Sort of OT: MLB Covid outbreak- season might be in jeopardy

2020 Patriots Season:
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Sep 20th

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PatsFanInVa

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Seriously... you'd look a lot less foolish if you simply admitted that you support the protests and feel they serve a greater good, but admit that it is textbook activity that we have been told we should avoid to contain the virus.
LMAO, that is just precious.

I actually worried that it would come out the other way. Turns out the data say, nope, moving crowds, generally masked, outdoors, haven't been a big driver of infection.

But I do love one of the "it will disappear!" crowd explaining to me how to look a lot less foolish.

1. Mandatory masks
2. Close the bars and other indoor congregating areas
3. Yes, Promote social distancing
4. This won't be familiar to you, so read slowly and sound out all the words. When you're in a hole, stop digging. In this case, stop balling up your little fists and screaming for "normal" things to happen so you can pretend everything is fine. No, not a good time for school, not a good time for work inside buildings that you can do from home, and so on.

It would be uncivil and against board rules to say you're an idiot, not to mention an insult to idiots everywhere. But you do take positions consistently that idiots would take, and then... this is the most entertaining part... crow with pride over what would appear to be your ignorance (not that I'm calling you ignorant. That would be like sneering about how foolish you look.)

LOL "you'd look a lot less foolish."

You slay me.

Trouble is, it might end up literally true.

Carry on with the murder lobbying.
 

pheenix11

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Speaking for South Korea, since I have close friends there...

Starting in February they geared up to fight this (vs. mid-March for us).

Arguably the best thing they did was universal mask wearing and social distancing. That was coupled with lots of testing and contact tracing at the early stages. All positives and those exposed to people testing positive went into strict isolation, installing a smartphone app and/or wearing a tracking bracelet so they could not leave their quarantine area (try that here, lol). Same for all people coming into the country- isolate, and be tracked.

Even healthy people in South Korea agreed to smartwatch monitoring for the first signs of fever.

Japan pretty much beat it without all of the testing, tracing, and tracking. They were champs at mask wearing and distancing. They didn't even shut businesses, in most areas.

I know there has been a lot of doubting even in this thread about mask wearing. The thing is, in an exponential growth situation, even a very small effect on reducing transmission can be huge for the population as a whole.

See the red line below. It models a situation where each infected person transmits to 3.1 others. That is called R-naught, the infectivity factor. Getting to the blue line, you need to reduce transmission by just 16%, from 3.1 to 2.6. Getting to the purple line, you need to reduce transmission by 39%, 3.1 to 1.9. That is a no pandemic situation.

Masks aren't 100% effective, but are they >16% effective if everybody wears them, even cloth ones? Probably yes. With good masks (S. Korea had an N95 stockpile!) and social distancing starting in February, we, like South Korea, could be on the purple line. But here in July, we have not yet been able to give it a good start.

What no one seems to comprehend, or perhaps are intentionally ignoring for various reasons, is that all those lines end up in the same place.

You can’t run and hide from a virus. It won’t stop until we reach herd immunity and it has no one else to easily transmit to. That doesn’t happen until enough people get it. So either get it now or get it later, doesn’t really matter except in regards to hospital capacity.

Numbers are already going down in Florida just like they did everywhere else. These same spikes will happen everywhere until each respective area reaches herd immunity.

Cloth masks are a joke and are just a placebo to make idiots feel better. The truth is there is nothing anyone in the government can do because the cure would be worse than the solution. But people are children these days and can’t handle the truth. So instead we get the overreaching idiocy that we’re experiencing now.
 

XLIX

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
What no one seems to comprehend, or perhaps are intentionally ignoring for various reasons, is that all those lines end up in the same place.

You can’t run and hide from a virus. It won’t stop until we reach herd immunity and it has no one else to easily transmit to. That doesn’t happen until enough people get it. So either get it now or get it later, doesn’t really matter except in regards to hospital capacity.

Numbers are already going down in Florida just like they did everywhere else. These same spikes will happen everywhere until each respective area reaches herd immunity.
+1. +1 +1

Numbers of daily cases are going down in Florida and Texas (and almost exactly when I predicted they would based on historical trends). They seem to have plateaued in Georgia. California has started a very slight downward trend. These were the 4 states which saw huge surges this past month. To science deniers it seems like magic, when really it is just a matter of reaching a mass where enough people have it/have had it that the R0 slips below 1, which is a very good thing. (Please note none of the above precludes the chances of a second wave somewhere down the line)

It is logical to expect that daily deaths, while currently increasing in those states, will start to decrease by the end of next week. However, it is worth noting that Texas radically redefined how they calculate deaths and went from roughly 5,200 to 6,200 in a single day. There is only so much a data driven model can do in the face of the numbers being so radically reconstituted. Any further redefinitions will throw another wrench into the works.

Now a whole new batch of new states are seeing rises. The Dakotas, Mississippi, Virginia, Illinois, Hawaii (among others). The country as a whole seems to have plateaued, but I believe the daily case counts will decrease since the surges are coming from less-populated states.
 
Last edited:

MrBigglesWorth

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+1. +1 +1

Numbers of daily cases are going down in Florida and Texas (and almost exactly when I predicted they would based on historical trends). They seem to have plateaued in Georgia. California has started a very slight downward trend. These were the 4 states which saw huge surges this past month. To science deniers it seems like magic, when really it is just a matter of reaching a mass where enough people have it/have had it that the R0 slips below 1, which is a very good thing. (Please note none of the above precludes the chances of a second wave somewhere down the line)

It is logical to expect that daily deaths, while currently increasing in those states, will start to decrease by the end of next week. However, it is worth noting that Texas radically redefined how they calculate deaths and went from roughly 5,200 to 6,200 in a single day. There is only so much a data driven model can do in the face of the numbers being so radically reconstituted. Any further redefinitions will throw another wrench into the works.

Now a whole new batch of new states are seeing rises. The Dakotas, Mississippi, Virginia, Illinois, Hawaii (among others). The country as a whole seems to have plateaued, but I believe the daily case counts will decrease since the surges are coming from less-populated states.
And they are just sbout to unleash college students itching from to socialize... Bring in the interstate travel... Then we get k-12... Its a powder keg
 

MrBigglesWorth

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
What no one seems to comprehend, or perhaps are intentionally ignoring for various reasons, is that all those lines end up in the same place.

You can’t run and hide from a virus. It won’t stop until we reach herd immunity and it has no one else to easily transmit to. That doesn’t happen until enough people get it. So either get it now or get it later, doesn’t really matter except in regards to hospital capacity.

Numbers are already going down in Florida just like they did everywhere else. These same spikes will happen everywhere until each respective area reaches herd immunity.

Cloth masks are a joke and are just a placebo to make idiots feel better. The truth is there is nothing anyone in the government can do because the cure would be worse than the solution. But people are children these days and can’t handle the truth. So instead we get the overreaching idiocy that we’re experiencing now.
Hurry run and get it... Strange logic
 

Nunchucks

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What no one seems to comprehend, or perhaps are intentionally ignoring for various reasons, is that all those lines end up in the same place.

You can’t run and hide from a virus. It won’t stop until we reach herd immunity and it has no one else to easily transmit to. That doesn’t happen until enough people get it. So either get it now or get it later, doesn’t really matter except in regards to hospital capacity.

Numbers are already going down in Florida just like they did everywhere else. These same spikes will happen everywhere until each respective area reaches herd immunity.

Cloth masks are a joke and are just a placebo to make idiots feel better. The truth is there is nothing anyone in the government can do because the cure would be worse than the solution. But people are children these days and can’t handle the truth. So instead we get the overreaching idiocy that we’re experiencing now.
The rest of the world has figured out how to deal with it - we and a few other backward countries are the only ones stumbling about with skyrocketing cases and a death count that just won't quit.

Why can't people understand that we are failing at a level that is astonishing compared to other countries....stop with the excuses.
 

XLIX

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
The rest of the world has figured out how to deal with it - we and a few other backward countries are the only ones stumbling about with skyrocketing cases and a death count that just won't quit.
I know you have an aversion to facts, but here are some for the rest of the forum to digest:

Actually, the rest of the world hasn't exactly figured out how to deal with it. Central and South America have surged significantly over the past 6 weeks or so. 2 South American countries, Peru and Chile, went from very low numbers at the start of (our) summer to passing the U.S. in deaths per capita. Brazil is on a trajectory to pass us very soon as well in that category. Mexico is currently surging.

Overseas, the virus has unfortunately caught up to India. That populous nation did a great job of containment during spring and early summer, but now cases have doubled over the past month and currently show no signs of slowing down. (I have a lot of friends and colleagues in India and am hearing the stories that they think it is even worse than the official numbers claim.) While Australia's numbers are low, they saw their deadliest Covid day just this week. Japan is another country who was very low in May/June, but is currently surging (although, like Australia, while their "surge" is a sharply-upward trajectory, it is still very low in terms of raw numbers).
 

Nunchucks

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I know you have an aversion to facts, but here are some for the rest of the forum to digest:

Actually, the rest of the world hasn't exactly figured out how to deal with it. Central and South America have surged significantly over the past 6 weeks or so. 2 South American countries, Peru and Chile, went from very low numbers at the start of (our) summer to passing the U.S. in deaths per capita. Brazil is on a trajectory to pass us very soon as well in that category. Mexico is currently surging.

Overseas, the virus has unfortunately caught up to India. That populous nation did a great job of containment during spring and early summer, but now cases have doubled over the past month and currently show no signs of slowing down. (I have a lot of friends and colleagues in India and am hearing the stories that they think it is even worse than the official numbers claim.) While Australia's numbers are low, they saw their deadliest Covid day just this week. Japan is another country who was very low in May/June, but is currently surging (although, like Australia, while their "surge" is a sharply-upward trajectory, it is still very low in terms of raw numbers).
I noticed you left comparable countries in Europe...instead comparing the richest country in the world to countries with questionable governments and poor infrastructure.

Why do you have such a low opinion of our country?
 

XLIX

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
I noticed you left comparable countries in Europe...instead comparing the richest country in the world to countries with questionable governments and poor infrastructure.

Why do you have such a low opinion of our country?
Sorry not sorry, but unlike you, I do not look upon people with brown skin (or the countries within which they reside) with hatred and disdain. But if you really want to discuss Europe....

5 Western European countries have higher deaths per capita than the U.S. and that will probably be 6 soon once France passes us. Spain is currently seeing a surge (are they European enough for you? I know you look down upon people with brown skin, so I wasn't sure if Spain counted as European in your view). Belgium has seen a noticeable uptick in daily cases. The U.K., Germany and France are each very quietly raising some eyebrows at the slight upward trend they are currently seeing. We are hearing whispers of this being the start of the 2nd Wave. Their numbers are low compared to what they saw a couple months ago, but definitely heading in the wrong direction.

Are the U.K. and Germany white enough for you to discuss? These articles are from the past 2 days:

Europe grapples with coronavirus 2nd wave worries

"I'm afraid you are starting to see in some places the signs of a second wave of the pandemic," British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, as his government reimposed restrictions on anyone coming into the U.K. from Spain.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...d12632-d0d1-11ea-826b-cc394d824e35_story.html

Meanwhile, German health officials have called a rise in infections in the past two weeks deeply concerning.

“People are being infected everywhere,” said Ute Rexroth, head of surveillance at Germany’s Robert Koch Institute, which sounded the alarm on rising numbers on Tuesday. “Weddings, meetings with friends, sadly, also nursing homes or health institutes. We are worried that this could be a change of trend.”

 

QuantumMechanic

Burn it all down!
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Meanwhile, German health officials have called a rise in infections in the past two weeks deeply concerning.

“People are being infected everywhere,” said Ute Rexroth, head of surveillance at Germany’s Robert Koch Institute, which sounded the alarm on rising numbers on Tuesday. “Weddings, meetings with friends, sadly, also nursing homes or health institutes. We are worried that this could be a change of trend.”
German officials are "deeply concerned" because the country has it fairly under control, the officials aren't lunatic morons like officials here, and they want to keep it under control. From the very article you quote, here are the numbers for the whole country that has them concerned:

"Germany, for instance, recorded 633 new cases on Tuesday, compared with more than 6,000 daily cases at its peak."

633.
vs. 70000+

And you keep trying to claim the US couldn't have done better than we have. HA.

(Good for them that they are worried about 633. Elected officials (and too much of the populace) here aren't too worried about thousands and thousands of cases occurring in places with less population than all of Germany.)
 

XLIX

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
German officials are "deeply concerned" because the country has it fairly under control, the officials aren't lunatic morons like officials here, and they want to keep it under control. From the very article you quote, here are the numbers for the whole country that has them concerned:

"Germany, for instance, recorded 633 new cases on Tuesday, compared with more than 6,000 daily cases at its peak."
What part of "Their numbers are low compared to what they saw a couple months ago, but definitely heading in the wrong direction." did you not understand?
 
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