We're on to Washington

[mayoclinic]

I think a lot if these are a question of opportunity and hedging bets.

- Hunter Henry, Kevin Byard and possibly Mike Onwenu could easily be extended another year. OTOH, if the opportunity arises to add talent at the position all could be gone.

- Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane and Rhamondre Stevenson could be kept on the longer side or moved on from earlier, as well.

Self-evaluation will be key.

 

[Ring 6]

I think they believe that Byard has 2 years left in him. Davis is a bump and hold guy due to his lack of speed. Not sure how long he will last.

Davis was good last year.
Byard only signed for 1 year.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Davis was good last year.
Byard only signed for 1 year.

Yup that is why I said "I think they believe that Byard has two years left" (since Byard only signed for 1 year), and "not sure how long he (Davis) will last" (since Davis was good last year). I thought the inference was obvious.

You are highlighting my inference by agreeing with my post? Or you are disagreeing because you could not understand the inference?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I think a lot if these are a question of opportunity and hedging bets.

- Hunter Henry, Kevin Byard and possibly Mike Onwenu could easily be extended another year. OTOH, if the opportunity arises to add talent at the position all could be gone.

- Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane and Rhamondre Stevenson could be kept on the longer side or moved on from earlier, as well.

Self-evaluation will be key.

I am with you- and in the minority- that Henry could easily be extended a year if he plays well. He is a steady, productive, professional veteran. He is still Leone Drake Maye leans on, on and off the field.

Certain, if Raridon looks clearly ready to take the job, that won’t happen. But I think most Patsfans underestimate how difficult it is to replace Henry’s production with a guy taken a pick 90 or later. George Kittle is one of one.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

George Kittle is one of one.

I agree. People like to make the most ridiculous comparisons.

 

[dliverey44]

I am with you- and in the minority- that Henry could easily be extended a year if he plays well. He is a steady, productive, professional veteran. He is still Leone Drake Maye leans on, on and off the field.

Certain, if Raridon looks clearly ready to take the job, that won’t happen. But I think most Patsfans underestimate how difficult it is to replace Henry’s production with a guy taken a pick 90 or later. George Kittle is one of one.

Funny enough, Raridon says he tries to model his game after Kittle.

 

[Ring 6]

Yup that is why I said "I think they believe that Byard has two years left" (since Byard only signed for 1 year), and "not sure how long he (Davis) will last" (since Davis was good last year). I thought the inference was obvious.

You are highlighting my inference by agreeing with my post? Or you are disagreeing because you could not understand the inference?

You called David a bump and hold guy and you aren’t sure how long he will last. I responded that he was good last year. I don’t infer “he’s a bump and hold guy”’to concur with good.

I think if they believed Byard has 2 years left they would have signed him for 2. What evidence do you have to supporting thinking they believe he has 2 years?

So no I understood and disagreed.

 

[mayoclinic]

To me, this is the really fun part of climbing the mountain: no one has the faintest clue how to really evaluate talent this far out, if at all.

Here's Dane Brugler's 2026 pre-season top 50, published last August, just before the 2025 CFB season:

NFL Draft 2026 rankings: Arch Manning, Caleb Downs in top 5 of Dane Brugler’s initial board

Quarterbacks and offensive tackles could dominate the early rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft, but a defensive tackle holds the No. 1 spot.

www.nytimes.com

Lots of day 3 guys on that list. No Arvell Reese (5), Mansoor Delane (6), Ty Simpson (13), Vega Ioane (14), Blake Miller (17), Monroe Freeling (19), Akheem Mesidor (22), Malachi Lawrence (23), KC Concepcion (24), Dillon Thieneman (25), Keylan Rutledge (26), Chris Johnson (27), Omar Cooper (30) or Jadarian Price (32).

That's 44% (14/32) 1st round picks that were not even in Brugler's top 50. Neither were De'Zhaun Stribling (33), Chase Bisontis (34), Kayden McDonald (36), Colton Hood (37), Treydan Stukes (38), Denzel Boston (39), Cashius Howell (41), Jacob Rodriguez (43), Derrick Moore (44), Josiah Trotter (46), Germie Bernard (47), Lee Hunter (49) or D'Angelo Ponds (50).

So just before the CFB season started - 4 months from now for the 2026 season - Brugler's top 50 correctly predicted only 23 out of the top 50 actual picks, and only 3 of the remaining 14 2nd round picks.

Here's Brugler's next top 50, from November 11, 3+ months into the CFB season:

2026 NFL Draft rankings: Which prospects earned a spot on latest top-50 board?

For all its faults, the 2026 quarterback class has generated some positive momentum — just not as much as Ohio State's Arvell Reese.

www.nytimes.com

No Blake Miller, Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor, Malachi Lawrence, Keylan Rutledge, Chris Johnson, Peter Woods or Omar Cooper. That's 25% of the eventual 1st round that weren't even in Brugler's top 50.

And the thing is, Brugler's good. Very good. He and Daniel Jeremiah are probably the 2 best. But they still are way off.

Obviously, you can't predict the emergence of an Arvell Reese or Jacob Rodriguez. You can't predict injuries. You can't predict who will go back to school. But there were also some terrible evaluations - LT Overton never should have been on anyone's top 50 much less 23 oveeall, Kaleb Tiernan never belonged on a top 40 list. That's like drafting Ron Brace at 40, or Jordan Richards at 64. Incomprehensible.

So looking forward to the 2026 CFB season 2027 draft, who is going to emerge out of nowhere, who is vastly over-rated, who are the unmistakable studs? How many day 3 binkies will we identify who turn into day 1 and 2 picks?

Enjoy the climb.

 

[manxman2601]

To me, this is the really fun part of climbing the mountain: no one has the faintest clue how to really evaluate talent this far out, if at all.

Here's Dane Brugler's 2026 pre-season top 50, published last August, just before the 2025 CFB season:

NFL Draft 2026 rankings: Arch Manning, Caleb Downs in top 5 of Dane Brugler’s initial board

Quarterbacks and offensive tackles could dominate the early rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft, but a defensive tackle holds the No. 1 spot.

www.nytimes.com

Lots of day 3 guys on that list. No Arvell Reese (5), Mansoor Delane (6), Ty Simpson (13), Vega Ioane (14), Blake Miller (17), Monroe Freeling (19), Akheem Mesidor (22), Malachi Lawrence (23), KC Concepcion (24), Dillon Thieneman (25), Keylan Rutledge (26), Chris Johnson (27), Omar Cooper (30) or Jadarian Price (32).

That's 44% (14/32) 1st round picks that were not even in Brugler's top 50. Neither were De'Zhaun Stribling (33), Chase Bisontis (34), Kayden McDonald (36), Colton Hood (37), Treydan Stukes (38), Denzel Boston (39), Cashius Howell (41), Jacob Rodriguez (43), Derrick Moore (44), Josiah Trotter (46), Germie Bernard (47), Lee Hunter (49) or D'Angelo Ponds (50).

So just before the CFB season started - 4 months from now for the 2026 season - Brugler's top 50 correctly predicted only 23 out of the top 50 actual picks, and only 3 of the remaining 14 2nd round picks.

Here's Brugler's next top 50, from November 11, 3+ months into the CFB season:

2026 NFL Draft rankings: Which prospects earned a spot on latest top-50 board?

For all its faults, the 2026 quarterback class has generated some positive momentum — just not as much as Ohio State's Arvell Reese.

www.nytimes.com

No Blake Miller, Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor, Malachi Lawrence, Keylan Rutledge, Chris Johnson, Peter Woods or Omar Cooper. That's 25% of the eventual 1st round that weren't even in Brugler's top 50.

And the thing is, Brugler's good. Very good. He and Daniel Jeremiah are probably the 2 best. But they still are way off.

Obviously, you can't predict the emergence of an Arvell Reese or Jacob Rodriguez. You can't predict injuries. You can't predict who will go back to school. But there were also some terrible evaluations - LT Overton never should have been on anyone's top 50 much less 23 oveeall, Kaleb Tiernan never belonged on a top 40 list. That's like drafting Ron Brace at 40, or Jordan Richards at 64. Incomprehensible.

So looking forward to the 2026 CFB season 2027 draft, who is going to emerge out of nowhere, who is vastly over-rated, who are the unmistakable studs? How many day 3 binkies will we identify who turn into day 1 and 2 picks?

Enjoy the climb.

Great stuff and there's not much I can add except to say:

1. I can't believe I have to wait 4 months. I'm ready now!

2. This is why it's fun.

3.I can't wait until September. Last year was my first year watching CFB properly and I loved it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Phase I is to just unearth as many interesting people as possible. You have to do a lot of panning to find some gold.o

 

[long distance]

something to keep in mind regarding Day 3 draft capital and age of the middle class prospects going foreward

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

something to keep in mind regarding Day 3 draft capital and age of the middle class prospects going foreward

Great post.

The guys that delayed in 2026 draft have to join the draft eventually. There was a dip in 2026, there has to be a spike in 2027 or 2028? The guys are coming out eventually, it is only a delay.

 

[upstater1]

My early goals for 2027:

1. Complete the build out of the most athletic, versatile, and deepest OL in the NFL. Protect the Drake.

2. Add versatile and violent players on defense who complement and complete the nucleus already in place.

3. Add complementary offensive skill players that fit with the existing core and overall vision.

Players who I expect to be moving on from in 2027, or 2028 at the latest, either because of age, contract, or fit:

- OT Morgan Moses
- IOL Mike Onwenu
- TE Hunter Henry
- RB Rhamondre Stephenson
- WR Mack Hollins
- WR Pop Douglas
- EDGE Harold Landry
- LB Robert Spillane
- S Kevin Byard
- CB Carlton Davis

IDL Christian Barmore and WR Kayshon Boutte are also long term question marks right now.

The only name that I would not deem expendable at this point is Mike Onwenu.

I know the Patriots are moving toward another scheme.

But they have drafted Cole Strange, Chasen Hines, Atonio Mafi, Sidy Sow, Jake Andrews, Layden Robinson, Caeden Wallace, Jared Wilson and a bunch of FAs for the IOL, and only Wilson has a chance of working out for us. So many picks, so many signings, and no one can unseat Onwenu.

So why do we think we can find a replacement?

Do not mention Mike Onwenu's age, he is only 28 years old. 7 years younger than Moses.

Do not mention Onwenu's output, he has been remarkably durable, an absolute stalwart.

Do not mention Onwenu's contract, because at $18m a year, that is normal now in the NFL for a guard with Onwenu's production. If you want someone as good as Onwenu, you pay $18m. Going rate.

David Edwards is the same age as Onwenu and just signed a new contract that runs until 2029. He got half of the contract up front as a signing bonus. He will cost over $20m a year.

Is Edwards so much better than Onwenu?

I totally understand the idea of saving $20m a year by bringing in a much cheaper replacement in the draft, but is it worth risking Drake Maye's health if you're not assured of doing it?

The problem here is that we drafted 7 guys for the guard position and we struck out on each and every one. I am not saying we should give up on drafting guards because of our abysmal record, but you certainly should not jettison a stalwart at the position UNTIL you absolutely know you have his replacement, especially with often injured Vera-Tucker at the other guard position.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The only name that I would not deem expendable at this point is Mike Onwenu.

I know the Patriots are moving toward another scheme.

But they have drafted Cole Strange, Chasen Hines, Atonio Mafi, Sidy Sow, Jake Andrews, Layden Robinson, Caeden Wallace, Jared Wilson and a bunch of FAs for the IOL, and only Wilson has a chance of working out for us. So many picks, so many signings, and no one can unseat Onwenu.

So why do we think we can find a replacement?

Do not mention Mike Onwenu's age, he is only 28 years old. 7 years younger than Moses.

Do not mention Onwenu's output, he has been remarkably durable, an absolute stalwart.

Do not mention Onwenu's contract, because at $18m a year, that is normal now in the NFL for a guard with Onwenu's production. If you want someone as good as Onwenu, you pay $18m. Going rate.

David Edwards is the same age as Onwenu and just signed a new contract that runs until 2029. He got half of the contract up front as a signing bonus. He will cost over $20m a year.

Is Edwards so much better than Onwenu?

I totally understand the idea of saving $20m a year by bringing in a much cheaper replacement in the draft, but is it worth risking Drake Maye's health if you're not assured of doing it?

The problem here is that we drafted 7 guys for the guard position and we struck out on each and every one. I am not saying we should give up on drafting guards because of our abysmal record, but you certainly should not jettison a stalwart at the position UNTIL you absolutely know you have his replacement, especially with often injured Vera-Tucker at the other guard position.

I agree with all of that.

I am not sure Onwenu is a great fit for the more athletic, mobile offense the coaching staff would like to run. Being a past stalwart does not mean Onwenu fits a new scheme going forward.

Also veterans are regularly let go without a replacement being lined up. We let go of Diggs with no replacement in-house. Happens all the time across the NFL.

 

[upstater1]

I agree with all of that.

I am not sure Onwenu is a great fit for the more athletic, mobile offense the coaching staff would like to run. Being a past stalwart does not mean Onwenu fits a new scheme going forward.

Also veterans are regularly let go without a replacement being lined up. We let go of Diggs with no replacement in-house. Happens all the time across the NFL.

As to releasing vets without replacement, I don't think you can find a replacement for less money. But you can draft a yung player. You are risking Maye's health however if you do that. Seems kind of pointless.

I would also point out that we've been suffering at LG ever since we let Joe Thuney go. That happened in 2020. 7 draft picks later, and we finally signed and often injured LG to replace... Thuney. A long 6 years.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

As to releasing vets without replacement, I don't think you can find a replacement for less money. But you can draft a yung player. You are risking Maye's health however if you do that. Seems kind of pointless.

Whenever we draft an OT or OG and start them, we are adding risk but saving $$s. We did exactly that when we started Wilson and Campbell. I suspect the coaching staff would do it again. Definitely not pointless if the staff did it last year.

I would also point out that we've been suffering at LG ever since we let Joe Thuney go. That happened in 2020. 7 draft picks later, and we finally signed and often injured LG to replace... Thuney. A long 6 years.

I agree. And we failed to trade for Thuney last year like the Bears did.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Great post.

The guys that delayed in 2026 draft have to join the draft eventually. There was a dip in 2026, there has to be a spike in 2027 or 2028? The guys are coming out eventually, it is only a delay.

I wouldn’t call it a spike, but just a return to normalcy, for the reasons you mentioned. Similar to why 2010 and 2021 NFL drafts were so good and deep while 2012 and 2013 were bad on the whole — they knew the rookie cap was coming, the 2010 class timed it properly while the 2011 class banked on a CBA exemption for year 1 that never happened. Suddenly 2012 and 2013 were very weak draft classes because the best talent left for 2010 and 2011. Things got back to normal by 2014.

 

[upstater1]

Whenever we draft an OT or OG and start them, we are adding risk but saving $$s. We did exactly that when we started Wilson and Campbell. I suspect the coaching staff would do it again. Definitely not pointless if the staff did it last year.

I agree. And we failed to trade for Thuney last year like the Bears did.

The Thuney train is long past. He's on his last legs.

But we drafted Campbell at the #4 pick in the draft. It was a colossal waste of resources, and that's not a shot at Campbell. I could be a huge Campbell fan and I would say the same thing. It speaks to the very dysfunction I am talking about. You spent the 4th pick in the draft on a LT who would otherwise be the equivalent of the 15th-20th pick in the first round, and you left behind supremely talented players. Of course you start him.

As for Wilson, I sincerely hope he works out at center. He would be the first out of 8 draft picks in the last 4 years who worked out at IOL. But he didn't work out at guard, we know that at least.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

As to releasing vets without replacement, I don't think you can find a replacement for less money. But you can draft a yung player. You are risking Maye's health however if you do that. Seems kind of pointless.

I would also point out that we've been suffering at LG ever since we let Joe Thuney go. That happened in 2020. 7 draft picks later, and we finally signed and often injured LG to replace... Thuney. A long 6 years.

The only counterpoint is we did get the guy in Strange but he was hurt too much of the time. Healthy he was good, and was the only OG pick above 4th round. The others were low rounders that aren't even in the league now. Next year we should shoot for a guard on day 2. As you say, Onwenu is safe in 2026 but I think it will be a financial goal to draft a replacement next year for 2027 if possible. I like his size and durability though.

 

[upstater1]

The only counterpoint is we did get the guy in Strange but he was hurt too much of the time. Healthy he was good, and was the only OG pick above 4th round. The others were low rounders that aren't even in the league now. Next year we should shoot for a guard on day 2. As you say, Onwenu is safe in 2026 but I think it will be a financial goal to draft a replacement next year for 2027 if possible. I like his size and durability though.

Yes, good point about where we draft them. Only exception is Caeden Wallace who was the 68th pick in the draft