I think they need to sell out to stop the big the play on defense and avoid forcing the big play attempt on offense. If Tampa can get into the red zone about as much as Kansas City, or possibly even a bit less, I think they’ll win.
Tampa Bay’s offense in the red zone is hard to stop with the athleticism of Evans, having those tight ends, Godwin, etc. This is where, I think, having such a big variety of personnel options helps, and though I’ve crapped on Fournette and Jones all season, I’ve pointed out they are both much better closer to the goal line. Kansas City’s red zone defense? Dead last in touchdown percentage. Turnovers on deep pass attempts would be a killer for Tampa here...just so unnecessary to force it deep.
On defense, I think this is the one area where Tampa has as big of a relative edge as you can get against the KC offense. Like any team, KC has a much more limited playbook without the threat of the big play over the top. Having Vea and Suh in the middle is huge here, and this is also where those offensive line woes will hurt the most. You also have the two speedy linebackers, and the other factor is that Tampa’s defensive backs are almost all more physical than they are fast. If you can dedicate a linebacker to Kelce or even double him at all times inside the 10, it’s worth it. You just can’t lose track of him and let him slip out uncovered. They shouldn’t even worry about him as a blocker there.
I think Tampa wins if they keep KC from hitting those huge gash plays and be okay with allowing KC to get a lot of underneath stuff. Making them run more plays also means more plays their offensive line will be counted on, too. Make them provide consistent pass protection and make Mahomes throw 45 passes, mainly short ones. That’s how the 2007 Giants slowed down the Patriots. Might recall that the 2007 Jaguars used the same gameplan weeks before that and Brady went 26/28, with the difference in the games being pass protection.