The 2013 Prospect Thread

[manxman2601]

Lots of declarations today:

Jarvis Jones
Tharold Simon
Eric Reid
Spencer Ware
Travis Frederick (a Mayo favourite who I haven't watched yet)

 

[Get it shawtaay]

I've sort of seen it that way. I also wonder whether those kind of playmakers - like Bruce Irvin last year - have more value to a team with most of its pieces already in place looking to add a versatile, athletic guy who can create mismatches, than to a team needing a core building block.

The Pats have most of the foundation pieces in place, assuming Talib stays. Adding a "wild card" like Ogletree or Jordan who can create mismatches wouldn't be a bad thing.

The thing is, Irvin is only a mismatch insofar as when there's a slow-footed OT there for him to beat. Jordan actually has multi-positional value, and IMO that is what makes him a "joker" type player. I prefer this comparison. A player who could both cover, rush the QB, and play off the line.


Having said that, I'm with you in terms of hesitation when it comes to drafting him in the 1st round. I don't see impact potential if his pass rushing doesn't come along, because he's not very stout, and his positional value relative to a DT or a stud piece on the OL is questionable. The other question would be how to use him and Hightower effectively together.

 

[Off The Grid]

I try so hard to be humble

Oh my God.

I'm as good as anyone on the internet.

Well, that lasted 36 minutes!!

Your efforts are appreciated, and you add something to the Conversation, Mac, but believe me: You aren't anywhere near as good as you think!! :bricks:

 

[Off The Grid]

The thing is, Irvin is only a mismatch insofar as when there's a slow-footed OT there for him to beat. Jordan actually has multi-positional value, and IMO that is what makes him a "joker" type player. I prefer this comparison. A who could both cover, rush the QB, and play off the line.


Having said that, I'm with you in terms of hesitation when it comes to drafting him in the 1st round. I don't see impact potential and his positional value relative to a DT or a stud piece on the OL. The other question would be how to use him and Hightower effectively together.

I don't know if Jordan has a bigger fan ~ or an older one ~ than Brother Mayo...although I'm close ~ in terms of Enthusiasm, not Tenure.

And it is precisely his MultiDimensional possibilities that appealed to'm so intensely, as I'm sure he's discussed, hereabouts. Just for the Record.

I still have more Research to do on'm ~ I basically started my Draft Research 4 days ago ~ I've been busy!! ~ but at this relatively early stage I gotta say that the guy's possibilities as breathtaking...and unique.

 

[mackenzie45220]

Oh my God.



Well, that lasted 36 minutes!!

Your efforts are appreciated, and you add something to the Conversation, Mac, but believe me: You aren't anywhere near as good as you think!! :bricks:

With regard to injuries, I try to be humble. I'm arrogant everywhere else.

 

[mackenzie45220]

Just wrote about Quessenberry. Enjoy
http://nflmocks.com/2013/01/04/david-quessenberry-2013-nfl-draft-scouting-report/

 

[ATippett56]

Nice write up on Kent St. OL Brian Winters:

Kent State left tackle Winters set to begin pursuit of NFL career following GoDaddy.Com Bowl - The Record Courier

Bill Belichick drafts team captains.

I'm sold!

 

[mayoclinic]

Jordan Reed coming out:

Jordan Reed leaving Florida early for NFL

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I agree, I wouldn't use him as a full time line person. He doesn't have the strength or edge setting ability, and bulking him up to 275# or so would take time and would probably impair his fluidity. His best asset is his movement in space, and he's probably best as a 4-3 SLB. NE Patriots' Draft compared him to Mathias Kiwanuka, and that's probably not a bad starting point, though Jordan is much more fluid. I'd use him in space and move him around, drop him back. Put him on the line on occasion, but only situationally.

My problem with Jordan is that I've always loved his skill set, but I'm not sure that I would use a 1st round pick on him. Top 50, certainly. But I tend to want a more "complete" player in the 1st Then again, Seattle used a top 15 pick on Bruce Irvin, so it all depends on how a team sees value. There's no doubt that his skill set can create mismatches, and that may be enough value.

I've been thinking about WLB and using him like Barr would have been used. Lots of blitzing, dropping into coverage, and man coverage on TEs. You'd have to platoon him with Spikes and move Mayo back and fourth.

Even back in my height of Dion Jordan fandom I never though he could be a DE as a rookie.

I quoted these two together because I think they're similar in nature. for the same reason you're not keen on taking Jordan in the first, I'm sort of there on Ogletree too. The reason why I have Minter ranked ahead of Ogletree is that Minter is a MLB, wither in a 3-4 or 4-3. He can play every down and is the main guy in the LB corps. Ogletree probably doesn't have the strength to play MLB in the NFL and will get lost playing in the box. He's a WLB in a 4-3 at the NFL level. I think he's a player you can get creative with and use him on most downs but you don't want him as a key component at stopping the run. He's a playmaker and his athleticism is outstanding but not great value as a first round pick for the Pats.

So whilst Jordan and Ogletree are very different prospects, they are also very similar in their respective values to the Pats.

I agree with your conclusion "He's a playmaker and his athleticism is outstanding but not great value as a first round pick for the Pats" but not how you came to it. I don't really care that he is a Will LB only. I think that will hurt his draft stock, but not necessarily his value. The reason he isn't a great value is because we already have three very good linebackers (yes, I know they can't cover.) One of them would have to sit in the base defense, two in the nickel, and three in the dime.

I can't remember if Mayoclinic said it, but I know he's be thinking it. If you have a LDE that can move inside, then you can move Hightower down to end and keep the other linebackers on the field thus increasing their value. That would make a high pick on a LB feasible.

I've sort of seen it that way. I also wonder whether those kind of playmakers - like Bruce Irvin last year - have more value to a team with most of its pieces already in place looking to add a versatile, athletic guy who can create mismatches, than to a team needing a core building block.

The Pats have most of the foundation pieces in place, assuming Talib stays. Adding a "wild card" like Ogletree or Jordan who can create mismatches wouldn't be a bad thing.

They do IMO. You wouldn't build a house starting at the top would you?

I haven't finished the Stanford game, but I didn't see him play it in the first quarter.
Actually, come to think of it, I'm not 100% sure I saw Stanford come out in a 3 receiver set in the first quarter. That may have something to do with it.

I wondered that too. That screen cap I gave you is the first snap he had at CB (that the youtube video caught) and it was in the 3rd quarter.

I'm just like you when I have to write a scouting report on a guy with an injury history. I watch 300 games a year, but that doesn't make me a doctor. I try so hard to be humble

I'm lucky enough to have a friend that is an orthopedic surgeon. If I didn't I'd be doing all the research I could to develop some form of expertise on injuries. I told him Lattimore is ranked as a third rounder. He told me that it was "nonsensical."

I read about 10 coaching books every offseason. I don't know as much as Belichick, but I'm as good as anyone on the internet. It's tough to get a feel for certain zone coverage schemes when the camera only shows one side of the field (the side the ball went to), but I have a fairly good understanding of what's going on

Like right now for example. I'm watching NC State and Vandy and the idiot cameraman keeps zooming in on the QB at the snap. Hey idiot, you're doing it wrong! This is useless when I'm trying to scout Jordan Matthews and Davis Amerson.

 

[mayoclinic]

I've been thinking about WLB and using him like Barr would have been used. Lots of blitzing, dropping into coverage, and man coverage on TEs. You'd have to platoon him with Spikes and move Mayo back and fourth.

Even back in my height of Dion Jordan fandom I never though he could be a DE as a rookie.

Exactly. I've always seen Jordan, Barr and Ogletree has having some overlap, albeit a number of differences. Jordan started as a WR, then a TE before converting to DE/OLB. Barr was a RB/H-Back. Barr doesn't have Jordan's absurd length, but at 6'4" he's still fairly tall. I've never referred to Jordan as a "DE"; always considered him a hybrid, and a space player more than a line player. His value is his ability to be moved around in space and create mismatches.

I agree with your conclusion "He's a playmaker and his athleticism is outstanding but not great value as a first round pick for the Pats" but not how you came to it. I don't really care that he is a Will LB only. I think that will hurt his draft stock, but not necessarily his value. The reason he isn't a great value is because we already have three very good linebackers (yes, I know they can't cover.) One of them would have to sit in the base defense, two in the nickel, and three in the dime.

I can't remember if Mayoclinic said it, but I know he's be thinking it. If you have a LDE that can move inside, then you can move Hightower down to end and keep the other linebackers on the field thus increasing their value. That would make a high pick on a LB feasible.

That was part of the proposal I called "Diont'a HighJordan". Use Jordan and Hightower (or Barr and Hightower, or Ogletree and Hightower) with Hightower playing LDE or standing up as a 4th LB, or as a 3rd LB with Jordan/Barr/Ogletree playing more of a coverage role, or blitzing, or moving up on the line. Either way you get an additional playmaker, with coverage ability that we currently lack. Getting everyone on the field would be a bit tricky, and one of the reasons I might hesitate to use a 1st round pick, but in the 2nd round I'd jump at the value, without question. In the 1st it still might be worth it, depending on whether BB felt he could make it work and who else was available.

They do IMO. You wouldn't build a house starting at the top would you?

Again, I'm intrigued about adding a Jordan/Barr/Ogletree kind of playmaking talent in addition to our current mix. We've got impact players on the line in Wilfork and Jones, and Jones has the ability to stand up up on a limited basis. Mayo, Hightower and Spikes are all impact players. BB really hasn't tapped into Hightower's versatility so far this season, but that's part of his real value - his ability to move around, inside and out, on the DL as well as at LB. If you add a big, athletic LDE with the ability to move inside like Hunt, Kruger or Gholston, plus a hybrid space guy like Jordan or Ogletree, then you really have a lot of playmaking ability in your front 7, and the ability to move people around without changing personnel and create havoc. And if the back end can hold together the way it was showing signs of doing when Talib/Dennard were healthy, then the coaching staff can start to get creative with that kind of talent.

I wondered that too. That screen cap I gave you is the first snap he had at CB (that the youtube video caught) and it was in the 3rd quarter.

I havne't watched the video of the Oregon/Stanford game in detail. However, aside from injury concerns, Stanford's TEs create significant coverage issues that create problems for opposing defenses and their pass rushers. UCLA pretty much used Anthony Barr exclusively as a coverage LB shadowing the TEs when they played Stanford rather than as a pass rusher. I don't know how Oregon used Jordan in their game. My interest in him is not so much as a pure pass rusher, but as a hybrid space player, anyway, so sack totals don't really interest me.

I'm lucky enough to have a friend that is an orthopedic surgeon. If I didn't I'd be doing all the research I could to develop some form of expertise on injuries. I told him Lattimore is ranked as a third rounder. He told me that it was "nonsensical."

As an anesthesiologist specializing in trauma care with 20 years of experience, it amuses me to listen to some of the medical discussions that go on. Teams can spend a pick on anyone they want, and it's hard to make firm statements without access to MRI and CT scans, but Lattimore has a long, long road to haul to recover from his injuries from what I can tell and from my discussions with the orthopedic surgeons with whom I work. I wouldn't mind risking an extra 7th on him or signing him as a UDFA on the gamble that he can work his way back for 2014 or beyond, but a 3rd? Whoever wants to do that is welcome to him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Dane Brugler on Cotton Bowl Risers and Fallers:

2013 NFL Draft: Cotton Bowl Risers and Fallers - CBSSports

Jake Matthews has already said he's going back, though I'm not sure he'll improve his stock much more, as he probably would be a top 10-15 pick this year, going neck and neck with Taylor Lewan as the #2 OT after Joeckel. Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson won't be far behind. Probably 5 OTs in the top 25, if Matthews changes his mind. That should push some defensive or interior OL talent down to the Pats.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Exactly. I've always seen Jordan, Barr and Ogletree has having some overlap, albeit a number of differences. Jordan started as a WR, then a TE before converting to DE/OLB. Barr was a RB/H-Back. Barr doesn't have Jordan's absurd length, but at 6'4" he's still fairly tall. I've never referred to Jordan as a "DE"; always considered him a hybrid, and a space player more than a line player. His value is his ability to be moved around in space and create mismatches.



That was part of the proposal I called "Diont'a HighJordan". Use Jordan and Hightower (or Barr and Hightower, or Ogletree and Hightower) with Hightower playing LDE or standing up as a 4th LB, or as a 3rd LB with Jordan/Barr/Ogletree playing more of a coverage role, or blitzing, or moving up on the line. Either way you get an additional playmaker, with coverage ability that we currently lack. Getting everyone on the field would be a bit tricky, and one of the reasons I might hesitate to use a 1st round pick, but in the 2nd round I'd jump at the value, without question. In the 1st it still might be worth it, depending on whether BB felt he could make it work and who else was available.



Again, I'm intrigued about adding a Jordan/Barr/Ogletree kind of playmaking talent in addition to our current mix. We've got impact players on the line in Wilfork and Jones, and Jones has the ability to stand up up on a limited basis. Mayo, Hightower and Spikes are all impact players. BB really hasn't tapped into Hightower's versatility so far this season, but that's part of his real value - his ability to move around, inside and out, on the DL as well as at LB. If you add a big, athletic LDE with the ability to move inside like Hunt, Kruger or Gholston, plus a hybrid space guy like Jordan or Ogletree, then you really have a lot of playmaking ability in your front 7, and the ability to move people around without changing personnel and create havoc. And if the back end can hold together the way it was showing signs of doing when Talib/Dennard were healthy, then the coaching staff can start to get creative with that kind of talent.



I havne't watched the video of the Oregon/Stanford game in detail. However, aside from injury concerns, Stanford's TEs create significant coverage issues that create problems for opposing defenses and their pass rushers. UCLA pretty much used Anthony Barr exclusively as a coverage LB shadowing the TEs when they played Stanford rather than as a pass rusher. I don't know how Oregon used Jordan in their game. My interest in him is not so much as a pure pass rusher, but as a hybrid space player, anyway, so sack totals don't really interest me.



As an anesthesiologist specializing in trauma care with 20 years of experience, it amuses me to listen to some of the medical discussions that go on. Teams can spend a pick on anyone they want, and it's hard to make firm statements without access to MRI and CT scans, but Lattimore has a long, long road to haul to recover from his injuries from what I can tell and from my discussions with the orthopedic surgeons with whom I work. I wouldn't mind risking an extra 7th on him or signing him as a UDFA on the gamble that he can work his way back for 2014 or beyond, but a 3rd? Whoever wants to do that is welcome to him.

As long as it's not Bill.

Great post, and while you didn't say he is, I don't think Ogletree is quite in the same class as Barr and Jordan.

You didn't list Carradine as a player that could move inside. You don't think he can?

 

[mackenzie45220]

I've been thinking about WLB and using him like Barr would have been used. Lots of blitzing, dropping into coverage, and man coverage on TEs. You'd have to platoon him with Spikes and move Mayo back and fourth.

Even back in my height of Dion Jordan fandom I never though he could be a DE as a rookie.



I agree with your conclusion "He's a playmaker and his athleticism is outstanding but not great value as a first round pick for the Pats" but not how you came to it. I don't really care that he is a Will LB only. I think that will hurt his draft stock, but not necessarily his value. The reason he isn't a great value is because we already have three very good linebackers (yes, I know they can't cover.) One of them would have to sit in the base defense, two in the nickel, and three in the dime.

I can't remember if Mayoclinic said it, but I know he's be thinking it. If you have a LDE that can move inside, then you can move Hightower down to end and keep the other linebackers on the field thus increasing their value. That would make a high pick on a LB feasible.



They do IMO. You wouldn't build a house starting at the top would you?



I wondered that too. That screen cap I gave you is the first snap he had at CB (that the youtube video caught) and it was in the 3rd quarter.



I'm lucky enough to have a friend that is an orthopedic surgeon. If I didn't I'd be doing all the research I could to develop some form of expertise on injuries. I told him Lattimore is ranked as a third rounder. He told me that it was "nonsensical."



Like right now for example. I'm watching NC State and Vandy and the idiot cameraman keeps zooming in on the QB at the snap. Hey idiot, you're doing it wrong! This is useless when I'm trying to scout Jordan Matthews and Davis Amerson.

Too high, too low?

I know, it's annoying. But for reasons I can't explain, I have a better history of scouting corners and receivers than all other positions. I'm proud of every catch Antonio Brown makes like a father would be. I never miss a Titans game if it's on cable so I can see my boy, Alterraun Verner. I have a better history with corners and wide receivers than any other position.

Actually, why don't I rank the positions by the accuracy of my predictions? So you guys know more about what to believe.

1. Wide Receivers
2. Corners
3. Safeties (Kendrick Lewis was a nice find, along with UDFA Delano Howell having a nice camp and making the Bills, later the Colts)
4. Defensive tackles (Suh>McCoy, had Geno Atkins in the second round, first on "late riser" Linval Joseph's bandwagon, loved Muhammad Wilkerson, didn't like Terrence Cody, but I was harsh on Marcell Dareus and Jurrell Casey)
5. Quarterbacks (first on RGIII's bandwagon, said Blaine Gabbert was overrated, loved Cam Newton, who didn't regress as much this year as people think, thought Tebow sucked, hated Jake Locker, loved Andrew Luck, liked Wilson, didn't like Tannehill, but I missed with Clausen and kinda Dalton)
6. Inside linebackers (worshiped Sean Lee, called Daryl Washington perfectly, loved Kelvin Sheppard, off with Rolando McClain)
7. 4-3 Outside linebackers (didn't like Navorro Bowman, but I had K.J. Wright as the most underrated prospect of the draft, big fan of Weatherspoon and Lavonte David)
8. Tight ends (I thought Gronk's back was serious when he wouldn't work out at the combine. I was wrong. Loved Aaron Hernandez, Tony Moeaki, and Jimmy Graham)
9. Defensive ends/3-4 outside linebackers (In 2011, I had Aldon Smith at 5, J.J. Watt at 6, Cameron Jordan at 10 (he's as good as anyone in the NFL against the run), Ryan Kerrigan at 20, Adrian Clayborn at 23, and Robert Quinn at 40, so that was a good year. Karl Klug was another nice find. However, Whitney Mercilus didn't have a great season, I wasn't a big JPP fan, and one of my all time sleepers, Markus White, hasn't panned out yet)
10. Offensive linemen (Pretty high on Nate Solder, loved Kelechi Osemele, liked Tyron Smith, didn't like Derrek Sherrod or Gabe Carimi, but I loved Russell Okung and Danny Watkins while I hated the Pouncey twins)
11. Running backs (DeMarco Murray might be my biggest miss ever; not only did I not claim he was underrated, but I truly thought he was overrated. I liked Mark Ingram. However, so far, I was right about Trent Richardson and his horrible yards per carry, saying that the ability to accelerate quickly is the difference between Arian Foster and Jonathan Stewart, Richardson resembling the latter.)

 

[mackenzie45220]

Exactly. I've always seen Jordan, Barr and Ogletree has having some overlap, albeit a number of differences. Jordan started as a WR, then a TE before converting to DE/OLB. Barr was a RB/H-Back. Barr doesn't have Jordan's absurd length, but at 6'4" he's still fairly tall. I've never referred to Jordan as a "DE"; always considered him a hybrid, and a space player more than a line player. His value is his ability to be moved around in space and create mismatches.



That was part of the proposal I called "Diont'a HighJordan". Use Jordan and Hightower (or Barr and Hightower, or Ogletree and Hightower) with Hightower playing LDE or standing up as a 4th LB, or as a 3rd LB with Jordan/Barr/Ogletree playing more of a coverage role, or blitzing, or moving up on the line. Either way you get an additional playmaker, with coverage ability that we currently lack. Getting everyone on the field would be a bit tricky, and one of the reasons I might hesitate to use a 1st round pick, but in the 2nd round I'd jump at the value, without question. In the 1st it still might be worth it, depending on whether BB felt he could make it work and who else was available.



Again, I'm intrigued about adding a Jordan/Barr/Ogletree kind of playmaking talent in addition to our current mix. We've got impact players on the line in Wilfork and Jones, and Jones has the ability to stand up up on a limited basis. Mayo, Hightower and Spikes are all impact players. BB really hasn't tapped into Hightower's versatility so far this season, but that's part of his real value - his ability to move around, inside and out, on the DL as well as at LB. If you add a big, athletic LDE with the ability to move inside like Hunt, Kruger or Gholston, plus a hybrid space guy like Jordan or Ogletree, then you really have a lot of playmaking ability in your front 7, and the ability to move people around without changing personnel and create havoc. And if the back end can hold together the way it was showing signs of doing when Talib/Dennard were healthy, then the coaching staff can start to get creative with that kind of talent.



I havne't watched the video of the Oregon/Stanford game in detail. However, aside from injury concerns, Stanford's TEs create significant coverage issues that create problems for opposing defenses and their pass rushers. UCLA pretty much used Anthony Barr exclusively as a coverage LB shadowing the TEs when they played Stanford rather than as a pass rusher. I don't know how Oregon used Jordan in their game. My interest in him is not so much as a pure pass rusher, but as a hybrid space player, anyway, so sack totals don't really interest me.



As an anesthesiologist specializing in trauma care with 20 years of experience, it amuses me to listen to some of the medical discussions that go on. Teams can spend a pick on anyone they want, and it's hard to make firm statements without access to MRI and CT scans, but Lattimore has a long, long road to haul to recover from his injuries from what I can tell and from my discussions with the orthopedic surgeons with whom I work. I wouldn't mind risking an extra 7th on him or signing him as a UDFA on the gamble that he can work his way back for 2014 or beyond, but a 3rd? Whoever wants to do that is welcome to him.

One thing that also confuses me; are all torn ACL's the same? When we hear about a torn ACL, the only thing we're told is "torn ACL." But I assume some are worse than others, and, even if I was a doctor, I don't know how I could make a prediction with a guy like Lattimore without seeing his particular X-rays. Am I right?

 

[Off The Grid]

"Enter" is a very easy Key to hit.

Doesn't take much effort at all.

I would think that ~ as an exuberant 16 Year Old ~ you could manage it.

 

[EwanSellars]

personally im not a huge fan of Jordan or Ogletree i prefer Barr. Btw Penn State is in the big 10 right? im hoping to watch more of them with Christian Hackenberg with Bill obriens offense could be a potential Brady replacement. Bridgewater and hackenberg are the two i like most.

 

[mayoclinic]

One thing that also confuses me; are all torn ACL's the same? When we hear about a torn ACL, the only thing we're told is "torn ACL." But I assume some are worse than others, and, even if I was a doctor, I don't know how I could make a prediction with a guy like Lattimore without seeing his particular X-rays. Am I right?

No they're not all the same. There are partial tears (such as Logan Mankins'), full tears. Tears of both the ACL and the MCL, and the other associated ligaments. Dislocation (such as Lattimore reportedly suffered, and such as former Pats 1st round RB Robert Edwards suffered) can affect the vascular supply to the leg and threaten the leg. Soft tissue swelling can compromise blood flow and be potentially limb-threatening. Infection can compromise wound healing and recovery, as occurred with Brady. We only know what's reported in the press. Without the Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) films it's impossible for even an orthopedic surgeon to assess, and even then the recovery course is unpredictable. Genetics, post-operative course, and sheer will to recover all play a huge factor. Adrian Peterson's surgeon called his recovery a "miracle", and obviously wouldn't have predicted it. Doctors don't have crystal balls. But from all reports Lattimore's injury was fairly bad, with severe hyperextension, and involved multiple ligaments in addition to the ACL. I would be shocked if he sees the field before 2014 and is fully recovered before 2015, and there's a decent chance that he may never be the same back he was before. Then again, he could be Frank Gore. It's all a gamble, but a 3rd round gamble would seem pretty steep to me.

 

[mayoclinic]

personally im not a huge fan of Jordan or Ogletree i prefer Barr. Btw Penn State is in the big 10 right? im hoping to watch more of them with Christian Hackenberg with Bill obriens offense could be a potential Brady replacement. Bridgewater and hackenberg are the two i like most.

I love all 3, but I was particularly intrigued by Barr, and hoped he would have come out. If the Pats trade out and get an extra 2014 pick I'd love to pick up Barr or Kyle Van Noy.

 

[mayoclinic]

Tyler Bray reported has signed with an agent:

2013 NFL Draft: Vols QB Bray signs with agent - CBSSports

 

[patsinthesnow]

"Enter" is a very easy Key to hit.

Doesn't take much effort at all.

I would think that ~ as an exuberant 16 Year Old ~ you could manage it.

I see Draft forum rivalries are forming.