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The 3-year transition Brady/Garoppollo theory - is there any merit?

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If by "few" you mean "5", then we're on the same page.
Then we're not on the same page. I think it is both arrogant and stupid to try to assign a rigid number of years like this and I know damn well NFL organizations don't actually think like this.

Risk assessments just do not work the way you seem to want them to work. bb has to hedge his bets now and never stop hedging them again until Brady is gone. We as fans can afford the luxury of blind faith; he cannot think like a fan here.
 
Why do people want to unquestioningly, unthinkingly assume that Brady will with near-absolute certainty do something no one else in NFL history has ever done? (Well, I know why -- it's because they're fans who aren't responsible for a single damned thing about the operation of an actual football team and so can follow their hearts wherever they go with zero consequences.)
I know what idiot said Brady would win 5 SBs. Jesus.
 
I'm firm "team tom" meaning I trust him to quit when he sucks, and I'll hope for the best in terms of QB situation when that happens. Dont care if they don't do it perfectly, I don't ever want to see him in another uniform nor forced out before his time.

That said, more and more of these threads have referenced a "next 10 years" or "10-15 years" or on the last page"12-15 years" of Garroppolo. Um, what planet are we living on? The legit, with references, GOAT says he thinks he can play til 45 or so and you don't believe him, but by god kick him to the curb to clear the way for JG can also play til he's 40 or so? That's the plan? Nah...its the soft and unstable position of a fanbase spoiled by watching one of the greatest team athletes of all time. The beat does NOT go on just because. Ask the Chicago Bulls.
 
Your plan says cut brady to keep a guy who has played 6 quarters of decent football. It's ludicrous.

A theory is different from a plan. You have no idea how highly the Patriots rate Garopollo. They see him practice every day. I don't know either. Nor did I say that this is a set-in-stone succession. I made that clear in my post.

I think the Patriots value Garoppollo highly and might think he could be a top quarterback, as he has shown more poise and talent in six quarters than Hoyer, O'Connell, and Mallett combined. Tom Brady is 40 years old next season.

The theory, as I stated, is certainly open to disagreement. I think "ludicrous" is a pretty strong word. Maybe not all the exact details are 100% accurate - just a best guess. To think the Patriots haven't considered a transition plan is naive at best.

I also made it clear that things change all the time in the NFL. Maybe Brady throws for 70 TDs next year and Garopollo demands $30M per season. Who the heck knows. I am looking at the situation at this moment and what the contracts and recent moves/non-moves might suggest.
 
We can't just take Brady's word for it. Well WE can but the franchise sure as hell can't. They have more than enough resources to keep making runs long into the future if they can stick the transition from Brady to the next quarterback. That means they HAVE to be thinking about whether, when, and why to risk making that transition, even if Brady is still playing -- heck, they really should be thinking ahead like this even if Brady is still playing well.

it would be utterly negligant of the Patriots franchise to not be prepared to decide on the future of the quarterback decision, not just now, but for the rest of Brady's Patriots career. It's nothing personal, just the kind of due dilligence any franchise would deploy in this situation. Making moves to ensure that the team has transition planning in place at the quarterback position when your QB is 40 years old and the team around him is still fresh and young enough to win, is exactly Bill Belichick's job.

Sooner or later they ARE going to need to transition from Brady to some hotshot up and coming quarterback. I don't care if they do or don't think Garoppolo's that guy, but they need *a* plan to transition to *a* next future starting QB and lead into the next era of Patriots football, and I for one would rather they do it in a controlled way, even if it costs us 1-2 final years of GOATishness, rather than the "wait for the house to burn down and then and only then hold fire drills" strategy some fans here seem to be all in favor of.

There is nothing to lose for a bit of contingency planning. The fans screaming how dare the franchise think ahead clearly have personal insecurity problems and don't want their binky challenged. Guys -- if I know Brady he wants and relishes a challenge to his job. He knows why Garoppolo is still here and it's the kind of challenge he's always risen to and overcome. There's no need to worry about hurting Brady's fee-fees by having another starting-caliber quarterback on the roster for the last 2-3 years of his Patriots career. He's too old, confident, and secure in his abilities to even be worried about crap like that.

Brady will continue to get the inside track on the battle for the starting QB job until a reason arises why he shouldn't have it. That being said any situation in which he actually loses his job to Garoppolo is going to be a situation in which we're very glad JAG is still on the roster. BB is doing his job and getting it right here, because the very least you can say is that depending on how things fall out Garoppolo is certainly part of at least one future of the franchise
 
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I'm firm "team tom" meaning I trust him to quit when he sucks, and I'll hope for the best in terms of QB situation when that happens. Dont care if they don't do it perfectly, I don't ever want to see him in another uniform nor forced out before his time.

That said, more and more of these threads have referenced a "next 10 years" or "10-15 years" or on the last page"12-15 years" of Garroppolo. Um, what planet are we living on? The legit, with references, GOAT says he thinks he can play til 45 or so and you don't believe him, but by god kick him to the curb to clear the way for JG can also play til he's 40 or so? That's the plan? Nah...its the soft and unstable position of a fanbase spoiled by watching one of the greatest team athletes of all time. The beat does NOT go on just because. Ask the Chicago Bulls.

The Chicago Bulls are a terrible example. Wrong sport, very different situation. 12 man roster. Jordan, Pippen, and Jackson all left. That's the NBA.

Let's bring this to the NFL.

Concerned with Joe Montana's injuries and limited remaining career, the 49ers replaced him with backup Steve Young and were among the best teams in the league for the next 7 years, remaining a perennial contender.

The Packers replaced franchise legend Brett Farve in a very unpopular move, as Farve wanted to continue playing. Find one person in Green Bay who continues to think that was a bad decision.

The Colts - mixed results. Jury still out, but Manning had four years left and continued to choke in the playoffs...I don't think they cost themselves a Super Bowl. Hard to say how good Luck is, but they have him for many more years. If he gets a good team around him, I expect the Luck move will be considered to be the correct long-term decision.
 
I am looking at the situation at this moment and what the contracts and recent moves/non-moves might suggest.

The problem is that you haven't painted a very compelling picture. Despite the rhetoric, only two transactions break precedent, Gilmore and Cooks, and neither requires a conspiracy theory to understand. The latter is a rare opportunity to acquire elite young talent at a position NE struggles to hit on in the draft and the former appears to be motivated, in part, by Butler's dispute.

Perhaps more importantly is that they don't even support your thesis. Are these moves Bill going all in? Then why would he neglect an opportunity to strengthen the roster around Tom further? The narrative you've laid out is very inconsistent.

Concerned with Joe Montana's injuries and limited remaining career, the 49ers replaced him with backup Steve Young and were among the best teams in the league for the next 7 years, remaining a perennial contender.

The Packers replaced franchise legend Brett Farve in a very unpopular move, as Farve wanted to continue playing. Find one person in Green Bay who continues to think that was a bad decision.

Neither SF or GB are valid comparisons. SF had no cap worries and Rodgers was the starter before the end of his rookie contract.
 
The problem is that you haven't painted a very compelling picture. Despite the rhetoric, only two transactions break precedent, Gilmore and Cooks, and neither requires a conspiracy theory to understand. The latter is a rare opportunity to acquire elite young talent at a position NE struggles to hit on in the draft and the former appears to be motivated, in part, by Butler's dispute.

Perhaps more importantly is that they don't even support your thesis. Are these moves Bill going all in? Then why would he neglect an opportunity to strengthen the roster around Tom further? The narrative you've laid out is very inconsistent.



Neither SF or GB are valid comparisons. SF had no cap worries and Rodgers was the starter before the end of his rookie contract.

You can pick apart the idea the Patriots are going "all-in" for Brady. I am not confident enough in my own argument that I'd want to argue back, as you could probably provide compelling counter-argument.s and inconsistencies in my logic. That's fine. It was really just a thought, one of many in my post. The overwhelming idea, though, is that Garopollo will replace Brady as the team's starting quarterback, or at the very least that is a very plausible event that may happen, much moreso than most people on here think, as they seem so intent on trading a player who is more likely than not regarded as a long-term franchise quarterback who fits in great with the Patriots system and is 15 years younger than Brady. I can't emphasize enough this has less to do with Brady - and whether or not his play declines - and more about Garoppollo, his age, and the rare opportunity to find a young, long-term franchise quarterback in the NFL. To think the Patriots can just draft a quarterback any time who can excel in their system is incredibly delusional. From what we have seen (admittedly not that much), Garopollo appears to be very promising...sure there will be a learning curve, but the guy looked really good, poised, made quick decisions, and clearly had the talent. There's a reason teams badly wanted to trade for him, even after watching guys like Cassell, Hoyer, and Mallett bust. Watching Garopollo, even in just six quarters, was as close as we've seen a QB play like Brady in 16 years...and it's not even close. To deny his confidence and poise, even in limited action, seems crazy. He had something like a 120 passer rating against good defenses, without Gronk, and he was able to make quick decisions and go through progressions. He was reading the defense well and throwing decisively and accurately.

In terms of SF and GB being invalid comparisons, of course the situations are not identical, but they do have similarities. In both cases the front office decided to move on from its fan idol quarterback, both of whom were considered among the best whomever played, for backups who were developed for several years, and the FO felt that a transition to the younger player was the right move, and they were right. Farve, before his injury, played at a high level for the Jets and in his first year with the Vikings had a near MVP campaign. Montana led the Chiefs to an AFCCG. They may not have been Brady, but they were not done either, and they were gods among their fanbases.

Am I saying that Brady is Favre/Montana? Of course not. Am I guaranteeing that Garopollo is Rodgers or Young? Definitely not. What I'm saying is there is certainly precedent for teams being successful in moving on from their franchise icon quarterback, even when that player has not yet fallen off a cliff, and there was certainly some shock at how quickly Young and Rodgers stepped in to perform at an elite level, while they had previously been referred to as "backups." Will Jimmy G, be an all-pro, Super Bowl winning QB? I don't claim to know that. I just know the Patriots really like him a lot, he is young, and Tom Brady is 40. From those facts alone, reasonable theories can be inferred and discussed, and some of those theories don't involve maximizing the Tom Brady window at all costs, including giving up a highly valued long-term replacement who may have what it takes to be really darn good for many years. If the Patriots believe Garoppollo is a championship-caliber quarterback, then the math does not favor Brady. That's an inescapable truth.

I would bet my life that the Patriots, from Kraft to Belichick to Caserio, spend a lot of time ruminating about a gigantic decision they'll need to make soon, and that it certainly isn't a simple decisive answer as to how they will proceed. Maybe the 2017 season will make things clearer.
 
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A theory is different from a plan. You have no idea how highly the Patriots rate Garopollo. They see him practice every day. I don't know either. Nor did I say that this is a set-in-stone succession. I made that clear in my post.

I think the Patriots value Garoppollo highly and might think he could be a top quarterback, as he has shown more poise and talent in six quarters than Hoyer, O'Connell, and Mallett combined. Tom Brady is 40 years old next season.

The theory, as I stated, is certainly open to disagreement. I think "ludicrous" is a pretty strong word. Maybe not all the exact details are 100% accurate - just a best guess. To think the Patriots haven't considered a transition plan is naive at best.

I also made it clear that things change all the time in the NFL. Maybe Brady throws for 70 TDs next year and Garopollo demands $30M per season. Who the heck knows. I am looking at the situation at this moment and what the contracts and recent moves/non-moves might suggest.
You can't say you have no idea and are only guessing then defend your plan against its flaws.
 
Gotta love the thinking here. If you believe Brady can go another 4 years based upon 16 years playing as the GOAT, getting better the last 4 years, and the training and durability it has clearly brought him, then you are a delusional homer. On the other hand if you believe they should get rid of the GOAT because Kellerman's Cliff, and believe Jimmy Garrapolo will be a franchise QB for the next " 10-15" years based upon 5 quarters of play and his inability to make it through two games, let alone 200, then you are just being pragmatic and logical.


Seriously, GTFOOH
 
I think if the Pats win this year, Brady will walk away. I don't agree with the idea that Brady will simply keep playing until he can't which will likely mean some kind of injury that will follow him around for the rest of his life. With the wife and kids and life he has, it does not seem reasonable to drag it out until some physical ailment stops it. Going out on top as GOAT would provide the icing on the cake that is his legacy.

EDIT: provided they don't go off and trade Garoppolo....if they do, then we will wind up watching him play until he can't which in some ways could be sad
 
I think if the Pats win this year, Brady will walk away. I don't agree with the idea that Brady will simply keep playing until he can't which will likely mean some kind of injury that will follow him around for the rest of his life. With the wife and kids and life he has, it does not seem reasonable to drag it out until some physical ailment stops it. Going out on top as GOAT would provide the icing on the cake that is his legacy.

EDIT: provided they don't go off and trade Garoppolo....if they do, then we will wind up watching him play until he can't which in some ways could be sad

He already is GOAT but I agree about his family and that he would have nothing more to prove with another ring and the thought might be in his mind.

If they trade JG or let him walk there are options in next years draft.
 
He already is GOAT but I agree about his family and that he would have nothing more to prove with another ring and the thought might be in his mind.

If they trade JG or let him walk there are options in next years draft.


I know there are options and I know how people explain we've only seen 5+ quarters of what JG can do, but it is pretty apparent that the front office sees JG as that next guy, and it is 5+ quarters more than they've seen from anyone else......other options will take time and JG is the only one who reasonably represents a seamless transition
 
You can pick apart the idea the Patriots are going "all-in" for Brady. I am not confident enough in my own argument that I'd want to argue back, as you could probably provide compelling counter-argument.s and inconsistencies in my logic. That's fine. Am I guaranteeing that Garopollo is Rodgers or Young? If the Patriots believe Garoppollo is a championship-caliber quarterback, then the math does not favor Brady. That's an inescapable truth.

1) It isn't that there are inconsistencies in your logic, it's that your argument has no basis. It is basically, "Bill has done some mildly unusual stuff and Adam Shefter says Jimmy is staying... here's a convoluted explanation for why the former is due to the latter!"

To illustrate, had NE taken the normal free agent approach you could draw the same conclusion by saying, "See! Bill is focused on the future instead of selling out for Brady's last few years. That long term approach means Jimmy is probably staying."

This is at least as valid and I'd argue more so, which shows that you didn't draw conclusion, you just threaded a narrative.

2) You are still off on SF/GB. The question isn't whether Brady's time will end or can Jimmy be a solid replacement, it is how does JG stick around long enough to be the successor?

That is the critical issue and it's one neither of those places had to do anything unusual to address.

The, "they both moved on while the starter could still play" argument is particularly sound either. It ignores critical factors (Montana's health, Favre's annoying quasi-retirements) but, more importantly, it once again doesn't lead to your conclusion. Given the totality of the comparison, including ease of transition, it better supports why the team might move on next year, not in 2020.
 
1) It isn't that there are inconsistencies in your logic, it's that your argument has no basis. It is basically, "Bill has done some mildly unusual stuff and Adam Shefter says Jimmy is staying... here's a convoluted explanation for why the former is due to the latter!"

There needs to be basis in logic to speculate?

More seriously, there is a reasonable basis in PRECEDENT to argue that the team is enacting a transition plan that gives Tom Brady a set amount of timel eft with the franchise. Ice_Ice_Brady has already mentioned two very valid precedents, Montana to Young and Favre to Rodgers. Both are highly applicable in context, given the level of fan worship the 49ers had for Montana, the cheeseheads had for Favre, and we have for Brady.

There's plenty of reason to think that it COULD happen, and Ice_Ice_Brady is making no allegations about what definitely will happen at all. He's suggesting that it's possible, and you guys are responding like he's trying to throw Tom Brady bodily out of the gates of Gillette Stadium. Your personal insecurities are not Ice_Ice_Brady's problem.
 
The Chicago Bulls are a terrible example. Wrong sport, very different situation. 12 man roster. Jordan, Pippen, and Jackson all left. That's the NBA.

Let's bring this to the NFL.

Concerned with Joe Montana's injuries and limited remaining career, the 49ers replaced him with backup Steve Young and were among the best teams in the league for the next 7 years, remaining a perennial contender.

The Packers replaced franchise legend Brett Farve in a very unpopular move, as Farve wanted to continue playing. Find one person in Green Bay who continues to think that was a bad decision.

The Colts - mixed results. Jury still out, but Manning had four years left and continued to choke in the playoffs...I don't think they cost themselves a Super Bowl. Hard to say how good Luck is, but they have him for many more years. If he gets a good team around him, I expect the Luck move will be considered to be the correct long-term decision.
I use the Bulls example because Jordan is the closest comp for Brady in team sports, and because he was forced out with gas still in the tank, along with Jackson, which led to them trading Pip. They almost certainly would have won the '99 title on the shortened season, and who knows from there. They didn't "leave", the organization thought they had the transition all figured out, pissed them all off, and almost 20 years later have nothing to show for it.

Your NFL examples are terrible. My comparison isn't perfect, but there is no cleanly similar NFL situation. It's exhausting seeing people bring up SF/GB as if they somehow direct everyone to an obvious conclusion.

The 49ers got a free 2+ year preview of Steve Young while Montana was routinely injured. This culminated in the '92 MVP season from Young which made the decision to go with him and move Montana....not a decision at all.
Reasons this is irrelevant to NE: Brady not currently injured, Brady not made of glass, JG has played 5.5 quarters while Young had ~4 full NFL seasons of playing time (and aforementioned MVP award) between SF & TB when the 49ers traded Montana. I'll say this: if Jimmy wins an MVP while Brady is still on the roster, I'd be okay with them cutting/trading TB.

I live in Wisconsin. Replacing legend Brett Favre wasn't that unpopular. Plenty of people - fans as well as management/coaches - were tired of hearing him retire/comeback/retire/comeback for the last few years he was in GB. Despite the '07 season where they were on the brink of the Super Bowl his play was in clear decline the 2 years prior and the team wasn't competitive (not just because of him, but the fact that it seemed like a longer rebuild made many ready to move on). '07 was supposedly his swan song, aw-shucks almost made the SB but I guess I'll retire, the team moved on and worked all summer with A-Aron, then Favre thought he could show up the last week of August and have his job back again.
Irrelevant to NE: Brady not declining by any statistical, physical, or team measurable, Brady not talking about how beat up his body is and teasing retirement every season, Brady not ignoring off-season conditioning or work with the team as Favre did.

Colts, meh (barring a whole bunch of HGH) his neck condition/surgery was basically deemed to be career-ending. They weren't that good the year prior either by comparison to the "best" Colts teams of the Manning era so clearly were looking at a total overhaul. The beatdowns administered by the Pats in the playoffs notwithstanding, they have likely done as well with Luck as they would have with Manning and that roster.
Irrelevant to NE unless BB lets the roster get really old (the 2010 Colts were basically an old version of their '06 title team), plus Brady's physical condition is in zero ways comparable to 2011/2012 Peyton Manning.

.
 
There needs to be basis in logic to speculate?

No, there is no basis to his speculation. When you are saying, "if A then B" and A can be just about anything, you have a poor argument.

There needs to be basis in logic to speculate?

More seriously, there is a reasonable basis in PRECEDENT to argue that the team is enacting a transition plan that gives Tom Brady a set amount of timel eft with the franchise.

Of course the team has a transition plan in place! That isn't in dispute... and it isn't the claim being made, either. Instead, what is being argued is that a specific plan is in place.

Your last paragraph is rather bizarre and likely indicates poor reading comprehension on your part. I have no personal attachment to Brady and would feel nothing but surprise if he were traded tomorrow. I'm only illustrating that - even as just speculation - the OP's arguments don't hold water.
 
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Then we're not on the same page. I think it is both arrogant and stupid to try to assign a rigid number of years like this and I know damn well NFL organizations don't actually think like this.

Which must be why you have repeatedly claimed Brady has 2-3 years.
 
As an opinion yes. As the opinion of one fan, yes. I haven't presumed to speak for the organization and assign 5 years as a rigid transition point as some here have done.
 
You can't say you have no idea and are only guessing then defend your plan against its flaws.

This will be my last post with you, since you sound like a parrot...same response as last time. I already addressed that this isn't a plan, it's a theory, admittedly based on speculation just like everyone else's guess about what the Patriots will do in the future. Go re-read my last post to you and original post. I clearly acknowledge that point multiple times. It makes you seem ignorant that you are attacking me for speculating, when I disclaim multiple times that I am speculating. We are all speculating, using shreds of evidence to infer the team's most likely line of thinking.
 
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