Vegas' 2024 Over/Under Win Total for Pats: 4.5

[Force Zero Boomer]

From the staff perspective, coaching was an issue last year. No doubt BB at his peak was a much better coach than Mayo will be in his first year of coaching. Based on the stories of infighting, illness and incompetence coaching as a whole should be better even with the loss of BB.

Maybe, we will find out. I hope so.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

The offense may not be productive but I expect them to be watchable at least. They weren’t last season.

I don’t think the BB from the last couple of years is an upgrade over any coach.

Expectations will be lower, the beginning of the post-BB era will spark curiosity, Drake Maye will be a draw if he plays, Mayo’s progression will be interesting, players from this year’s draft will be a focus, … and if they start winning more games than they should it could get fun, creating an arc the NFL will have to adjust for (a few featured games?).

Re BB, it depends on how restrictive you want to be. If you want to consider him broadly, then yeah, it wasn’t good. But game preparation and in game decision making? I’m not sure if he really lost much on his fastball.

 

[mgteich]

No, it’s like saying that the Pats won 4 games with Bill Fing Belichick last year, and if some think they’ll do much better than 4 with all the changes and the loss of the greatest game coach ever, they are smoking some strong stuff. And I hit on the uncertainty with the staff. Even with BB, lesser coaches still hurt the team. When Scar retired and DeGuglielmo took over, BB had to beg him to come back the play was so poor.

So all the other top 10 coaches ever would have been losers if they had Brady?

I suspect that many of the top 10 all-time coaches would have done very, very well in 2001-2019 with Brady.

 

[TheRainMaker]

No, it’s like saying that the Pats won 4 games with Bill Fing Belichick last year, and if some think they’ll do much better than 4 with all the changes and the loss of the greatest game coach ever, they are smoking some strong stuff. And I hit on the uncertainty with the staff. Even with BB, lesser coaches still hurt the team. When Scar retired and DeGuglielmo took over, BB had to beg him to come back the play was so poor.

If you're implying that Mayo is going to do worse than Bill, than I agree. The problem I have with Mayo is that he isn't known for anything other than a discophile of BB - and we know Bill's assistants don't have a good track record. Most of the elite HC's are known for something and were hired based on what they did as an assistant. The defense is going to drop off because Mayo isn't Bill and Bill was the master of taking many mediocre players, disguising their weaknesses and putting them in positions where they won't get exposed. Of course, he can't save everyone and you'll have guys like Myles Bryant (among others) sticking out like a sore thumb. The lack of talent on D is going to show up because they don't have Bill disguising their weaknesses.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

So all the other top 10 coaches ever would have been losers if they had Brady?

I suspect that many of the top 10 all-time coaches would have done very, very well in 2001-2019 with Brady.

Did I say anything like that? Did I even mention Brady? I don't understand where you coming from. Did I compare BB to anyone other than Mayo, who is a virtual unknown? My point is that without BB, that team probably wins 2 games. If Mayo even wins 4, hats off.

Perhaps you are missing context? I was replying to Ivan, who said this:

However unlike Belichick the success or failure of the franchise will depend upon multiple people, with Wolf responsible for player personnel, Van Pelt responsible for the offensive play and production, and Mayo responsible for overall coaching, as well as game performances of the team as a whole. We will have a much clearer idea of whether he is a good or bad coach 3-4years from now.

I was partly making the case that even BB was very reliant on good coaching by giving the example of Scar's retirement, DeGuglielmo's failure, and Scar's return.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

If you're implying that Mayo is going to do worse than Bill, than I agree. The problem I have with Mayo is that he isn't known for anything other than a discophile of BB - and we know Bill's assistants don't have a good track record. Most of the elite HC's are known for something and were hired based on what they did as an assistant. The defense is going to drop off because Mayo isn't Bill and Bill was the master of taking many mediocre players, disguising their weaknesses and putting them in positions where they won't get exposed. Of course, he can't save everyone and you'll have guys like Myles Bryant (among others) sticking out like a sore thumb. The lack of talent on D is going to show up because they don't have Bill disguising their weaknesses.

I agree. People are taking the defense's excellent performance for granted, without recognizing that one of the greatest defensive minds in football history has left the building and isn't going to be coaching them up.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I was partly making the case that even BB was very reliant on good coaching by giving the example of Scar's retirement, DeGuglielmo's failure, and Scar's return.

Yup. This is an underrated reason why the 10 year drought happened. Bill's coaching staff in the beginning was the best and the majority of them weren't arrogant pricks (aside from Mangini).

I agree. People are taking the defense's excellent performance for granted, without recognizing that one of the greatest defensive minds in football history has left the building and isn't going to be coaching them up.

Bill had a hard time slowing down the better offenses in the NFL since 2020, so Mayo is going to have a rude awakening.

 

[mgteich]

Did I say anything like that? Did I even mention Brady? I don't understand where you coming from. Did I compare BB to anyone other than Mayo, who is a virtual unknown? My point is that without BB, that team probably wins 2 games. If Mayo even wins 4, hats off.

Perhaps you are missing context? I was replying to Ivan, who said this:

I was partly making the case that even BB was very reliant on good coaching by giving the example of Scar's retirement, DeGuglielmo's failure, and Scar's return.

thank you for clarifying
2 wins with bill
hats off to mayo if he equals last year's 4 wins

 

[borg]

I agree. People are taking the defense's excellent performance for granted, without recognizing that one of the greatest defensive minds in football history has left the building and isn't going to be coaching them up.

The combination of the inspirational mural and Mayo's one year "executive" experience as a celebrity intern at a healthcare company will ignite fireworks
Sprinkle in some Brissett-magic........................

 

[Huckleberry1]

Did I say anything like that? Did I even mention Brady? I don't understand where you coming from. Did I compare BB to anyone other than Mayo, who is a virtual unknown? My point is that without BB, that team probably wins 2 games. If Mayo even wins 4, hats off.

Perhaps you are missing context? I was replying to Ivan, who said this:

I was partly making the case that even BB was very reliant on good coaching by giving the example of Scar's retirement, DeGuglielmo's failure, and Scar's return.

My point is that following the GOAT in anything is always a thankless task. And gauging the coach or player doing that before they even begin to do it is foolish.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I agree. People are taking the defense's excellent performance for granted, without recognizing that one of the greatest defensive minds in football history has left the building and isn't going to be coaching them up.

People are well aware Belichick is still a great defensive mind and coach.

 

[sb1]

People are well aware Belichick is still a great defensive mind and coach.

Bill could probably still get any DC job he wanted. As HC that ship has sailed.

 

[1960Pats]

The offense may not be productive but I expect them to be watchable at least. They weren’t last season.

I don’t think the BB from the last couple of years is an upgrade over any coach.

The word to describe that offense is putrid.

 

[1960Pats]

Expectations will be lower, the beginning of the post-BB era will spark curiosity, Drake Maye will be a draw if he plays, Mayo’s progression will be interesting, players from this year’s draft will be a focus, … and if they start winning more games than they should it could get fun, creating an arc the NFL will have to adjust for (a few featured games?).

Re BB, it depends on how restrictive you want to be. If you want to consider him broadly, then yeah, it wasn’t good. But game preparation and in game decision making? I’m not sure if he really lost much on his fastball.

The Pats benefitted from the greatest defensive HC in the game drafting the greatest offensive mind at QB. And to top it off the HC was an authoritarian and the QB was highly respectful of authority. End of story for the NYFL.

 

[1960Pats]

As for the Pats win total, put me down for the over. Normally I bet the over and lose but I have a feeling about this season compared to last. They didn't have a QB last year and this year they have one or two of them.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

thank you for clarifying
2 wins with bill
hats off to mayo if he equals last year's 4 wins

*without BB

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

My point is that following the GOAT in anything is always a thankless task. And gauging the coach or player doing that before they even begin to do it is foolish.

I wasn’t using BB as a measuring stick for Mayo. I’ll be content if he’s average in year one.

People are well aware Belichick is still a great defensive mind and coach.

Have you seen all the comments that assume equal or better performance from the defense? Some provide justification, such as referencing Gonzalez’s return. But few acknowledge the massive vacuum BB leaves behind. Maybe it’s filled and maybe they are as good or better. But that’s far from certain and cannot be taken for granted.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I wasn’t using BB as a measuring stick for Mayo. I’ll be content if he’s average in year one.

Have you seen all the comments that assume equal or better performance from the defense? Some provide justification, such as referencing Gonzalez’s return. But few acknowledge the massive vacuum BB leaves behind. Maybe it’s filled and maybe they are as good or better. But that’s far from certain and cannot be taken for granted.

That’s because much of the defensive staff is still in place, and the personnel is good, but the coaches will have to demonstrate how much they have learned under Belichick to continue to be a strong defense. The other part of that equation comes from just how bad the offense hung the defense out to dry the past two seasons. They were always on the field, and never playing with a lead, both are seriously detrimental to playing strong defense. Hopefully Van Pelts focus on running the ball effectively will lead to more time of possession and a fresher defense, especially when games are in the line.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Bill could probably still get any DC job he wanted. As HC that ship has sailed.

Not necessarily. If the Cowboys falter again this year under McCarthy there could be a drumbeat in Dallas to bring in Belichick, especially if it comes with MacDaniels as OC.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Not necessarily. If the Cowboys falter again this year under McCarthy there could be a drumbeat in Dallas to bring in Belichick, especially if it comes with MacDaniels as OC.

As much as I hate Jerrah and the Cowboys, it would be perfect theatre if BB took one last kick at the can in Dallas.