venecol
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Agree, focusing on declining stats doesn't tell the entire story. Extrapolating from 42 to 43 is akin to predicting a cliff. There is just no indication from watching him that he has physically declined imo. His accuracy seems to have dropped but not all of it can be attributed to his play alone. There have been many drops, hurries, etc. He still has a tight spiral, velocity, and can pass relatively deep (enough for how Pats play). He's moving well in the pocket. The one thing you can't buy or teach (w/o taking many years) is his experience.I just don’t see rapid drop-off, and the other variables present make evaluation nearly impossible.
We’ve seen Brady go through rough stretches in the past but never chalked it up to age because he was younger at the time.
His poor play this season hasn’t been out of character or different from his poor play in previous seasons.
Struggles with deep balls and timing with new/unfamiliar receivers. Seen that past and present.
Various nicks and dings slowing him down and affecting accuracy at times. Seen that past and present.
Unfamiliar center/line calls leading to a lack of confidence in his protection. Seen that past and present.
And despite all that, he’s still moving well in the pocket and appears to be throwing the ball was sufficient and largely unchanged velocity when compared to the past few seasons. Is his arm as strong as ‘07? Of course not. But is it strong enough to play at a high level, similar to ‘16-‘18? I sure think so.
And Brady’s physical attributes have never been his strength, or what he had success because of; his short-ball accuracy, decision making, incredible intellect/preparation, understanding of the game, and leadership are his winning traits. None of that is going away overnight.
The only way I see this season’s struggles carrying over into a hypothetical future season is if that elbow injury is chronic. But based on Tom’s remarks (still intends to play next season) I doubt it’s a particularly serious, long-term issue.
Again, considering all the variables it’s virtually impossible to make a legitimate evaluation but I feel pretty good about Brady going into next season and I suspect Belichick does too. I expect Brady’ll be back and they’ll retool. Heck, even Belichick has publicly acknowledged that Brady has been limited in practice this season, so he’s surely aware of how his injuries could be affecting his performance.
I strongly believe Brady gives you a better chance of winning than Stidham does for the next 1-2 seasons, and probably a better chance of winning than 90%-95% of NFL QBs.
If the team can succesfully balance the offense with a 50/50 run/pass mix, Brady can be very succesful. If it can't then he's not the guy.
SF has 498/478 run/pass: (51/49)
NE has 447/620 run/pass: (42/58)
That's half the problem and that's not on Tom.
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