I think I can help put some things into perspective for this game.
I did power rankings for every team this week, looking at how they play at home/on the road, depending where they’re playing this week.
The stats I look at are home/away record, their Intelligence Index, and their Total Team Rating.
First, looking at their Record, the Patriots are ranked 1st with a 4-0 record at home while the Packers are ranked last out of the 24 team playing this week with a 0-3 record on the road. Not much analysis needed for that.
The Intelligence Index is Bendability-Scoreability.
Bendability and Scoreability are both calculated by doing Yards/Points. Bendability is the Defensive Yards and Points, Scoreability is the Offensive.
A low number as a result is good for Scoreability, because the lower the number the more efficiently an offense scores (really how efficiently the team scores. Defensive/Special Team TD’s, turnovers, field position etc. play a part in Bendability and Scoreability). And the higher the number for Bendability, the stingier the team is at allowing scores.
The Patriots at home have a Scoreability of 12.16. So it takes them 12.16 yards to score 1 point and 85.12 to score 7. They have a Bendability of 15.19. So opposing offenses have to travel 106.33 yards to score 7 points. They have an Intelligence Index score of 3.03 which is ranked 8th.
The Packers’ Scoreability on the road is at 18.21. So it takes them 127.47 yards to score 7 points. Their Bendability is at 11.71, so it takes opposing offenses 81.97 yards to score 7 points. Their Intelligence Index score is -6.50 which is ranked 22nd.
The Total Team Rating is basically Passer Rating Differential for the whole team. Cold Hard Football Facts created Real Quarterback Rating which is Passer Rating with a QB’s rushes, sacks, and fumbles thrown in and it was wildly successful so I just applied it to the whole team.
The Patriot’s Offensive Rating at home is a 100.3 while their defense is an 84.5. So their Total Team Rating at home is a 15.8, which is ranked 5th.
The Packer’s Offensive Rating on the road is an 85.0 while their defense is a 99.8. So their Total Team Rating is a -14.8, which is ranked 20th.
The Patriots at home ranked number 4th overall in this week’s power rankings while the Packers on the road are 23rd out of 24 teams.
So on paper this should be a Patriots blowout.
But naturally it’s gonna be a high scoring shootout that comes down to the last second so what do I know
