We Usually Get A Couple Of Rookie Contributors

[manxman2601]

As always, Bill will hedge himself between draft picks and trades/free agent signings. Don’t believe he ever truly drafts a player with a “plug and play” outlook when making draft picks. Instead its more of thinking how likely is draft pick X going to fill this spot, and based on that how many resources is he comfortable with allocating into the alternative option that will create competition.

What Bill isn’t doing is looking at a roster and saying “okay, let’s bring in 4 draft picks and 4 free agent signings or trades to address these 8 spots”. It’s much more fluid and open minded than that.

Agree to some extent, but it’s also true that last year, Nate Solder and Dion Lewis were our biggest non-replaced FA last year and we drafted OT/RB in the first round. BB will absolutely consider “plug and play” when it comes to filling needs through draft picks. But I also agree that there is often more nuance than that and that if those plug and play replacements aren’t there, he is prepared to field a weaker position on the roster. I remember one year when we were very weak at DT and WR has regularly been a position of weakness.

 

[DarrylS]

It has always amazed me during this run that just about 25% of the roster turns over every year, this year I suspect that will happen as well.

With Gilmore's restructure, Gronk's retirement and rumors of #12's restructure, there will be more money available.

What we see now as our roster, will be much different than the team we field come September.. the June cuts will be significant.

My hope this year is that Brady will be available for OTA's so he can work with our new cast of characters and acclimate them to the Pats playbook.

 

[SBLIII]

As always, Bill will hedge himself between draft picks and trades/free agent signings. Don’t believe he ever truly drafts a player with a “plug and play” outlook when making draft picks. Instead its more of thinking how likely is draft pick X going to fill this spot, and based on that how many resources is he comfortable with allocating into the alternative option that will create competition.

What Bill isn’t doing is looking at a roster and saying “okay, let’s bring in 4 draft picks and 4 free agent signings or trades to address these 8 spots”. It’s much more fluid and open minded than that.

I think this is mostly true. But I believe he certainly looked at Wynn/Brown and Michel as direct replacements for Solder and Lewis. And it worked. But this only works for 1st round picks and maybe up to mid 2nd round picks. After that it becomes much more a projection and I agree with BBs approach.

 

[SBLIII]

Looking at the roster we likely have about 13 open roster spots right now. We'll probably see 7-8 rookies on the team, so 5-6 spots for vets per trade/FA

 

[manxman2601]

As I see it, the team has three major needs: DT, WR, TE. Depending on who’s available, all three are in play at 32. But, with the two top TEs in Fant/Hockenson likely off the board by then and the very deep and very versatile WR class, DT makes the most sense for me with Tillery, Lawrence and Simmons all being possibly available at that pick. Also, TE seems to make sense at 56 or 64 (possibly with a trade up) because Irv Smith, Sternberger and Dawson Knox all seem to slot into that range.

 

[mgteich]

Obviously, we'll see. I certainly expect the TE's to compete for the 3 TE spots. I don't expect more than one to be on the 53. Do you?

Who is the 4th OT?
We have Wynn and Cannon.

If you don’t believe Wynn replaces brown he at least replaced waddle.
Clayborns replacement may well be on the roster.
Harris is the Patterson replacement
Anderson and lacosse and izzo are part of the TE replacement competition.

 

[mgteich]

Why isn’t Wynn sufficient to replace Brown? He’s likely either a replacement for Brown or Waddle.

Do you believe that we should have 3 OT's? Wynn, Cannon and one more?

I would prefer to have a veteran plus a draftee future replacement for Cannon on the 53.

 

[manxman2601]

Do you believe that we should have 3 OT's? Wynn, Cannon and one more?

I would prefer to have a veteran plus a draftee future replacement for Cannon on the 53.

I do but that means we only have to draft/sign one.

 

[mgteich]

Looking at the roster we likely have about 13 open roster spots right now. We'll probably see 7-8 rookies on the team, so 5-6 spots for vets per trade/FA

Ok, I got to 13.
I suspect that some of the 13 might be filled by players already on the team. In that case, we will have fewer vets and draftees. Obviously, we will also lose TBD injuries during camp, opening up roster spots.

ST's (2)
We need a kicker and a LB/Ster to replace McClellan

OFFENSE (6)
WR (2)
Presuming that Gordon is on the 53, there are 2 open spots, one of which might be filled by Berrios, Harris or Ellington (they might fill 2 if Gordon is delayed).
TE (2)
Presumably one will be filled by Hollister, Izzo, LeCosse, or Anderson (could be 2)
RB (0) could be 1
QB (0) could be 1
OT (1) swing veteran
OL (1) developmental OG or OT

DEFENSE (5)
CB (0)
S (1) we can hope; could be Melifonwu
LB (1) an emergency backup and/or developmental player
DT (1) could be Kamalu
DE (1) could be Rivers or Davis
DL (1) could be Rivers or Davis or Kamalu
[I have a current DL of Bennett, Guy, Pennell, Wise, Butler and Simon, with 3 to be added]

 

[Brewskies]

All of those spots don’t need to be filled by rookies.

I don't think that mgteich said these spots had to be filled by rookies. He stated that we usually get 2-3 rookies to fill spots, Period.

Then mgteich started in his opinion about what the team needed for improvement, 8 spots and I agree with him.

I doubt that any Patriot's fan would think it is realistic to believe we could fill 8 spots with rookies.

 

[Brewskies]

As I always say, I trust BB to do the best possible for the team. Injuries are an unknown that can screw up the plan.

Go BB

 

[manxman2601]

I don't think that mgteich said these spots had to be filled by rookies. He stated that we usually get 2-3 rookies to fill spots, Period.

Then mgteich started in his opinion about what the team needed for improvement, 8 spots and I agree with him.

I doubt that any Patriot's fan would think it is realistic to believe we could fill 8 spots with rookies.

Assuming no trades which, admittedly is unlikely, we have six picks in the first three rounds so they would almost certainly make the roster. Then you can probably rely on a UDFA or two to make the team. I think six rookies is a very strong possibility. Of course, that doesn’t account for injuries or the Foxboro flu.

 

[mgteich]

I guess that I have been confusing. I'll restate.

1) I believe that it is reasonable to believe that 2-3 rookies will be MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS. Last year, those players were Michel and Jackson. Bentley and Wynn would have been, absent injuries. Dawson was less likely, but would likely have replaced Jackson in reps if Dawson were healthy. So, FOR ME, 2018 was a very good year for rookies. We also have potential contributors in Dawson, Izzo, and Crossen.

2) As manxman has stated, rookies drafted early make the team; every 4th rounder or earlier has made the 53 or IR since 2000 (no exceptions). I expect 6 such picks, and 7-9 rookies overall to make the 53. As always, that number looks high so early, but there will be injuries.

3) I expect to see lots of additional free agent signings and trades. Hopefully 4-6 make the 53. My hope is that we add vets at OT, DE, DT, K, WR, TE, ST and WR. Obviously, not all will make the 53. We need camp bodies, and we need competition for roster spots.

 

[Ring 6]

Obviously, we'll see. I certainly expect the TE's to compete for the 3 TE spots. I don't expect more than one to be on the 53. Do you?

Who is the 4th OT?
We have Wynn and Cannon.

The 4th OT isn’t a continuitor. If you are changing the definition of contributor to makes the team then the number of rookies will be much higher

 

[zydecochris]

The 4th OT isn’t a continuitor. If you are changing the definition of contributor to makes the team then the number of rookies will be much higher

I know Wynn is young and doesn’t have an extensive injury history (which is good), but I thought his type of Achilles injury usually took more than a year to completely come back from, in contrast to something like an ACL tear where recovery times are going down. Any info from the board on that? Do we expect Wynn back fit as a fiddle at the beginning of the year?

 

[captain stone]

As I see it, the team has three major needs: DT, WR, TE...

DE is a Much bigger need here than DT.

 

[mgteich]

DE is a Much bigger need here than DT.

Perhaps. At DT, we need a contributor, an equivalent and upgrade from Shelton. This shouldn't be all that difficult. I expect us to sign a free agent or take for a DT, as we have before. Also, I don't think Shelton has been signed by anyone. At De, we need an upgrade of Clayborn. Again, we need one player. I agree that this one player could have a greater effect than the DT addition.
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At DE, we have Bennett, Simon and Wise. (and Rivers and Davis). One of our LB's can be of help on the EDGE. Both VanNoy and Hightower can perform this function.

At DT, we have Pennell, Guy, and Butler (and Kamalu)

 

[manxman2601]

DE is a Much bigger need here than DT.

Disagree. We only have two early down DTs.

Edit: when did we get David Parry?

 

[Ring 6]

Perhaps. At DT, we need a contributor, an equivalent and upgrade from Shelton. This shouldn't be all that difficult. I expect us to sign a free agent or take for a DT, as we have before. Also, I don't think Shelton has been signed by anyone. At De, we need an upgrade of Clayborn. Again, we need one player. I agree that this one player could have a greater effect than the DT addition.
============
At DE, we have Bennett, Simon and Wise. (and Rivers and Davis). One of our LB's can be of help on the EDGE. Both VanNoy and Hightower can perform this function.

At DT, we have Pennell, Guy, and Butler (and Kamalu)

Kamalu is a de who can move inside on 3rd down, not part of the DT rotation.

 

[Ring 6]

Disagree. We only have two early down DTs.

Edit: when did we get David Parry?

Futures contract 1/9/19