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Value Of Future Draft Picks

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Bills
Pick Results: NE: 0% at BUF: 0%

Mon
Dec 6th

Current Patriots Twitter Feed:

mgteich

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How much is our 2022 first worth? Our 2022 2nd?

Folk say that they would never trade away our future picks. Obviously, that depends on how much they are perceived to be worth.
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I think that we used to say that a next year 1sr was worth as much as a current year 2nd? Is that reasonable anymore, if it ever was reasonable?
 

masterbouncer

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
NFL Picks Grand Champ!
How much is our 2022 first worth? Our 2022 2nd?

Folk say that they would never trade away our future picks. Obviously, that depends on how much they are perceived to be worth.
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I think that we used to say that a next year 1sr was worth as much as a current year 2nd? Is that reasonable anymore, if it ever was reasonable?
when you were constnatly in the SB your first is around 31-32 pick, so it is basically a high second round, thats not the case when you are a 7-9 team picking around 12-17 each round, the value has to be different there when you are closer to the real top guys
 

ctpatsfan77

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The question is whether Belichick sees the value.

The trade for Dalton Keene was the first time in 20 years that BB used future year draft capital to move up for a rookie player, and that was a single day 3 pick.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
How much is our 2022 first worth? Our 2022 2nd?

Folk say that they would never trade away our future picks. Obviously, that depends on how much they are perceived to be worth.
==========
I think that we used to say that a next year 1sr was worth as much as a current year 2nd? Is that reasonable anymore, if it ever was reasonable?
My understanding is that a 1st next year has the value of a 2nd this year, but that leaves out where you are projecting to pick in the first next year. Example: Trading their first in 2022 for Garrapolo doesn’t factor in the notion that the Patriots would expect that Garrapolo would lead them to a playoff spot and hopefully more, leaving the pick in the 26-32 range.
 

Sciz

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You have to somewhat limit this to good teams that trade up, because nobody is going to expect the Patriots to suck if they get one of the top QBs. On the Rich Hill trade chart, the Pats/Saints Mark Ingram trade valued the Saints' future 1st at pick 51 in the present year. The Packers/Saints Marcus Davenport trade valued the Saints' future 1st at pick 57. The Eagles/Dolphins trade from 12 to 6 this year valued the Dolphins' future 1st at pick 61. Given that we're talking about a rookie QB rather than Brees/Tua, I'd say it's probably close to interchangeable with pick 46 this year.

The 2007 Pats/49ers trade is what comes to mind as the opposite, valuing the 49ers' 2008 1st between picks 33 and 34 in the present. It ended up being 7th overall, which was then traded down to take Mayo.
 

ctpatsfan77

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The 2007 Pats/49ers trade is what comes to mind as the opposite, valuing the 49ers' 2008 1st between picks 33 and 34 in the present. It ended up being 7th overall, which was then traded down to take Mayo.
That was like the Houston/Cleveland trade that ended up giving CLE the #4 pick after Watson tore his ACL (and, as a reminder, that injury happened just after the trade deadline).
 

mgteich

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My understanding is that a 1st next year has the value of a 2nd this year, but that leaves out where you are projecting to pick in the first next year. Example: Trading their first in 2022 for Garrapolo doesn’t factor in the notion that the Patriots would expect that Garrapolo would lead them to a playoff spot and hopefully more, leaving the pick in the 26-32 range.
Agreed.

Folks seem very set to keep our 2022 first, and seem to have much less problem trading our 2021 2nd.

Some of the perceived value should be how we value next year's draft. Our next year's pick in the low teen's or twenty's may be worth less than this year's second.
 

Ivan

Hall of Fame Poster
Agreed.

Folks seem very set to keep our 2022 first, and seem to have much less problem trading our 2021 2nd.

Some of the perceived value should be how we value next year's draft. Our next year's pick in the low teen's or twenty's may be worth less than this year's second.
Im fine with them making the move either way, as if it took this year’s 2nd they could package #96, #120, and #122 to get back up into the high 50’s or low 60’s, using Hill’s trade value chart. And if it were next year’s first they could still make the same move to add a 2nd, or use #46 and either the 3rd or 2 4th’s to move up to the top of the 2nd round, provided they could find a trade partner. Jacksonville, at #33 might actually becc by willing to make the move as they need more talent, and NE really doesn’t have much room on their roster. The most likely move, IMO, is still Garrapolo for next year’s 1st, as I think S.F. Will want to recoup one of the 1st’s they gave up to move to #3. In which case the Patriots could make that trade, take J. Horn CB, K.Paye, or another top position player, and then add an offensive weapon in the 2nd round.
 

Ochmed Jones

Pro Bowl Player
2021 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
The question is whether Belichick sees the value.

The trade for Dalton Keene was the first time in 20 years that BB used future year draft capital to move up for a rookie player, and that was a single day 3 pick.

man, did we end up choking on that pick or what! Maybe somebody in the video department mislabeled the film!
 

ctpatsfan77

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man, did we end up choking on that pick or what! Maybe somebody in the video department mislabeled the film!
"What."

Belichick admitted shortly after drafting him that they viewed him as a project rather than a ready-to-go starter.
 

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