 15 passes away from breaking Russell Wilson NCAA record. To date and over the course of 36 games Lawrence has thrown 14 INTs. His WRs are not running wide open game after game. Lawrence throws into tight windows and between defenders.

The Jets are going to get a franchise QB worth keeping around.

 

[lancerman]

Even if they had the first pick in the draft I am not sure why people would assume they'd take a QB with that. Historically the first QB taken is not more successful than others around the top 12.

The most likely scenario is that at top 3 draft pick would turn into multiple first and second rounders over the next couple of years through a series of trades down.

If you look it at that way in a total vacuum then yes. But the contextual situation is that Lawrence is the best prospect since Luck 9 years ago who was the best prospect since Peyton Manning 13 years before that who was the best prospect since Elway before him.

You don’t not draft Lawrence unless you have a young proven QB locked down.

The value game does not apply when it comes to hitting on QB’s. You get the QB.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Cowboys will trade or cut Dontari Poe, Daryl Worley

The Cowboys are continuing to get rid of under-performing veteran players on their under-performing defense.

profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

 

[lancerman]

Says who ?

Who was the most recent QB who was taken first -- not necessarily 1st pick but the first QB to go -- and actually fulfilled those expectations ?

Kyler and Burrow have had a nice start but that's too early to tell.

Mayfield has not so far. Trubisky certainly hasn't. Goff ? Winston ? If we include the second picks we can add Wentz and Mariota to the this list of meh.

Luck was the closest to fulfilling his promise and that was 9 years (!!) ago.

The point is that you can't assume that anyone will definitely work out especially not in high variance positions like QB. I am not advocating to do either of the two -- that is offseason talk -- but lets not pretend anything in relation to the draft is a "you are set" situation as it involves a lot of uncertainty. There is a sensible discussion to be had about trading down and facilitating a rebuild of the rest of the team.

The lynchpin is how a team feels about a QB prospect relative to others available in the draft. And just because the media and some twitter folks have jerk off sessions about one in particular it doesn't automatically follow that a teams evaluation will be the same. Maybe internally the gap between Lawrence and whoever ends up being QB2 is much smaller than the value you'd get from trading down.

We will see. But being so dogmatic about the QB1 prospect has often not worked out as spectacularly as people think.

Lawrence by virtually every evaluator is about as close to a no brainer as you will ever get at the QB position in the draft. He is not Goff who was part of a draft that was considered weak. He is not Mayfield who was in a debate with several other players about half of which are working out while the other half aren’t.

Lawrence is in the Luck/Manning/Elway category of “this is the best you’ll ever have to guarantee as you can ever draft”. There’s always the possibility that it doesn’t work out, but it would be one of the all time biggest draft busts in history and nobody would ever hold it against you.

You don’t play games with this position. You don’t say “oh Lawrence clearly has the highest grade but I’m okay with Fields of it means extra picks”. You just the guy you think is best.

 

[lancerman]

With all due respect we hear this almost every year: "But this time it is different.."

And statistically speaking at some point it will be true. But that doesn't mean that the only correct answer to the question is take QB1 at 1. Teams get to the SB every year with QBs that were not taken first.

No we don’t. You very rarely have a situation where for 3 years the consensus is that this guy would be the clear number 1 in any of the subsequent drafts.

 

[PatsBoy12]

 

[Tunescribe]

With the Pats going nowhere and the season potentially shutting down weeks from now, BB should hold a fire sale and maximize assets for 2021.

 

[luuked]

There’s always the possibility that it doesn’t work out, but it would be one of the all time biggest draft busts in history and nobody would ever hold it against you.

Statements like that just make my head hurt. It implies that outside opinions and people holding a decision against someone have some kind of relevance.

The only thing that matters is whatever your own evaluation process tells you. That's why you employ dozens of scouts with different backgrounds and pay millions of dollars through a season to the entire department.

And this goes beyond scouting but decision making in general. In terms of process it is completely irrelevant if the outcome was negative and external entities (e.g. fans or the media) are holding it against you as long as the decision making was sound.

I don't think anyone in Foxboro cares one bit about the media/fan/expert reaction to anything they do in football ops. And the same will be true for whatever will happen in the 21 draft.

 

[KDPPatsfan85]

 

[DaBruinz]

the jets are tanking to get Lawrence they are done with Darnold. Why would I want to go with Smith or Keenum. They can’t play. At least Darnold is young and has potential.

Edit: I will concede that I would be an off-season trade

Because I don't see Darnold being anything spectactular. Thought he was over-hyped when he came out. He's shown nothing to make me thing otherwise. Additionally, it could be that the NFL has been trying so hard to hype the guy that I don't see what others do..

 

[DaBruinz]

With the Pats going nowhere and the season potentially shutting down weeks from now, BB should hold a fire sale and maximize assets for 2021.

Where do you get that the league is potentially shutting down for weeks?

You don't "maximize assets" by having a "Fire Sale". Fire sale implies you're getting rid of everything regardless of what you get in return. Maximizing assets is doing just that. Getting the MOST ROI. Meaning you get people into a bidding war for the likes Gilmore and Thuney.

Pats currently have 45 players under contract for next season with a minimum of 43M from the new cap and 22.7M in carry over. They also have 4 Comp picks coming, not to mention 6 of 7 of their own picks..

Free Agents include:
Thuney, Andrews, White, Eleumenor, Adam Butler, J. McCourty, L. Guy, Simon, Burkhead, Newton, Brooks, Byrd, Davis, Calhoun, Bethel, Folk, Hoyer, Copeland, Ferentz, Rivers, Wise, JCJackson (RFA).

The 4 in Bold are the only MUST re-sign in my opinion. Butler and Calhoun would be nice, but they aren't huge signings either way.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Time to burn it down and go full rebuild mode.