The Cassell fallacy

[everlong]

In spite of the title I'm not bashing Cassell. He did what he had to do that year.

The Peyton apologists will point to 2008 vs the Curtis Painter season. The major difference the Pats didn't give up and suck for Luck but also there were a lot of difference. With more or less the same roster these are the numbers.

2007 oppoents record including the playoffs minus games against NE.

Jets 4-10
chargers 13-4
Bills 7-7
Fins 1-13
Jax 12-4
NYG 13-5
CLE 10-5
CIN 7-8
DAL 14-2
Wash 9-7
IND 13-3
PHI 8-7
PIT 10-6
BAL 5-10

.544 win %
Record against playoff teams 8-1

Playoff team scores

SD 38-14, 21-12
JAX 31-20
DAL 48-27
IND 24-20
WAS 52-7
PIT 34-13
NYG 38-35, 14-17

2008 oppoents record including the playoffs minus games against NE.

MIA 10-5
NYJ 8-6
Buff 7-7
AZ 12-7
SF 7-8
SEA 3-11
STL 2-13
PIT 14-4
IND 11-5
SD 8-9
DEN 7-8
OAK 5-10,
KC 2-14

.491 win%

Record vs playoff teams 2-4

Playoff team scores

MIA 13-38, 48-28
SD 10-30
PIT 10-33
IND 15-18
AZ 47-7

398/578, 68.9%, 4806 yards, 50 TD, 8 INT 8.3 YPA, TD:INT 6.25:1
327/516 , 63.4%, 3693 yards, 21 TD, 11 INT, 7.2 YPA,TD:INT 1.98:1

Strength of Schedule .045 less difficult
5 less wins
5.5% lower completion percentage
1113 less yards
29 less TDs
3 more INTs
.9 less YPA
4.27:1 worst TD:INT

So say a QB has Cassell's numbers and his replacement was the same distance from him as he was from Brady.

6-10 Record
57.9% completion %
2560 yards
9 TD (based on percentage to rule out a negative)
14 INT
6.1 YPA

Brady's season was just so good and the Pats so loaded that 11-5 with those number in context are just about what you would expect froma backup. Looking at the step down from Cassell to the next guy looks like Jamarcus Russell.

I think where you really see the big difference is against the great defenses. With Brady the Pats blew out SD and PIT. With Cassell they got blown out. They just couldn't hide Cassell in those games. Cassell's 2010 looks very much like 2008 where he ganged up on the AFC and NFC west divisions which were awful at the time.

 

[Dagg]

Lots of stats but Im not sure what you are trying to prove here, to whom and the better questions is why?

Pats were better coached and more talented (well balanced). Without Peyton you couldn't hide that teams lack of talent and reliance on him.

 

[everlong]

Just that the drop off from Brady was greater than people make it out to be. "Well they won 11 games with Matt Cassell". Ya against a far inferior schedule where they couldn't beat the playoff teams.

 

[upstater1]

Lots of stats but Im not sure what you are trying to prove here, to whom and the better questions is why?

Pats were better coached and more talented (well balanced). Without Peyton you couldn't hide that teams lack of talent and reliance on him.

And yet when they put in Dan Orlovsky at the end of the year, they won 2 in a row. It was a major league tank job, purposely playing Painter to grab A Luck.

And boy, Luck (though he completed fewer than 60% of his passes as a rookie, and threw a lot of INTs) took that team to the playoffs even though they were the worst in the league the previous year.

 

[goheels22002]

Can you put in a sentence what you think the "Cassell Fallacy" is?

Matt got thrust into a dream situation for a backup. He learned the system for three years behind the best QB of his era, and got handed the keys to a Ferrari that went 18-1 the year before. His coaches adjusted the playbook to fit his skill set and they went 11-5. Brady came back and Matt cashed in on his success.

Where's the fallacy?

 

[everlong]

Can you put in a sentence what you think the "Cassell Fallacy" is?

Matt got thrust into a dream situation for a backup. He learned the system for three years behind the best QB of his era, and got handed the keys to a Ferrari that went 18-1 the year before. His coaches adjusted the playbook to fit his skill set and they went 11-5. Brady came back and Matt cashed in on his success.

Where's the fallacy?

He did a great job but to hear some people talk about it the drop off wasn't that big and in fact it was huge. Some people thought they could go and make a playoff run that year. Baltimore would have crushed them had they beat Miami out for that slot.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

The fallacy is that Curtis Painter is not an NFL starter, he was really that bad.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

He did a great job but to hear some people talk about it the drop off wasn't that big and in fact it was huge. Some people thought they could go and make a playoff run that year. Baltimore would have crushed them had they beat Miami out for that slot.

You're being a little dramatic. Only the finalists in the Peyton Manning semen chugging competition ever tried to make such idiotic arguments.

 

[upstater1]

I hear many TV announcers and analysts (like Mark Brunell) says this all the time. Dilfer has said it, many others. That the dropoff showed Manning's value, and they say it in comparison to the job Cassell did with the Patriots.

Of course, the 2001-02 Patriots went 5-11 the previous year. With Brady, they went 14-3 and won a championship.

 

[Two Eight]

Matt Cassel is a way better QB than that Chad Painter. Those guys are just talking head mediots or jealous or whatever. Comparing those two teams has nothing to do with Brady OR Manning.

Matty kicked ass that year and it made the season fun to watch despite how much that season sucked.

 

[goheels22002]

He did a great job but to hear some people talk about it the drop off wasn't that big and in fact it was huge. Some people thought they could go and make a playoff run that year. Baltimore would have crushed them had they beat Miami out for that slot.

18-1 to 11-5 and out of the playoffs was what it was. I think most people were delighted to just have a winning season.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Can you put in a sentence what you think the "Cassell Fallacy" is?

"Peyton Manning is better than Tom Brady because if you take Peyton away then his team goes 2-14, but if you take Brady away his team still goes 11-5, proving that Tom's even not much better than Matt Cassel."

 

[Deus Irae]

You're being a little dramatic. Only the finalists in the Peyton Manning semen chugging competition ever tried to make such idiotic arguments.

You need to read the "Trade Brady" thread.

 

[sb1]

All true - and the fact they had a lot of trouble beating good teams in 2008 clearly illustrated the downgrade at QB and the system which that QB was running...

But let's not forget they did win something like 5 of their last 6 games including beating the soon to be NFC Champs by 40 points. That is nothing to sneeze at.

Would have been fun to see them make the playoffs even if they probably wouldn't have gotten very far....

 

[SB39]

In spite of the title I'm not bashing Cassell. He did what he had to do that year.

The Peyton apologists will point to 2008 vs the Curtis Painter season. The major difference the Pats didn't give up and suck for Luck but also there were a lot of difference. With more or less the same roster these are the numbers.

The Colts were shamelessly throwing games all season long during the "Suck for Luck" campaign. AFAIC, they went from 10-6 in their final year with Manning to 11-5 in their first year without him, when a rookie QB took them to the Wild Card.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Cassell's demand for better than $3,7 million dollars underlines the fallacy in trading Mallett who commands a CAP of only 660k.

The would be GM, Draftniks assumed they could pick up a Cassell/Hoyer for a few hundred thousand more than Mallett and gain a free draft choice to fantasize about.

Wrong!!!!! Doing so would remove most of the CAP space so that would mean losing Talib, and Edelmamn and probably Wendell and certainly Spikes. How does that improve anything ? It doesn't.

But it gives the Draftniks another pick to fantasize about and play with with until the draft.

 

[Deus Irae]

Cassell's demand for better than $3,7 million dollars underlines the fallacy in trading Mallett who commands a CAP of only 660k.

No, it doesn't. It doesn't do that even a little bit.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

In one year Mallett will likely want close to what Cassel wants now.

If you judge that there is no way to pay him what he will want a year from now, and that he is not an heir apparent in any way, then get a cheap asset for him (a draft pick).

That draft pick hopefully displaces a more expensive current player, who is let go. The money from the slot that you let go then gets allocated to another backup QB. Two spots filled for a longer duration. that's a win

If we don't trade Mallett this offseason, I have to think we intend to overpay for his patience a year from now and have him bide his time for a little longer.

 

[goheels22002]

Cassell's demand for better than $3,7 million dollars underlines the fallacy in trading Mallett who commands a CAP of only 660k.

The would be GM, Draftniks assumed they could pick up a Cassell/Hoyer for a few hundred thousand more than Mallett and gain a free draft choice to fantasize about.

Wrong!!!!! Doing so would remove most of the CAP space so that would mean losing Talib, and Edelmamn and probably Wendell and certainly Spikes. How does that improve anything ? It doesn't.

But it gives the Draftniks another pick to fantasize about and play with with until the draft.

I agree about Cassell. I cannot imagine who his agent is speaking with that is saying he can do better than $3.7 million, and/or why he'd forego the $500k he'll receive if the Vikings cut him. But enough about that.

I don't think there is any relationship between Cassell electing to become a free agent and Ryan Mallett. If someone wants to offer something for Mallett, the Patriots would have to be open to the offer.

Mallett has one year remaining in his deal and is due $777k in 2014 which is excellent money to be Brady's backup. There is no need to extend him at this point. The Patriots can stand pat for 2014.

If some team offered a draft pick or some combination of picks for Mallett and a Patriots draft choice, it could come in very handy as they look to address other needs at DL, OL, S, LB, etc. Back-up QBs are available in the draft and among a group of veteran free agents that includes guys like Kellen Clemens, Matt Flynn, Dan Orlovsky, Colt McCoy, etc. who would be serviceable backups at similar money as Mallett.

But I don't see why any team would offer anything of value for Mallett. He's a huge unknown, especially to us.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I agree about Cassell. I cannot imagine who his agent is speaking with that is saying he can do better than $3.7 million, and/or why he'd forego the $500k he'll receive if the Vikings cut him. But enough about that.

I don't think there is any relationship between Cassell electing to become a free agent and Ryan Mallett. If someone wants to offer something for Mallett, the Patriots would have to be open to the offer.

Mallett has one year remaining in his deal and is due $777k in 2014 which is excellent money to be Brady's backup. There is no need to extend him at this point. The Patriots can stand pat for 2014.

If some team offered a draft pick or some combination of picks for Mallett and a Patriots draft choice, it could come in very handy as they look to address other needs at DL, OL, S, LB, etc. Back-up QBs are available in the draft and among a group of veteran free agents that includes guys like Kellen Clemens, Matt Flynn, Dan Orlovsky, Colt McCoy, etc. who would be serviceable backups at similar money as Mallett.

But I don't see why any team would offer anything of value for Mallett. He's a huge unknown, especially to us.

Transition tag him and you get a first rounder plus. The QB cost is no more then a single franchsie QB, for one year,

Let him go and you get a 3rd rounder in comp pick.

Brady has at most two more good years, Then he can choose to split time, or retire.

Or are you one of those like the Unitas fans in Baltimore who think he can still play while drawing Social Security? And be better than Flacco...