The agent told EVERYONE that the market for Welker was $8M a year. Welker was offered $7.5M from TENN. Maybe he could have negotiated for $500K more. Perhaps another, weaker, team might have signed him for the same (the agent was under orders to only consider contenders).
So, I suppose everyone would have been fine if Welker signed with TENN for 50% or more above the patriot offer.
How exactly did the agent mis-read the market?
Welker DECIDED/WAS CONVINCED to take a below-market offer from Denver. He gave a discount to a contender not located in New England.
My take is similar to yours - however I'm not surprised or even upset by Welker's move.
I felt there was some clear animosity between he and Belichick over the last few years. Welker and Belichick both artfully glossed over it - but it was there.
Whether it was the benching on the Rex Feet jokes, the lack of a long term contract, lack of appreciation that Welker didn't hold out, benching early in the last season to see if Edelman could play the role - whatever, I think it was eating at Welker and I felt that was going to complicate negotiations.
I just had a gut feeling that if Welker got a comparable offer from another contending team, he was probably going to take it.
In the end, it's true his agent over-estimated his market value.
But in the end I think Welker only had a small handful of teams other than the Patriots in mind - and the fact that he chose the Broncos for less money shows that he's as serious about contending for another Super Bowl as he is driven by money. (i.e. I think if I had to pick a team other than the Patriots I thought would contend next year it would be Denver or the 49ers)
While I understand why Welker may have animosity towards the organization, I don't think the organization treated him unfairly. Although he was running the risk of injury, he was ultimately very well paid by the team.
So I'm not shocked - or angry. In fact I'm pretty intrigued to see how they re-shape the offense - and I have a feeling a three TE offense may wind up being pretty dominant (though I still pine for a true deep threat WR)