The Official 'Trade Brady' Debate Thread - Do Not Start Another One

[emoney_33]

Actually, the CHFF data isn't ignoring anything.....just laying out the winners relative to their years of experience.

And what about the losers relative to their years of experience?

 

[scout]

A dominant defense is a pretty damn hard thing to bank on, no matter what you get in a trade. Injuries, salary and cap space play a significant role in keeping a "dominant" defense on the field for an extended period. With the continuously shifting rules towards offense, it makes it even harder.

Could you name me a trade that you think would give us a high probability of a dominant defense with Cassel for multiple seasons, that is also likely from the opposing team's POV.

If a trade was made, the team which seems to be the best candidate is the 49er's. Another member here, who's football opinion I respect, mentioned LB Patrick Willis (6'1", 240, 23 years old, $2,326,000). The 49er's then trade their #1 and #2 to another team in the top 7 of the draft. Thus, I believe the 49er's become instant contenders without stripping their team and Brady is back home (whatever).
The Patriots then take that #1 and deal it for 2 higher 1st round choices, or they can trade for a vet and a pick. It's too early to determine the pecking order of the college class. So lets say a team with multiple needs will trade out ( Bengals, Lions, Seattle, Raiders, Browns, Rams, and Kansas City).
I have confidence in the Pats first round selections over the years to secure two high caliber defensive players. But just for fun, lets trade a #1 to the Raiders for CB Asomugha (6'0, 225, 25 years old).
With my other #1 I'd take a safety.
Results: Defensive line (check) Linebackers (check) Corners (check) safeties (check). Nothing is a sure thing, but having these athletic defensive members would make a huge impact.
Cassel is not Tom Brady, but he is going to be damn good. Considering his college and pro career, for all intents and purposes, this is Cassel's rookie year.
Again, I'm not saying do this (no one in this thread has said the Patriots SHOULD make the trade) just saying what if.

 

[BradyFTW!]

This thread just passed 500 posts. Probably the most ridiculous premise for a thread that I've ever seen on this board, and it still surpassed 500...

 

[BradyFTW!]

Typo, I'll edit to 2--that's 2 quarterbacks of the last 13. Even at 3, it's a low 20s percentage.

Again, the broader point is that winning Super Bowls is overwhelming a young man's game. From Cold Hard Football Facts:

"The Cold, Hard Football Facts are this: quarterbacks with 10 or more years of experience rarely win Super Bowls. You are much more likely to have a winning QB with six or fewer years of experience than you are to see a winner with 10 or more years of experience.

Since Super Bowl V, 34 games have been played and 20 different quarterbacks have taken home the trophy as the starter. More than half of the winners had 6 or fewer years of experience. Here is the breakdown:

Won first Super Bowl as a rookie through 3rd year of NFL experience (20%):
Roger Staubach
Joe Montana
Kurt Warner
Tom Brady

4th through 6th year of NFL experience (35%):
Bob Griese
Terry Bradshaw
Jim McMahon
Jeff Hostetler
Mark Rypien
Troy Aikman
Brett Favre

7th through 9th year of NFL experience (30%):
Ken Stabler
Joe Theismann
Phil Simms
Doug Williams
Trent Dilfer
Brad Johnson

10 years or more of NFL experience (15%):
Jim Plunkett
Steve Young
John Elway

Now go by age of QB instead, without throwing out every SB after a guy's first. When you're only counting when someone wins their *first* SB, of course the data is going to skew young. And even if you do find validity in the data, Brady is on such an entirely different level than most of these guys that I still don't see the point. Perhaps the Colts should go and trade Peyton Manning, since he's now too old to win a SB?

 

[T-ShirtDynasty]

This thread just passed 500 posts. Probably the most ridiculous premise for a thread that I've ever seen on this board, and it still surpassed 500...

Did ya miss the Carolina Panthers Cheerleaders thread before the board was hacked?


....wait... that wasn't ridiculous at all. Never mind.

 

[PatriotsReign]

Well, I do seem to recall that the 49ers traded Montana to the Chiefs and promoted SYoung to QB..... does that count?

The bottom line is would you rather have Brady and get nothing for Cassel or
keep Cassel, add 2-3 1st rounders and possibly some other players to help out on the D side?

I don't think its a slam dunk either way. Brady may not be the Brady we remember or he could come back as good as ever. Its hard to tell.

I said name one quarterback who was traded AT THE PEAK of his career. Joe Montana was 36 when he was traded to the Chiefs...sorry, try again!

 

[PatriotsReign]

Still no replies on my theory that most who are espousing a possible trade for Brady are Fantasy Football guys??? I'd bet a LOT of money I'm right and the reason no one has responded is because I AM right.

Fantasy Football guys aren't TEAM fans, they are roster guys. They're more interested in trades and draft picks than they are just rooting for their team. They really don't understand the team concept and the personality of the team.

I am so psyched their little scenario's won't even get a sniff or reality. So REAL Patriots fans can snicker at them later!

 

[PatriotsReign]

Typo, I'll edit to 2--that's 2 quarterbacks of the last 13. Even at 3, it's a low 20s percentage.

Again, the broader point is that winning Super Bowls is overwhelming a young man's game. From Cold Hard Football Facts:

"The Cold, Hard Football Facts are this: quarterbacks with 10 or more years of experience rarely win Super Bowls. You are much more likely to have a winning QB with six or fewer years of experience than you are to see a winner with 10 or more years of experience.

Since Super Bowl V, 34 games have been played and 20 different quarterbacks have taken home the trophy as the starter. More than half of the winners had 6 or fewer years of experience. Here is the breakdown:

Won first Super Bowl as a rookie through 3rd year of NFL experience (20%):
Roger Staubach
Joe Montana
Kurt Warner
Tom Brady

4th through 6th year of NFL experience (35%):
Bob Griese
Terry Bradshaw
Jim McMahon
Jeff Hostetler
Mark Rypien
Troy Aikman
Brett Favre

7th through 9th year of NFL experience (30%):
Ken Stabler
Joe Theismann
Phil Simms
Doug Williams
Trent Dilfer
Brad Johnson

10 years or more of NFL experience (15%):
Jim Plunkett
Steve Young
John Elway

This may look nice to you, but in reality, it's bullsh1t. If you look at teams with star QB's, you'll find that their head office actually built a team around each one of them to maximize the benefit of having a super QB. As these QB's aged, so did the team that was built around them.

As teams like the Patriots start to age, you'll find that they usually pick up a young player here and there to plug a hole, but rarely would they rebuild the entire team around them. That is why most of these guys won so much early in their careers.

I don't think Belichick is like most of these coaches. He'll replace half the team (except Brady) to get them back to where he wants them.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Still no replies on my theory that most who are espousing a possible trade for Brady are Fantasy Football guys??? I'd bet a LOT of money I'm right and the reason no one has responded is because I AM right.

Fantasy Football guys aren't TEAM fans, they are roster guys. They're more interested in trades and draft picks than they are just rooting for their team. They really don't understand the team concept and the personality of the team.

I am so psyched their little scenario's won't even get a sniff or reality. So REAL Patriots fans can snicker at them later!

I doubt it. I'm a huge fantasy football fan, mostly because it gives me a reason to care about non-Patriots games. I don't think I'll ever understand the condescending way that some people look down on fantasy football- it's a nice way to kill time, and that's that. A lot of the biggest football fans you'll ever see play fantasy. On the other hand, people have been underestimating chemistry and compatibility in roster-building since long before fantasy football took off.

To answer the question a little more directly for myself in particular, I don't think there's any way whatsoever that Brady will be traded, which is good because you don't give up the best player in the league when you're lucky enough to get him. If you think that people who play fantasy football won't recognize this, then you've missed the mark in a pretty big way.

(I do agree with a little bit of your point, though, in that I hate it when my friends have a guy going against the Patriots, and root for him to put up big numbers, but for his team to lose. That's just lame. I had Kurt Warner going in a playoff game this past weekend, lost because he had such a crappy game, and didn't care because keeping the Pats' playoffs hopes alive was about 2000x more important to me than some random list of names that I happened to slap together).

 

[VJCPatriot]

Another point to consider is that the Ravens have had dominant defenses for years and were not a playoff threat until they got a hold of a decent young QB in Flacco. QB is still the most important position in football.

I won't be glad to see Cassel go, and I believe he has room for improvement and thus upside, but he should bring back a pretty good bounty to help me get over it.

 

[PatriotsReign]

I doubt it. I'm a huge fantasy football fan, mostly because it gives me a reason to care about non-Patriots games. I don't think I'll ever understand the condescending way that some people look down on fantasy football- it's a nice way to kill time, and that's that. A lot of the biggest football fans you'll ever see play fantasy. On the other hand, people have been underestimating chemistry and compatibility in roster-building since long before fantasy football took off.

To answer the question a little more directly for myself in particular, I don't think there's any way whatsoever that Brady will be traded, which is good because you don't give up the best player in the league when you're lucky enough to get him. If you think that people who play fantasy football won't recognize this, then you've missed the mark in a pretty big way.

(I do agree with a little bit of your point, though, in that I hate it when my friends have a guy going against the Patriots, and root for him to put up big numbers, but for his team to lose. That's just lame. I had Kurt Warner going in a playoff game this past weekend, lost because he had such a crappy game, and didn't care because keeping the Pats' playoffs hopes alive was about 2000x more important to me than some random list of names that I happened to slap together).

Thanks for the response. Keep in mind I did not say that every FF person is supporting Brady being traded. I AM saying that I bet many of those who ARE supporting the Brady trade scenario are indeed fantasy football guys. You're NOT supporting him being traded, so that excludes you from my theory.

Below is my contention;

Still no replies on my theory that most who are espousing a possible trade for Brady are Fantasy Football guys???

 

[PatSunday]

Keep both QBs, by force! They will each be worth more in one year than what we could get for them now (Cassel will be worth more--teams could make the argument he'll have a sophomore slump if he's traded right now). Brady will be worth more because he would recover from the injury and have extra time to get strength while Cassel is playing.

Then trade both of them to the same team for their 1st picks for the next 10 years as well as 3 defensive players. Start Kevin O'Connell. People will say trading both is crazy, but the Pats hate players who want a lot of money, and we could use the help in other places.

The New England Patriots selected O'Connell with their third pick (94th overall) of the third round of the 2008 NFL Draft, the highest pick the Patriots have used on a quarterback since they drafted Drew Bledsoe first overall in 1993. He was captain all four years in college.
He is the first player in San Diego State history to lead the team in both passing and rushing in the same season (2007). He holds the school career record for yards rushing (1,312) and touchdowns rushing (19) by a quarterback.
He's 6-feet-6 and weighs 235 pounds. As Don Coryell often said, 'he runs like a deer.' He has plenty of arm. He's smart. He comes from a great background. He has a wonderful personality. He's a leader.
At the 2008 NFL Combine, O'Connell ran the 40-yard dash in 4.61 seconds; only University of San Diego quarterback Josh Johnson had a faster time.

 

[ScottieC]

ESPN - Tom Brady has more surgery, return to New England Patriots unknown - Brady has more knee surgery


Report: Brady has additional surgery on left knee Procedure.....surgery.....all sounds kind of serious to me.

It all sounds serious to you, because it is/was.

However, my point (which was lost on you) was that Brady did not have a second surgery. They did not open his knee up after the initial surgery.

And one more thing, the sensationalistic journalists will take the most negative approach possible.

 

[scout]

Still no replies on my theory that most who are espousing a possible trade for Brady are Fantasy Football guys??? I'd bet a LOT of money I'm right and the reason no one has responded is because I AM right.

Fantasy Football guys aren't TEAM fans, they are roster guys. They're more interested in trades and draft picks than they are just rooting for their team. They really don't understand the team concept and the personality of the team.

I am so psyched their little scenario's won't even get a sniff or reality. So REAL Patriots fans can snicker at them later!

I responded, I hate fantasy football and quite honestly, I think the opposite of your theory is true.

 

[PatriotsReign]

I responded, I hate fantasy football and quite honestly, I think the opposite of your theory is true.

I think the opposite of your opposite theory is true...and I stand by it until proven otherwise!

Unless someone else has a better opposite theory...

 

[groganbootleg]

It all sounds serious to you, because it is/was.

However, my point (which was lost on you) was that Brady did not have a second surgery. They did not open his knee up after the initial surgery.

And one more thing, the sensationalistic journalists will take the most negative approach possible.

I don't think you know for certain what he had done, do you? They have been typically tightlipped about this as they are about all medical issues.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter to me whether he had another "surgery" or two more "procedures", what is important is that the first procedure did not go well, was very complicated and he needed further work. If all had gone perfectly we would have expectations that it would be a long, tough rehab and that he may never get back to where he was before. Having complications afterwards only means that it will be that much more difficult and that the odds he comes all the way back are even greater.

 

[emoney_33]

I don't think you know for certain what he had done, do you? They have been typically tightlipped about this as they are about all medical issues.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter to me whether he had another "surgery" or two more "procedures", what is important is that the first procedure did not go well, was very complicated and he needed further work. If all had gone perfectly we would have expectations that it would be a long, tough rehab and that he may never get back to where he was before. Having complications afterwards only means that it will be that much more difficult and that the odds he comes all the way back are even greater.

Who says it was "very complicated" and not "normal" or "within reason" or "somewhat expected"? Who said we would (or should) have expectations that he may never get back to where he was before? Who said the odds of him coming "all the way back" are not amazingly great?

If this were your average Joe with this injury, then fine expect the knee maybe to never be the same. But this is an extremely wealthy and extremely hard-working professional athlete, whose mental aspects of the game are much more influential in his greatness than the flexibility/strength of his leg/knee.

Hell Rodney Harrison tore his ACL at an older age and at a position that requires more use of the legs, and came back at a relatively high level. You guys are gonna be so paranoid and overly-critical of Brady next year. Every single incompletion or "bad" play is going to turn into a debate of Brady's "knee not being healed completely".

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think you know for certain what he had done, do you? They have been typically tightlipped about this as they are about all medical issues.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter to me whether he had another "surgery" or two more "procedures", what is important is that the first procedure did not go well, was very complicated and he needed further work. If all had gone perfectly we would have expectations that it would be a long, tough rehab and that he may never get back to where he was before. Having complications afterwards only means that it will be that much more difficult and that the odds he comes all the way back are even greater.

That's not necessarily so, as anyone who's had complications following surgery can probably tell you. Whether or not the complication impacts the odds that someone "comes all the way back" depends upon the type and severity of the complication, when it's discovered, how it's handled, and other factors. And, as you noted, they've been tight lipped about this.

 

[groganbootleg]

That's not necessarily so, as anyone who's had complications following surgery can probably tell you. Whether or not the complication impacts the odds that someone "comes all the way back" depends upon the type and severity of the complication, when it's discovered, how it's handled, and other factors. And, as you noted, they've been tight lipped about this.

I sincerely hope to be proven wrong.....

 

[TruthSeeker]

No, I don't think they should trade Tom Brady.