Trading Out of the First, good read

[rookBoston]

Very well articulated. Must read for fans that are hoping BB is going to draft two players Day One, come April.

2012 NFL Draft: Why the Patriots Should Trade Out of the First Round | NEPatriotsDraft.com - 2012 NFL Draft

I've been in this camp for a while. Drink the kool-aid.

 

[jmt57]

Very well articulated. Must read for fans that are hoping BB is going to draft two players Day One, come April.

2012 NFL Draft: Why the Patriots Should Trade Out of the First Round | NEPatriotsDraft.com - 2012 NFL Draft

I've been in this camp for a while. Drink the kool-aid.

While I'm not sure if I like trading down with both first round picks, I would be fine with trading down with one of the firsts. I understand that many people feel like Tom Brady only has a few years left and therefore the Pats should trade up and load up now, but I just can't get myself to buy into that logic; it seems that way of thinking could just as easily backfire and hurt the team during Brady's last few years. Not only would I prefer to have more relatively early picks, I also like the idea of 'living off the interest and not touching the principal': i.e., the perpetual additional second round pick.

That being said, perhaps the best plan is to simply wait and see how the draft unfolds. If a great offer to trade up comes along and a player the Pats really like a lot is available, go ahead and trade up - like they did for Vince Wilfork. If a great offer to trade down comes along from a desperate team with a coach and GM that are on the hot seat to make a splash, take it - and end up with two or three contributors rather than just one.

It does seem like there should be a lot of talent available in the second round this year, and there is no such thing as a sure thing in the draft. Even though it's not as popular and exciting as moving up to get a more well known name it does make sense, and it does work well.

 

[DaBruinz]

While I'm not sure if I like trading down with both first round picks, I would be fine with trading down with one of the firsts. I understand that many people feel like Tom Brady only has a few years left and therefore the Pats should trade up and load up now, but I just can't get myself to buy into that logic; it seems that way of thinking could just as easily backfire and hurt the team during Brady's last few years. Not only would I prefer to have more relatively early picks, I also like the idea of 'living off the interest and not touching the principal': i.e., the perpetual additional second round pick.

That being said, perhaps the best plan is to simply wait and see how the draft unfolds. If a great offer to trade up comes along and a player the Pats really like a lot is available, go ahead and trade up - like they did for Vince Wilfork. If a great offer to trade down comes along from a desperate team with a coach and GM that are on the hot seat to make a splash, take it - and end up with two or three contributors rather than just one.

It does seem like there should be a lot of talent available in the second round this year, and there is no such thing as a sure thing in the draft. Even though it's not as popular and exciting as moving up to get a more well known name it does make sense, and it does work well.

One of the things that the article misses and that BB and Pioli have both said is that they never go into the draft saying "We're going to trade out, no matter what". Or "We're going to hold onto the picks no matter what". BB always keeps his options open and waits to see how the draft plays out.

If someone is willing to give him a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year for a pick, I'm sure BB would consider it. Especially if all their 1st tier players are off the board. However, if BB thinks that he needs to move up to get a Fletcher Cox because he believes that Cox rates an 8 and the next player only rates a 6, then he's going to do it IF he can find a trade partner.

People need to remember that teams have to be willing to trade with the Patriots and be willing to give the Pats what the Pats want. Otherwise, the Pats won't trade. All too often we've heard people whine and complain that the Pats didn't trade up so they could get a Kerrigan or some other binky yet they forget that the other team has to be willing to trade as well.

 

[manxman2601]

One of the things that the article misses and that BB and Pioli have both said is that they never go into the draft saying "We're going to trade out, no matter what". Or "We're going to hold onto the picks no matter what". BB always keeps his options open and waits to see how the draft plays out.

If someone is willing to give him a 2nd this year and a 2nd next year for a pick, I'm sure BB would consider it. Especially if all their 1st tier players are off the board. However, if BB thinks that he needs to move up to get a Fletcher Cox because he believes that Cox rates an 8 and the next player only rates a 6, then he's going to do it IF he can find a trade partner.

People need to remember that teams have to be willing to trade with the Patriots and be willing to give the Pats what the Pats want. Otherwise, the Pats won't trade. All too often we've heard people whine and complain that the Pats didn't trade up so they could get a Kerrigan or some other binky yet they forget that the other team has to be willing to trade as well.

Of course you are right. However, this might be the year where there is value in trading up provided there's someone there the Patriots like. After the top six or seven, there's a lot of prospects at similar positions who likely grade fairly similarly (Kirkpatrick, Gilmore, Jenkins or Still, Thompson, Brockers, Poe for example) and teams might like the opportunity to pick up a pick by trading down and still being able to grab a player at a position of need that grades as well as the prospect they'd have picked had they not traded down. Throw in a positionally deep WR, O/L and maybe CB draft and teams might be seeking that additional pick.. The value for trading up really could be there this year.

 

[Off The Grid]

I've always been a RABID fan of Trading Down.

But there are moments when Standing Pat...can be a pretty cool hand.

 

[rookBoston]

People need to remember that teams have to be willing to trade with the Patriots and be willing to give the Pats what the Pats want. Otherwise, the Pats won't trade. All too often we've heard people whine and complain that the Pats didn't trade up so they could get a Kerrigan or some other binky yet they forget that the other team has to be willing to trade as well.

No question this is true. A good question is what team would trade into #27 or #31 and what player would they be targeting. Last year the Saints felt Mark Ingram was worth making a move. What would the trade bait be this year?

Some ideas:
Cox, Still, Worthy, Brockers. By rights, they should all be drafted in the top-25. But if one of them lasts to 27, someone might be tempted to trade up to take him. Trading partner: New Orleans, which doesn't have a 1st but needs to add some push inside.

Mark Barron if he drops to #27, I bet BB would entertain offers. S is a need for us, but Belichick might not see as big a dropoff from Barron to Harrison as another team. Trading partner: if the Jets take a WR like Floyd at 16, maybe they move up to 27 to take Barron.

Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill I have to think any number of teams would want a shot at them. Maybe someone falls in love with Stephen Hill's measurables, which are Megatronic. Trading partner: Supposing the Broncos took a lineman with their own pick, and wanted to trade up from #57 to grab a receiver to give (Manning?) another downfield target. It would cost them their 1st rounder next year... but maybe they see the value there.

Mercilus or Perry If either of them are available at #27, someone may want to make the move. Again, they play at a position of need for us, but maybe BB would rather have McClellin or Branch a bit further down the board. Trading partner: someone like Oakland, who looks like they'll lose Wembley, might panic.

Kirkpatrick or Jenkins Either one could drop to 27 for different reasons, and CB is a position where most teams want elite players. We do, too, but I think BB would prefer having lunch-pail guys like Minnefield on his roster than guys like Jenkins. Trading partner: Cinci? San Diego?

Cousins, Weeden, Osweiler If the Browns whiff on Tannehill, too, they will need to be sure of their Plan C. Trading up from 37 to make sure they get a starting QB is a small price to pay. Same for the Fins or Seattle. Trading down from 31 to 37 would only net us a 2nd rounder next year. But still worth it. The run on QBs last year was pretty dramatic. Maybe happens again. Trading partners: Cleveland, Miami, Seattle

Konz The Falcons have no first rounder, and they need a starting OC. If they want Konz, it will cost them their 2nd and a 1st next year. But I know BB would do it.

 

[manxman2601]

No question this is true. A good question is what team would trade into #27 or #31 and what player would they be targeting. Last year the Saints felt Mark Ingram was worth making a move. What would the trade bait be this year?

Some ideas:


Mark Barron if he drops to #27, I bet BB would entertain offers. S is a need for us, but Belichick might not see as big a dropoff from Barron to Harrison as another team. Trading partner: if the Jets take a WR like Floyd at 16, maybe they move up to 27 to take Barron.

If the Patriots are in the spot to draft Mark Barron but then trade that opportunity to the Jets, I will die a little inside.

 

[TealSox]

Mentioned in the article, the "win now" approach isn't a great approach for a team that wants to win over time. Most of the time, teams employing the "win now" approach will find themselves overpaying while finding a lack of depth of their team due to salary cap issues.

I've said this over and over again, but NO TEAM is ONE player away from a championship, unless that player is a bonafide franchise QB. The Bills sign Mario Williams, but he isn't going to turn that team around with 15 sacks a season. How did the Julio Jones trade work out for Atlanta last year?

 

[captain stone]

Something to also consider is that Bill has zero picks after the 4th round. I would be almost willing to bet my life that he trades at least one of his top-63 picks for one in rounds 5-7, plus a lower pick or one in 2013. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he made that trade more than once.

 

[everlong]

I've been a big proponent of trading down thus the worst case scenario @27 thread. The only other option is Cox or Brockers fall to 20 and you trade up. The players at 27 in all likelihood are of equal talent to the guys going out in the late 30's or early 40's.

 

[manxman2601]

I can see two arguments in play here, both which point in the opposite direction and leave me confused as to the Patriots intentions in this draft:

1. Last years draft and this years FA have been about value and depth. This means that BB is free to move around, nay trade up, and get key impact players which are about the only thing this team needs adding, particularly on defense but also at the WR position.

2. Last years draft and this years FA have been about value and depth. This means that BB is happy with the squad overall and tinkering around the edges is all that is needed. Fill one or two holes, have young players in place to eventually replace FA's and draft value wherever it exists. This years first round is fairly weak and BB's actions in last years weak draft suggests he'll do just that - fill holes, draft value, move picks into next year.

So in summary, based on last years draft and this years FA, he'll either: 1) Trade up and get impact players or 2)trade down and ahead.

Any clearer? No, didn't think so. Sorry about that.

 

[PATSNUTme]

To me the best player for the Patriots to take between 20-27 is Hightower. So, I'd trade up as many as 5-7 spots to get him with 27&31 and getting picks in the 3 trough 6 rounds.

Now I know that some draft rankings have Hightower ranked lower, but come draft day, my bet is that a team above #27 will be targeting him. We should jump that team and don't think that the Patriots don't know who the team is that they will have to jump.

That is, if there is a team who is willing to do that and has the later round picks.

 

[manxman2601]

I wonder if Manning to the Broncos might be good for us. There's speculation that the Broncos will trade their pick for Mike Wallace and that they'll be in win now mode. if their's a good OL there when we pick, I could see us trading our pick for Denver's second and a 2013 first or second.

 

[Mark Morse]

If the Patriots are in the spot to draft Mark Barron but then trade that opportunity to the Jets, I will die a little inside.

Barron is coming off double sports hernia surgery ... he can't work out for anybody! Who knows what shape he will be in when the season comes rolling around. I feel we can take the risk and wait until #48 to take either Barron or Harrison Smith.

In our mock draft here in the draft forum, Cox went #26. Would the Pats trade up to draft Cox? Devon Still, Jerel Worthy, Kendall Reyes and Jared Crick remain on the board. Does some team want to trade up for a QB (Wheeden)? WR (Hill)?

You must look at the horizontal board as well. Say the Pats have Still, Reyes, Worthy and Crick rated relatively the same. Maybe they trade #27 for a #2 this year and #2 next year (say pick 38). They pass on taking Barron knowing they will get one of the DT's they covet at #31. Pick #38 could be a pass rusher, pick #48 a Safety and pick #63 a CB.

 

[manxman2601]

Barron is coming off double sports hernia surgery ... he can't work out for anybody! Who knows what shape he will be in when the season comes rolling around. I feel we can take the risk and wait until #48 to take either Barron or Harrison Smith.

In our mock draft here in the draft forum, Cox went #26. Would the Pats trade up to draft Cox? Devon Still, Jerel Worthy, Kendall Reyes and Jared Crick remain on the board. Does some team want to trade up for a QB (Wheeden)? WR (Hill)?

You must look at the horizontal board as well. Say the Pats have Still, Reyes, Worthy and Crick rated relatively the same. Maybe they trade #27 for a #2 this year and #2 next year (say pick 38). They pass on taking Barron knowing they will get one of the DT's they covet at #31. Pick #38 could be a pass rusher, pick #48 a Safety and pick #63 a CB.

Yes but you fail to realise the extent of my Barron binkydom. Good arguments, as your's are won't work on me

More seriously, I actually think Barron will be a great NFL player which is why I'm so high on him. There's very few in the first round I'd take over him. Just watch 'Bama games - he's all round the ball both in the run and passing games.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

To me the best player for the Patriots to take between 20-27 is Hightower. So, I'd trade up as many as 5-7 spots to get him with 27&31 and getting picks in the 3 trough 6 rounds.

Now I know that some draft rankings have Hightower ranked lower, but come draft day, my bet is that a team above #27 will be targeting him. We should jump that team and don't think that the Patriots don't know who the team is that they will have to jump.

That is, if there is a team who is willing to do that and has the later round picks.

Assuming Brockers, Cox and Still are off the board, and BB can not find a sucker to trade down with (just stay away from Green Bay so we do not get our pockets picked anymore), then I have no problem with overdrafting Hightower at #27 because:

a.) He is faster than Spikes. Interesting to note, Cox at 300 pounds is faster than Spikes
b.) Hightower brings the "wood". Don't get me worng , so does Spikes, but it takes Spikes an hour longer to get there.
c.) Hightower is the best blitzing LBer in this draft, and I could see him moving to DE opposite Scott on passing downs, since Hightower can also set a mean edge on running plays or anchor on straight ahead runs. A three down multi-positional LBer is a rare find.
d.) On pasing plays Hightower is exceptional at tracking and blowing up RB's on passing plays out of the backfield.

 

[rookBoston]

This years first round is fairly weak and BB's actions in last years weak draft suggests he'll do just that...

I TOTALLY disagree that the first round is weak. This is one of the best we've had in years. Where is that coming from? What makes you think the class is weak?

The 2007 draft is the one that sticks in my mind as being incredibly weak. That year, Ted Ginn went at 9 and Adam Carricker went 13. Jarvis Moss went 16 and Brady Quinn went 22. Buster Davis went to the Chargers at 30. There was a knot of safeties that went in the teens and early 20s: Reggie Nelson, Michael Griffin and Brandon Meriweather. At #12, the Bills drafted Marshawn Lynch, who had ravaged his knees and it wasn't sure if he'd ever play football again. And #1 overall was Jamarcus Russell, the poster child for busts.

In this draft class, Ted Ginn would rank somewhere between Kendall Wright and Alshon Jeffery, which would put him at the top of the 2nd round. Jarvis Moss would be slotted somewhere with Zach Brown and Andre Branch, in the early 30s.

This year, we talk about "reaching" for Hightower at #27. But if he had come out in 2007, he would have gone after Patrick Willis (#11) and before Lawrence Timmons (#15).

The star power of the 2012 draft runs out in the early teens. But then you have a cohort of great players that lasts well into the 40s. In almost any mock that I see, there are 3 or 4 players available at #40 that would be starters for us on Week One. That is very rare.

Even at the top of the draft... in most years RGIII would be the slam dunk consensus #1 pick. In past drafts the top of the draft has been so weak that Houston was forced to choose between Mario Williams and Reggie Bush for honors. Mario would go #5 or #6 if he came out this year. Reggie Bush would be drafted AFTER Trent Richardson, who looks like he could drop into the teens!!! And the year Alex Smith came out, 2005, it was as if he went #1 overall because there just was no one else even worth the conversation. This year, Smith would be down there in the teens, with Tannehill.

Not a weak draft. NOT a weak draft. This is an outstanding class. I've been following the draft closely for over a decade and this is one of the very best I can remember.

 

[manxman2601]

I TOTALLY disagree that the first round is weak. This is one of the best we've had in years. Where is that coming from? What makes you think the class is weak?

The 2007 draft is the one that sticks in my mind as being incredibly weak. That year, Ted Ginn went at 9 and Adam Carricker went 13. Jarvis Moss went 16 and Brady Quinn went 22. Buster Davis went to the Chargers at 30. There was a knot of safeties that went in the teens and early 20s: Reggie Nelson, Michael Griffin and Brandon Meriweather. At #12, the Bills drafted Marshawn Lynch, who had ravaged his knees and it wasn't sure if he'd ever play football again. And #1 overall was Jamarcus Russell, the poster child for busts.

In this draft class, Ted Ginn would rank somewhere between Kendall Wright and Alshon Jeffery, which would put him at the top of the 2nd round. Jarvis Moss would be slotted somewhere with Zach Brown and Andre Branch, in the early 30s.

This year, we talk about "reaching" for Hightower at #27. But if he had come out in 2007, he would have gone after Patrick Willis (#11) and before Lawrence Timmons (#15).

The star power of the 2012 draft runs out in the early teens. But then you have a cohort of great players that lasts well into the 40s. In almost any mock that I see, there are 3 or 4 players available at #40 that would be starters for us on Week One. That is very rare.

Even at the top of the draft... in most years RGIII would be the slam dunk consensus #1 pick. In past drafts the top of the draft has been so weak that Houston was forced to choose between Mario Williams and Reggie Bush for honors. Mario would go #5 or #6 if he came out this year. Reggie Bush would be drafted AFTER Trent Richardson, who looks like he could drop into the teens!!! And the year Alex Smith came out, 2005, it was as if he went #1 overall because there just was no one else even worth the conversation. This year, Smith would be down there in the teens, with Tannehill.

Not a weak draft. NOT a weak draft. This is an outstanding class. I've been following the draft closely for over a decade and this is one of the very best I can remember.

I agree this draft is deep, very deep and at the top 5 it's strong but after that the first round doesn't have a lot of impact players and where it does there's some serious question marks. Upshaw and Ingram - DE/OLB tweeners with very short arms. Coples - big red flags over effort. Poe and Brockers - very little experience. Jenkins and Floyd - character red flags. The list goes on. When I'm writing a mock, I'm finding it hard to justify almost any trade ups. In part that's because the first round is deep and varied by position, but it's also because I don't see any big impact players after the top 5 that would justify a trade up for almost any team.

Where's the dominant outside pass rusher? The Number one receiver? The outstanding 3-4 DE? It's a great draft for depth but I don't think there's many game changers here outside the top 5.

 

[cstjohn17]

It doesn't bother me, players in the draft are really just investments. By gaining more picks they reduce their losses and can get a better return.

As far as players once you get past the top 15 there is not much difference in the players until the 50-60 range.

Using the National Football Post grading scale, the 15th ranked player is 7.0 and the 53rd player is a 6.8. You can argue the rankings but every year it is about the same story.

7.0 Becomes a starter during his rookie year… Becomes a solid NFL player who has no real weakness… Can’t be exploited or consistently taken out of games.

Dirty Starter Caliber / Specialty Player

6.9 Contributes first year and starts second year… Must be able to get on the field and make a contribution as a rookie… Expected to start his second year in the league.

6.8 Contributes first year, but may take time to become a starter… Has the ability to become a starter and will be expected to assume a starting role.

 

[ay-yo]

I'd trade up for Cox or Uphsaw by packaging 27 and our 3rd rounder for a 19-21 pick. You could also do 27 + 63 for 19-21 and a 3rd.