So Which Pieces on Offense/Defense Are a Part of the Future?

[maineman209]

I expect them to cut him prior to FA, save the money, and use it on someone who is worth a damn. They will already be cutting things close. Guys like Clayborn should be the first to go in order to free up money.

The amount the Pats would save in net cap expense from cutting Clayborn is the same whether it happens before 2019 FA or at the end of 2019 Camp ... $4M, minus at least the salary of the player who replaces him on the roster (minimum $495k).

In the four games since the BYE, Clayborn has been playing about 37% of the D-snaps, slightly more than his season average for 14 games (34%). Meanwhile, Simon has been playing about 36%, and Wise about 31% (down from his season average of 40%). None of the three of them has provided much relief for Flowers, who has been playing about 86% of the D-snaps since the BYE (up from his season average of 81%).

Clayborn has contributed only about 11 tackles on the season and hasn't protected the edge well at all. OTOH, his total QB pressures are about 56% of Flowers total in less than half the average amount of snaps. Definitely not a prototypical Pats' edge-player, but still providing decent value per snap in at least the pressure aspect - significantly more than Wise and Simon combined.

The Pats need to decide whether or not Clayborn's net contributions are worth the net ~$3.5M it costs to keep him. They may not have enough information to make that decision until they see how matters play out with other edge-players who are under contract for 2019, and with others who are not yet under contract.
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According to Miguel, the Pats would have about $19.9M in cap space at the start of the 2019 league year, based on the cap increasing to $190M (toward the high end of current estimates).

If Clayborn is cut before Flowers or Simon are re-signed, that would leave the Pats with ...

Under contract for 2019:
Wise
Davis
Rivers
Hightower

Not yet under contract for 2019:
Harris (Psquad)
Kamalu (Psquad)

as potential DL-Edge players on the roster.

The Pats typically don't count their chickens before they're hatched, if they can avoid doing so. While anything's possible, I don't expect Clayborn to be cut before other DL-Edge player matters are resolved.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I posted some of this a week or so ago in the Draft forum...

I think first you have to look at the obvious moves....


All of this ASSuMEs that Brady is back for 2019:

The cuts

Allen: ($7.4 mil cap savings, no dead money)
No way they can justify him at this number.

McCourty ($9.5 mil cap savings, $3.9 mil dead money)
Maybe one of the worst contracts in Pats history, finally time to get out from underneath it.

Slater ($2.5 cap savings, $500,00 dead money)
let him retire with grace, but his time has come. (should have kept Boldin over him this year (and that was my opinion long before Boldin had his day yesterday.)

Hoyer ($1.49 mil cap savings, $1.5 in dead money)
He just isn't that good, at least give a younger cheaper player a shot.

Keionta Davis ($570,000 cap savings, no dead money)
If he can't make the game day roster with the 2018 defense, cut him and create more cap space.

The re-signings:

Tender Josh Gordon at the first round rate.
$4.429 cap hit, all guaranteed (no brainer). Opps, not anymore.... let him go

Franchise tag Trey Flowers ($17.144,000 cap charge) and try to re-sign him, but if nothing else don't let him walk.

Try to bring back at a reasonable rate:
Trent Brown (or let him walk if you want to hand LT to Wynn)
Malcom Brown
Coradelle Patterson

Let walk:
Gostkowski-too much money, too many misses.
Ryan Allen-might as well get younger and cheaper at both punter and kicker (although he could easily be in the "bring back at a reasonable rate club too).
Jason McCourty
Chris Hogan
Danny Shelton (sucks that they still owe a 3rd round pick for this guy who can't beat out a number of UDFA).
Jeremey Hill
Anthony Dorsett
Rowe

So all these moves and a restructure of Hightower's contract leaves the Pats with $24 million in cap space.

The offensive line is OK with what they have under contract. Michel and White are fine at RB. The WR would be Gordon, Edelman, and then they would need some help.

The Pats desperately need another couple TE, one to fill in for Gronk, the other to play the AH swing TE role.

The defensive line is abysmal. Keep Flowers. Guy and Clayborn's contracts (Vs the dead money cutting them would cost) would point to them staying and basically get rid of everyone else. Keep Hightower and van Noy, but a sppedy LB or two are desperately needed, either via FA or the draft. Gilmore is a stud, I can live with the rookie Jackson. The safety position needs revamping.

As of today they have 12 draft picks in 2019

They have their own picks in rounds 1,2,4,7 (3-Shelton, 5-Gordon,6-Bademosi)
1st-own
2nd-own
2nd- from Chicago
3rd from Detroit
(2) 3rd round comp picks (Solder, Butler)
4th-own
5th rd comp pick (Amendola)
7th-own
7th from Philly
7th from Cleveland
7th rd comp pick (Fleming)

Needs:
pass rusher, speed LB, Safety, QB, TE

For the love of God, trade up like they did when they came away with Jones and Hightower, and not down! Use all those 3rd rd picks to go up and grab someone you really need. Imagine if the Pats jumped up a few spots and grabbed Vander Esch instead of Wynn? Or Goedert instead of Dawson? I have zero faith in Dawson, a second rd pick that can't even beat out a couple of UDFA to get on the gameday roster of a really, really, bad defense?

I don't really like and of the QBs in this class. Jacob Fromm will most likely come out in 2020, that is the QB to go after!

Free Agency:

Demarcus Lawrence and Jadaveon Clowney are both going to be UFA, I would say go after one of them, and still try and keep Flowers, but that will never happen. Calias Campbell might be a cap casualty in JAX, I have wanted him on the Pats for years now!

Safeties: Earl Thomas or Landon Collins

TE: Jared Cook might be a good safety blanket in case Gronk goes down

LB:K.J Wright, Anthony Barr


It is amazing what this team has been able to accomplish with the limited talent, but that time is now past. If Brady is going to come back, load up for another run!

 

[supafly]

The amount the Pats would save in net cap expense from cutting Clayborn is the same whether it happens before 2019 FA or at the end of 2019 Camp ... $4M, minus at least the salary of the player who replaces him on the roster (minimum $495k).

In the four games since the BYE, Clayborn has been playing about 37% of the D-snaps, slightly more than his season average for 14 games (34%). Meanwhile, Simon has been playing about 36%, and Wise about 31% (down from his season average of 40%). None of the three of them has provided much relief for Flowers, who has been playing about 86% of the D-snaps since the BYE (up from his season average of 81%).

Clayborn has contributed only about 11 tackles on the season and hasn't protected the edge well at all. OTOH, his total QB pressures are about 56% of Flowers total in less than half the average amount of snaps. Definitely not a prototypical Pats' edge-player, but still providing decent value per snap in at least the pressure aspect - significantly more than Wise and Simon combined.

The Pats need to decide whether or not Clayborn's net contributions are worth the net ~$3.5M it costs to keep him. They may not have enough information to make that decision until they see how matters play out with other edge-players who are under contract for 2019, and with others who are not yet under contract.
----------
According to Miguel, the Pats would have about $19.9M in cap space at the start of the 2019 league year, based on the cap increasing to $190M (toward the high end of current estimates).

If Clayborn is cut before Flowers or Simon are re-signed, that would leave the Pats with ...

Under contract for 2019:
Wise
Davis
Rivers
Hightower

Not yet under contract for 2019:
Harris (Psquad)
Kamalu (Psquad)

as potential DL-Edge players on the roster.

The Pats typically don't count their chickens before they're hatched, if they can avoid doing so. While anything's possible, I don't expect Clayborn to be cut before other DL-Edge player matters are resolved.

I’m aware of the projected cap space, and I don’t believe that it’s enough with the roster holes and overall lack of bodies on the 2019 roster. I think there’s a decent chance that Clayborn will be released earlier, rather than later. This would allow them more opportunities in free agency when the talent pool is greater (March). We’ll see how it all shakes out.

 

[supafly]

I posted some of this a week or so ago in the Draft forum...

I think first you have to look at the obvious moves....


All of this ASSuMEs that Brady is back for 2019:

The cuts

Allen: ($7.4 mil cap savings, no dead money)
No way they can justify him at this number.

McCourty ($9.5 mil cap savings, $3.9 mil dead money)
Maybe one of the worst contracts in Pats history, finally time to get out from underneath it.

Slater ($2.5 cap savings, $500,00 dead money)
let him retire with grace, but his time has come. (should have kept Boldin over him this year (and that was my opinion long before Boldin had his day yesterday.)

Hoyer ($1.49 mil cap savings, $1.5 in dead money)
He just isn't that good, at least give a younger cheaper player a shot.

Keionta Davis ($570,000 cap savings, no dead money)
If he can't make the game day roster with the 2018 defense, cut him and create more cap space.

The re-signings:

Tender Josh Gordon at the first round rate.
$4.429 cap hit, all guaranteed (no brainer). Opps, not anymore.... let him go

Franchise tag Trey Flowers ($17.144,000 cap charge) and try to re-sign him, but if nothing else don't let him walk.

Try to bring back at a reasonable rate:
Trent Brown (or let him walk if you want to hand LT to Wynn)
Malcom Brown
Coradelle Patterson

Let walk:
Gostkowski-too much money, too many misses.
Ryan Allen-might as well get younger and cheaper at both punter and kicker (although he could easily be in the "bring back at a reasonable rate club too).
Jason McCourty
Chris Hogan
Danny Shelton (sucks that they still owe a 3rd round pick for this guy who can't beat out a number of UDFA).
Jeremey Hill
Anthony Dorsett
Rowe

So all these moves and a restructure of Hightower's contract leaves the Pats with $24 million in cap space.

The offensive line is OK with what they have under contract. Michel and White are fine at RB. The WR would be Gordon, Edelman, and then they would need some help.

The Pats desperately need another couple TE, one to fill in for Gronk, the other to play the AH swing TE role.

The defensive line is abysmal. Keep Flowers. Guy and Clayborn's contracts (Vs the dead money cutting them would cost) would point to them staying and basically get rid of everyone else. Keep Hightower and van Noy, but a sppedy LB or two are desperately needed, either via FA or the draft. Gilmore is a stud, I can live with the rookie Jackson. The safety position needs revamping.

As of today they have 12 draft picks in 2019

They have their own picks in rounds 1,2,4,7 (3-Shelton, 5-Gordon,6-Bademosi)
1st-own
2nd-own
2nd- from Chicago
3rd from Detroit
(2) 3rd round comp picks (Solder, Butler)
4th-own
5th rd comp pick (Amendola)
7th-own
7th from Philly
7th from Cleveland
7th rd comp pick (Fleming)

Needs:
pass rusher, speed LB, Safety, QB, TE

For the love of God, trade up like they did when they came away with Jones and Hightower, and not down! Use all those 3rd rd picks to go up and grab someone you really need. Imagine if the Pats jumped up a few spots and grabbed Vander Esch instead of Wynn? Or Goedert instead of Dawson? I have zero faith in Dawson, a second rd pick that can't even beat out a couple of UDFA to get on the gameday roster of a really, really, bad defense?

I don't really like and of the QBs in this class. Jacob Fromm will most likely come out in 2020, that is the QB to go after!

Free Agency:

Demarcus Lawrence and Jadaveon Clowney are both going to be UFA, I would say go after one of them, and still try and keep Flowers, but that will never happen. Calias Campbell might be a cap casualty in JAX, I have wanted him on the Pats for years now!

Safeties: Earl Thomas or Landon Collins

TE: Jared Cook might be a good safety blanket in case Gronk goes down

LB:K.J Wright, Anthony Barr


It is amazing what this team has been able to accomplish with the limited talent, but that time is now past. If Brady is going to come back, load up for another run!

Not sure why you would lump Clayborn in with Guy. One saves twice as much money against the cap and has been a joke at his position. The other has been a consistent player, has a reasonable pact, and only saves around 2m.

 

[Joey007]

Many would have considered Gordon a part of next year’s future.

Cross that one off.

 

[stinkypete]

On offense, the young core is Michel, White, and the offensive line (hopefully, including Trent Brown). I would not be surprised if we see a completely new WR/TE group by 2020.

On defense, the core is Guy, Flowers, Wise, Butler, Bentley, Van Noy, Gilmore, Jackson, Jones and Harmon. It would be great of Melafonu realizes his potential too, but at the moment, he is nothing but potential.

Sad to say, but I forsee the times of Gronk, Edelman, Hightower, McCourty and Chung coming to an end over the next two years.

 

[Adam Seward]

Shelton has flopped so far, Guy and the rest are useful enough as rotational.

Is Clayborns contract and lack of run defense offset by his pressure generated?

Do we retain Flowers as a known quantity or keep flexible under the cap and pick up 2 or 3 players who are mid tier yet unknowns to our organization?

Is Hightower injured or old? Is he being taken away from where he should be due to horrendous line play vs run? He could be seemingly out of position due to other groups needing supplementation. We can’t know which is true, beyond speculation, without a team level knowledge of scheme and play assignments

Is KVN a long term utility LB? Less achieved than Nink but has a certain dependability to him. Has green dot experience.

Is Bentley our athletic LB? He seems to have promise but an athletic LB has been elusive since Collins lost his motivation.

Roberts is a less impactful Spikes, and the board hated Spikes..

Is this a secondary we can roll into next year? McCoutrys are old, has Devin declined and do we have a secondary experienced enough to handle his replacements learning curve, assuming his replacement it a “hit”?

Is Gronkowski injured or old?

Can Edelman roll into next year? He is playing well this season. Berrios is unknown yet has expectations of a similar role. Do we explore another option for JE11s eventual replacement? Do need another able shifty body with JE11 to offset the role DA had served?

Will the line be improved with Wynn? Enough to consider rolling into next year with what we have?

Hogan has been down this year. New dynamics to the offense had shifted his previously successful role to the back burner. Is he the piece we utilize to keep the defense honest deep?

Does Patterson stay as our X factor? He has incredible physical talent and has not disappointed yet. I would like to see this develop.

Did Dorsett snap a fin on Toms surf board? Run Toms Nissan diesel in Costa Rica out of oil? Has the offense just shifted in prep and execution away from him with the inclusion of Gordon and JE11? Will he contribute heading into the new year without Gordon?

 

[maineman209]

I’m aware of the projected cap space, and I don’t believe that it’s enough with the roster holes and overall lack of bodies on the 2019 roster. I think there’s a decent chance that Clayborn will be released earlier, rather than later. This would allow them more opportunities in free agency when the talent pool is greater (March). We’ll see how it all shakes out.

I really don't believe that the Pats will short themselves at the position in order to "go shopping". That seems really random and risky.

I think it's more likely that the Pats will take things one step/piece at a time. If Clayborn is going to go, it seems more likely to happen after the Pats are certain they have an adequate replacement under contract, and a specific use in mind for the cap space. That may happen in March. It may not happen until August.

We also really don't know whether or not the Pats intend to more of a majority 3 DL front. That could make a huge difference in the way things play out for a lot of guys.

 

[maineman209]

Many would have considered Gordon a part of next year’s future.

Cross that one off.

I did. Tentatively. He was to be an RFA at the end of the season and, so, still under the Pats' contractual control.

 

[Triumph]

Many would have considered Gordon a part of next year’s future.

Cross that one off.

Show some compassion. Gordon deserves a 2nd chance from the Pats.

The Browns and NFL gave him 5 chances