The 1st 4 Games and the playoff chances

[RecoveringCowboy]

A few years ago, a sports writer commented on a team's start and the odds of making the playoffs.

• 1st game - every other team loses, so it's usually not big deal, unless a key player is injured or you get beat by a team you should have owned.
• 2nd game - If you are 0-2, it's time to worry. Note that the Pats had a 0-2 start and won a SB in 2001. Historically a 12% chance of making the playoffs.
• 3rd game - If you are 0-3, historically there is only a 10% chance of making the playoffs.
• 4th game - In the great gridiron in the sky Don Meredith is warming up to croon The Party's Over. In the Modern Era (1970 to present), only the 1976 Steelers and 1992 Chargers survived an 0-4 start and made the playoffs.
• 5th game - Nobody has ever made the playoffs starting 0-5. Period. If you are a reporter, this is an excellent question to torment the front office or HC of a team with a bad start.

On positive side, the Pats won their first game without a full deck of cards on the road, so that could bode very well. Wish I had stats on the SB odds of teams with 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 wins.

One more thought: After everyone plays their first 4-5 games, we start to get a picture of who's definitely in the playoffs, who's definitely not in the playoffs. Still will be plenty of teams that could go either way midseason. Besides, about 30% of last years playoff teams don't return the next year.

 

[Tony2046]

A few years ago, a sports writer commented on a team's start and the odds of making the playoffs.

• 1st game - every other team loses, so it's usually not big deal, unless a key player is injured or you get beat by a team you should have owned.
• 2nd game - If you are 0-2, it's time to worry. Note that the Pats had a 0-2 start and won a SB in 2001.
• 3rd game - If you are 0-3, historically there is only a 10% chance of making the playoffs.
• 4th game - In the great gridiron in the sky Don Meredith is warming up to croon The Party's Over. In the Modern Era (1970 to present), only the 1976 Steelers survived an 0-4 start and made the playoffs.
• 5th game - Nobody has ever made the playoffs starting 0-5. Period. If you are a reporter, this is an excellent question to torment the front office or HC of a team with a bad start.

On positive side, the Pats won their first game without a full deck of cards on the road, so that could bode very well. Wish I a had stats on the SB odds of teams with 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16 wins.

One more thought: After everyone plays their first 4-5 games, we start to get a picture of who's definitely in the playoffs, who's definitely not in the playoffs. Still will be plenty of teams that could go either way midseason. Besides, about 30% of last years playoff teams don't return the next year.

I'm not worried about the Pats making the playoffs but I am worried about HFA or getting a bye.

I imagine the Pats would need approximately a 12-4 record to get a first round bye.

If Garoppolo can get 2 wins out of the 4 games it would give Brady a 2 game cushion.

I hope JG can get them to 3 wins because Brady may need a week or two to get into rhythm.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

On HFA, if they finish better than the Broncos, they probably own it.

 

[nabwong]

On the flip side

2015 falcons won 6 out of first 7 games and then lost 7 out of 9.

 

[Mike the Brit]

The Patriots were 3-0 in 2002 as defending Super Bowl champions -- and didn't make the playoffs.

 

[Gwedd]

On the flip side

2015 falcons won 6 out of first 7 games and then lost 7 out of 9.

But they originated the "Dirty Bird", so they've got that going for them.......

 

[meatface]

I have a real hard time believing the team will be able to win today and Thursday. That short week should be better early in the season but I dont know if you want a banged up think playing both games and I doubt Hightower will be ready by Thursday

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[Joker]

who the **** is "think"?

 

[supafly]

The Patriots were 3-0 in 2002 as defending Super Bowl champions -- and didn't make the playoffs.

I forgot what a monumental collapse that was. Losing the next 4 games where they failed to score more than 16 points was definitely the downfall to that season.

 

[Ring 6]

I have a real hard time believing the team will be able to win today and Thursday. That short week should be better early in the season but I dont know if you want a banged up think playing both games and I doubt Hightower will be ready by Thursday

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Houston will be playing on a short week too. On the road. Without their best LB.

 

[HTownChris]

Houston will be playing on a short week too. On the road. Without their best LB.

A lot will be told later today on how they handle KC. They were thumped twice last year by them.

 

[Ring 6]

A lot will be told later today on how they handle KC. They were thumped twice last year by them.

Regardless of what they do today the perception that we are at a disadvantage because we are on a shirt week and may have an injured LB is wrong.

 

[BTTA]

• 5th game - Nobody has ever made the playoffs starting 0-5. Period. If you are a reporter, this is an excellent question to torment the front office or HC of a team with a bad start.

What would the question be?

 

[Mike the Brit]

I forgot what a monumental collapse that was. Losing the next 4 games where they failed to score more than 16 points was definitely the downfall to that season.

Yes. Other teams saw that the Pats couldn't stop the run up the middle and it got ugly pretty quickly ... Taught me a lot about the NFL.

(Which is another reason why the Pegulas are idiots. The first few weeks are pre-season. The games count, of course, but coaching really kicks in later.)

 

[manxman2601]

5th game - Nobody has ever made the playoffs starting 0-5. Period. If you are a reporter, this is an excellent question to torment the front office or HC of a team with a bad start.

True although the Chiefs lost 5 of the first six last year and made the playoffs.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

What would the question be?

Chances of making the playoffs after a 0-5 start.

 

[meatface]

Houston will be playing on a short week too. On the road. Without their best LB.

And Miami isn't great, but neither team is a pushover and playing two games in four days means a lot can go wrong. I just hope they can get today won so we don't have to worry about dropping to 1-2

 

[UGAPatsfan]

But they originated the "Dirty Bird", so they've got that going for them.......

I live in Atlanta...no earthly idea how Quinn survived to this year. Horrible HC.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

The Patriots were 3-0 in 2002 as defending Super Bowl champions -- and didn't make the playoffs.

Literally any time would have been appropriate for Kraft to restore our logo & uni's [for example, before the ink was dry on the bill of sale from Orthwein], but 2002 would have made sense: Orthwein, Parcells, Bledsoe all gone, and Brady clearly at the beginning of a stellar career and the team to be in the national spotlight for years to come. But, as always, no.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

In the past, 12% of 0-2 teams reach the playoffs. This year, there are 7 teams

• Redskins
• Colts
• Jaguars
• Saints
• Browns
• Stinky Fish

Will any 0-2 teams reach NFL playoffs?