Pretty simple. We need to finish ahead of the Jets, Colts, OR Ravens to make the playoffs.
The problem is we won't be able to break a tie with any of them.
If the Jets beat the Bills and Dolphins at home they will have us on division record. If they win one of those games, we will be tied there and in conference (assuming we win at Seattle and Oakland and they beat San Fran and Seattle).
The Colts beat us.
And the Ravens will have us on conference record since we will probably go 4-0 in the NFC and they have already lost to the Giants.
So I think 10-6 keeps us out. We need to run the table.