Wes Welker at 8 million per year for 5 years?

[mgteich]

Re: Patriots and Welker discussing new contract

Do you understand that a 4th year and 5th year have value only to the patriots? We would spread the bonus over more years and have the option to have Welker's services for Year 4 and 5. For example adding a 4th year at $2M a year would have great value to the patriots.

Consider a $24 million contract, including a $9M bonus, with salaries of one million for the first year and $7M a year after the first year. The first 2 years would be guaranteed for a total of seventeen million guaranteed in two years.

The extra years at perhaps $7M a year are for the convenience of the patriots. Welker gets nothing out of it UNLESS the patriots choose to not to cut him in the 3rd or 4th year.

Such a contract is really a 2 year $8.5M a year contract, with the patriots having the option on Welker's services after that, with the ability to cut him at any time.

To put in another way, if the 3rd, 4th and 5th year were $20M a year, it is the patriots who lose value. This would be a 2 year contract with no real option for the patriots.

So, the LOWER the 3rd year, 4th year and 5th year salary, the better for the patriots.
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IMHO, the reason that a contract wasn't signed last year and so far this year is that the patriots want to guarantee less money than Welker is willing to sign for.

I can't see giving him a 5 year deal...with WRs in their mid 30s,thats risky money.

I think he will be productive at an elite level for 2 or 3 more years but after that......

 

[Uncle Rico]

Via NFL.com, Curran reports some progress being made. Zero details and no links from NFL.com, so maybe this was an on-air report?

 

[UofApatsfan]

Do you all think 8 Mil a year is too much for Wes Welker?

Without a doubt. When you already have two tight ends who occupy as much cap as Gronk and Hernandez, paying a slot receiver who's horrid at making plays outside the numbers 8 mil a year is a horrible way to allocate cap space.

 

[PP2]

Sorry if I'm missing something, but it seems to me that the $8m/5 is pure speculation on the part of Rappaport who doesn't really have a football mind to begin with.

 

[Jimke]

Without a doubt. When you already have two tight ends who occupy as much cap as Gronk and Hernandez, paying a slot receiver who's horrid at making plays outside the numbers 8 mil a year is a horrible way to allocate cap space.

Are you sure you mean Wes Welker? I've attended 20 regular season games over the last two years. Welker is the player most likely to catch a first down pass when it is third down. If they let Welker slip thru their fingers,
it will be a disasterous mistake.

 

[patfanken]

Without reading all the posts. The more one thinks of it the more 5 years makes sense. Like I'm sure several people must have already stated, those last 2 or 3 years are probably built in to pad the agents ego and to spread the guaranteed and or signing bonus portion of the deal out over a longer time.

The end result is that Wes gets a lot of money over the first 2 years and the Pats get a low cap number for the first couple of years and a manageable dead money numbers the last 2 years.

 

[Jimke]

Re: Patriots and Welker discussing new contract

Do you understand that a 4th year and 5th year have value only to the patriots? We would spread the bonus over more years and have the option to have Welker's services for Year 4 and 5. For example adding a 4th year at $2M a year would have great value to the patriots.

Consider a $24 million contract, including a $9M bonus, with salaries of one million for the first year and $7M a year after the first year. The first 2 years would be guaranteed for a total of seventeen million guaranteed in two years.

The extra years at perhaps $7M a year are for the convenience of the patriots. Welker gets nothing out of it UNLESS the patriots choose to not to cut him in the 3rd or 4th year.

Such a contract is really a 2 year $8.5M a year contract, with the patriots having the option on Welker's services after that, with the ability to cut him at any time.

To put in another way, if the 3rd, 4th and 5th year were $20M a year, it is the patriots who lose value. This would be a 2 year contract with no real option for the patriots.

So, the LOWER the 3rd year, 4th year and 5th year salary, the better for the patriots.
========

IMHO, the reason that a contract wasn't signed last year and so far this year is that the patriots want to guarantee less money than Welker is willing to sign for.

Good explanation on the 5 years. The NHL is where you see very long out contracts for salary cap purposes.

 

[Ivan]

Without reading all the posts. The more one thinks of it the more 5 years makes sense. Like I'm sure several people must have already stated, those last 2 or 3 years are probably built in to pad the agents ego and to spread the guaranteed and or signing bonus portion of the deal out over a longer time.

The end result is that Wes gets a lot of money over the first 2 years and the Pats get a low cap number for the first couple of years and a manageable dead money numbers the last 2 years.

Ken, this is the argument that has been made from the very start of this debate, Welker is going to continue to produce at a very high level for at least 2-3 more years and a 5/40/20 guaranteed year deal creates a low risk situation for the Patriots.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Deal by end of day?

 

[Froob]

Can't wait for this deal to get done. Didn't most of y'all already assume Welker was gone? Would hate to see Welker in any other uniform, get this man a ring!

 

[patfanken]

Ken, this is the argument that has been made from the very start of this debate, Welker is going to continue to produce at a very high level for at least 2-3 more years and a 5/40/20 guaranteed year deal creates a low risk situation for the Patriots.

Your lips to god's ear, Ivan. I certainly hope so, but I'd build in a lot of protection for the Pats over the course of that contract if it.s that long.

Lets assume your numbers are the correct raw figures. 5 yrs, 40MM with 2OMM guaranteed. I think that's way too high, but for the sake of discussion, lets use those numbers. I'd be interested to see how you would structure it over the next 5 years. What would play up front, what would you guarantee. what is your escape plan? If they structure the contract like the Ravens did Flacco's deal Welker's cap number could be as low as $3MM for the first year.

Personally I think the number is going to be 5 years for 32MM with $14-16 guaranteed. and $16-20MM coming to him in the first 2 years by way of signing bonuses incentives and guaranteed money. Nothing against Welker but the Pats are NOT going to want to pay Welker more than that for what they expect to be lower production.

I honestly believe that the Pats believe that Welker's production is likely to go down, over the next few years simply because a percentage of his targets will be reduced as Gronk, Hernandez and the RB's increase. That his opportunities will also decrease because we will likely run the ball a bit more. All of these things will result in Welker getting less personal product,while hopefully the overall offense will continue to thrive. Perhaps the end result will be fewer opportunities but more yards per catch.for Wes....who knows.

Injuries kept the Pats from looking to refocus their offense away from Welker last season Its not an insult to Wes, if they do it this year. 90 catches and 1000 yds would be a great season for him as long as we have balanced out the offense more. this coming season.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Can't wait for this deal to get done. Didn't most of y'all already assume Welker was gone? Would hate to see Welker in any other uniform, get this man a ring!

I like 3 more rings better than 1.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Lets assume your numbers are the correct raw figures. 5 yrs, 40MM with 2OMM guaranteed. I think that's way too high, but for the sake of discussion, lets use those numbers. I'd be interested to see how you would structure it over the next 5 years. What would play up front, what would you guarantee. what is your escape plan? If they structure the contract like the Ravens did Flacco's deal Welker's cap number could be as low as $3MM for the first year.

I'm not Ivan, but I think you have to spread the cap hit out and make the signing bonus so that he is not too expensive to cut after 3 years, at age 34.

I'd give him an $8 million signing bonus, so that it's basically less than $4 million to cut him in three years. Maybe cap hits something like:

2013 $5m salary, 1.75m bonus: 6.75m hit
2014 $5m salary, 1.75m bonus: 6.75m hit
2015 $7m salary, 1.75m bonus: 8.75m hit
Cut number end of 2015: 3.5m
2016 $7m salary, 1.75m bonus: 8.75m hit
2017 $8m salary, 1.75m bonus: 9.75m hit

Maybe that would be a mistake -- maybe the better option, since cap space carries over, is to take a small hit in 2013 and push back some $10m years in the middle, but I think we have the money now, let's take some of the medicine now.

 

[Jimke]

No way Welker signs a contract with only an 8 mil. bonus. He
will get the 5 year/ 40 mil. 20 mil. guaranteed from the Patriots or
from another team two hours after free agency begins.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

No way Welker signs a contract with only an 8 mil. bonus. He
will get the 5 year/ 40 mil. 20 mil. guarateed from the Patriots or
from another team two hours after free agency begins.

Welker is staying a patriot. To let him go would be suicide for this upcoming season especially if they drop lloyd

 

[Jimke]

Welker is staying a patriot. To let him go would be suicide for this upcoming season especially if they drop lloyd

I hope you're right but I have see this team do some pretty weird things in the 54 years that I have followed them.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I hope you're right but I have see this team do some pretty weird things in the 54 years that I have followed them.

Letting welker go AND lloyd...like i said would be suicide for the season. it won't happen

 

[Joker]

the way everyone is so silent on the matter makes me think that Welker and the Pats are close to a deal, if it isn't already hashed out...

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

the way everyone is so silent on the matter makes me think that Welker and the Pats are close to a deal, if it isn't already hashed out...

there was a report today..forgot who tweeted it but said sides were making progress...so i think it will be soon

 

[Archeryaddict12]

the way everyone is so silent on the matter makes me think that Welker and the Pats are close to a deal, if it isn't already hashed out...

Yep, I think it's gonna be a patriot still.