The Brady Decline Myth

[Biffins]

I decided to compare Tom Brady's career post age 35 to his 2018 year. I averaged all his stats for 2012-2017 and it's remarkable that his 2018 season is bang in-line with the average of all those years including completions, attempts, completion percentage, yards, YPA and even TDs. He had a few more interceptions due to fluke deflections, which lowered his rating a few points. He had meaningfully fewer sacks and a few less fumbles.

The man threw for 70% completion percentage, 500+ yards, 10.0 YPA for 33 points in the Superbowl less than a year ago. Which category or statistic or facet of his game do people feel he's declined in?

 

[maust]

View attachment 22074

Which category or statistic or facet of his game do people feel he's declined in?

Since most people can't see the forest for the trees the answer you seek lies in a 'statistic or facet of his game' you did not include in your analysis, namely W's. This year's 11 win total is the lowest since 2009. In other words, most people are still idiots and water is still wet.
Tom F Brady, all he does is win.

 

[Jangles]

I think Brady played poorly by the standard he set for himself.

What I mean is I don’t think he looked particularly sharp, again by his standard. Statistically, sure it wasn’t a horrible year. But I think he’d agree that the Pats offense left a lot of points on the field, and he drives the offense.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Good analysis.

I'd also be interested in seeing breakdown of completion percentage by distance (short, medium, long throws) this year compared to previous years.

 

[Brewskies]

Based on my eye ball test he didn't do that well so far. Lot of football left. He also didn't make some of his bonuses this season based on performance and lost $5,000,000.

Go Pats

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Your stats ignore the fact there was a huge explosion of offense this season yet Brady's stats actually declined. Another way to look at it, Tom Brady QB rating ranking in league:

2013: 17th (Pre-Jimmy G ever starting a game)
2014: 5th
2015: 4th
2016: 2nd
2017: 3rd
2018: 12th (Post-Jimmy G being on team)

He has regressed to the pre-"Jimmy G lighting a fire under Brady's ass era". Still a top 10 QB but not the MVP candidate he's been for the last 4 years.

People keep comparing this team to 2009 but they're much, much more similar to 2013 to me. Just like that season, Brady has limited weapons and the team needs to get an AFCCG game at home to make the SB.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

Both Tom and the coaching staff know what situations are best for Tom and the team. He has a strong arm, good work ethic, knowledge to prepare body properly, cognizant of his abilities and shortcomings. The organization, teammates, and fan base have full confidence in him. I don't care about standards or past norms. Tom and the team have thrived on pushing forward and breaking ceilings. I know for a damn fact a 40 something Brady can drop dimes in the pocket. He's not dunking a basketball, he's a field general using torque, technique, and his mind. When it's over it's over, I'm not thinking about it at all. Prepare, execute, win the Super Bowl. Rinse and repeat.

 

[VectorPrime]

If you asked Brady to grade his season I’m sure he’d be extremely critical.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

If you asked Brady to grade his season I’m sure he’d be extremely critical.

Yeah you're right, just like every single season. Did he miss Hogan because he's old? Would he have hit him last year while tossing 500 in SB but magically cant do it anymore? Federer was supposed to be done 5-7 years ago. Jack won masters at 46. I wouldn't want any other QB under center next Sunday @1pm. Not one.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

If you asked Brady to grade his season I’m sure he’d be extremely critical.

5th in total offense, I think he would take it and buck up for a 3 game win streak.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

After the Steeler game there was a lot of buzz about that jump ball he threw.. "the Brady of old wouldn't have done that"..
They were down 4 points, not 3. That was a perfectly reasonable gamble at that spot while under pressure.

 

[Jlaff]

Good analysis.

[Now go make a] breakdown of completion percentage by distance (short, medium, long throws) this year compared to previous years.

Little demanding?

(Just joking)

 

[Tb12goesinya]

Little demanding?

(Just joking)

Cooks and amendola gone. Edelman percolating back to normal. Gronk battling through his ailments. Playing therapist with a drug addict. Here we are in the final 8 with rest and a home game. I really don't mean to be a Brady fanboy but no one talks about Brees and his age. What did we all expect? Dorsett Edelman Gronk Hogan White Burk Patterson Sony #12 4th ranked oline best secondary in football motivated free agent D linemen A+ special teams full health. Folks I know you all get it but come on. I couldn't care less about not reaching his incentives, its about getting to this situation and getting the job done. I feel gooooooood. I have a strange feeling media will be talking up our D in a few weeks and job Belicheck has done. Shhhhhhhh let's keep being that team with the shoe about to drop

 

[Tony2046]

Good analysis.

I'd also be interested in seeing breakdown of completion percentage by distance (short, medium, long throws) this year compared to previous years.

Can he round up or do you need down to a thousandths of inch?

 

[Deus Irae]

Your stats ignore the fact there was a huge explosion of offense this season yet Brady's stats actually declined. Another way to look at it, Tom Brady QB rating ranking in league:

2013: 17th (Pre-Jimmy G ever starting a game)
2014: 5th
2015: 4th
2016: 2nd
2017: 3rd
2018: 12th (Post-Jimmy G being on team)

He has regressed to the pre-"Jimmy G lighting a fire under Brady's ass era". Still a top 10 QB but not the MVP candidate he's been for the last 4 years.

People keep comparing this team to 2009 but they're much, much more similar to 2013 to me. Just like that season, Brady has limited weapons and the team needs to get an AFCCG game at home to make the SB.

You don't get to talk about ignoring facts when you're choosing to ignore the fact of the offensive personnel issues in your hurry to downgrade the numbers. If you're going to complain about context, stop ignoring the context.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

Every playoff fan base is jacked up for their Super Bowl chances, except ours. We could really use a pedestrian QB

 

[edkk323]

Can he round up or do you need down to a thousandths of inch?

LOL, yeah. I would like to see you waste a whole night so I do not have to think at all.

 

[signbabybrady]

You don't get to talk about ignoring facts when you're choosing to ignore the fact of the offensive personnel issues in your hurry to downgrade the numbers. If you're going to complain about context, stop ignoring the context.

Alot of that going around today we need the games to start before the believers and non believers have a crusade.

 

[signbabybrady]

Every playoff fan base is jacked up for their Super Bowl chances, except ours. We could really use a pedestrian QB

Yep it's a joke. I find the lack of confidence in BB and TB to be disturbing.

 

[Ring 6]

After the Steeler game there was a lot of buzz about that jump ball he threw.. "the Brady of old wouldn't have done that"..
They were down 4 points, not 3. That was a perfectly reasonable gamble at that spot while under pressure.

He wasn’t gambling he was throwing the call away. He miscalculated how much would be taken off the throw by the hit. Exact same thing would have happened at 31 or 21.