Trade up now or wait

[BTTA]

We have 10 picks in the draft and very few holes on the team.

Not many holes for 2021. But many, many holes for 2022, and typically that's when a draft starts to make significant impact (the following year).

It depends on how they are thinking about things.

 

[moosekill]

Not many holes for 2021. But many, many holes for 2022, and typically that's when a draft starts to make significant impact (the following year).

It depends on how they are thinking about things.

No it doesn't. The Patriots can only keep 53 players on their roster. The patriots certainly take into account that a draft pick may beat out an established player, but the odds of that happening go down dramatically in the later rounds of the draft. And yes injuries do happen, but it still ends up being the same, the drafted player has to be able to beat out an established player. On a team with basically a full and I would add, mostly playoff caliber roster, there just aren't many spots for rookies, and there is no way to hide those players for next year. I think the foxborough flu stuff isn't really a thing. So that leaves the Patriots with trying to get a few really good players, rather than lots of mediocre ones, or trading draft picks into 2022, when they may well need more players.

 

[Kontradiction]

Or building your team by getting better value for your picks.

I’ve said that I don’t think Bill would give up that kind of loot to move into the top 5. But we need a QB. Unless you’re building an all-time great defense or you have an otherwise mediocre QB that’s going to go on a hot streak in the postseason, that’s always going to be a need if you want to win a Lombardi. The majority of starting QBs in the league last season were first round picks. If the right prospect drops, they need to think long and hard about moving up.

 

[goheels22002]

No it doesn't. The Patriots can only keep 53 players on their roster. The patriots certainly take into account that a draft pick may beat out an established player, but the odds of that happening go down dramatically in the later rounds of the draft. And yes injuries do happen, but it still ends up being the same, the drafted player has to be able to beat out an established player. On a team with basically a full and I would add, mostly playoff caliber roster, there just aren't many spots for rookies, and there is no way to hide those players for next year. I think the foxborough flu stuff isn't really a thing. So that leaves the Patriots with trying to get a few really good players, rather than lots of mediocre ones, or trading draft picks into 2022, when they may well need more players.

Interesting point at the end about 2022 after the splurge on free agents in 2021. Trading down and out with a couple of the 2021 picks to stockpile for 2022 is a good idea, particularly for value picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in 2022.

Piling up future picks is also a smart trade strategy.

This thread is dominated by the QB discussion which makes sense, but I think BB holds tight, sees who is there at 15, 46 and 96. If the QB he wants is not on the board, my guess is that we may see a couple of free agents cut by teams after they secure their "future franchise QB" in the draft. All these guys like Minshew, Darnold, Garoppolo, Lock, Jones, Watson will be attainable with the right offer. Holding good picks for 2022 increases the possibility of bringing in one of those guys after the draft

 

[Ollie]

Interesting point at the end about 2022 after the splurge on free agents in 2020. Trading down and out with a couple of the 2021 picks to stockpile for 2022 is a good idea, particularly for value picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds in 2022.

Piling up future picks is also a smart trade strategy.

This thread is dominated by the QB discussion which makes sense, but I think BB holds tight, sees who is there at 15, 46 and 96. If the QB he wants is not on the board, my guess is that we may see a couple of free agents cut by teams after they secure their "future franchise QB" in the draft. All these guys like Minshew, Darnold, Garoppolo, Lock, Jones, Watson will be attainable with the right offer. Holding good picks for 2022 increases the possibility of bringing in one of those guys after the draft

Yeah it's a fluid situation that could look very different in a month. Fingers crossed

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

No it doesn't. The Patriots can only keep 53 players on their roster. The patriots certainly take into account that a draft pick may beat out an established player, but the odds of that happening go down dramatically in the later rounds of the draft. And yes injuries do happen, but it still ends up being the same, the drafted player has to be able to beat out an established player. On a team with basically a full and I would add, mostly playoff caliber roster, there just aren't many spots for rookies, and there is no way to hide those players for next year. I think the foxborough flu stuff isn't really a thing. So that leaves the Patriots with trying to get a few really good players, rather than lots of mediocre ones, or trading draft picks into 2022, when they may well need more players.

rounds 5, 6 and 7 are basically valueless picks in terms of trading up for "quality" picks and players.

 

[BTTA]

No it doesn't. The Patriots can only keep 53 players on their roster. The patriots certainly take into account that a draft pick may beat out an established player, but the odds of that happening go down dramatically in the later rounds of the draft. And yes injuries do happen, but it still ends up being the same, the drafted player has to be able to beat out an established player. On a team with basically a full and I would add, mostly playoff caliber roster, there just aren't many spots for rookies, and there is no way to hide those players for next year. I think the foxborough flu stuff isn't really a thing. So that leaves the Patriots with trying to get a few really good players, rather than lots of mediocre ones, or trading draft picks into 2022, when they may well need more players.

There are many gaping holes in the 2022 roster. Of course that will be a factor in how they think about the draft this year.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

The price to move up into the top 5 this year has become completely cost prohibitive and far far too risky.
Unless you were trading up for Lawrence, Wilson or Fields I do not see it being worth it to trade multiple future first round picks.


Look what happened to the Texans. I bet they did not consider the possibility that the 2021 first rounder they were trading to the Dolphins for Tunsil would be the #3 pick in a very strong QB draft. That trade has set the Texans back years, all because they greatly overvalued a single player. That trade probbaly in part cost O'Brien his job.

 

[BTTA]

I’ve said that I don’t think Bill would give up that kind of loot to move into the top 5. But we need a QB. Unless you’re building an all-time great defense or you have an otherwise mediocre QB that’s going to go on a hot streak in the postseason, that’s always going to be a need if you want to win a Lombardi. The majority of starting QBs in the league last season were first round picks. If the right prospect drops, they need to think long and hard about moving up.

I wouldn't rule it out (paying a lot to move up for a QB), just because he's not that predictable, and certainly not concerned about what others' think (which seems to be all too common among NFL execs).

I would be more skeptical of the Pats' QB evaluations resembling the popular, media driven evals that have created an Absolute Truth that that are five guys who have a good chance to be SB caliber QB's in this draft. I suspect their QB board is very different. So they might wait to grab one later, someone they have rated more highly. Or they may grab him at 15 and shock us all.

 

[moosekill]

There are many gaping holes in the 2022 roster. Of course that will be a factor in how they think about the draft this year.

Perhaps you can explain how. We can keep 53 players. The goal is to put the best team on the field. That is if you want to win.

 

[venecol]

If Waddle and Jones are gone at 15, I think that BB trades down. It is almost certain that Mac Jones will go earlier than 15, probably at 3 to SF. If Jones somehow slips to 8 or 9, BB is not going to use next year's first to move up; it is just not going to happen, and I think that is the right decision. I really don't want to have the Patriots mortgage their future for an unproven player.

Unless Jones turns into the next Tom Brady, SF will be hurting for years to come...and even if he does, the team will have a bleak draft future. No thanks.

I think Mac Jones drops to end of 1st or maybe even 2nd round. Imagine having a 2nd pro day, an occasion to showcase your attributes under "perfect" conditions: no pass rush, no other players, wide open field, no CB pressure, no progression reads, no time or down pressure, routes that you practiced over and over again; and under those idyllic conditions you overthrow the receiver.

Shanahan looked like he was seeing Ghosts. He must've been thinking of another SB where this kid overthrows the winning TD. He's thinking "if I pick this kid at #3, that was projected to be a 2nd rounder, and he sh*ts the bed. I'm out."

Kid says the last play where he catches a TD pass on a trick play is used by Navy a lot and since Bill was there it was cool. He then immediately says it was in honor of his dead HS coach who liked to run those plays. Mac seemed a little desperate, not natural, rehearsed, forced, lacked confidence.

I'm also out on Jones but if Bill wants him, he'll be there at 15. I hope he picks Paye or Parsons, or Surtain instead.

 

[goheels22002]

The price to move up into the top 5 this year has become completely cost prohibitive and far far too risky.
Unless you were trading up for Lawrence, Wilson or Fields I do not see it being worth it to trade multiple future first round picks.


Look what happened to the Texans. I bet they did not consider the possibility that the 2021 first rounder they were trading to the Dolphins for Tunsil would be the #3 pick in a very strong QB draft. That trade has set the Texans back years, all because they greatly overvalued a single player. That trade probbaly in part cost O'Brien his job.

The Texans are becoming the new Browns. It does not seem like any move they make is the right one. When the Arizona Cardinals are the preferred escape hatch for your iconic free agents, you have a problem. Deshaun Watson is making Bob Kraft's brush with the law over his predilection for massages look like a parking ticket. Bum Phillips must be rolling over in his grave.

 

[Ring 6]

Perhaps you can explain how. We can keep 53 players. The goal is to put the best team on the field. That is if you want to win.

Well if we don’t fix the QB position we are playing for 22,23 and beyond. So if we are going to start 21 with the QBs we have is be in favor of trading all of our picks into 22 and hope we’ve come to our sense by then.

 

[BTTA]

Perhaps you can explain how. We can keep 53 players. The goal is to put the best team on the field this year and in the coming years. That is if you want to be a contender year-after-year.

 

[Tony2046]

I’ve said that I don’t think Bill would give up that kind of loot to move into the top 5. But we need a QB. Unless you’re building an all-time great defense or you have an otherwise mediocre QB that’s going to go on a hot streak in the postseason, that’s always going to be a need if you want to win a Lombardi. The majority of starting QBs in the league last season were first round picks. If the right prospect drops, they need to think long and hard about moving up.

I agree that we need a top quality QB but it seems like we would be trying to buy a house in the 2008 housing market this season. This seems like the year to get a higher valued position player while all the desperate teams make a run at five Qbs.

Draft two later round QB prospects. We need to improve on QB2 as well.

Trade into next year's draft and give yourself some additional fire power to move up and get a QB.

Anyway three first round picks to move up to get the fourth best or drafted QB makes little sense to me and more like a desperation move.

If three first round picks gave us the pick of the litter then I'd be all for it.

 

[Lansdowne]

rounds 5, 6 and 7 are basically valueless picks in terms of trading up for "quality" picks and players.

Yeah it’s more likely that picks in those rounds get flipped for a one-round upgrade in the following year’s draft (i.e., a team willing to give up their 4th rounder next year to land a player that is falling who they really like in this year’s 5th round).

 

[moosekill]

It doesn't work that way. I understand you love the draft, but at most you are going to keep 6 or maybe 7 rookies this season. You have 10 draft picks plus free agent rookies. 15 or 16 players, that means 10 of those picks are completely wasted. It makes infinitely more sense to trade some of those wasted picks to move up and get better players earlier in the draft. Like a qb for instance. Or if you really are going to have lots of holes next year, move those picks into next years draft.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

Yeah it’s more likely that picks in those rounds get flipped for a one-round upgrade in the following year’s draft (i.e., a team willing to give up their 4th rounder next year to land a player that is falling who they really like in this year’s 5th round).

Imo these will be our “comp” picks we usually acquire each year.

 

[Sicilian]

It doesn't work that way. I understand you love the draft, but at most you are going to keep 6 or maybe 7 rookies this season. You have 10 draft picks plus free agent rookies. 15 or 16 players, that means 10 of those picks are completely wasted. It makes infinitely more sense to trade some of those wasted picks to move up and get better players earlier in the draft. Like a qb for instance. Or if you really are going to have lots of holes next year, move those picks into next years draft.

Except you still have to "guess" right on those players. Saying that picking 16 players and 10 being wasted, doesn't mean that if you only picked 6 players that suddenly all of them are hits. You pick more players because you have better odds of finding 5+ contributors if you're taking 10+ players. The ones that don't make it aren't "wasted", they're part of the process of narrowing down to the roster you like. Especially this year, where info on these kids is less available than it has been in years past, picking players might be even more of a crapshoot after the top 15 or so. So unless you're going to trade multiple times into the top half of the draft, you need to overcome the uncertainty with volume, OR trade out of some picks out of this year and stockpile for next.

 

[moosekill]

The key is to maximize the certainty. The higher the draft pick the more likely they find success. If you have few needs, which they do this year it makes more sense to maximize the certainty, because some players that might ordinarily make the team won't this year because there isn't the need.