Scenario: A surprise trade

[supafly]

My bad, I thought his cap hit was much bigger next year, of course I get my info from sports talk radio so I should know better and look it up myself. I want to keep him and even sign him beyond this year so I'm on the keep Cooks side. Just thinking of ways BB is going to create some cap space.

I certainly share your curiosity in how Belichick may create some additional cap space moving forward, as we currently have a little more than 21m dollars after the Shelton acquisition, yesterday. I think we’ll need most of that to go after our own free agents like Solder, Lewis, Amendola, etc, with a usual mid-level type of outside signing or two. Of course, some believe that it’s very important to address the Gronkowski situation. It wouldn’t hurt to open up another 5-10m or so.

As far as Cooks’ salary goes, he’s currently projected to make approx. 8m dollars this year on his fifth year option (only available to former first round picks), so you’re right that we could free up some cap space, but I don’t think it’s the kind of move that would benefit the team for the upcoming season, that’s all. Relatively speaking, I think his salary is pretty reasonable when you consider the fact that the franchise tag for WRs was about twice that amount (16.2m) and that his numbers are in the same ballpark as a lot of those big name receivers, even if he’s lacking some of their physicality and route running ability.

You’re certainly right that his salary will increase dramatically for the 2019 season, as he will be a free agent at this time, next year. It’s certainly a possibility that he may be priced out of our range come next March, and if so, his large contract from another team would likely net us a 3rd round comp pick for the 2020 draft. If another team with a lot of cap space is okay with paying him top dollar on a long term extension and is willing to part with a top round draft pick now, I can see why Belichick may entertain some offers, but we just gave up a first for him last year, so the trade compensation would have to be adequate. He seems to be a hard worker and did very well for a first year outsider, so I’m guessing that he stays for 2018. We’ll have to see how it plays out, of course.

 

[maineman209]

My bad, I thought his cap hit was much bigger next year, of course I get my info from sports talk radio so I should know better and look it up myself. I want to keep him and even sign him beyond this year so I'm on the keep Cooks side. Just thinking of ways BB is going to create some cap space.

While a number of forum posters clearly hate the idea, extending Cooks now could reduce hit 2018 cap hit by as much as $4M, probably reduces the amount of guaranteed money required and saves $2M -$3M a year, long term.

That's just the economic/financial realities of working on a limited budget, and doesn't address whether or not it's the right move.

 

[maineman209]

I certainly share your curiosity in how Belichick may create some additional cap space moving forward, as we currently have a little more than 21m dollars after the Shelton acquisition, yesterday. I think we’ll need most of that to go after our own free agents like Solder, Lewis, Amendola, etc, with a usual mid-level type of outside signing or two. Of course, some believe that it’s very important to address the Gronkowski situation. It wouldn’t hurt to open up another 5-10m or so.

As far as Cooks’ salary goes, he’s currently projected to make approx. 8m dollars this year on his fifth year option (only available to former first round picks), so you’re right that we could free up some cap space, but I don’t think it’s the kind of move that would benefit the team for the upcoming season, that’s all. Relatively speaking, I think his salary is pretty reasonable when you consider the fact that the franchise tag for WRs was about twice that amount (16.2m) and that his numbers are in the same ballpark as a lot of those big name receivers, even if he’s lacking some of their physicality and route running ability.

You’re certainly right that his salary will increase dramatically for the 2019 season, as he will be a free agent at this time, next year. It’s certainly a possibility that he may be priced out of our range come next March, and if so, his large contract from another team would likely net us a 3rd round comp pick for the 2020 draft. If another team with a lot of cap space is okay with paying him top dollar on a long term extension and is willing to part with a top round draft pick now, I can see why Belichick may entertain some offers, but we just gave up a first for him last year, so the trade compensation would have to be adequate. He seems to be a hard worker and did very well for a first year outsider, so I’m guessing that he stays for 2018. We’ll have to see how it plays out, of course.

Miguel currently has the Pats cap space listed at ~$21.2M, after the trade for Shelton. However, only about $12M-$13M of that is actually usable for FA signings/re-signings. About $2.5M-$3.0M needs to be set aside for rookie cap hits. Another $5M-$6M needs to be set aside for the start of the regular season to over injuries and NLTBE incentives.

So, the cap space number I'm working with when considering signings is $12M (playing it safe).

Without cutting anyone else besides McClellin (who I think should retire for his own sake), these are my conservative (I think) estimates for how the Pats might increase 2018 cap space:

$1.9 release McClellin
$2.2 extend Allen two years
$3.2 extend Gronk 2 years
$4.0 restructure McCourty
$6.0 restructure Brady
$3.8 extend Cooks, 5 years

That brings usable cap space up to about $33M.

The following are my estimates for the potential 2018 cap hits for the re-signings I believe are the most critical (and some of these estimates may be wishful thinking on my part):

-$11.0 re-sign Solder, 2 years
-$4.0 re-sign Fleming, 3 years
-$2.5 re-sign Burkhead, 3 years
-$1.5 re-sign M. Flowers, 3 years
-$1.5 re-sign Ebner, 2 years
-$1.8 re-sign Slater, 1 year

These would bring usable cap space back down into the $10M-$11M range.

That's not a lot, but probably enough to squeeze in signing a mid-level LB like Bradham or Casillas, acquiring a relatively cheap CB like Darby (only cheap for one more season, though), and an NFL-experienced RB to take Lewis' roster spot (though not necessarily to replace his role in the RBBC).

BTW - this all looked a lot worse before the Shelton trade, since I had the Pats signing Dontari Poe for a 2018 cap hit of around $7M. Shelton is significantly cheaper and possibly even better in the long run. Brilliant move, in that regard at least.

 

[Soliel]

I would like cooks extended to reduce that cap hit. I do not like the idea of trading him even though he is not as good as moss. He is far better than most wrs. I was pleasantly surprised by his first year and would like to see what he could do with another camp

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Trade Cooks and Sign Robinson that would be my vote.

 

[Keyser Söze]

Trade Cooks and Sign Robinson that would be my vote.

There is no way they can sign Robinson to the deal he’s going to get. Maybe we can trade for Donald while we’re at it!

 

[maineman209]

Trade Cooks and Sign Robinson that would be my vote.

Robinson:
... missed last 6 games as a rookie with a broken foot
... missed all but wk-1 of last season with a torn ACL
... 2014-2016, 42 games active
... 201 catches .. 2831 yds .. 22 TDs .. 52.5% catch rate .. 14.1 ypc

Cooks:
... missed last six games as a rookie with a broken thumb
... has not missed a game since
... 2014-2016, 42 games active
... 215 catches .. 2861 yds .. 20 TDs .. 68.3% catch rate .. 13.3 ypc

Cooks, 2017:
... 65 catches .. 1082 yds .. 7 TDs .. 57.0% catch rate .. 16.6 ypc

So, you'd prefer to trade away a healthy WR under contract with a year's experience in the Pats' offensive system, who has already established nearly 1,100 yards worth of "chemistry and trust" with Brady and McDaniels, and who will cost $8.6M in 2018 ...

- for -

a WR coming off an ACL tear with no experience in the Pats system and no established trust, and who will very likely cost a lot more, PLUS "a draft pick" which has a (being generous) 50-50 chance of working out or busting.

I'm not seeing any value to the Pats in this proposition.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Robinson:
... missed last 6 games as a rookie with a broken foot
... missed all but wk-1 of last season with a torn ACL
... 2014-2016, 42 games active
... 201 catches .. 2831 yds .. 22 TDs .. 52.5% catch rate .. 14.1 ypc

Cooks:
... missed last six games as a rookie with a broken thumb
... has not missed a game since
... 2014-2016, 42 games active
... 215 catches .. 2861 yds .. 20 TDs .. 68.3% catch rate .. 13.3 ypc

Cooks, 2017:
... 65 catches .. 1082 yds .. 7 TDs .. 57.0% catch rate .. 16.6 ypc

So, you'd prefer to trade away a healthy WR under contract with a year's experience in the Pats' offensive system, who has already established nearly 1,100 yards worth of "chemistry and trust" with Brady and McDaniels, and who will cost $8.6M in 2018 ...

- for -

a WR coming off an ACL tear with no experience in the Pats system and no established trust, and who will very likely cost a lot more, PLUS "a draft pick" which has a (being generous) 50-50 chance of working out or busting.

Yes, I would. I may be in the minority but in my opinion Cooks had the least impactful 1000+ yd season that I can remember. I didn’t see the trust and chemistry with Brady that you saw. His speed is off the charts but plays soft and did not seem as quick or elusive as I expected. He is likely to get a bigger deal in 2019 than Robinson will this year. Robinson thrived at Penn State under BOB in 2012 and 2013, so one could argue that he has more experience than Cooks in the Patriots offense.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Yes, I would. I may be in the minority but in my opinion Cooks had the least impactful 1000+ yd season that I can remember. I didn’t see the trust and chemistry with Brady that you saw. His speed is off the charts but plays soft and did not seem as quick or elusive as I expected. He is likely to get a bigger deal in 2019 than Robinson will this year. Robinson thrived at Penn State under BOB in 2012 and 2013, so one could argue that he has more experience than Cooks in the Patriots offense.

Plus look who was throwing Robinson the ball in Jacksonville
However I would bet that he is SF bound.

 

[Patsgofor4]

Plus look who was throwing Robinson the ball in Jacksonville
However I would bet that he is SF bound.

Robinson’s down year in 2016 was a direct result of Bortles having one of the least accurate season in history for a starting QB.

 

[maineman209]

Yes, I would. I may be in the minority but in my opinion Cooks had the least impactful 1000+ yd season that I can remember. I didn’t see the trust and chemistry with Brady that you saw. His speed is off the charts but plays soft and did not seem as quick or elusive as I expected. He is likely to get a bigger deal in 2019 than Robinson will this year. Robinson thrived at Penn State under BOB in 2012 and 2013, so one could argue that he has more experience than Cooks in the Patriots offense.

Except that my question isn't about which of Cooks or Robinson would ultimately and ideally work best in the Pats system and with Brady, it's about which represents the best value to the Pats for the 2018 season.

"Trade Cooks and sign Robinson" sounds really easy until you start thinking about it in the context of the 2018 season and the cap space realities.

For instance, what do you do first?
1) trade Cooks, then hope that you can sign Robinson to a contract that doesn't suck up even more limited 2018 cap space resources than Cooks is, and hope that the draft pick does you some good, then hope that Robinson turns out to be as good as (or better than) Cooks might have been for the 2018 season (and hope that Robinson's knee is good)

-- OR --

2) sign Robinson, whose cap hit alone might well delay opportunities to re-sign critical in-house UFAs, much less sign any outside FAs who might help at LB or CB, then hope that he turns out well, and hope that you can then move Cooks and his cap hit for a worthy pick before you've lost the chance to sign significant FAs at other positions

Alternatively, you could just keep Cooks.

He's healthy (or, at least, not coming off a torn ACL), he actually has posted a 1,000 yard/7TD season with Brady in the Pats system at the NFL level (regardless whether anyone thinks he looked good doing it), and he's already under contract at an affordable amount.

So, again, I'm not seeing the value to the Pats in the proposition to "trade Cooks and sign Robinson" this season.

 

[50-yard-line]

It's funny when one of my own posts, arguing the opposite, made me go "hmm," and possibly change my mind.

Regarding Cooks: he is here for about half his FA value this year. Why trade him.

So, keep him!

Or maybe not.

Cooks' cap hit is almost 8.5million.
Edelman, Hogan, Britt, Dorsett and Mitchell combined cost around 11.7million. BB doesn't value WR like most other teams - we've seen that repeatedly.

So trade Cooks for a 3rd or 4th-year decent, cost-controlled CB2 (Darby-type, though I wouldn't want Cooks on the Eagles) or a LB and maybe a 4th, save 7 million, use that to get Amendola back and still have enough left over to help with more pressing needs?

I have to admit, IF they think Dorsett and/or Britt, along with Mitchell, can fill that hole, there are worse choices.

I like Cooks, but he's an 8-million 1-year rental at this point - unless he agrees to restructure and extend, which I doubt.

 

[DW Toys]

Miguel currently has the Pats cap space listed at ~$21.2M, after the trade for Shelton. However, only about $12M-$13M of that is actually usable for FA signings/re-signings. About $2.5M-$3.0M needs to be set aside for rookie cap hits. Another $5M-$6M needs to be set aside for the start of the regular season to over injuries and NLTBE incentives.

So, the cap space number I'm working with when considering signings is $12M (playing it safe).

Without cutting anyone else besides McClellin (who I think should retire for his own sake), these are my conservative (I think) estimates for how the Pats might increase 2018 cap space:

$1.9 release McClellin
$2.2 extend Allen two years
$3.2 extend Gronk 2 years
$4.0 restructure McCourty
$6.0 restructure Brady
$3.8 extend Cooks, 5 years

That brings usable cap space up to about $33M.

The following are my estimates for the potential 2018 cap hits for the re-signings I believe are the most critical (and some of these estimates may be wishful thinking on my part):

-$11.0 re-sign Solder, 2 years
-$4.0 re-sign Fleming, 3 years
-$2.5 re-sign Burkhead, 3 years
-$1.5 re-sign M. Flowers, 3 years
-$1.5 re-sign Ebner, 2 years
-$1.8 re-sign Slater, 1 year

These would bring usable cap space back down into the $10M-$11M range.

That's not a lot, but probably enough to squeeze in signing a mid-level LB like Bradham or Casillas, acquiring a relatively cheap CB like Darby (only cheap for one more season, though), and an NFL-experienced RB to take Lewis' roster spot (though not necessarily to replace his role in the RBBC).

BTW - this all looked a lot worse before the Shelton trade, since I had the Pats signing Dontari Poe for a 2018 cap hit of around $7M. Shelton is significantly cheaper and possibly even better in the long run. Brilliant move, in that regard at least.

Excellent work Cousin!

Nice information.

I have another idea that will cause some to grit their teeth.
I have made mention that Devin McCourty was pretty mediocre and some have said, had a down year. He had 97 Tackles but I think that is a symptom of a bad front seven, especially the LB core. The Hightower loss did not help.

MCourty's CAP this year is $4mm.......but in 2019 it is $9.5mm for a player perhaps on the decline.

Trading him might work to lower CAP and pick up picks. We can't afford a 31 year old mediocre IMO (over rated in some others) at $9.5 in 2019. So it would be BB like to move him now.

Matt P and the Lions might be the answer. The have $27mm in CAP space and Matt is looking to rebuild the weak DB entity. McCourty could be almost a second coach for Matt P. to match up his formula.

How about we swap first rounders with the Lions from 31st to 20th? Plus we get a third rounder at pick #82? Just a thought.

Now you know BB can gain some picks at #20 or.........You are now in front of Buffalo who are QB hunting. Predictions are Baker Mayfield might be there? Mayfield here? Regardless, the 20th pick will be a better prospect.

Duron Harmon had four times as many picks and twice as many PD last year than McCourty. His cost is about 1/3rd of McCourty.

O.K. you don't like Harmon? Vaccaro was having an awesome year before a wrist injury. You say how is Vacarro compared to McCourty? In 4 less games he had more passes defended and INT's. McCourty was playing slot and LB besides Safety. Vaccaro can do all. He's younger and fits better in BB's heavy nickle scheme. Cost less than $10mm next year McCourty CAP for sure. He is a better play maker.

Still holes to fill?
LB Zack Brown is my F/A binkie, He has speed , size, tackling ability and can cover. He's still young and been healthier than Hightower. If he costs $8mm....get him! If he was are only pick up I would be happy. He and Shelton help.

CB?
Under the radar Ross ****rell . Smart? Duke! 6" and 197lbs so he is a bigger CB BB like now. Sub 4.4 Speed. Was a starting CB for Steelers until Hayden. Became very good starter for NYG.

"Per Sports Info Solutions charting data from Football Outsiders, ****rell has allowed the fewest yards per pass (4.7) among 89 cornerbacks who have been targeted at least 40 times. He also leads the group of cornerbacks in Success Rate (76 percent). This type of production is a bit surprising, but ****rell was a good cornerback while he started for 16 games with Pittsburgh in 2016. Among 84 corners who saw 50 or more targets last season, ****rell ranked 20th in yards allowed per pass (6.5) and 38th in Success Rate (54 percent)".

"As the Giants are set to evaluate which parts of this team should stick around under a new regime next season, ****rell has played his way into that conversation. While many other pieces of this defense have underwhelmed, he’s stepped up and impressed with every opportunity. He’ll be a free agent in the offseason after counting for just $1.1 million against the Giants’ salary cap in 2017, per Over The Cap. He shouldn’t be expensive to re-sign and he’ll only turn 27 years old in August."

He is a very smart Cornerback. Giants might try to resign before F/A.

Look at the coverage of Alshon Jeffries:



Thoughts?
DW Toys

 

[maineman209]

It's funny when one of my own posts, arguing the opposite, made me go "hmm," and possibly change my mind.

Regarding Cooks: he is here for about half his FA value this year. Why trade him.

So, keep him!

Or maybe not.

Cooks' cap hit is almost 8.5million.
Edelman, Hogan, Britt, Dorsett and Mitchell combined cost around 11.7million. BB doesn't value WR like most other teams - we've seen that repeatedly.

So trade Cooks for a 3rd or 4th-year decent, cost-controlled CB2 (Darby-type, though I wouldn't want Cooks on the Eagles) or a LB and maybe a 4th, save 7 million, use that to get Amendola back and still have enough left over to help with more pressing needs?

I have to admit, IF they think Dorsett and/or Britt, along with Mitchell, can fill that hole, there are worse choices.

I like Cooks, but he's an 8-million 1-year rental at this point - unless he agrees to restructure and extend, which I doubt.

Trading Cooks for a player the Pats actually need makes more sense than trading him for a miscellaneous draft pick and then signing an even more expensive WR who's coming off an ACL.

OTOH, Edelman is old (32) and coming off an ACL himself.
Hogan and Britt are getting up there (turning 30), and Britt has yet to prove himself in the Pats system (as far as we know).
Mitchell is young, but has his own knee issues that have been dogging him for at least a couple-three years, going back to his college days.
Dorsett is young (and speedy, and a very good blocker for a WR), but his developmental projection is uncertain.
Amendola (no spring chicken at 33) is on a beach somewhere in the Bahamas canoodling with Olivia in a bikini - (Olivia, not Danny ... eww!)

Cooks is healthy and the Pats know that he can produce well enough.

So, it's not quite as if Cooks is merely expensive icing on a fresh and solid cake.

Whether or not BB doesn't (monetarily) value WRs, it seems to make sense to hang onto Cooks for now. If all the other WRs are healthy and productive through week-8, the Pats can always trade Cooks before the deadline to an NFC team that finds itself in need at WR due to injuries. Might even get a better (more needed) player or a higher draft pick at that point, and it would still save $4M+ off the 2018 cap.

BB certainly has had some luck acquiring relatively inexpensive WRs (although Amendola wasn't at the start). If there had been another Hogan type WR available last spring, I'd guess BB might have gone that way instead of spending a 1st-rounder on Cooks. But he did, so maybe the his wellspring of cheap WRs who fit the system had dried up (temporarily).

Also, at some point soon, BB is going to need to find some younger blood at WR. "Younger" and cheap may be even more difficult to come by than under-used 28-year-olds.

 

[50-yard-line]

Trading Cooks for a player the Pats actually need makes more sense than trading him for a miscellaneous draft pick and then signing an even more expensive WR who's coming off an ACL.

Amendola (no spring chicken at 33) is on a beach somewhere in the Bahamas canoodling with Olivia in a bikini - (Olivia, not Danny ... eww!)

First point, I agree.

Second point, I disagree, with evidence. Amendola and Jules were out here in Manhattan Beach last week.

 

[supafly]

MCourty's CAP this year is $4mm.......but in 2019 it is $9.5mm for a player perhaps on the decline.

Trading him might work to lower CAP and pick up picks. We can't afford a 31 year old mediocre IMO (over rated in some others) at $9.5 in 2019. So it would be BB like to move him now.

DW Toys

Where are you getting these cap numbers for Devin McCourty at? He’s a 12m dollar cap hit this year and has a 13.5m dollar cap hit for 2019.

 

[Uptown]

Where are you getting these cap numbers for Devin McCourty at? He’s a 12m dollar cap hit this year and has a 13.5m dollar cap hit for 2019.

Well, it’s true that Safety isn’t a dire need NOW. However, let’s not forget that both D-Mac & Chung are both age 30 & have expiring contracts arising in 2019-2020. Chung’s contract is extremely mangable, but McCourty will either likely have to restructure or likely become a cap casualty. We know BB is always proactive & not reactive.

Patrick Chung

Devin McCourty

 

[supafly]

I wouldn’t be shocked to see one drafted next month.

 

[VJCPatriot]

So let's trade our #1 receiver for a 2nd or 3rd string CB who might or might not be better than Rowe or Jones. Then hope that Hogan and DA rebound to 2016 forms? Sounds like a pretty big gamble for not a lot of gain.

Dorsett or Britt better than Cooks? Let's see, one player has logged 3 1,000+ yard seasons in a row. That's more than both of those players combined. Dorsett's best season was Bethel Johnson 2.0. And Britt has shown nothing with the Pats yet, unless you are pinning your hopes on a receiver who caught 3 balls for a grand total of 23 yards for the Pats.

Seriously guys? You are being serious right now? What did Cooks do, run over your dog? He wasn't the guy who gave up 41 points in the Superbowl last time I checked.

So trade Cooks for a 3rd or 4th-year decent, cost-controlled CB2 (Darby-type, though I wouldn't want Cooks on the Eagles) or a LB and maybe a 4th, save 7 million, use that to get Amendola back and still have enough left over to help with more pressing needs?

I have to admit, IF they think Dorsett and/or Britt, along with Mitchell, can fill that hole, there are worse choices.

I like Cooks, but he's an 8-million 1-year rental at this point - unless he agrees to restructure and extend, which I doubt.

 

[rochrist]

Trading Cooks for a player the Pats actually need makes more sense than trading him for a miscellaneous draft pick and then signing an even more expensive WR who's coming off an ACL.

OTOH, Edelman is old (32) and coming off an ACL himself.
Hogan and Britt are getting up there (turning 30), and Britt has yet to prove himself in the Pats system (as far as we know).
Mitchell is young, but has his own knee issues that have been dogging him for at least a couple-three years, going back to his college days.
Dorsett is young (and speedy, and a very good blocker for a WR), but his developmental projection is uncertain.
Amendola (no spring chicken at 33) is on a beach somewhere in the Bahamas canoodling with Olivia in a bikini - (Olivia, not Danny ... eww!)

Cooks is healthy and the Pats know that he can produce well enough.

So, it's not quite as if Cooks is merely expensive icing on a fresh and solid cake.

Whether or not BB doesn't (monetarily) value WRs, it seems to make sense to hang onto Cooks for now. If all the other WRs are healthy and productive through week-8, the Pats can always trade Cooks before the deadline to an NFC team that finds itself in need at WR due to injuries. Might even get a better (more needed) player or a higher draft pick at that point, and it would still save $4M+ off the 2018 cap.

BB certainly has had some luck acquiring relatively inexpensive WRs (although Amendola wasn't at the start). If there had been another Hogan type WR available last spring, I'd guess BB might have gone that way instead of spending a 1st-rounder on Cooks. But he did, so maybe the his wellspring of cheap WRs who fit the system had dried up (temporarily).

Also, at some point soon, BB is going to need to find some younger blood at WR. "Younger" and cheap may be even more difficult to come by than under-used 28-year-olds.

There's also the thought that if Gronk doesn't come back and you get rid of Cooks it's going to get mighty crowded in there.