We're on to Washington

[mayoclinic]

I think a lot if these are a question of opportunity and hedging bets.

- Hunter Henry, Kevin Byard and possibly Mike Onwenu could easily be extended another year. OTOH, if the opportunity arises to add talent at the position all could be gone.

- Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane and Rhamondre Stevenson could be kept on the longer side or moved on from earlier, as well.

Self-evaluation will be key.

 

[Ring 6]

I think they believe that Byard has 2 years left in him. Davis is a bump and hold guy due to his lack of speed. Not sure how long he will last.

Davis was good last year.
Byard only signed for 1 year.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Davis was good last year.
Byard only signed for 1 year.

Yup that is why I said "I think they believe that Byard has two years left" (since Byard only signed for 1 year), and "not sure how long he (Davis) will last" (since Davis was good last year). I thought the inference was obvious.

You are highlighting my inference by agreeing with my post? Or you are disagreeing because you could not understand the inference?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I think a lot if these are a question of opportunity and hedging bets.

- Hunter Henry, Kevin Byard and possibly Mike Onwenu could easily be extended another year. OTOH, if the opportunity arises to add talent at the position all could be gone.

- Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane and Rhamondre Stevenson could be kept on the longer side or moved on from earlier, as well.

Self-evaluation will be key.

I am with you- and in the minority- that Henry could easily be extended a year if he plays well. He is a steady, productive, professional veteran. He is still Leone Drake Maye leans on, on and off the field.

Certain, if Raridon looks clearly ready to take the job, that won’t happen. But I think most Patsfans underestimate how difficult it is to replace Henry’s production with a guy taken a pick 90 or later. George Kittle is one of one.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

George Kittle is one of one.

I agree. People like to make the most ridiculous comparisons.

 

[dliverey44]

I am with you- and in the minority- that Henry could easily be extended a year if he plays well. He is a steady, productive, professional veteran. He is still Leone Drake Maye leans on, on and off the field.

Certain, if Raridon looks clearly ready to take the job, that won’t happen. But I think most Patsfans underestimate how difficult it is to replace Henry’s production with a guy taken a pick 90 or later. George Kittle is one of one.

Funny enough, Raridon says he tries to model his game after Kittle.

 

[Ring 6]

Yup that is why I said "I think they believe that Byard has two years left" (since Byard only signed for 1 year), and "not sure how long he (Davis) will last" (since Davis was good last year). I thought the inference was obvious.

You are highlighting my inference by agreeing with my post? Or you are disagreeing because you could not understand the inference?

You called David a bump and hold guy and you aren’t sure how long he will last. I responded that he was good last year. I don’t infer “he’s a bump and hold guy”’to concur with good.

I think if they believed Byard has 2 years left they would have signed him for 2. What evidence do you have to supporting thinking they believe he has 2 years?

So no I understood and disagreed.

 

[mayoclinic]

To me, this is the really fun part of climbing the mountain: no one has the faintest clue how to really evaluate talent this far out, if at all.

Here's Dane Brugler's 2026 pre-season top 50, published last August, just before the 2025 CFB season:

NFL Draft 2026 rankings: Arch Manning, Caleb Downs in top 5 of Dane Brugler’s initial board

Quarterbacks and offensive tackles could dominate the early rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft, but a defensive tackle holds the No. 1 spot.

www.nytimes.com

Lots of day 3 guys on that list. No Arvell Reese (5), Mansoor Delane (6), Ty Simpson (13), Vega Ioane (14), Blake Miller (17), Monroe Freeling (19), Akheem Mesidor (22), Malachi Lawrence (23), KC Concepcion (24), Dillon Thieneman (25), Keylan Rutledge (26), Chris Johnson (27), Omar Cooper (30) or Jadarian Price (32).

That's 44% (14/32) 1st round picks that were not even in Brugler's top 50. Neither were De'Zhaun Stribling (33), Chase Bisontis (34), Kayden McDonald (36), Colton Hood (37), Treydan Stukes (38), Denzel Boston (39), Cashius Howell (41), Jacob Rodriguez (43), Derrick Moore (44), Josiah Trotter (46), Germie Bernard (47), Lee Hunter (49) or D'Angelo Ponds (50).

So just before the CFB season started - 4 months from now for the 2026 season - Brugler's top 50 correctly predicted only 23 out of the top 50 actual picks, and only 3 of the remaining 14 2nd round picks.

Here's Brugler's next top 50, from November 11, 3+ months into the CFB season:

2026 NFL Draft rankings: Which prospects earned a spot on latest top-50 board?

For all its faults, the 2026 quarterback class has generated some positive momentum — just not as much as Ohio State's Arvell Reese.

www.nytimes.com

No Blake Miller, Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor, Malachi Lawrence, Keylan Rutledge, Chris Johnson, Peter Woods or Omar Cooper. That's 25% of the eventual 1st round that weren't even in Brugler's top 50.

And the thing is, Brugler's good. Very good. He and Daniel Jeremiah are probably the 2 best. But they still are way off.

Obviously, you can't predict the emergence of an Arvell Reese or Jacob Rodriguez. You can't predict injuries. You can't predict who will go back to school. But there were also some terrible evaluations - LT Overton never should have been on anyone's top 50 much less 23 oveeall, Kaleb Tiernan never belonged on a top 40 list. That's like drafting Ron Brace at 40, or Jordan Richards at 64. Incomprehensible.

So looking forward to the 2026 CFB season 2027 draft, who is going to emerge out of nowhere, who is vastly over-rated, who are the unmistakable studs? How many day 3 binkies will we identify who turn into day 1 and 2 picks?

Enjoy the climb.

 

[manxman2601]

To me, this is the really fun part of climbing the mountain: no one has the faintest clue how to really evaluate talent this far out, if at all.

Here's Dane Brugler's 2026 pre-season top 50, published last August, just before the 2025 CFB season:

NFL Draft 2026 rankings: Arch Manning, Caleb Downs in top 5 of Dane Brugler’s initial board

Quarterbacks and offensive tackles could dominate the early rounds of the 2026 NFL Draft, but a defensive tackle holds the No. 1 spot.

www.nytimes.com

Lots of day 3 guys on that list. No Arvell Reese (5), Mansoor Delane (6), Ty Simpson (13), Vega Ioane (14), Blake Miller (17), Monroe Freeling (19), Akheem Mesidor (22), Malachi Lawrence (23), KC Concepcion (24), Dillon Thieneman (25), Keylan Rutledge (26), Chris Johnson (27), Omar Cooper (30) or Jadarian Price (32).

That's 44% (14/32) 1st round picks that were not even in Brugler's top 50. Neither were De'Zhaun Stribling (33), Chase Bisontis (34), Kayden McDonald (36), Colton Hood (37), Treydan Stukes (38), Denzel Boston (39), Cashius Howell (41), Jacob Rodriguez (43), Derrick Moore (44), Josiah Trotter (46), Germie Bernard (47), Lee Hunter (49) or D'Angelo Ponds (50).

So just before the CFB season started - 4 months from now for the 2026 season - Brugler's top 50 correctly predicted only 23 out of the top 50 actual picks, and only 3 of the remaining 14 2nd round picks.

Here's Brugler's next top 50, from November 11, 3+ months into the CFB season:

2026 NFL Draft rankings: Which prospects earned a spot on latest top-50 board?

For all its faults, the 2026 quarterback class has generated some positive momentum — just not as much as Ohio State's Arvell Reese.

www.nytimes.com

No Blake Miller, Monroe Freeling, Max Iheanachor, Malachi Lawrence, Keylan Rutledge, Chris Johnson, Peter Woods or Omar Cooper. That's 25% of the eventual 1st round that weren't even in Brugler's top 50.

And the thing is, Brugler's good. Very good. He and Daniel Jeremiah are probably the 2 best. But they still are way off.

Obviously, you can't predict the emergence of an Arvell Reese or Jacob Rodriguez. You can't predict injuries. You can't predict who will go back to school. But there were also some terrible evaluations - LT Overton never should have been on anyone's top 50 much less 23 oveeall, Kaleb Tiernan never belonged on a top 40 list. That's like drafting Ron Brace at 40, or Jordan Richards at 64. Incomprehensible.

So looking forward to the 2026 CFB season 2027 draft, who is going to emerge out of nowhere, who is vastly over-rated, who are the unmistakable studs? How many day 3 binkies will we identify who turn into day 1 and 2 picks?

Enjoy the climb.

Great stuff and there's not much I can add except to say:

1. I can't believe I have to wait 4 months. I'm ready now!

2. This is why it's fun.

3.I can't wait until September. Last year was my first year watching CFB properly and I loved it.

 

[mayoclinic]

Phase I is to just unearth as many interesting people as possible. You have to do a lot of panning to find some gold.o

 

[long distance]

something to keep in mind regarding Day 3 draft capital and age of the middle class prospects going foreward