Tom Brady: an honest take

[venecol]

I just don’t see rapid drop-off, and the other variables present make evaluation nearly impossible.

We’ve seen Brady go through rough stretches in the past but never chalked it up to age because he was younger at the time.

His poor play this season hasn’t been out of character or different from his poor play in previous seasons.

Struggles with deep balls and timing with new/unfamiliar receivers. Seen that past and present.

Various nicks and dings slowing him down and affecting accuracy at times. Seen that past and present.

Unfamiliar center/line calls leading to a lack of confidence in his protection. Seen that past and present.

And despite all that, he’s still moving well in the pocket and appears to be throwing the ball was sufficient and largely unchanged velocity when compared to the past few seasons. Is his arm as strong as ‘07? Of course not. But is it strong enough to play at a high level, similar to ‘16-‘18? I sure think so.

And Brady’s physical attributes have never been his strength, or what he had success because of; his short-ball accuracy, decision making, incredible intellect/preparation, understanding of the game, and leadership are his winning traits. None of that is going away overnight.

The only way I see this season’s struggles carrying over into a hypothetical future season is if that elbow injury is chronic. But based on Tom’s remarks (still intends to play next season) I doubt it’s a particularly serious, long-term issue.

Again, considering all the variables it’s virtually impossible to make a legitimate evaluation but I feel pretty good about Brady going into next season and I suspect Belichick does too. I expect Brady’ll be back and they’ll retool. Heck, even Belichick has publicly acknowledged that Brady has been limited in practice this season, so he’s surely aware of how his injuries could be affecting his performance.

I strongly believe Brady gives you a better chance of winning than Stidham does for the next 1-2 seasons, and probably a better chance of winning than 90%-95% of NFL QBs.

Agree, focusing on declining stats doesn't tell the entire story. Extrapolating from 42 to 43 is akin to predicting a cliff. There is just no indication from watching him that he has physically declined imo. His accuracy seems to have dropped but not all of it can be attributed to his play alone. There have been many drops, hurries, etc. He still has a tight spiral, velocity, and can pass relatively deep (enough for how Pats play). He's moving well in the pocket. The one thing you can't buy or teach (w/o taking many years) is his experience.

If the team can succesfully balance the offense with a 50/50 run/pass mix, Brady can be very succesful. If it can't then he's not the guy.

SF has 498/478 run/pass: (51/49)
NE has 447/620 run/pass: (42/58)

That's half the problem and that's not on Tom.

 

[Bruins29]

Mt Rushmore is 4 athletes. So tell me guys who are the 4?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Mt Rushmore is 4 athletes. So tell me guys who are the 4?

Is there really a debate?

 

[Bruins29]

Is there really a debate?

Apparently there is. 2 posters disagreed with my comment that Bird should not be on there. So I am waiting for their 4 athletes....

 

[RobertWeathers]

Apparently there is. 2 posters disagreed with my comment that Bird should not be on there. So I am waiting for their 4 athletes....

They are forgetting about Russell. Maybe they don't know who he is?

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Perhaps Brady didn't want to get traded hence the removal of the franchise tag

 

[skinnydog]

I disagree here. I think his elbow injury is much worse than what he lets anyone know and if he was healthy the entire offense would look better. Now what that means for his contract or next year I have no idea but I certainly disagree that he is done unless this is a chronic thing.

Correct, he is not done unless he want to be done. And he will look better next year with a better O-Line and better weapons. If he does not get those, he will look the same.

 

[luuked]

Correct, he is not done unless he want to be done. And he will look better next year with a better O-Line and better weapons. If he does not get those, he will look the same.

If he was healthy this offense would already be good enough. Don't need to sneak in any digs at the OL and WR here. A healthy QB would be enough.

 

[Cunk]

I have it off and on in both elbows. It was really bad a year ago. Could barely lift a dinner plate

Same with me. I've had it in both elbows as well. It sucks because you need to rest the tendons for them to heal so a lot of exercises are out. I've pretty much given up any sort of body weight exercises because that's how I've developed golfer's elbow. It's not worth it. At this point I'd rather be able to pick up a dinner plate or shake someone's hand without pain than to have strong arms.

 

[Cunk]

It’s Tennis Elbow. Nothing outside of rest heals that. I got it when I was 15 years old playing volleyball in gym class. Overextended my left arm and it felt like the elbow damn near dislocated. Very painful and the elbow still clicks to this day when I extend that arm. I think it took well over a month to feel somewhat right and that was when I was 15. For Brady, that’s obviously going to take more time.

It took me, in my late 40's, early 50's about 6 months to recover both times I had tennis elbow. I finally felt good enough to start working out again after the first episode. I friggin' injured the other elbow the very first time back exercising. And it was an extremely light exercise. Getting old sucks.

 

[venecol]

They are forgetting about Russell. Maybe they don't know who he is?

Don't know who the other 3 are, but Ernie Adams mug definately belongs up there.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Same with me. I've had it in both elbows as well. It sucks because you need to rest the tendons for them to heal so a lot of exercises are out. I've pretty much given up any sort of body weight exercises because that's how I've developed golfer's elbow. It's not worth it. At this point I'd rather be able to pick up a dinner plate or shake someone's hand without pain than to have strong arms.

Agree. When I feel it act up I immediately ice it and put the strap around my forearm to alleviate the pulling on the bone. It's ridiculous.

 

[Antdawg]

Major playoff implications on the line: Jimmy G winning in spectacular fashion on the road against a tough Hawks team. Brady losing at home against the lowly Dolphins. That's where we are right now and it sucks.

 

[Antdawg]

Imagine if we had Jimmy G AND Antonio Brown!! Holy fock, son!

 

[Nunchucks]

Same with me. I've had it in both elbows as well. It sucks because you need to rest the tendons for them to heal so a lot of exercises are out. I've pretty much given up any sort of body weight exercises because that's how I've developed golfer's elbow. It's not worth it. At this point I'd rather be able to pick up a dinner plate or shake someone's hand without pain than to have strong arms.

You should look into physical therapy. I've found that completely resting the elbow doesn't help as much as doing specific exercises.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

NO guarantee that Bill keeps him around for 2020...if we crash and burn in the wildcard round I can see Bill moving on.

Bill screwed this team this season. Not TB. IMO
The lack of talent (because of injuries as well) is just despicable.
I saw a lot of players just plain out giving up on plays.

So many penalties too...

Brady is hurt just like Jules.
Where is the criticism of him?
He gets a pass? (Not that I am blaming him.)

Injuries suck.
Is Gilmore done? He had a horrible game.

Just some perspective. .

 

[Patstastic]

They are forgetting about Russell. Maybe they don't know who he is?

Russell, Ortiz, Orr, and Brady. I choose Ortiz over Williams because of the three rings. The team doesn't win a ring without him.

 

[ensoul]

Even if he does come back he's going to be getting paid upwards of 30 million. Problem with that is if he takes that much money how could the Patriots build around him as they will have limited cap space?

Belichick for many years was great drafting players but the last few years he's been pretty terrible and it caught up to the Patriots. If the plan is to resign Brady for a lot of money then have belichick fill in the holes with whoever he drafts that's not a great plan.

At this point it might be best just to start to rebuild instead of trying to hold this together with spit and tape with a 43 year old quarterback.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Russell, Ortiz, Orr, and Brady. I choose Ortiz over Williams because of the three rings. The team doesn't win a ring without him.

I don't agree w/ Papi over Teddy but I understand the logic.

 

[patsfan13]

Bill screwed this team this season. Not TB. IMO
The lack of talent (because of injuries as well) is just despicable.
I saw a lot of players just plain out giving up on plays.

So many penalties too...

Brady is hurt just like Jules.
Where is the criticism of him?
He gets a pass? (Not that I am blaming him.)

Injuries suck.
Is Gilmore done? He had a horrible game.

Just some perspective. .

Observing that Brady is getting old and is more prone to injury isn't criticism, it is acknowledging a fact.

Pretending that he isn't declining physically is self delusion. Father Time always wins,.