Rookie QB Led Offenses

[Jim Beankie]

What do the Patriots rushing TDs have to do with Mac Jones?

Lipstick on a pig.

Rookie Herbert had 9 more passing TDs 31 compared to Jones 22.
3 fewer INTs 10 compared to Jones 13
5 rushing TDs where Jones had 0
2 more Game Winning Drives 3 compare to Jones 1.
1 more fumble 8 compared to Jones 7.

In his rookie season Herbert scored 36 TDs himself. Everyone was impressed with Herberts rookie season and this season was no different. Trying to make Jones look like Herbert is like trying to make Papa Johns cardboard pizza look like it came form the Boston's north end.

The score % (for drives) is significantly higher for the Patriots in 2021. That's a pretty big stat that can't be overlooked. Not sure the fact that the Patriots' only having an avg of 14yds more per game (or 1 more rushing 1st down per game) than the 2020 Chargers would explain that huge discrepancy. Starting position (26.6 LaC vs 31.6 NE) is a factor, though.

Also, sorry for the basic question here as I don't really know - how much responsibility does Mac (or any NFL QB) have for setting up the line for rushing plays?

 

[Jim Beankie]

the telling stat

2020 red zone attempts: 48, 26 rz tds, 54.2%
2021 red zone attempts: 63, 39 rz tds, 61.9%

a net positive gain of 15 red zone appearances, and 13 more tds, better conversion rate... the offense was moving the ball significantly better than the year before... and wasn't so dependent on a single player to do so, with 12 of the 48 2020 tds coming from newton rushes... Much better balanced offense...

Gotta adjust for the 17 / 16 game difference, though. Your point's still valid, nonetheless.

 

[Pape]

Gotta adjust for the 17 / 16 game difference, though. Your point's still valid, nonetheless.

just eliminate the cowboys game? or the first game? or the last game of the season? could just break it down into percentages per game, in both 2020 and 2021 i suppose... but i'm not that interested in that level of detail at this point...

 

[DropKickFlutie]

just eliminate the cowboys game? or the first game? or the last game of the season? could just break it down into percentages per game, in both 2020 and 2021 i suppose... but i'm not that interested in that level of detail at this point...

It's not worth even comparing. Completely different. 2020 had NKeal Harry as the worst starting WR in the league and also the TEs were Izzo and LaCosse.

.

 

[Ring 6]

What do the Patriots rushing TDs have to do with Mac Jones?

Lipstick on a pig.

Rookie Herbert had 9 more passing TDs 31 compared to Jones 22.
3 fewer INTs 10 compared to Jones 13
5 rushing TDs where Jones had 0
2 more Game Winning Drives 3 compare to Jones 1.
1 more fumble 8 compared to Jones 7.

In his rookie season Herbert scored 36 TDs himself. Everyone was impressed with Herberts rookie season and this season was no different. Trying to make Jones look like Herbert is like trying to make Papa Johns cardboard pizza look like it came form the Boston's north end.

It’s about the Patriot offense. The 2021 Patriot offense performed better than the 2020 Charger offense.

 

[jdlboot14]

Why can't Patriot fans be excited to find a promising rookie QB that started the entire year??
Will they spend the rest of their lives bemoaning the fact Brady left, or didn't remain 30 years old his whole life??
It's so simple - Mac isn't Brady. But he's shown he can be good, and we'll enjoy the ride to see how good as the team progresses.
We're not the Jags, Jets or Browns - it will get better!

 

[Toofy]

Brady was so out-of-worldly for so many years, that many younger fans don’t remember cheering for an unsuccessful team. This unprecedented success from 2001-2018 (and arguably 2019, 12-4) has slanted opinions and set unrealistic expectations.

Mac was amazing in year 1. If he improves even a little bit each year (seems like a fast learner, a dedicated pro, an intense competitor), by year 3 there might be the makings of something special here. Best ever special ? No. Capable of winning a title special ? Maybe.

Very, very satisfied with the year one output from the rookie QB. Looking forward to seeing how his career plays out. Bullish on this athlete.

Agreed. If this were any other fan base they would be salivating at the prospect of Mac based on this year's results.

Yes we got lucky with injuries to other teams , but Mac did what he was supposed to do. You can never come back when you don't have difference makers.

All world pro Aaron Rodgers couldn't pass in the second half despite having Aaron Jones and davante . So we can imagine Mac state besides the fact that he is not yet 100% mentally and physically conditioned to NFL.

I think we have hope. Bill just needs to bite the bullet and go with the younger players. Even if we don't make playoff we will be better served for 2023 . Bill is known to cut people 1 year in advance before their dropoff, this year was a anomaly.

Jonnu and agholor playing at 70-80% of their potential will help us scale up. Let's just be hopeful. If they fail, we get a better draft position and maybe better playmakers on 2023.

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Why can't Patriot fans be excited to find a promising rookie QB that started the entire year??
Will they spend the rest of their lives bemoaning the fact Brady left, or didn't remain 30 years old his whole life??
It's so simple - Mac isn't Brady. But he's shown he can be good, and we'll enjoy the ride to see how good as the team progresses.
We're not the Jags, Jets or Browns - it will get better!

Seems it's not allowed for some here...
I'm looking FORWARD, and Happy that we have "Weak Armed Mac" in the fold....at cheap$ BTW.

 

[jmt57]

The inconsistency of the 2021 New England Patriots offense has already been discussed in other threads about the Pats offense. The general sentiment is that the offense was not as good as the team's overall statistical rankings.

Where I do see encouragement is how other recent rookie quarterbacks progressed in Year Two and beyond.

Josh Allen Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Josh Allen. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	4QC	GWD	AV
2018	22	BUF	QB	17	12	11	5-6-0	169	320	52.8	2074	10	3.1	12	3.8	89	75	6.5	5.4	12.3	172.8	67.9	49.8	28	213	8	5.35	4.37	2	3	6
2019	23	BUF	QB	17	16	16	10-6-0	271	461	58.8	3089	20	4.3	9	2	146	53	6.7	6.7	11.4	193.1	85.3	49.4	38	237	7.6	5.72	5.71	4	5	11
2020*	24	BUF	QB	17	16	16	13-3-0	396	572	69.2	4544	37	6.5	10	1.7	228	55	7.9	8.5	11.5	284.0	107.2	76.6	26	159	4.3	7.33	7.82	2	3	18
2021	25	BUF	QB	17	17	17	11-6-0	409	646	63.3	4407	36	5.6	15	2.3	234	61	6.8	6.9	10.8	259.2	92.2	60.7	26	164	3.9	6.31	6.38			19

Joe Burrow Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Joe Burrow. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	4QC	GWD	AV
2020	24	CIN	QB	9	10	10	2-7-1	264	404	65.3	2688	13	3.2	5	1.2	150	67	6.7	6.7	10.2	268.8	89.8	48.5	32	231	7.3	5.64	5.72			7
2021	25	CIN	QB	9	16	16	10-6-0	366	520	70.4	4611	34	6.5	14	2.7	202	82	8.9	9.0	12.6	288.2	108.3	54.4	51	370	8.9	7.43	7.51	2	3	15

Justin Herbert Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Justin Herbert. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	4QC	GWD	AV
2020	22	LAC	QB	10	15	15	6-9-0	396	595	66.6	4336	31	5.2	10	1.7	216	72	7.3	7.6	10.9	289.1	98.3	62.6	32	218	5.1	6.57	6.84	1	3	13
2021*	23	LAC	QB	10	17	17	9-8-0	443	672	65.9	5014	38	5.7	15	2.2	256	72	7.5	7.6	11.3	294.9	97.7	66.0	31	214	4.4	6.83	6.95	5	5	18

That's not to say that all young starting quarterbacks unconditionally progress, though in the case below he was injured most of 2021.

Baker Mayfield Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Baker Mayfield. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	4QC	GWD	AV
2018	23	CLE	QB	6	14	13	6-7-0	310	486	63.8	3725	27	5.6	14	2.9	171	71	7.7	7.5	12.0	266.1	93.7	51.2	25	173	4.9	6.95	6.77	3	4	10
2019	24	CLE	QB	6	16	16	6-10-0	317	534	59.4	3827	22	4.1	21	3.9	179	89	7.2	6.2	12.1	239.2	78.8	54.4	40	285	7	6.17	5.29	1	1	11
2020	25	CLE	QB	6	16	16	11-5-0	305	486	62.8	3563	26	5.3	8	1.6	188	75	7.3	7.7	11.7	222.7	95.9	65.5	26	162	5.1	6.64	6.96	2	2	14
2021	26	CLE	QB	6	14	14	6-8-0	253	418	60.5	3010	17	4.1	13	3.1	143	71	7.2	6.6	11.9	215.0	83.1	35.3	43	269	9.3	5.95	5.41			10

Murray is a different style of quarterback than Mac, but like the first two examples above the win-loss trajectory is encouraging.

Kyler Murray Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Kyler Murray. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	Sk%	NY/A	ANY/A	4QC	GWD	AV
2019	22	ARI	QB	1	16	16	5-10-1	349	542	64.4	3722	20	3.7	12	2.2	173	88	6.9	6.6	10.7	232.6	87.4	57.7	48	309	8.1	5.78	5.55	1	2	14
2020*	23	ARI	QB	1	16	16	8-8-0	375	558	67.2	3971	26	4.7	12	2.2	205	80	7.1	7.1	10.6	248.2	94.3	61.9	27	176	4.6	6.49	6.45	3	4	16
2021*	24	ARI	QB	1	14	14	9-5-0	333	481	69.2	3787	24	5	10	2.1	172	77	7.9	7.9	11.4	270.5	100.6	56.8	31	286	6.1	6.84	6.90	1	1	16

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Jones exceeded all my expectations for a rookie qb! He was an absolute machine and we would not have made the playoffs without him.

At the end of the day, all qb’s should be judged on wins and losses.

 

[Kasmir]

Jones exceeded all my expectations for a rookie qb! He was an absolute machine and we would not have made the playoffs without him.

At the end of the day, all qb’s should be judged on wins and losses.

During the win streak, according to NextGen stats, Mac had the highest EPA (Expected Points per Play) in the league and the 5th highest CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation). He was playing at an elite level as a rookie.

During his subsequent collapse, he declined to slightly below average in CPOE and slightly above average in EPA, i.e. he became mediocre.

The question then is, what led to his collapse, and what level will he recover to.

rbsdm.com/stats

 

[PatsFan2]

Mac had some guys on Offense who underachieved like Smith and Agholor based on contracts: so things could have been even better.

 

[venecol]

Teams that spent the most during FAcy went on to win an avg of 5.4 more games that season, but regressed to 5.6 more losses the following season. So who knows what will happen.

I say shore up the D during FAcy and the draft to stop the run and limit pass plays by the current AFC contenders. That alone should help the O somewhat even if they regress a bit.

 

[Ring 6]

During the win streak, according to NextGen stats, Mac had the highest EPA (Expected Points per Play) in the league and the 5th highest CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation). He was playing at an elite level as a rookie.

During his subsequent collapse, he declined to slightly below average in CPOE and slightly above average in EPA, i.e. he became mediocre.

The question then is, what led to his collapse, and what level will he recover to.

rbsdm.com/stats

He didn’t collapse. He had one bad game. The rest was very much like the rest of the season.

 

[50-yard-line]

Teams that spent the most during FAcy went on to win an avg of 5.4 more games that season, but regressed to 5.6 more losses the following season. So who knows what will happen.

I say shore up the D during FAcy and the draft to stop the run and limit pass plays by the current AFC contenders. That alone should help the O somewhat even if they regress a bit.

That stat is useless unless you know where they started. It's a lot easier to add 5 wins to a 2-14 season than to a 7-9 season.

The former could be just because you're playing easier divisions, you're in the chase a little longer and so playing harder to the end, or finally added talent to a wasteland typically the case).

The latter would mean going from mediocre to elite.

 

[crawhammer]

Mac Jones...

7 games against teams with a losing record
7 wins
0 losses
35 P/G
12 passing TDs
3 INTs

11 games against teams with a winning record
3 wins
8 losses
21 P/G
13 passing TDs
12 INTs

Jones & co beat up on the bad teams. He and they got exposed a bit against the better competition.

Whatever they were... Allen, Herbert, Burrow, etc are elite young quarterbacks now. You can add Mahomes, Jackson and Watson to that group. I'm not saying it won't happen BUT it's going to be a lot to ask of Jones to elevate his play to the level of these other quarterbacks.

The closest comp I suppose is Burrow but he improved significantly from season one to season two, with an o-line that wasn't doing him any favors, although Cincinnati did draft an all-pro receiver to fill out what's an A+ receiver group at this point.

I have no confidence the Patriots can do it through the draft so they'll need to bring in a 1A receiver through free agency. Adams and Godwin are probably unrealistic so I think they should take a run at Allen Robinson. Or Mike Williams.

 

[*ChungFu*]

Whether we want Mac to hand off to RBs, dink and dunk, go down field, or a combination of all three; he needs a better line to progress. Improve the line and our receivers, running backs, and QB will improve.

 

[upstater]

Not a strong enough correlation to me.

to play a rookie qb, generally speaking, you had to have played poorly enough in seasons prior to even get a guy at the level that you do via draft. (Of course the exception is if you trade for that spot)

mind you we had a depleted team with poor qb play last year, resulting in what I believe was an illusionary 7-9 record and 15 pick.

That same team with Brady wins two more, with the covid opt outs we win two more. (Yes it hit us harder than most teams, accept this fact)

our line was pressured the most, and they had some of the best protection. Can we praise them some?

that also speaks to the running game doing well.

can we wait till halfway through year three to coronate Mac?

6 of the teams above had comparable seasons to the Patriots the prior year. They weren’t all bad. Chargers, Steelers, Cowboys, Seahawks, etc. even the Colts were a playoff team prior to their deliberate tanking.

 

[upstater]

Bingo.

Mac Jones should be judged on how he performs against his division and peers. Other things too. Like has he improved arm strength? What's his overall football IQ?

But Brady is an outlier. An exception to everything.

It's great for Brady. But the reality is it's hard to get to--and win--a SB. Even once. The parity is crazy. You've got junk like the Jags beating Buffalo. That's football. That's reality. There isn't alot separating the best from the worst.

There will never be another Tom Brady.

I think most Pats fans realize that.

Brees and Peyton and Brady were the 3 greats of the last 20 years. They were not considered to have great arm strength. None of the 3. Along with Montana and Marino, they were the 5 guys who played that position like coaches, knowing everything that was going on. Only Marino of the 5 had a strong arm.

 

[crawhammer]

Whether we want Mac to hand off to RBs, dink and dunk, go down field, or a combination of all three; he needs a better line to progress. Improve the line and our receivers, running backs, and QB will improve.

Is that all?? Seriously though, you forgot about replacing McDaniels, who probably had a bigger influence on Jones than anyone in year one.

I think the o-line was pretty good this season and their running game was very good. They had the second most rushing TDs in the league whereas they were 15th in passing TDs. They really need a dependable red zone wideout.

Brees and Peyton and Brady were the 3 greats of the last 20 years. They were not considered to have great arm strength. None of the 3. Along with Montana and Marino, they were the 5 guys who played that position like coaches, knowing everything that was going on. Only Marino of the 5 had a strong arm.

I'm pretty sure Brady doesn't belong on any list questioning arm strength.

Peyton only had issues with arm strength after his neck problems. After multiple surgeries, and some HGH, he was able to revive his career in Denver. Until his arm gave out for good during the '15 season.

Brees didn't have great arm strength but obviously still had an exceptional career (with a bigtime assist to Sean Payton).