Rob Gronkowski moves to Florida

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

If I am reading that correctly, even more reason to the point you made.

No Income tax, light (middle of the road) for vehicle/excise/highway use tax and they exempt SocSec and Pensions from tax as well. Not sure what they do for property tax, but without knowing, that would explain the attractiveness to someone on a fixed (retirement) income.

Property tax is average- 26th
2019’s Property Taxes by State

The biggest higher expense is property insurance, due to hurricane risk. Yearly Insurance rates are sometimes close to yearly property taxes!

 

[Drewski]

Property tax is average- 26th
2019’s Property Taxes by State

The biggest higher expense is property insurance, due to hurricane risk. Yearly Insurance rates are sometimes close to yearly property taxes!

Good to know. A little better than they are here, which was miles ahead of what we left in MA (which has obvious trade offs)

And yes. We aren't smashed by insurance rates here in the Triangle. I am sure Eastern NC is; especially down by Wilmington.

 

[fourhour]

Geez, a guy retires to Florida and this board lights up with tax experts!

 

[reflexblue]

Some people still believe that Rob Gronkowski is not retired so they go to extremes to prove that he is coming back. That is their opinion and they are entitled to it.

Yeah, maybe he wants to play for miami.

 

[XLIX]

When you talk about percentages, I think they're projections perhaps, but not predictions. Predictions are binary. They happen or they don't.

eh, this is just a sematic argument. I use the word "prediction" because I work heavily with Predictive Models in my job. While I do not work with weather, I have little doubt that the weatherman is using modern day predictive models when he generates his forecast and comes up with his "40% chance of rain" statement.

 

[maust]

I, for one, would like to see the (ahem) logic that was applied by someone with no personal knowledge of Gronkowski's inclinations or decision making process as regards a potential return to decide there was a 20% chance of it. No doubt that particular predictive model was fascinating.

 

[Tony2046]

Someone will post "There is no proof that he actually moved there" or "this could be an investment property" or some other similar silly obfuscation in 3...2...1...

"Obfuscation "

Purposely?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

eh, this is just a sematic argument. I use the word "prediction" because I work heavily with Predictive Models in my job. While I do not work with weather, I have little doubt that the weatherman is using modern day predictive models when he generates his forecast and comes up with his "40% chance of rain" statement.

I don't either. I don't even know enough about what's out there in terms of terminology to know whether "predictive model" is a term of art. I guess so, since you capitalized the words.

What I'm thinking of is, for example, a set of variables that have a chance to change in one way or another at each point in a random walk. After the designated number of steps is over, you figure out how many scenarios come out in each result.

So the weather forecaster could have a 40% chance of rain, because after running the numbers 10,000 times, about 4,000 times it rained. Sometimes it rained an inch. Sometimes 1/10 of an inch. Sometimes, let's say very rarely, 10 inches of rain. Add up all the times it rained out of 10,000 runs, and you get "a 40% chance of rain."

With that many runs, one of them is probably very close to a prediction, but there's no reason to believe that the same sub-model would work on the next day's modeling. So none of the runs, nor the whole projection exercise, is a prediction. I mean, it's not a distinction without a difference exactly, but at the same time, I know it's an academic exercise for most people (should I say "99% of people"?)

But just out of curiosity... are we thinking of the same thing? Is this now called a "predictive model"? (I'm not around this stuff anymore, but I used to be all the time.)

 

[PatsFanInVa]

"Obfuscation "

Purposely?

Nicely done

(His answer should be, yes, porpoisely.)

 

[XLIX]

I don't either. I don't even know enough about what's out there in terms of terminology to know whether "predictive model" is a term of art. I guess so, since you capitalized the words.

What I'm thinking of is, for example, a set of variables that have a chance to change in one way or another at each point in a random walk. After the designated number of steps is over, you figure out how many scenarios come out in each result.

So the weather forecaster could have a 40% chance of rain, because after running the numbers 10,000 times, about 4,000 times it rained. Sometimes it rained an inch. Sometimes 1/10 of an inch. Sometimes, let's say very rarely, 10 inches of rain. Add up all the times it rained out of 10,000 runs, and you get "a 40% chance of rain."

With that many runs, one of them is probably very close to a prediction, but there's no reason to believe that the same sub-model would work on the next day's modeling. So none of the runs, nor the whole projection exercise, is a prediction. I mean, it's not a distinction without a difference exactly, but at the same time, I know it's an academic exercise for most people (should I say "99% of people"?)

But just out of curiosity... are we thinking of the same thing? Is this now called a "predictive model"? (I'm not around this stuff anymore, but I used to be all the time.)

What you described sure sounds to me like a Monte Carlo Simulation, where you run a simulation many times to see how many times you get such-and-such as a result. Your above simulation would give, for example, an output of:

40% chance of rain
39% chance of >= 1/10 of an inch of rain
5% chance of >= 1 inch of rain
0.0001% chance of >= 10 inches of rain

Yes, I would say such a simulation falls under the blanket of Predictive Analytics. The model would probably be used again the next day to project/predict Friday's chances of rain. Of course, please note that while I say the model could be used again, the input variables would certainly be different. Things like humidity, barometric pressure, an approaching front, etc, etc, would create different results for the next day.

 

[Triumph]

If I am reading that correctly, even more reason to the point you made.

No Income tax, light (middle of the road) for vehicle/excise/highway use tax and they exempt SocSec and Pensions from tax as well. Not sure what they do for property tax, but without knowing, that would explain the attractiveness to someone on a fixed (retirement) income.

Yup, when Gronk retires after this season.

 

[Drewski]

Geez, a guy retires to Florida and this board lights up with tax experts!

Well we can’t all be football experts

 

[Triumph]

Geez, a guy retires to Florida and this board lights up with tax experts!

Its basic common knowledge that Florida is a low tax state.

Thats why its growing and attracting business like Texas.

 

[Triumph]

Owning a condo in Florida is not going to prevent Gronk from returning to the Pats in the least.

IIRC, isnt there a workout facility that caters to athletes down there?

 

[Triumph]

If I am reading that correctly, even more reason to the point you made.

No Income tax, light (middle of the road) for vehicle/excise/highway use tax and they exempt SocSec and Pensions from tax as well. Not sure what they do for property tax, but without knowing, that would explain the attractiveness to someone on a fixed (retirement) income.

Not that Gronk needs to be concerned, but If Im not mistaken, youre also insulated from certain lawsuits if your residence is in Florida.

OJ Simpson moved there after he won his court case for that very reason.

 

[Boomer B]

He has not touched any of his football earnings (a fact that has been reported multipole times), he only spent money he made on his endorsements (and not all of that either). So even if he paid cash for his new condo, he still has over $50 million in the bank. Which at 1% interest (surely he is making more than that) that would be $500,000 a year. Let's say he has made modest investments and his portfolio is producing at 7% that would be $3,500,000 a year.

He earned $53m in his career, but you haven’t calculated that he had to pay taxes on those earnings. He probably has in the range of $30m of his NFL earnings.

 

[Drewski]

Not that Gronk needs to be concerned, but If Im not mistaken, youre also insulated from certain lawsuits if your residence is in Florida.

OJ Simpson moved there after he won his court case for that very reason.

They call them Homestead protections (or something there about).

You are correct

 

[XLIX]

Not that Gronk needs to be concerned, but If Im not mistaken, youre also insulated from certain lawsuits if your residence is in Florida.

OJ Simpson moved there after he won his court case for that very reason.

I believe what Florida does is they protect your assets from seizure. So you can still sue someone (like Ron Goldman’s father did) and you can still win a judgment (like Ron Goldman’s father did) but good luck collecting.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Owning a condo in Florida is not going to prevent Gronk from returning to the Pats in the least.

IIRC, isnt there a workout facility that caters to athletes down there?

No it will not legally prevent him from rejoining the team. That is true.

He sold his home in MA and bought another one in FL. (A few people have already correctly pointed out that he has resources and can buy another home at any time.) He has a track record for being prudent with his money so why would he make his life so inconvenient?

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I, for one, would like to see the (ahem) logic that was applied by someone with no personal knowledge of Gronkowski's inclinations or decision making process as regards a potential return to decide there was a 20% chance of it. No doubt that particular predictive model was fascinating.

BINGO

It looks to me as though this thread has been edited and some of the more heated posts were deleted. That is fine so thank you to the moderator or whoever requested the change.

Back to the topic. Where does the measurable and testable data come from to determine that there is a 20% (or whatever number) chance that Rob returns to the Patriots? It is of course someone's opinion.

I officially apologize to the members that are writing about statistical analysis. You are entitled to your opinion.

My Opinion is that he will not come back. If he does come back, that will mean that I am 100% wrong and I will be willing to admit it.


PS: None of this is about liking or disliking Rob Gronkowksi.