To cut Clayborn or not to cut Clayborn

[RobertWeathers]

I think you keep Clayborn and plug in Rivers for the Flowers slot. I think wise is the key. If he elevates his game he is the Flowers replacement Wise is bigger. Clayborn is $3.9mm in actual cost to stay. Flowers is at least $13.9mm or about $10mm more.
It's a gamble. You have Clayborn, Wise, Rivers and the under rated John Simon plus you know BB will select at least one edge guy.
Like to keep Flowers but his agent will force him ti take the money. He might be $8-9mm here.
His has won in the SB....Unfortunately for us, it's "family time" for him.
Clayborn played very well in the post season. Remember BB prefers pressures and push as much as sacks. Simon was a find, Rivers was well touted and Wise can be better.
This is a weak area for the Pats F.O. They should be extending these guys during the season. Flowers, Brown even to a lesser extent Ryan Allen, Dorsett and Paterson who won't cost much.
DW Toys

Good post however I can't see Rivers projecting into Flowers's role.

Flowers did too much here and it's not fair to expect anything close to that level of contribution from Rivers who barely played.

 

[Dragda]

He got better the longer he was here. I think we have paid more for less production. Keep him unless we hit on multiple draft choices or FA. Until it’s obvious we upgraded the weak side DE, I hope we keep him.

 

[reflexblue]

On the 5.9 next season with 2 mill in dead cap. 3.5 base salary and 400k roster bonus.

If I’m reading this correctly, basically need to decide if he’s worth 3.9 mill or not since the 2 mill is a sunken cost.

Had an okay season but really showed up in the playoffs. I’d like to keep him around if he trims that number to maybe 2 mill. What say you patsfans?

After learning that he lead the team in qb pressures (which BB treasures) i'd be inclined to keep him if possible.

 

[TheFlyingWedge]

Simon was a “quiet” good transaction for the Pats last season. A huge upgrade from the likes of James Harrison and Eric Lee and a big part of the defense playing so well down the stretch. He’s the guy that deserves the money rather than Claiborne.

For a situational player on the downside, it’s a lead pipe lock that he won’t be back without a serious haircut.

 

[Froob]

Simon was a “quiet” good transaction for the Pats last season. A huge upgrade from the likes of James Harrison and Eric Lee and a big part of the defense playing so well down the stretch. He’s the guy that deserves the money rather than Claiborne.

I hope somebody doesn’t get over ambitious watching the playoffs and give Simon a wild contract. I’d really like to keep him.

 

[Deus Irae]

To cut Clayborn or not to cut Clayborn

Who's the replacement?

If there's not a specific replacement, what's the target group?

 

[Steve102]

Simon has a completely different skill set than Claybourn.

A couple of thoughts -

Claybourne is a limited, one trick pony type of player. But what he is good at, he is really good at. His consistent hard rush from the right makes it possible to move the OTHER chess pieces around in a positive way. I liked the fact that he didn't whine or moan about being a healthy scratch for multiple weeks. A lot of vets would have...and then some.

$5.9MM is too much to play for what he brings to the table. $2-3MM is a more realistic number for what he brings to the table. I think its less about the cap savings than bring his cap number closer to his projected production,

I think the best way to do that is an extension with a minimum salary with SOME reasonably attainable incentives to get him to that "realistic number" i.e number of games played, snaps, etc. And then some additional not likely to be achieved incentives more tied to his beyond expected production numbers.

At that point, its really about how badly he wants to stay here. If there is push back, then we probably should let him go.

Good, well thought out post, as usual. Agree with your assesment.

Who's the replacement?

If there's not a specific replacement, what's the target group?

That's the rub, isn't it? I feel confident that Bill has a plan if they move on, but it would be nice to know what it was.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Flowers first and if BB keeps Clayborn, not really swayed either way.

 

[mgteich]

so, you plug us Rivers for Flowers

and count on the unsigned Simon

I think you keep Clayborn and plug in Rivers for the Flowers slot. I think wise is the key. If he elevates his game he is the Flowers replacement Wise is bigger. Clayborn is $3.9mm in actual cost to stay. Flowers is at least $13.9mm or about $10mm more.
It's a gamble. You have Clayborn, Wise, Rivers and the under rated John Simon plus you know BB will select at least one edge guy.
Like to keep Flowers but his agent will force him ti take the money. He might be $8-9mm here.
His has won in the SB....Unfortunately for us, it's "family time" for him.
Clayborn played very well in the post season. Remember BB prefers pressures and push as much as sacks. Simon was a find, Rivers was well touted and Wise can be better.
This is a weak area for the Pats F.O. They should be extending these guys during the season. Flowers, Brown even to a lesser extent Ryan Allen, Dorsett and Paterson who won't cost much.
DW Toys

 

[mgteich]

Who's the replacement?

If there's not a specific replacement, what's the target group?

I suspect that Simon would be the replacement for Claiborne, but I don't see any reason to make a Clayborn decision any time soon.

 

[Zuma]

Clayborn was very active in "some games" with QB hits and pressures. He was inactive for several games. I'd like him back but not sure at 5.9 mil. However that's not such a big hit if Flowers doesn't re-sign or we don't sign someone else equivalent in pay at DE.

Rivers probably will never be a Flowers replacement in terms of production...nor will Clayborn. Wise is a more well rounded player with his skill set then either of those 2.

I prefer to keep Clayborn if ...

- Flowers does not re-sign
- Simon is a Patriot
- BB believes Rivers will make a big 2nd year jump in year 3
- DE drafted in 1st 3 rounds

 

[Patriot Missile]

 

[Simpelton]

You guys do realize that any healthy roster carries depth players that are the same or worse compared to Clayborn.

It's easy to pine for the green grass of the other hill. Also perilous.

 

[Deus Irae]

You guys do realize that any healthy roster carries depth players that are the same or worse compared to Clayborn.

It's easy to pine for the green grass of the other hill. Also perilous.

Last year's overpay has led to this year's outsized cap hit. It's not surprising that people are split on a FA player who didn't produce as they'd hoped, and who's going to count more on the cap than they feel his play has earned.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Last year's overpay has led to this year's outsized cap hit. It's not surprising that people are split on a FA player who didn't produce as they'd hoped, and who's going to count more on the cap than they feel his play has earned.

I think that's pretty fair. Pre-draft, and prior to free agency, I don't know if we have an in house replacement yet, so I'm inclined to overpay a bit in order to maintain status quo rather than risk a step back in personnel. I'm also more bullish on his second year with the team than you appear to be, although I think you're justified in taking that stance. The DC change may minimize the value of continuity with the Patriots, but I'm hopeful he can carry some momentum into next year. I thought he improved his rush discipline a bit by the of the year, and I appreciate his good attitude toward benching as well as his effort on the field. Even if he didn't post a lot of production, he was a physical presence on the edge, and he did have some positive moments in the playoffs.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think that's pretty fair. Pre-draft, and prior to free agency, I don't know if we have an in house replacement yet, so I'm inclined to overpay a bit in order to maintain status quo rather than risk a step back in personnel. I'm also more bullish on his second year with the team than you appear to be, although I think you're justified in taking that stance. The DC change may minimize the value of continuity with the Patriots, but I'm hopeful he can carry some momentum into next year. I thought he improved his rush discipline a bit by the of the year, and I appreciate his good attitude toward benching as well as his effort on the field. Even if he didn't post a lot of production, he was a physical presence on the edge, and he did have some positive moments in the playoffs.

I don't really have a stance on him moving forward yet, because the alternatives that the Patriots might have in mind aren't yet known. I'd prefer to avoid another Shelton 2018 situation, where even a low bar replaceable like Branch 2017 wasn't really improved upon much, if any. But, like you, I can understand the frustrations that some have with the situation.

 

[PatsFan2]

I for one wasn't a fan of the Clayborn signing...but he played remarkably well after his benching. Maybe he gets it now Patriots Defense not easiest to grasp. Remember even Stephon Gilmore struggled in his first year here. I would keep him at his current price you never have enough good Pass Rushers and Derek Rivers sucks. I'd take Clayborn over Rivers 24/7.

 

[mgteich]

The current question is whether Clayborn is worth his $400K roster bonus as an insurance policy.

Later, the question is whether he worth $3.5M (plus incentives) of additional new money for his 2019 services).

 

[zimmy]

If Flowers stays, I'd cut Clayborn in a second. If he leaves, I think we might have to hold on to him to see how the position shakes out in camp.

Frankly though he wasn't great this year. He got benched a couple of times, didn't seem to take direction well (constantly rushing way past the QB and losing contain). He didn't live up to his contract in my view. He got a few pressures because he hardly tried to play the run and sold out to reach the QB.

I'd find a few cheap vets in free agency instead and invest in a draft pick.

 

[Joey007]

Is Clayborn our one big potential cap casualty outside of Gronk DMac and Allen?