The Brady Decline Myth

[Tb12goesinya]

Could have been setting up gronk for pass interference opportunity, debatable. Regardless, down 4 under that pressure that was just an unfortunate play, not a bad decision or poor play

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

You don't get to talk about ignoring facts when you're choosing to ignore the fact of the offensive personnel issues in your hurry to downgrade the numbers. If you're going to complain about context, stop ignoring the context.

My post literally says he has "limited weapons" compared to last 4 years.

Regardless, his play has objectively declined this year, especially in decision making which has nothing to do with his personnel. That doesn't mean he sucks or it's over or he can't lead the team to a SB.

 

[Deus Irae]

My post literally says he has "limited weapons" compared to last 4 years.

Regardless, his play has objectively declined this year, especially in decision making which has nothing to do with his personnel. That doesn't mean he sucks or it's over or he can't lead the team to a SB.

Limited weapons is meaningless, and the line after "Regardless" is simply not correct. Stop doubling down. Step away. Re-assess. Re-think. Then post.

 

[Pessimistic Pete]

Limited weapons is meaningless, and the line after "Regardless" is simply not correct. Stop doubling down. Step away. Re-assess. Re-think. Then post.

More than any other poster on this board, you post something without any elaboration at all. You simply say "you are wrong" or "that is not correct"

Just hit the disagree button if you can't be bothered to elaborate on any of your opinions.

You also think the Kirk Cousins contract was a good one so I know what I'm dealing with here.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

View attachment 22074

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The man threw for 70% completion percentage, 500+ yards, 10.0 YPA for 41 points in the Superbowl less than a year ago. Which category or statistic or facet of his game do people feel he's declined in?

I hate to nit pick but the Patriots did not score 41 points in that particular game

 

[Biffins]

I think Brady played poorly by the standard he set for himself. What I mean is I don’t think he looked particularly sharp, again by his standard. Statistically, sure it wasn’t a horrible year. But I think he’d agree that the Pats offense left a lot of points on the field, and he drives the offense.

Brady would say that every year, for most games, that we left some points on the field. He's a perfectionist.

Based on my eye ball test he didn't do that well so far.

Your eye ball test versus my facts and stats..... hmmmm.

Your stats ignore the fact there was a huge explosion of offense this season yet Brady's stats actually declined.

QB ratings may have improved but points scored by teams didn't.

If you asked Brady to grade his season I’m sure he’d be extremely critical.

Like every season.

 

[Deus Irae]

More than any other poster on this board, you post something without any elaboration at all. You simply say "you are wrong" or "that is not correct"

Just hit the disagree button if you can't be bothered to elaborate on any of your opinions.

You also think the Kirk Cousins contract was a good one so I know what I'm dealing with here.

I've posted a bunch of times on this subject. Others have pointed out the data here which meant that I didn't need to, and you chose to minimize it, and to frame the issue by using "the last 4 years" without getting into the reality of that 2013 team, which is what this year has been most like. In short, hold yourself accountable for context if you're going to hold others accountable for context.

As for the Cousins contract, what the hell are you talking about?

 

[Biffins]

Since most people can't see the forest for the trees the answer you seek lies in a 'statistic or facet of his game' you did not include in your analysis, namely W's. This year's 11 win total is the lowest since 2009. In other words, most people are still idiots and water is still wet.
Tom F Brady, all he does is win.

Come on. Nobody really thinks that if McCourty was in the last play versus Dolphins instead of Gronkowski, getting us to 12 wins, then Brady had a better year as QB. That thought process would be inane.

 

[Nikolai]

Come on. Nobody really thinks that if McCourty was in the last play versus Dolphins instead of Gronkowski, getting us to 12 wins, then Brady had a better year as QB. That thought process would be inane.

Exactly this.

If Malcolm Butler doesn't make that interception in SB XLIX, then Brady is a lesser Super Bowl QB?

 

[SammyBlueCat]

He set such a high standard for so long that just being "good" will look like he has slipped a lot.
He has literally carried this team for many years. He has played at an elite level (for a middle of the road salary) that would in essence mask many deficiencies. We cannot count on that happening for ever.

 

[TB_Helmet]

Can he round up or do you need down to a thousandths of inch?

LOL, yeah. I would like to see you waste a whole night so I do not have to think at all.

You guys are killing me. The OP literally said "what facet do people feel he's declined in" and my thought was "maybe intermediate and deep passing".

If you know some python and where to get the data (in this case BSPN), it definitely doesn't take all night, more like 10-15 minutes. Here's the answer:



Conclusions: His completion % is essentially the same regardless of distance. There are some differences in some cases, but usually when the sample size is small enough for them not to be statistically significant. Notably, he doesn't have one completed pass over 40 yards this year despite averaging about 2 in the previous 5 years (which still seems low to me).

ETA: For some reason BSPN didn't report sacks correctly in these splits so they all show up as 0.

 

[Redman443]

For Brady, the 500 yards passing in the SB wasnt enough because they lost but I blame it on the defense who couldnt stop the eagles on 4th and 1 when they went for it on their side of the field when we were up 33-32. that hurt

 

[edkk323]

You guys are killing me. The OP literally said "what facet do people feel he's declined in" and my thought was "maybe intermediate and deep passing".

If you know some python and where to get the data (in this case BSPN), it definitely doesn't take all night, more like 10-15 minutes. Here's the answer:

View attachment 22076

Conclusions: His completion % is essentially the same regardless of distance. There are some differences in some cases, but usually when the sample size is small enough for them not to be statistically significant. Notably, he doesn't have one completed pass over 40 yards this year despite averaging about 2 in the previous 5 years (which still seems low to me).

ETA: For some reason BSPN didn't report sacks correctly in these splits so they all show up as 0.

Lol, you actually did that?! I knew the completion percentages would not be any difference. 4355 yards this year compares to 4577 yards last year when Brady was the league MVP. 277/4577 that is 4.8% percentage. All the talks about TB off a cliff are nonsense. He made two uncharacteristic Red Zone errors. that is all.

 

[supafly]

For Brady, the 500 yards passing in the SB wasnt enough because they lost but I blame it on the defense who couldnt stop the eagles on 4th and 1 when they went for it on their side of the field when we were up 33-32. that hurt

Just off the top of my head, so if they aren’t right please correct me :

—Pats gave up 12/17 third or fourth down conversions

—Pats gave up 160-165 yards on the ground

These two stats show how poor the defense played.

 

[RayClay]

I think Brady played poorly by the standard he set for himself.

What I mean is I don’t think he looked particularly sharp, again by his standard. Statistically, sure it wasn’t a horrible year. But I think he’d agree that the Pats offense left a lot of points on the field, and he drives the offense.

This is the answer

 

[Jangles]

Brady would say that every year, for most games, that we left some points on the field. He's a perfectionist.



Your eye ball test versus my facts and stats..... hmmmm.

Yeah that wasn’t my point. Brady would say he didn’t play well this season relative to his norm. He missed countless throws, got happy feet far too often, and rarely established any kind of rhythm

I trust the eyes, because stats are for losers

 

[Soliel]

But but! There’s a cliff somewhere!!

 

[everlong]

1. The OL was a mess for a major portion of the schedule. Even when whole they've had some very spotty moments.
2. You didn't have JE11 for the first 4 games.
3. Gordon didn't have training camp and then left the team. He was only an option for half the schedule.
4. Because of the #3 you only replaced Cooks for half the schedule.
5. Gronk is a diminished version of himself.

Even with all his weapons and terrific OL go watch the Dallas game and see how good Drew Brees was when he didn't have time or open receivers for the first time all year. Watch his awful interception to seal that game. Brady as usual has done so much more with less. You give Brees this offense they're the #4 seed. Rodgers has this offense in GB this year and he's out of the playoffs.

But what sells papers and clicks is Brady is declining.

 

[PatriotSpy]

Physically he's declined and he doesn't have the same zip on his throws but he's still a damn good quarterback and that's saying something for his age.

If you can't tell the difference between tom brady in this video and the tom brady now then i don't know what to tell ya.

 

[goheels22002]

Thank you to the OP.

The stat that stands out to me is the decrease in sacks. Brady "bailed out" a lot which was taken to be a reason for criticism. I liked that he was surviving to fight another day. If the Jets game was any indication, he'll suit up next week in pretty good health, as will Gronk.

I think that the Patriots are being overlooked right now and that whoever comes into Gillette is going to face a healthier team that had two weeks to prepare for them. The other factor should be Cordarelle Patterson who will have had three weeks off to get healthy for this next game. Patterson got better as the season wore on in both the running and passing game. The skill guys are there to take care of business next week against any of those teams.

Also, I think they should keep letting Patrick Chung catch kickoffs. The tradeoff of starters subjecting themselves to awkward hits is not worth the risk.