Vegas' 2024 Over/Under Win Total for Pats: 4.5

[mgteich]

The over is the smart bet. Doesn't mean it will happen but betting the over statistically is the play.

Only 2 teams since the 17-game schedule started have been ranked top 10 on defense on football reference and did not win at least 7 games. Both those teams had one of the worst offenses in the league that year.

I went back to 2018 and not 1 team with a top 10 defense and an offense that scored 300 points finished worse than 7 wins.

The question is, does the defense go backwards without BB? Or will it climb into top 10 with the injured players back and an improved offense not putting them in bad field positions and not having terrible time of possession?

A top 10 Defense and an offense not in the bottom 5 is almost guaranteed 7 wins. Patriots had an all-time bad offensive output last year.

Odds heavily favor the over and if they deem Maye good enough to start day 1 it'd be a no brainer bet. I'd wager heavily on the over then.

so, then the question is whether our Offense will be better than Bottom 5?

and whether our Defense is in the top 10?

I would note that these two results would very likely give us at least SEVEN wins.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Over

 

[Real fan 02]

so, then the question is whether our Offense will be better than Bottom 5?

and whether our Defense is in the top 10?

I would note that these two results would very likely give us at least SEVEN wins.

Absolutely agree. We know our D is top 10, I'd say top 5 realistically..

 

[Huckleberry1]

so, then the question is whether our Offense will be better than Bottom 5?

and whether our Defense is in the top 10?

I would note that these two results would very likely give us at least SEVEN wins.

The defense is very good, and fully intact. The offense is better than last season’s was. I’ll take the over.

 

[Real fan 02]

The defense is very good, and fully intact. The offense is better than last season’s was. I’ll take the over.

Absolutely agree! Gives us a top 10, top 15 offense I like our chances

 

[Huckleberry1]

Absolutely agree! Gives us a top 10, top 15 offense I like our chances

I don’t believe they have a top 15 offense. It’s going to be better than the worst offense in the league, which is what they had last year, but I will have to see a big improvement to jump half the league.

 

[Real fan 02]

I don’t believe they have a top 15 offense. It’s going to be better than the worst offense in the league, which is what they had last year, but I will have to see a big improvement to jump half the league.

Well it considered what a top 15 offense looks like.. 23 PPG , 43% 3rd down conversation rate for example could be considered a middling offense.. that would be good enough for this team to win 8-9 games. No one can definitive know what we have until week 1.. I believe the unknown in my opinion is more optimistic to me than the last few seasons offensively.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Well it considered what a top 15 offense looks like.. 23 PPG , 43% 3rd down conversation rate for example could be considered a middling offense.. that would be good enough for this team to win 8-9 games. No one can definitive know what we have until week 1.. I believe the unknown in my opinion is more optimistic to me than the last few seasons offensively.

That’s hope speaking, they haven’t done enough in terms of roster to jump half the offenses in football. Should it be better than last season? Yes. Have they added enough offensively to overtake the offensive production of more than half the league-from the worst offense in football? No.

I believe they will be a better team than last season, but there are a bunch of players who have to do it on the field first before we can gauge how much improvement there has been.

 

[Real fan 02]

That’s hope speaking, they haven’t done enough in terms of roster to jump half the offenses in football. Should it be better than last season? Yes. Have they added enough offensively to overtake the offensive production of more than half the league-from the worst offense in football? No.

I believe they will be a better team than last season, but there are a bunch of players who have to do it on the field first before we can gauge how much improvement there has been.

Oh I hear what you are saying. What you have to take under consideration that the QB position, yes even with Brissett as a bridge is an upgrade over the position from last season. Our current WR corps as constructed is likely better than what Mahomes or Allen have right now. The difference? The QB. Who's throwing to those WRs.. we both can agree they will be better on offense.. 32nd is 32nd as we were last season in every offensive category that matters. With an angry defense that wants people to respect them, and a improved offense is conducive to winning. However we don't know for sure until week 1..

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

It is spot on for many reasons:

1. Inexperienced first year coach who has never even been a coordinator
2. backup qb as starter, rookie as backup
3. No # 1 WR
4. Potentially weak OL
5. New OC and new DC
6. tough division and conference

Take the under

There's much uncertainty. As you say, the coach, the coordinators, the OL, and the QB situation are all up in the air, and even if some are solid, if Mayo turns out to be an awful head coach (not unrealistic), or if the OL is horrendous, then we're in for a bad time. Four wins is my best guess. I don't know how much action that wager has so far, but if it gets popular the number will likely be close to reality.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

4-6 wins, I'd take the over. If the defense is as good as last season and no way the offense can be worse than last so yeah, the over.

Both could be worse with all the coaching changes. There's a lot of uncertainty. And if the offense is just as bad while the defense stays the same, it's likely they lose more games because they won't have the greatest coach in NFL history at game time. The Pats are going to miss BB after they get a dose of Mayo.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Both could be worse with all the coaching changes. There's a lot of uncertainty. And if the offense is just as bad while the defense stays the same, it's likely they lose more games because they won't have the greatest coach in NFL history at game time. The Pats are going to miss BB after they get a dose of Mayo.

This is like saying “ Patriot fans are going to miss Tom Brady.” No coach is going to be as good as the greatest coach in NFL history. And they aran’t going to win 6 more Lombardi’s and have another 20 year dynasty again either. Whether or not Mayo will be a good or bad coach is completely up for grabs. The only thing we know in that regard is that he’s been an integral part of their defensive coaching staff, and their defense has been very good. However unlike Belichick the success or failure of the franchise will depend upon multiple people, with Wolf responsible for player personnel, Van Pelt responsible for the offensive play and production, and Mayo responsible for overall coaching, as well as game performances of the team as a whole. We will have a much clearer idea of whether he is a good or bad coach 3-4years from now.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Both could be worse with all the coaching changes. There's a lot of uncertainty. And if the offense is just as bad while the defense stays the same, it's likely they lose more games because they won't have the greatest coach in NFL history at game time. The Pats are going to miss BB after they get a dose of Mayo.

From the staff perspective, coaching was an issue last year. No doubt BB at his peak was a much better coach than Mayo will be in his first year of coaching. Based on the stories of infighting, illness and incompetent coaching as a whole should be better even with the loss of BB.

 

[mgteich]

Well it considered what a top 15 offense looks like.. 23 PPG , 43% 3rd down conversation rate for example could be considered a middling offense.. that would be good enough for this team to win 8-9 games. No one can definitive know what we have until week 1.. I believe the unknown in my opinion is more optimistic to me than the last few seasons offensively.

With a top 15 Offense and a top 5 to top 10 Defense we would be contending for a playoff spot.

I don't think that we will be a top half Offense this year. HOWEVER, that's fine. Being top 20-25 would be a massive improvement over 2023.

 

[sb1]

Both could be worse with all the coaching changes. There's a lot of uncertainty. And if the offense is just as bad while the defense stays the same, it's likely they lose more games because they won't have the greatest coach in NFL history at game time.
The Pats are going to miss BB after they get a dose of Mayo.

The offense may not be productive but I expect them to be watchable at least. They weren’t last season.

I don’t think the BB from the last couple of years is an upgrade over any coach.

 

[Real fan 02]

This is like saying “ Patriot fans are going to miss Tom Brady.” No coach is going to be as good as the greatest coach in NFL history. And they aran’t going to win 6 more Lombardi’s and have another 20 year dynasty again either. Whether or not Mayo will be a good or bad coach is completely up for grabs. The only thing we know in that regard is that he’s been an integral part of their defensive coaching staff, and their defense has been very good. However unlike Belichick the success or failure of the franchise will depend upon multiple people, with Wolf responsible for player personnel, Van Pelt responsible for the offensive play and production, and Mayo responsible for overall coaching, as well as game performances of the team as a whole. We will have a much clearer idea of whether he is a good or bad coach 3-4years from now.

Excellent post! You hit everything in the spot. I'll add that Ryan's like mayo, if, In wich I believe he is.. Drake turns out to be the " guy" then Mayo's tenure will go alot more fluid. People give Tomlin criticism however he's the NFLs longest tenured HC, never had a loosing season. If Mayo ended up with a career like Tomlin that's impressive if you really think about it.

Drake and Mayo are tied together. Mayo has a elite defense and #3 pick to start his tenure off with. Bill asked for the dual role of HC/GM.

However I'd like Mayo to focus on coaching and Wolf to focus on gathering talent.

 

[Real fan 02]

The offense may not be productive but I expect them to be watchable at least. They weren’t last season.

I don’t think the BB from the last couple of years is an upgrade over any coach.

Agreed, and spot on 100% !! Without adequate a QB no matter how legendary a coach you are winning is just not possible. I personally have them being a decent to good offense... AVP.. is a QB whisperer.. the guy knows offense..

 

[Real fan 02]

From the staff perspective, coaching was an issue last year. No doubt BB at his peak was a much better coach than Mayo will be in his first year of coaching. Based on the stories of infighting, illness and incompetence coaching as a whole should be better even with the loss of BB.

Bill from 2001-2021.. was absolutely the best at his craft... 22 and up not so much... Bill calling offensive plays by the end of 22 should have told us how bad it was.. it's all about Drake from here on out.. I feel like he's the guy.. I hope I'm right.

 

[mgteich]

Bill from 2001-2021.. was absolutely the best at his craft... 22 and up not so much... Bill calling offensive plays by the end of 22 should have told us how bad it was.. it's all about Drake from here on out.. I feel like he's the guy.. I hope I'm right.

And Mayo, with a Brady would be a top coach for the next 20 years.

Unless we get a Mahomes, we need to learn to transition to new perspective, competing for the SB with a top 10 QB or even a top 15 QB. Otherwise, we are just hoping that out current QB is another Mahomes, not much of a plan.
=========
Consider the current landscape. IS KC unbeatable, or just the most likely to win. If it is the latter, then we should build to be one of the non-Mahomes teams that win a QB in the next 10 years.

 

[Force Zero Boomer]

This is like saying “ Patriot fans are going to miss Tom Brady.” No coach is going to be as good as the greatest coach in NFL history. And they aran’t going to win 6 more Lombardi’s and have another 20 year dynasty again either. Whether or not Mayo will be a good or bad coach is completely up for grabs. The only thing we know in that regard is that he’s been an integral part of their defensive coaching staff, and their defense has been very good. However unlike Belichick the success or failure of the franchise will depend upon multiple people, with Wolf responsible for player personnel, Van Pelt responsible for the offensive play and production, and Mayo responsible for overall coaching, as well as game performances of the team as a whole. We will have a much clearer idea of whether he is a good or bad coach 3-4years from now.

No, it’s like saying that the Pats won 4 games with Bill Fing Belichick last year, and if some think they’ll do much better than 4 with all the changes and the loss of the greatest game coach ever, they are smoking some strong stuff. And I hit on the uncertainty with the staff. Even with BB, lesser coaches still hurt the team. When Scar retired and DeGuglielmo took over, BB had to beg him to come back the play was so poor.