Trading 2025 1st , what can we get?

[Brotherblues]

Vegas has us as the 2nd worst odds after Carolina to win it all next season. To even remotely contemplate trading away the ensuing pick is mind boggling.

 

[resdubwhite]

We would get fired is the correct answer. Going to be 2 off-season correction at least

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Most likely it’s whoever’s left of maye/Daniels at 3. Good with either.

If we trade down say with NYG at 6 my target is Penix Jr round 2. We get 6, 39, 47 in return. Thought hard about McCarthy here but decided on the route below.

6. Rome Odunze: Already was a fan before the combine but the shots of him staying on the field until he hit his desired 3 cone time made me an even bigger fan. If this is the work ethic we can expect sign me up.

34. Penix Jr: Pair him up with Rome.

39. Ladd McConkey/Xavier Legette: Add either of these two with Rome and Pop and suddenly we have something cooking with this wr group.

47. JT Sanders: start to rebuild our TE group.

68. Patrick Paul: Takes over for Tyron Smith in 2025.

That proposed trade with the Giants isn't a balanced trade, they wouldn't give up both of their 2nds to move from 6 to 3. We could probably get their high 2nd rounder (39) and their 4th (108), so we wouldn't have #47.

The bigger issue is I doubt Penix will still be around at 34, not even close. Of the top 20 picks, there are 9 QB-needy teams if you assume we pick a non-QB with our 1st selection and try to get a QB with our second selection: Bears, Commanders, Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers. There's 2 quality vets in Fields and Cousins that will land on 2 of those teams, but that still leaves 7 teams picking ahead of us at 34 (assume Mayfield stays in Tampa, and I'm not counting Russell Wilson, he's not a top QB anymore).

There's only 6 top-tier QB's in this draft: Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix, Penix. We'd have to jump up ahead of the Seahawks and Steelers, to 15 or 14. To do that from 34, we'd have to throw in the 2nd rounder that the Giants would be giving us. So the net of all that is we pick at 6-15-68 instead of 3-34-68, and end up with Odunze/Penix instead Maye/McConkey. We'd score an extra 4th rounder, but trading with the Giants is not a move I'd make.

I've said it before, but I think the best move is try to trade down to 4 with Arizona, and the comp for us would be moving up from 34 to their 27th, and also get one of their three 3rd rounders.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I would not be surprised if we are picking in the top 10 next year, so trading the pick would not be a wise decision

 

[cupofjoe1962]

How would the Pats know the actual value of that pick?

What if the Pats win 4 games in 2024 only this time they have the 1st pick in the 2025 draft.

This team is not a few moves away from contending for a Super Bowl. That is the only goal. Bologna Bob wants the playoffs and making the playoffs only to lose early is what the Bengals did for years.

Bologna Bob ? “Priceless “

 

[Ivan]

That proposed trade with the Giants isn't a balanced trade, they wouldn't give up both of their 2nds to move from 6 to 3. We could probably get their high 2nd rounder (39) and their 4th (108), so we wouldn't have #47.

The bigger issue is I doubt Penix will still be around at 34, not even close. Of the top 20 picks, there are 9 QB-needy teams if you assume we pick a non-QB with our 1st selection and try to get a QB with our second selection: Bears, Commanders, Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers. There's 2 quality vets in Fields and Cousins that will land on 2 of those teams, but that still leaves 7 teams picking ahead of us at 34 (assume Mayfield stays in Tampa, and I'm not counting Russell Wilson, he's not a top QB anymore).

There's only 6 top-tier QB's in this draft: Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix, Penix. We'd have to jump up ahead of the Seahawks and Steelers, to 15 or 14. To do that from 34, we'd have to throw in the 2nd rounder that the Giants would be giving us. So the net of all that is we pick at 6-15-68 instead of 3-34-68, and end up with Odunze/Penix instead May/McConkey. We'd score an extra 4th rounder, but trading with the Giants is not a move I'd make.

I've said it before, but I think the best move is try to trade down to 4 with Arizona, and the comp for us would be moving up from 34 to their 27th, and also get one of their three 3rd rounders.

You only trade with Arizona if they aren’t going to trade out of it.

 

[Ivan]

Trading back and taking Nix or Penixian interesting approach I hadn’t thought of. Use a high pick to draft the clipboard holder this year, then give up 3 first rounders to move up for the starter in a year to 2. Then you have your back up and starter for only four first round picks.

 

[PatsFan2]

That proposed trade with the Giants isn't a balanced trade, they wouldn't give up both of their 2nds to move from 6 to 3. We could probably get their high 2nd rounder (39) and their 4th (108), so we wouldn't have #47.

The bigger issue is I doubt Penix will still be around at 34, not even close. Of the top 20 picks, there are 9 QB-needy teams if you assume we pick a non-QB with our 1st selection and try to get a QB with our second selection: Bears, Commanders, Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers. There's 2 quality vets in Fields and Cousins that will land on 2 of those teams, but that still leaves 7 teams picking ahead of us at 34 (assume Mayfield stays in Tampa, and I'm not counting Russell Wilson, he's not a top QB anymore).

There's only 6 top-tier QB's in this draft: Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix, Penix. We'd have to jump up ahead of the Seahawks and Steelers, to 15 or 14. To do that from 34, we'd have to throw in the 2nd rounder that the Giants would be giving us. So the net of all that is we pick at 6-15-68 instead of 3-34-68, and end up with Odunze/Penix instead May/McConkey. We'd score an extra 4th rounder, but trading with the Giants is not a move I'd make.

I've said it before, but I think the best move is try to trade down to 4 with Arizona, and the comp for us would be moving up from 34 to their 27th, and also get one of their three 3rd rounders.

Great post makes too much sense I say take the young QB @ 3 and move #34 for possibly a extra Second and Third. This Draft is so deep I want a couple of shots in the Second and Third rounds.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Trading back this year just means they will have to give up 3 first rounders a year or two from now to move up for the franchise QB they passed on this year. Better to draft the QB this year, let them sit a year while they upgrade the offense this offseason and next, and start them with a much better team in 25’. If they way to get the QB we are looking at a much higher cost in picks, as well as a delay in them producing for them. I would rather see them take the QB now and have those first rounders to get top talent to help them in the coming years, when they should be in contention, and will need them to beat the best teams.

That is certainly one approach, but it is hard to pick the right path. That is what makes these discussions so interesting and fun.

Here is my ideal scenario: Daniels is gone at 2 so trade back with some crappy team (such as a team with a meddling owner). Get their 20245 first plus a bunch of picks this year. Use those picks to beef of the line and get some impact WRs. Then next year, the crappy team's first will be a top 5 and use that to get your franchise QB. He will then come into a good situation.

I don't want to draft a franchise QB this year and ruin him if there is no supporting players like BB did to Jones. This is what the Jets have done...

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

How would the Pats know the actual value of that pick?

What if the Pats win 4 games in 2024 only this time they have the 1st pick in the 2025 draft.

This team is not a few moves away from contending for a Super Bowl. That is the only goal. Bologna Bob wants the playoffs and making the playoffs only to lose early is what the Bengals did for years.

Trading it always gets lesser value

 

[varjao]

Trading our 2025 1st, which will likely be in the 1-15 range, for a 2nd this year seems very very dumb.

That would be very very dumb indeed. The proposed scenario is getting another 1st.

 

[hornetfb85]

That would be very very dumb indeed. The proposed scenario is getting another 1st.

I understand, more reacting to people saying the value of next years 1st rounder having a 2nd round value. I’ve heard that multiple times and it just doesn’t make sense to me.

But towards your scenario, still a no for me because of the good chance we’re picking high again next year.

 

[Ivan]

That is certainly one approach, but it is hard to pick the right path. That is what makes these discussions so interesting and fun.

Here is my ideal scenario: Daniels is gone at 2 so trade back with some crappy team (such as a team with a meddling owner). Get their 20245 first plus a bunch of picks this year. Use those picks to beef of the line and get some impact WRs. Then next year, the crappy team's first will be a top 5 and use that to get your franchise QB. He will then come into a good situation.

I don't want to draft a franchise QB this year and ruin him if there is no supporting players like BB did to Jones. This is what the Jets have done...

I would draft the franchise QB this year, let them sit a year while they build up the offense, and play him in 2025. Next years QB class is supposed to suck, and there might only be one QB worth taking.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

That proposed trade with the Giants isn't a balanced trade, they wouldn't give up both of their 2nds to move from 6 to 3. We could probably get their high 2nd rounder (39) and their 4th (108), so we wouldn't have #47.

The bigger issue is I doubt Penix will still be around at 34, not even close. Of the top 20 picks, there are 9 QB-needy teams if you assume we pick a non-QB with our 1st selection and try to get a QB with our second selection: Bears, Commanders, Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks, Steelers. There's 2 quality vets in Fields and Cousins that will land on 2 of those teams, but that still leaves 7 teams picking ahead of us at 34 (assume Mayfield stays in Tampa, and I'm not counting Russell Wilson, he's not a top QB anymore).

There's only 6 top-tier QB's in this draft: Williams, Daniels, Maye, McCarthy, Nix, Penix. We'd have to jump up ahead of the Seahawks and Steelers, to 15 or 14. To do that from 34, we'd have to throw in the 2nd rounder that the Giants would be giving us. So the net of all that is we pick at 6-15-68 instead of 3-34-68, and end up with Odunze/Penix instead Maye/McConkey. We'd score an extra 4th rounder, but trading with the Giants is not a move I'd make.

I've said it before, but I think the best move is try to trade down to 4 with Arizona, and the comp for us would be moving up from 34 to their 27th, and also get one of their three 3rd rounders.

The jets moved up with the colts a few years back from 6 to 3 and in addition to 6 gave up their 2 2nd rounds and another 2 in 2019. It’s not unreasonable for them to pony up this kind of package if the player they like is there at 3 but don’t believe he makes it to 6.

Regarding Penix you could very well be right that he’s long go by 34. I was going off of recent mocks that have had him in that general area.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The jets moved up with the colts a few years back from 6 to 3 and in addition to 6 gave up their 2 2nd rounds and another 2 in 2019. It’s not unreasonable for them to pony up this kind of package if the player they like is there at 3 but don’t believe he makes it to 6.

Regarding Penix you could very well be right that he’s long go by 34. I was going off of recent mocks that have had him in that general area.

True, it's supply and demand and there's not much supply, so the Giants might do it. It's way out of balance on the point charts. Penix is rising fast, as he should.

 

[chief1]

Most likely it’s whoever’s left of maye/Daniels at 3. Good with either.

If we trade down say with NYG at 6 my target is Penix Jr round 2. We get 6, 39, 47 in return. Thought hard about McCarthy here but decided on the route below.

6. Rome Odunze: Already was a fan before the combine but the shots of him staying on the field until he hit his desired 3 cone time made me an even bigger fan. If this is the work ethic we can expect sign me up.

34. Penix Jr: Pair him up with Rome.

39. Ladd McConkey/Xavier Legette: Add either of these two with Rome and Pop and suddenly we have something cooking with this wr group.

47. JT Sanders: start to rebuild our TE group.

68. Patrick Paul: Takes over for Tyron Smith in 2025.

love this draft

 

[varjao]

I would draft the franchise QB this year, let them sit a year while they build up the offense, and play him in 2025. Next years QB class is supposed to suck, and there might only be one QB worth taking.

Yeah this is the year to draft a QB.

Next season even if the roster is exactly the same as 2023 they probably win more games, easier schedule, coaching change, they had to suck so much last season to get only 3 wins.

The roster will be much improved, I'm surprised with the amount of people in this thread who thinks the Pats will suck again next season. My view is different.

 

[The Gr8est]

True, it's supply and demand and there's not much supply, so the Giants might do it. It's way out of balance on the point charts. Penix is rising fast, as he should.

If the Giants truly covet MCCarthy, they will be willing to give up a lot.

 

[mgteich]

What if they think the QB left at 3 blows? Take him anyways? Just because he’s a qb? It’s not as black and white as you make it

There are those who want a top 10 QB no matter what, which doesn't really mean that they would draft a QB at 3 that they didn't want, even if all the experts preferred that player.

The case being discussed is Daniels going at 2 and we don't want Maye. OK, I don't want Maye. That leaves lots of other options which including drafting a QB not named Maye at 3, 4, or 5. Some hope to trade to draft a QB at the middle or end of the first round. I suspect that they will be sadly disappointed if we waited.

I HAVE been convinced that Daniels has a higher ceiling than Maye, McCarthy or Nix. I don't expect us to pass on Daniels. I certainly could see the first 5 picks including 4 quarterbacks and Harrison. If not in the first five, then the Giants would race to the stage with the name of a QB at 6. Some even think Penix with be drafted in the top 15. However, I do expect the Giants to be able to trade up.

 

[mgteich]

I would draft the franchise QB this year, let them sit a year while they build up the offense, and play him in 2025. Next years QB class is supposed to suck, and there might only be one QB worth taking.

Yup, one 2025 QB stud and 4 or 5 teams trying to trade 3 firsts to get him. This is the year to get a QB, any of the six really. And given our situation, there really shouldn't be much pressure to start him until very late this year, or more likely, next year.