Welker was never coming to the patriots

[mgteich]

Player agent Dunn's list of players, Courtesy of Reiss.

Here is the list:

DE Jake Bequette
CB Alfonzo Dennard
TE Aaron Hernandez
P Zoltan Mesko
OT Nate Solder
RB Shane Vereen

When will this factually flawed nugget cease to be thrown about. Both Welker and his agent are sophisticated enough to understand that about 3 of the 6MM in incentives in the Pats deal were easily attainable. The rest needed to attained by having a very good year. Throwing out 2 and 10 chestnut in the hopes that it looks like the Denver deal was better is just disingenuous.
==============================================
Agreed, only I would add that while most felt that the $9.3MM Welker got was what he deserved, the Pats knew that they were well overpaying him that year....and did it gladly hoping Wes and his agent would appreciate the gesture.

I'm assuming the 2/20 is a typo and should be 2/10. I think you sensationalize the timeline a bit. I'm sure the Pats repeated their offer, on Tuesday night, and let Wes and agents know that they were going to have to move fast either with him or DA, so unfortunately Wes was put into a position to make an immediate decision.
======
This is just crap. The TENN offer was as incentivized as the Pats was, and essentially the same. And the thought that "bad teams" would over pay for a 32 year old slot receiver is just ludicrous. The 3 offers were all Wes had gotten to that point. Denver was by far the best fit other than NE. And why do you ignore that the "$12MM guaranteed" is NOT GUARANTEED. That he is likely to be be either gone next year, or fighting the Bronco's to keep as much of that "guaranteed money" as he can.
========
NOT the Patriots' price, but EVERYONE's price. The reality was the easily makeable money was essentially the same in all 3 contracts. In fact only in the Denver Contract was there an out for the team that made it essentially a one year deal, or if you are being generous, a series of 2 one year deals

The fact is that there is a lot better argument that can be made for the fact the Denver contract was by far the worst that Welker could have signed, than can be made in reverse.

BTW- you make a very interesting point about the relationship between Dunn and the Pats, MG. This is going to bear watching, because, I don't recall the exact names,but at one time I saw a list of his Patriots clients, and I remember thinking that it was a long list and had a lot of important players on it.

 

[borg]

When will this factually flawed nugget cease to be thrown about. Both Welker and his agent are sophisticated enough to understand that about 3 of the 6MM in incentives in the Pats deal were easily attainable. The rest needed to attained by having a very good year. Throwing out 2 and 10 chestnut in the hopes that it looks like the Denver deal was better is just disingenuous.
==============================================
Agreed, only I would add that while most felt that the $9.3MM Welker got was what he deserved, the Pats knew that they were well overpaying him that year....and did it gladly hoping Wes and his agent would appreciate the gesture.

I'm assuming the 2/20 is a typo and should be 2/10. I think you sensationalize the timeline a bit. I'm sure the Pats repeated their offer, on Tuesday night, and let Wes and agents know that they were going to have to move fast either with him or DA, so unfortunately Wes was put into a position to make an immediate decision.
======
This is just crap. The TENN offer was as incentivized as the Pats was, and essentially the same. And the thought that "bad teams" would over pay for a 32 year old slot receiver is just ludicrous. The 3 offers were all Wes had gotten to that point. Denver was by far the best fit other than NE. And why do you ignore that the "$12MM guaranteed" is NOT GUARANTEED. That he is likely to be be either gone next year, or fighting the Bronco's to keep as much of that "guaranteed money" as he can.
========
NOT the Patriots' price, but EVERYONE's price. The reality was the easily makeable money was essentially the same in all 3 contracts. In fact only in the Denver Contract was there an out for the team that made it essentially a one year deal, or if you are being generous, a series of 2 one year deals

The fact is that there is a lot better argument that can be made for the fact the Denver contract was by far the worst that Welker could have signed, than can be made in reverse.

BTW- you make a very interesting point about the relationship between Dunn and the Pats, MG. This is going to bear watching, because, I don't recall the exact names,but at one time I saw a list of his Patriots clients, and I remember thinking that it was a long list and had a lot of important players on it.

I have to ask where these numbers are coming from....the $3 mill of easily reached incentives from the Pats?? Or the Tennessee offer (which I read was never offered) was heavily incentivized?? Internet legends??

 

[PATSNUTme]

There's nothing to do but move on. What's done is done.

But there is the dead horse to beat and it's still lying there.

 

[mgteich]

We say that the patriots offer was a market one and it was made several times to Welker. If that's true, then Welker simply didn't want to play for the patriots. His agent had several days to find out what the alternatives were. You say that the team felt that they had overpaid Welker in the past and wouldn't do that again. That attitude says volumes about the situation. Welker has certainly earned his compensation over the past five years.

Kraft's comments about Welker's agent were simply NOT good business. Well, we'll have a year before we want to extend Solder.

I agree that I don't know much about the seriousness of TENN's offer.

We lost one of the best slot receivers in history at a time when he was producing at the top of his game. It is time to move on and create a defense that does not depend on having an all-pro in the slot.

When will this factually flawed nugget cease to be thrown about. Both Welker and his agent are sophisticated enough to understand that about 3 of the 6MM in incentives in the Pats deal were easily attainable. The rest needed to attained by having a very good year. Throwing out 2 and 10 chestnut in the hopes that it looks like the Denver deal was better is just disingenuous.
==============================================
Agreed, only I would add that while most felt that the $9.3MM Welker got was what he deserved, the Pats knew that they were well overpaying him that year....and did it gladly hoping Wes and his agent would appreciate the gesture.

I'm assuming the 2/20 is a typo and should be 2/10. I think you sensationalize the timeline a bit. I'm sure the Pats repeated their offer, on Tuesday night, and let Wes and agents know that they were going to have to move fast either with him or DA, so unfortunately Wes was put into a position to make an immediate decision.
======
This is just crap. The TENN offer was as incentivized as the Pats was, and essentially the same. And the thought that "bad teams" would over pay for a 32 year old slot receiver is just ludicrous. The 3 offers were all Wes had gotten to that point. Denver was by far the best fit other than NE. And why do you ignore that the "$12MM guaranteed" is NOT GUARANTEED. That he is likely to be be either gone next year, or fighting the Bronco's to keep as much of that "guaranteed money" as he can.
========
NOT the Patriots' price, but EVERYONE's price. The reality was the easily makeable money was essentially the same in all 3 contracts. In fact only in the Denver Contract was there an out for the team that made it essentially a one year deal, or if you are being generous, a series of 2 one year deals

The fact is that there is a lot better argument that can be made for the fact the Denver contract was by far the worst that Welker could have signed, than can be made in reverse.

BTW- you make a very interesting point about the relationship between Dunn and the Pats, MG. This is going to bear watching, because, I don't recall the exact names,but at one time I saw a list of his Patriots clients, and I remember thinking that it was a long list and had a lot of important players on it.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Do we really need another one of these threads?

 

[Deus Irae]

We say that the patriots offer was a market one and it was made several times to Welker. If that's true, then Welker simply didn't want to play for the patriots. His agent had several days to find out what the alternatives were. You say that the team felt that they had overpaid Welker in the past and wouldn't do that again. That attitude says volumes about the situation. Welker has certainly earned his compensation over the past five years.

Kraft's comments about Welker's agent were simply NOT good business. Well, we'll have a year before we want to extend Solder.

I agree that I don't know much about the seriousness of TENN's offer.

We lost one of the best slot receivers in history at a time when he was producing at the top of his game. It is time to move on and create a defense that does not depend on having an all-pro in the slot.

Why isn't it time to tear the front office a new one, repeatedly, until they get the hint from their fans and stop making these kinds of really stupid decisions with the top-level players? Why is it that people here simply decide to choke down yet another crap sandwich instead of calling out the team for either incompetence or letting personal feelings interfere with business on this?

It's great that the team doesn't make moronic moves like this as much as most teams. It's still inexcusable that this was allowed to occur.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Why isn't it time to tear the front office a new one, repeatedly, until they get the hint from their fans and stop making these kinds of really stupid decisions with the top-level players? Why is it that people here simply decide to choke down yet another crap sandwich instead of calling out the team for either incompetence or letting personal feelings interfere with business on this?

It's great that the team doesn't make moronic moves like this as much as most teams. It's still inexcusable that this was allowed to occur.

It is presumptuous to believe that the fans are a monolith/all feel the same way. And beyond that, this is not the point at which the Patriots can be condemned for the move. How can they be when the effect of the move is a current net zero (except saving available cap)? Questions to be answered: A) The Patriots had X amount of passing offense in 2012. What will their 2013 total be? B) The Patriots had X amount of wins and X amount of playoff success. What will their 2013 X be? C) WW had X production in 2012. What will his production be in 2013? Will it mirror 2012 sufficiently to infer he would have delivered it for the Patriots?
To be outraged at the Patriots now is either due to a fan's like of WW, to dislike the way the Patriots FO does business or to believe that the Patriots cannot be as successful with WW as without him.
To be mad at the effect of the WW move to Denver is to disregard that one cannot possibly know the effect and to disregard that the move may (or may not) be a net positive to the Patriots' success. IF the Patriots passing game struggles and IF that results in less success, believe me, there will be NO lack of 'outside Frankenstein's Castle' like mob (logical and illogical) ready to verbally skewer those responsible for letting WW go. Stay tuned......

As far as the OP, much of that is speculation so it is hard to make a comment. The best reading of the situation I can glean is the Patriots offered X, WW wanted Y, both decided to part ways. What I will point out, though, is one very misleading item in the OP. Denver's 12 million "guarantee" is in effect 8 million guaranteed and a "we'll decide if you will be paid 4 million. If we do it is guaranteed". That is a a long way from the intimation of "12 million guaranteed" implies. If one is going to write 'here is what happened' yet tailor the words, they are not writing a 'here is what happened' at all. The are writing a 'here is why the Patriots are the bad guys here'. Totally their choice to do but don't disguise it as what they tried to disguise it as.

 

[Deus Irae]

It is presumptuous to believe that the fans are a monolith/all feel the same way.

Nobody claimed a 100% agreement, so I'm not sure where you're planting this theory.

And beyond that, this is not the point at which the Patriots can be condemned for the move. How can they be when the effect of the move is a current net zero (except saving available cap)?

This is clearly not true or, rather, it's clearly an assertion of a (probably) minority opinion as if it were a fact. Since the post goes off the rails on something as obvious and significant as this, there's really no sense in delving into the rest.

 

[patfanken]

I have to ask where these numbers are coming from....the $3 mill of easily reached incentives from the Pats?? Or the Tennessee offer (which I read was never offered) was heavily incentivized?? Internet legends??

From what I've read in several articles the Pats offered 6MM in incentives over the 2 year period along with the $5MM/ each year in guaranteed money. Mike Reiss said that 2-3MM was in very easy incentives, like games played, fairly low production requirements.

The other $3MM were harder to get, and would have required production that matched his good years, like over 110 catches, over 1300yd, All pro selection, etc. Incentives that if the Pats had gone ahead and with their plan to spread the ball around more and target Wes less, would have been hard for him to reach.

The point is that if Wes "only" had a seasons of 85 catches, 850 yds and played in 13 games he could easily have reached that $2MM number

As far as the TENN offer, I really never saw much beyond the one article that taked about a 2yr/17MM deal. I never saw anything about what was guaranteed. So any comments about that deal by myself or anyone else was purely speculating

But the BOTTOM LINE here is that the Denver offer of $12MM "guaranteed" is nothing but a scam, that's really a one year deal for $6MM....and hope for the best. They aren't even comparable. Dever got a steal, and next year when they have to pay BOTH Thomas and Decker, Welker is going to be the odd man out. And next year when he's now 33 and perhaps not quite as productive, or not quite as healthy, he'll be out looking for work and HOPING for a $3MM contract

 

[Shockt327]

Why isn't it time to tear the front office a new one, repeatedly, until they get the hint from their fans and stop making these kinds of really stupid decisions with the top-level players? Why is it that people here simply decide to choke down yet another crap sandwich instead of calling out the team for either incompetence or letting personal feelings interfere with business on this?

It's great that the team doesn't make moronic moves like this as much as most teams. It's still inexcusable that this was allowed to occur.

Nonsense.

Welker got a 2/$10 offer. An offer that he took as an insult. He wanted $8/per.

Guess what? That offer from NE ended up being pretty spot-on for the market. Welker had all of the tampering period *and* the 1st day of FA to figure this out. He didn't. At least not until it was too late...

If Welker couldn't figure out his value within that time period (and all offseason, too); what can NE do? Are the Patriots supposed to sit around, with their thumb up their ass, waiting for Welker to realize this (potentially losing Amendola while waiting)? No. They made Amendola an offer after day 1; after Welker still didn't realize his value. NE moved on. And by the time Welker realized his true value...the door was closed. That's far more on Welker than NE.

 

[patman52]

I have to ask where these numbers are coming from....the $3 mill of easily reached incentives from the Pats?? Or the Tennessee offer (which I read was never offered) was heavily incentivized?? Internet legends??

Why is it bad business to show players that the pats negotiate tuff. This isn't baseball with Scott Boras being a power broker. If anything it makes dunn look bad, Welker is the one who left a team where his legacy was assured past his playing days . What if Welker is cut next year and does not get the 2nd part of the deal, how does that make Dunn look to Solder.

 

[Deus Irae]

Nonsense.

Welker got a 2/$10 offer. An offer that he took as an insult. He wanted $8/per.

Guess what? That offer from NE ended up being pretty spot-on for the market. Welker had all of the tampering period *and* the 1st day of FA to figure this out. He didn't. At least not until it was too late...

If Welker couldn't figure out his value within that time period (and all offseason, too); what can NE do? Are the Patriots supposed to sit around, with their thumb up their ass, waiting for Welker to realize this (potentially losing Amendola while waiting)? No. They made Amendola an offer after day 1; after Welker still didn't realize his value. NE moved on. And by the time Welker realized his true value...the door was closed. That's far more on Welker than NE.

Yes, if you ignore everything that actually happened that isn't 100% pro-Patriots, you can come up with a Pro-Patriots slant. Congratulations!

 

[ausbacker]

Yes, if you ignore everything that actually happened that isn't 100% pro-Patriots, you can come up with a Pro-Patriots slant. Congratulations!

It seems fairly obvious that Welker and his agent misjudged the top end of the market for Welker Deus. That said, there was a willing buyer at a rate close to his asking price. Welker chose to ignore that and go to a competing contender at a price similar to that which the Patriots tabled.

We all know this is part Welker, part agent and part Patriots fault, but it's not worth losing sleep over. Danny Amendola will slip into the role and perform admirably. I'm more concerned with the other needs that the Patriots are working toward filling in the off season.

Despite being a favorite of mine, Welker is now a former Patriots player to me. Outside of fantasy and the occasional Patriots match, now, he's just another player in the NFL.

 

[patfanken]

We say that the patriots offer was a market one and it was made several times to Welker. If that's true, then Welker simply didn't want to play for the patriots. His agent had several days to find out what the alternatives were.

MG, THAT is the million dollar question, literally. The agent had plenty of time to find out what the approximate market was. You'd have to believe that he was in contract with at least a dozen teams, gauging first interest and then what the team's though he was worth. Yet in the end all we know for certain was 2 teams (and perhaps a third) made concrete offers, that when you got by the smoke and mirrors were essentially the same.

In other words, by the end of "legal tampering period" the agent HAD to know that Welker's market, was essentially some version of 2 years and 12MM. He HAD to know that the Pats offer was "in the ball park, while his "final demands" to the team were not. There should have been plenty of time on Tuesday for the Pats and Dunn to put an acceptable deal together. Certainly a better one than what he signed with Denver, which isn't really a 2 year deal at all.

Maybe the answer really is that it was Welker who didn't want to come back for some reason. Maybe he was SO sure he'd get his number, that when he found out that the Pats had pegged the market correctly, he didn't want seem like he was coming back hat in hand. OR maybe it was his agent who scammed him. Wes certainly didn't look thrilled at his presser in Denver. I don't know anymore.

All I do know is that Kraft was truly upset and pissed. He had NO reason to lie about what happened. Its not like he hasn't had to go through tough departures of popular players before, yet he never felt the need to speak up and defend the process before. Stuff happened here, and all things being equal, I have a lot more reason to believe Kraft than Dunn.

You say that the team felt that they had overpaid Welker in the past and wouldn't do that again. That attitude says volumes about the situation. Welker has certainly earned his compensation over the past five years.

Not "in the past". Don't misquote me. I said paid him over the market price "LAST year", not any other year but that one. And I'm sure they did it gladly for all the years he did over produced his contract. But you can't expect a team to do it every year.

Kraft's comments about Welker's agent were simply NOT good business. Well, we'll have a year before we want to extend Solder.

Well since he's Dunn client as well, it will certainly be interesting to see how that negotiation goes. By reputation, both Kraft and Dunn are both good businessmen, and good businessmen know that its alright to get pissed from time to time, but carrying a grudge is NEVER good business. So I wouldn't be surprised to see it go very smoothly.....or not

I agree that I don't know much about the seriousness of TENN's offer.

Now there are 2 of us that don't know.

We lost one of the best slot receivers in history at a time when he was producing at the top of his game. It is time to move on and create a defense that does not depend on having an all-pro in the slot.

Arguably the BEST slot receiver of all time, but I'd disagree that he was at the top of his game last year. There have been some slight cracks beginning to show. Over the last very productive year his YAC per catch has been going down slightly, and his drops have been going up over the last 2 years. Again nothing big or significant, but just tell tale signs

I agree, its time to move on and build that defense that becomes more than just a burden on the offense, but I would opine that IF Amendola proves more durable than he has been the last 2 seasons, there is nothing in his past production when on the field, that would lead us to believe that we are going to lose much, if at all, from our slot receiver position.

 

[Brady6]

Why isn't it time to tear the front office a new one, repeatedly, until they get the hint from their fans and stop making these kinds of really stupid decisions with the top-level players? Why is it that people here simply decide to choke down yet another crap sandwich instead of calling out the team for either incompetence or letting personal feelings interfere with business on this?

It's great that the team doesn't make moronic moves like this as much as most teams. It's still inexcusable that this was allowed to occur.

I don't understand why we would tear the FO a new one for not overvaluing a 32 year old slot WR?

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/658/isaac-bruce
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/939/marvin-harrison
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/12/jerry-rice
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/751/joey-galloway
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/54/andre-rison
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2584/chad-johnson
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/924/keyshawn-johnson
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/935/eric-moulds
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/1263/derrick-mason
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/25/irving-fryar
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/1494/hines-ward
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/109/herman-moore

What I cannot understand is what makes you believe Welker isn't going to decline like all these other WR did?

 

[Deus Irae]

It seems fairly obvious that Welker and his agent misjudged the top end of the market for Welker Deus.

Reportedly, the Titans were willing to pay $7.5 million per, which is without negotiations. If the agent made a misjudgment, it would be more likely that he misjudged how much his client would be willing to leave on the table to

A.) play for a legitimate contender other than NE

and/or

B.) get a chance to stick it to the Patriots

We all know this is part Welker, part agent and part Patriots fault, but it's not worth losing sleep over. Danny Amendola will slip into the role and perform admirably.

I'm not sure where you're getting this from, because the opposite has historically been true, both with this team and with Amendola.

I'm more concerned with the other needs that the Patriots are working toward filling in the off season.

I'm concerned that the Patriots organization is going to get even more of a reputation for being asses to deal with than it already has, and that such a reputation will come back to haunt them once Brady is gone. The "lipstick on a pig" approach that they've taken so far this offseason just makes it worse, because it's not really fooling many people beyond the most gullible of Patriots fans.

Despite being a favorite of mine, Welker is now a former Patriots player to me. Outside of fantasy and the occasional Patriots match, now, he's just another player in the NFL.

We approach our fandom differently.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Nobody claimed a 100% agreement, so I'm not sure where you're planting this theory.



This is clearly not true or, rather, it's clearly an assertion of a (probably) minority opinion as if it were a fact. Since the post goes off the rails on something as obvious and significant as this, there's really no sense in delving into the rest.

"until they get the hint from their fans and stop making these kinds of really stupid decisions". I am a fan. I do not agree (for the reasons I stated, that it is too soon to be angry). That isn't "theory" planting -- an odd comment -- that is a response to what you wrote. When you say "fans should be", it is reasonable to conclude you are speaking of all fans (whether your intention or not).

To your other paragraph, not sure why you needed to write down your need to not delve but ok. Regardless, the 'current net zero' effect of losing WW is actually hard, indisputable fact. No receptions have been gained or lost for the 2013 games. No wins have been lost, no wins have been gained for the 2013 games. Indisputable. Everyone is free to make their guess on this based on what WW has done for us, and it may be a very educated guess. Yet no one can be certain to anywhere near the point of being anything more than stating an opinion.
Again, IF the Patriots falter in the passing department and IF the Patriots success is affected by this, it will then be logical to conclude WW not being around is a detriment to success. Until then, given the Patriot's track record of success, it is perfectly reasonable to take a non-angry, wait & see approach to what the 2013 team will produce in on field success/what the results will be.

 

[ausbacker]

Reportedly, the Titans were willing to pay $7.5 million per, which is without negotiations. If the agent made a misjudgment, it would be more likely that he misjudged how much his client would be willing to leave on the table to

A.) play for a legitimate contender other than NE

and/or

B.) get a chance to stick it to the Patriots

That's a reasonable point. If Welker really wanted the money he wouldn't be with Denver. It seems obvious what his intention became.

I'm not sure where you're getting this from, because the opposite has historically been true, both with this team and with Amendola.

Welker was a nobody before he came to the Patriots. Amendola has proven he can play the role of slot receiver. I have faith that Amendola will be an adequate replacement for the role Welker performed. I'm also giving Amendola the chance to write his own history with the Patriots rather than being judged against Wes Welker and Danny Amendola: Rams.

I'm concerned that the Patriots organization is going to get even more of a reputation for being asses to deal with than it already has, and that such a reputation will come back to haunt them once Brady is gone. The "lipstick on a pig" approach that they've taken so far this offseason just makes it worse, because it's not really fooling many people beyond the most gullible of Patriots fans.

I'm not concerned. The Patriots assign their values and move on. There is a reason the Patriots have been able to remain competitive. Sure Tom Brady helps but the team has one of the best FO's going around.

We approach our fandom differently.

I'm sure we approach many things in life differently.

 

[Shockt327]

Nonsense.

Welker got a 2/$10 offer. An offer that he took as an insult. He wanted $8/per.

Guess what? That offer from NE ended up being pretty spot-on for the market. Welker had all of the tampering period *and* the 1st day of FA to figure this out. He didn't. At least not until it was too late...

If Welker couldn't figure out his value within that time period (and all offseason, too); what can NE do? Are the Patriots supposed to sit around, with their thumb up their ass, waiting for Welker to realize this (potentially losing Amendola while waiting)? No. They made Amendola an offer after day 1; after Welker still didn't realize his value. NE moved on. And by the time Welker realized his true value...the door was closed. That's far more on Welker than NE.

Yes, if you ignore everything that actually happened that isn't 100% pro-Patriots, you can come up with a Pro-Patriots slant. Congratulations!

Ignore what exactly? Funny how you conveniently leave this out.

For someone placing the blame on NE; you really cannot deny that their offer to Welker was pretty spot-on. In many ways even better than what he settled for w/ Den. The Patriots really didn't low ball him.

 

[mgteich]

So the patriot FO can pat themselves on the back because their best receiver accepted about the same contract somewhere else?

The patriots didn't want to pay a couple of million more to secure Welker. He just wasn't worth it. Well, we'll see. We'll likely carry at least $2M in cap money into next year, so it won't be the cap that is the issue.

Ignore what exactly? Funny how you conveniently leave this out.

For someone placing the blame on NE; you really cannot deny that their offer to Welker was pretty spot-on. In many ways even better than what he settled for w/ Den. The Patriots really didn't low ball him.