So how good are the Denver Broncos?

[PATS16N0]

Brady and Belichick HAD a history of completely owning Manning and the Colts, up until 2005. Since then, every meeting they've had with Peyton has been competitive, and the record between them is about split.

2005 is the year that New England let a lot of its weapons go (or was that 2006?) and his later wins came when Brady was rehabilitating his injured knee, so basically 3/4ths of Mannings 4 wins against Brady are questionable.
Brady has defeated Manning 7 times IIRC.

Not scared of Manning, sorry.

I am admittedly looking forward to seeing him pout on the sidelines again though.

 

[lamafist]

Huh. I see a much tougher Denver team than a lot of both Patsfans and Broncos fans alike.

I think that, especially early in the season, perception is often based too much on the W-L record than the overall quality of play. I know that Bill Parcells was fond of saying you are what your record says you are, but while that's a useful mind-set for a coach to instill in his players, it's not really sensible when it comes to objectively evaluating a team.

If you want to know how good a team really is, you have to look at their performance at the drive, down series, and play levels. The Pats would not be significantly better team if Gostowski had made that FG against Arizona and Justin Tucker had missed his, yet the perception of them as a 4-0 team would be radically different.

While Denver's two losses may not have been quite as close, they did come against two of the best teams in the league, and it's not really accurate to say that their 2nd half comebacks were just garbage time scoring. In both cases, the Broncos pulled within one score with enough time left on the clock to get Manning the ball back if the defense could make one more stop. In both cases they managed forced their opponents to make tough conversions on 3rd and 5 to avoid going three and out.

Even more so than the Pats this season, Denver has dug itself holes by getting off to slow starts. Fortunately for Denver, this tempts the opposing teams into playing towards the Denver's strength, which has been run defense. Their pass rush has been solid, as has been their downfield coverage, but it looks like they struggle preventing YAC on short passes. Then again, having played against teams with downfield receiving threats like Mike Wallace, Andre Johnson and Roddy White, my guess is that has a lot to do with game-plan, and that they'll take a very different approach to the Pats.

Meanwhile, a lot has been made of Manning's potential loss of arm-strength, but I don't really see it. When he's got a man open deep, his passes have the same taught arc as always, and he's made enough hard throws into tight spaces to show that he's physically capable of it. When I've watched him, it's looked to me like he's more indecisive than before and isn't as confident that his receivers and he are on the same page, and this is leading to a hesitancy in some of his throws that can look like lack of arm strength. When the Broncos have gone to their no-huddle shotgun offense, and Manning gets to make more of the sight-reads for his receives, they seem to click into gear.

 

[CKG0913]

Um, Denver fan here!

I wouldn't worry too much, Pats fans. Lol.

 

[goheels22002]

BTW, what do you guys think we can realistically expect from Koppen? Was his struggles in the pre-season a function of rust or diminished physical ability? I'm surprised you guys cut him rather than keep him even as a backup. He looked good in limited action last week but Wilfork is another animal altogether - bias aside, what do you guys see as the knock on him at this point that he's no longer a Patriot?

You can expect Dan Koppen to be pushed into Peyton Manning's grill all day long. We love Dan Koppen around here for all he did for the Patriots over his career, but he does not have the strength or quickness to handle the big guys up the middle anymore. When Manning is in the shotgun, the middle of the pocket is going to collapse quickly forcing Manning to shuttle left or right closer to outside pressure and cutting down on his throwing lanes.. It will not be pleasant.

 

[Fball]

2005 is the year that New England let a lot of its weapons go (or was that 2006?) and his later wins came when Brady was rehabilitating his injured knee, so basically 3/4ths of Mannings 4 wins against Brady are questionable.
Brady has defeated Manning 7 times IIRC.

Not scared of Manning, sorry.

I am admittedly looking forward to seeing him pout on the sidelines again though.

Whoo, boy - was that ever a long knee rehab....

 

[YearbookCurfew]

Their team depends upon Manning's arm. I'm hoping that arm throws to the boys in blue this Sunday.

 

[ausbacker]

Um, Denver fan here!

I wouldn't worry too much, Pats fans. Lol.

I'm not... because I'm not strapping on some shoulder pads and a helmet against the Broncos.

 

[RWayne911]

2005 is the year that New England let a lot of its weapons go (or was that 2006?) and his later wins came when Brady was rehabilitating his injured knee, so basically 3/4ths of Mannings 4 wins against Brady are questionable.
Brady has defeated Manning 7 times IIRC.

Not scared of Manning, sorry.

I am admittedly looking forward to seeing him pout on the sidelines again though.

Wait, is this serious?

 

[Joker]

Wait, is this serious?

why so serious??????????????

 

[VJCPatriot]

And how well are we at guarding the middle of the field?

LOL. That's always been a weakness for our team, particularly with the safety play. So I don't get it when people underestimate Manning right off the bat. This will be a challenge for our secondary, no doubt about it. I'd like to see McCourty step up and force another turnover or two. If you take away Manning's receivers, then he'll be forced to dump off to the RB/TE, which I think is preferable to seeing him torch our defense deep.

BTW, what do you guys think we can realistically expect from Koppen? Was his struggles in the pre-season a function of rust or diminished physical ability? I'm surprised you guys cut him rather than keep him even as a backup. He looked good in limited action last week but Wilfork is another animal altogether - bias aside, what do you guys see as the knock on him at this point that he's no longer a Patriot?

Koppen was known for being a technician. For knowing the plays, calling the plays, and being in good position. However he gets manhandled by stronger, more physical DL. The Pats had better options as Koppen's level of play started to decline. Wilfork and Love will be a handful but I expect the Denver staff to give him additional help. He should be ok working off the double team, but don't leave him one on one or he will be exposed.

Looking forward to a very competitive game. I think way too many Pats fans are blowing off Manning. The guy is still dangerous and the Broncos young receivers have tools that will make them a challenge to cover. I'm glad you guys don't have a Dallas Clark type tight end yet though. Those guys give our defense fits. Denver should definitely target an athletic tight end in next year's draft. The athletic 'move' tight ends are becoming real weapons in this league.

 

[Kontradiction]

They look overrated to me. Peyton looks like he's lost a little bit of the zip on the ball and is having more trouble than he used to diagnosing defensive packages and seeing defensive disguises (something we know Belichick excels at). His O-Line is inconsistent. If we can control Thomas and McGahee, we should be able to slow their offense enough to win the game. Offensively, the Denver defense, which is largely the same across the board, didn't show the ability to stop our passing game. They got Tracy Porter and he and Bailey should be able to control our wide receivers, but Denver will still have trouble with the TE's. I see them lining up mostly in their nickel package to stop this which is where we'll run the ball down their throats with Ridley and Bolden.

Patriots will win this by at least 10 points.

 

[broncofanfromia]

Even more so than the Pats this season, Denver has dug itself holes by getting off to slow starts.

This will be another big part of the game for Denver - if they can make it through the first 5-10 minutes of the game and settle down, get in some type of rhythm, it will go much better for them.

During the Raiders game last week I heard one of the announcers say that the Broncos have only held the lead for something like 18% of the time. Of course that changed after the Raiders game, but damn.

 

[broncofanfromia]

Offensively, the Denver defense, which is largely the same across the board, didn't show the ability to stop our passing game. They got Tracy Porter and he and Bailey should be able to control our wide receivers, but Denver will still have trouble with the TE's. I see them lining up mostly in their nickel package to stop this which is where we'll run the ball down their throats with Ridley and Bolden.

Our defense, as Papa-pwn pointed out earlier, is not largely the same across the board.

Well, to be fair, it is a completely different defense this time around.

New DC in Jack Del Rio, Von Miller is healthy, and there are 7 new starters. 8 if Mays doesn't reclaim his starting MLB position, though I think he will.

Our starting LE, DT, NT, WOLB, RCB, FS, and SS are all different than the last time the Broncos and Patriots played.

So far, they are doing well, especially against the run. The Pats present another tough test though.

 

[Kontradiction]

Our defense, as Papa-pwn pointed out earlier, is not largely the same across the board.

Who is going to slow down Gronk and Welker? What's your Big Nickel package looking like? Will you be able to contain the run once you go into it?

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Please let Denver do the Buffalo thing and put nickel against our run game. The problem is that Denver doesn't stupidly just stick with a 4 man pass rush.

 

[Kontradiction]

Please let Denver do the Buffalo thing and put nickel against our run game. The problem is that Denver doesn't stupidly just stick with a 4 man pass rush.

Then Brady is going to carve them up over the middle should the O-Line hold up.

 

[Insaneirish]

They have a solid D, can get lots of pressure on the QB.
Manning is slowly getting better every week, and D. Thomas could give the Pats fits. Manning also likes throwing to his 2 TE's, which have killed us a bit this year. Look at what Chandler did last week. Also McGahee has been great the last couple games. Could be another high scoring game, lets just hope they don't have the ball last.

 

[Funktopus]

Please let Denver do the Buffalo thing and put nickel against our run game. The problem is that Denver doesn't stupidly just stick with a 4 man pass rush.

After last week's performance vs Buffalo's nickel, this is the most interesting thing to me this week. When it's Lloyd, Gronk, Fells, Welker and Ridley/Bolden, who will Denver have on the field?

Maybe one of the Denver guys can chime in - When Chris Harris comes in who goes out? Is it Mayes? Doesn't Mayes struggle in coverage?

 

[MagicHef]

After last week's performance vs Buffalo's nickel, this is the most interesting thing to me this week. When it's Lloyd, Gronk, Fells, Welker and Ridley/Bolden, who will Denver have on the field?

Maybe one of the Denver guys can chime in - When Chris Harris comes in who goes out? Is it Mayes? Doesn't Mayes struggle in coverage?

For the first 3 weeks, Woodyard, our WOLB, would come off in nickel. However, with Mays being suspended last week, Brooking, the MLB left and Woodyard stayed in. Woodyard has been improving in coverage, so it's anybody's guess as to who will come off when Harris comes in.

 

[Deus Irae]

Manning's looked lousy when it's mattered against the two good teams on the schedule. He looked great against a Raiders team that was down to its 465th and 466th CB. I expect to see more of Tavon "Reach" Wilson this week, because I think the Gregory mistakes are pissing BB off and BB sees that Manning's ripe for the taking if he can get decent play out of his defensive secondary.