The "The Pats don't need many draft picks this year" talk

[mcmurtry86]

It's moot because we're only missing one pick. The first.

Our second round pick is replaced by a pick 8 picks later. Rounds 3,4,5,6,7 we have picks. We're missing one. One.

They're missing one (One) overall pick, but they're missing both of their shots to get a guy in the top 64 and their only shot at getting a guy in the top 32. Not all picks have the same value in terms of liklihood of getting a quality player or value as a trade asset. If the Pats want to move around the board, the #32 and #64 picks are more valuable than the ones they have now. If the Pats want to stay put, #32 is much, much more likely to get a good player than a pick in the 70's.

It's not the overall number of picks, it's the value of those assets and the chances they help your team in the short, medium and long term. Not having a first or second round pick greatly reduces the overall value of the Pats draft selections heading into the draft.

Yeah, last year, they got great production from their middle rounders. That's not usually the case for any team, even the Pats who are IMO one of the best drafting teams in the league.

I think it's unlikely the Pats get much help from this draft class simply because history tells us that the vast majority of picks outside of the top 50-60 wash out of the league really quickly. Chances are they get one solid player, one useful short term role player and a bunch of guys who are out of the league or bouncing around different rosters 2 years from now.

That said, I'm very much in favor of trading the 1st rounder for Cooks and the 2nd rounder going for Ealy and a 3rd was decent value. I have no qualms with what they've done but I think it's perfectly reasonable for Pats fans to expect this to be a pretty dull draft from a Pats point of view. There likely won't be any impact players or immediate starters coming from this class. Hopefully they can find a guy like Flowers, White, Ryan or Harmon in the 3rd/4th rounds but those guys are tough to find. It's more likely they get guys of the Crable, Bequette, Price, Boyce variety.

Ultimately, the Pats have the best and deepest roster in the draft and a lot of good young players at key positions. So if ever there were a year where they don't need to draft a lot of guys, this is it. If they can get 1-2 more pieces through picks, undrafted FA and possibly another trade for a veteran, it will be a successful - if uneventful - draft weekend.

 

[Tony2046]

Fantastic posts in this thread including the OP's. Thanks.

 

[JoeSixPat]

This year this seems to be a recurring subject since Bill traded a lot of our draft picks but actually every year I listen something on those lines. Considering Bill has been building deep and quality rosters for a while and we are not the Browns, every year in the past 3 or 4 years I listen something like "The Pats won't have room for 7 or 8 rookies, so we should trade up for a player with more probability to work out".

Well, every year after the roster cuts some of our draftees are cut, or stashed on the practice squad, that's normal and in my opinion and it's a process Bill has been using for a while to filter the better players and squeeze everything he can out of the 90 players who start training camp. So it's not a waste when you cut a rookie like many people seem to think. Out of 8 rookies, you have to consider players that are busts already on training camp, guys that can't make the transition to the pros, guys that their heads are not 100% on football, guys that are ok but don't fit your scheme, etc..so out of 7 or 8 rookies if you keep 4 of them that give you solid contribution during 4 years that's a good draft. And cutting players is part of this process. So you don't trade up and go to the draft with only 4 or 5 picks because your roster is stacked, because you're not gonna hit on all the choices.

So in my opinion Bill would rather bring 7 or 8 rookies spread all over the draft rounds than like 3 or 4 players from the first rounds. You never know when you're gonna hit a Sherman, an Antonio Brown, or that Brady kid. So it doesn't matter how stacked your roster already is, bringing rookies aboard is a big part of the process of building deep rosters long term.

Now back to this years draft and after having said all of that, I will deconstruct my argument and I really have to agree that this year there is not a lot of room and it may be one of the reasons BB traded some of our picks for proven players even though in the end of their rookies contracts and is all cool heading to the draft, probably already ordered a few gallons of Orange Juice for the draft room.

I don't think BB works with the concept of a championship window or Brady window but there's a chance this year he may have opened an exception in order to take the most out of a big chance we have to repeat and win #6. So now I can really say with confidence that I don't think Jimmy G is going to be traded, the thread was not to discuss that but it's related anyway. If I'm correct in my thoughts, it's a big plan, that could result in a disaster if your backup QB can't win you 2 or 3 games if needed.

Trubisky, if taken #1, will get a 4 year $30 million contract with $20 million guaranteed if last year's Goff contract is any indication. He has started 13 games in College but has zero experience in the NFL, be it in camp, pre-season or in actual games.

Garoppolo has 3 years learning and training experience with Brady and Belichick, a 106 QB rating with 5 TDs and 0 INTs - and will cost a team a whopping $800k. (Well, for now at least - he'd be playing for a new contract or extension this season wherever he goes)

It seems to me the Browns or 49ers would do well to trade their top pick for the better, proven, cheaper player, so despite all the posturing of BB not trading or teams not giving up a top 10 pick - I don't believe that for a second.

But BB won't take less than that for Garoppolo either (a 1st plus other picks at minimum.)

As far as restocking in the draft - at this stage we're talking about stocking a 90 man roster. Belichick always likes "his guys" as we know - and sometimes that looks like a reach to us (though Parcells always reminds us that if you like a guy, you have to take them BEFORE everyone else - illustrating the fallacy of the "reach" if a coach thinks a player can serve a role for him.

But to a large degree Belichick knows the entire draft is a crap shoot - and once guys are on the roster, they're all simply competing regardless of salary. Even if Belichick had NO draft picks this year he'd still fill the 90 man roster with UFAs - and he'd likely find a lot of guys better than those drafted.

That's the key to his success - so while this is "win now" with the Pats wisely trading questionable draft picks for proven veterans (something BB only can do because he's managed the cap space so well) he's not mortgaging the future in the least without picks in the 1st two rounds - should that remain the case.

It's really such a pleasure to watch a well run organization - which makes for year round enjoyment appreciating his off season and draft strategy as much as the Xs, Os and Wins of the regular season!

 

[maineman209]

I get what you are trying to say but they don't have a first or second round pick, they do have a high third. I love the Ealy trade but it's still not a second.

The advantage there is that the obscure DB that Bill would ordinarily have picked in the round won't look like as big of a reach when he picks the guy in the third, even though it's only 8 picks difference.

 

[maineman209]

It will be difficult to find spots for the players we have at these positions. Allocate 9 for OL (especially since 2-3 will be rookies) and 3 at TE, and we will have 12-14 at these 4 positions.

Of course, folks can continue to wish that Belichick stops carrying special team players like Slater, Bolden, Grissom, Ebner, King and J Jones.

There's probably one player at each position who's not particularly involved in ST who could be upgraded out of a roster spot. Justin Coleman, for example.

 

[maineman209]

This has been a great draft for the Pats already!

1st round - elite WR
2nd round - very good rotational DE
3rd round -
3rd round -
4th round - solid #2/move-TE (who can block!)
4th round -
5th round - solid RB
5th round -
6th round -
7th round -

Just six more blanks to fill in.

 

[patsfanboy]

The best part of this year's draft is me not having a heart attack after Bill reaching players.

 

[Tony2046]

The advantage there is that the obscure DB that Bill would ordinarily have picked in the round won't look like as big of a reach when he picks the guy in the third, even though it's only 8 picks difference.

That's funny. 8 pick positions is the difference between a "BB the GM is killing BB the HC" thread and no thread at all.

 

[Deus Irae]

The best part of this year's draft is me not having a heart attack after Bill reaching players.

Thanks, pal. Now we all need to get ready for Johnny Toiletwasher from Nonexistent U being selected in round 3.

 

[Thelonious]

Given the high bust rate, remarkably high for some key positions, high pick draftees are simply not the best investment on a cost/risk basis. Therefore, high draft picks are most valuable in trades for vets - proven commodities to an important degree - and as currency for trading down to the lower rounds where, while the risk of a bust is significantly higher in the aggregate, the cost per draftee down there is by a factor lower. So, we'll have a dull night but an exciting post-season, most years, which is a pretty good bargain as well.

 

[maineman209]

That's funny. 8 pick positions is the difference between a "BB the GM is killing BB the HC" thread and no thread at all.

I know.

It's like, "BB really blew it with that Geneo Grissom pick in the 3rd, but made up for it with that steal of Flowers in the 4th!"

Girssom was picked at #97. Flowers was picked at #101.

 

[Thelonious]

Thanks, pal. Now we all need to get ready for Johnny Toiletwasher from Nonexistent U being selected in round 3.

They get the baubles on draft night; we get the hardware at season's end. Sometimes dull is beautiful.

 

[patchick]

Thanks, pal. Now we all need to get ready for Johnny Toiletwasher from Nonexistent U being selected in round 3.

That's becoming my favorite part of the draft, honestly. The baffled expressions on the talking heads; the howls of misery from the PatsFans draft threads. Who will it be this year?

Predict the "What the *%$#@!" Pick

 

[Deus Irae]

That's becoming my favorite part of the draft, honestly. The baffled expressions on the talking heads; the howls of misery from the PatsFans draft threads. Who will it be this year?

Predict the "What the *%$#@!" Pick

I find it to be a lot of fun when I don't have an emotional investment (in other words, when I'm not focusing on the draft and team needs, but am just looking at it as bonus players (2008 and this year are great examples). I find it obnoxious as hell when I see clear needs overlooked in favor of reach picks.

But that's part of the drill.

 

[Bill Lee]

It's not the overall number of picks, it's the value of those assets and the chances they help your team in the short, medium and long term. Not having a first or second round pick greatly reduces the overall value of the Pats draft selections heading into the draft.

Disagree. Draft picks are lotto tickets. Some hit, some go bust. There's no way to say not having a first round pick means anything at all. That late first round pick could have been someone productive like Malcolm Brown or someone unproductive like Dominick Easley, and till you know who they are, you can't assign value.

BB is often happy to trade one higher draft pick for two lower ones, and that is a very sensible strategy, because it's less likely to miss on two picks than it is to miss on one. You never know the actual upside of the player for quite a while so you might as well have two bites of the apple rather than one.

 

[Anteros]

Thanks, pal. Now we all need to get ready for Johnny Toiletwasher from Nonexistent U being selected in round 3.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Its also possible we see more value in the later rounds than with the top end talent.

You can never have enough depth so I believe bb is still tsking the draft very seriously, could just turn out a very deep draft lessening the importance of having a 1.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

It really isn't even fair.

Rule committee will impose a new mandate next year demanding a capacitator be placed in BB brain allowing him only a quarter of it's functioning power, to level the playing field.

 

[n6249c]

who is "Deatrich Ware"?