Rex Burkhead [UPDATE: ACL not believed to be torn!]

[The Brandon Five]

In terms of man games lost, they have to be in the top 5

#1 before this week. Haven't seen updated numbers for injuries this week.

 

[RobertWeathers]

#1 before this week. Haven't seen updated numbers for injuries this week.

Thanks. I don't follow the distinction between us and the Ratbirds and the 49ers?

 

[The Brandon Five]

Thanks. I don't follow the distinction between us and the Ratbirds and the 49ers?

As far as I understand it there are two measures: man-games lost and then man-games lost weighted by the value of the player.

 

[RobertWeathers]

As far as I understand it, There are two measures: man-games lost and then man-games lost weighted by the value of the player.

Ok. I'm not too informed on the second level stats but in reading it seems the higher "AV" is the better the player.

Got it.

 

[maineman209]

I think White is still the primary 3rd down back. 20 snaps yesterday for 2 receptions for 8 yards. Just not producing. It looks like Burkhead or Lewis could step into that role. Of course it all changes now with Burkhead out, and White was also injured although he returned.

And wk-13 @BUF, White had more catches for more yards than Burkhead or Cooks. And Lewis had zero tgts for the 4th game this season that. Last week, @Mia, White had 35 snaps, matching the combined total for Lewis and Burkhead that game (White stays in for blitz pickup a lot).

The thing about totes, tgts and snaps is that they're zero-sum games. If Player A gets more of something, Player B get less. Add to that the fact that McD attacks with different weapons in different ways from game-to-game, and there are going to be players who see their opportunities and production vary.

From Week-7 (ATL) through Week-12 (the first MIA game), as the Burkhead-Lewis show kicked into high gear, White's snap counts and, consequently, "production" declined. Shocker.

And yet, since wk-7, RB receiving yds are:
- Burkhead = 205
- White = 177
- Lewis = 108 (His tgts/catches per game and ypc this season are down from even last season, when he wasn't 100%).

In spite of White's reduced opportunities for a significant stretch this season ...
... his avg rushing attempts per game are still higher than last season
... he passed his 2016 total yards rushing two games ago
... his catches per game avg is up over last season, and his catch rate is way up
... he's 4th in receptions/game for the season, behind only Gronk, Cooks & 'Dola
... his ypc, ypg and YAC% are all down (slightly) - shorter passes, fewer screen plays

So, "extraordinary" decline in productivity? "Just not producing"?

 

[BlueThunder]

The man games lost by injured/IR'd players just proves the Patriots have the deepest roster and can do more with less....

 

[maineman209]

Ok. I'm not too informed on the second level stats but in reading it seems the higher "AV" is the better the player.

Got it.

If that's the same "AV" that's used on Pro-Football-Reference, the components of that are somewhat arbitrary and suspect, IMHO.

 

[Mack Herron]

And wk-13 @BUF, White had more catches for more yards than Burkhead or Cooks. And Lewis had zero tgts for the 4th game this season that. Last week, @Mia, White had 35 snaps, matching the combined total for Lewis and Burkhead that game (White stays in for blitz pickup a lot).

The thing about totes, tgts and snaps is that they're zero-sum games. If Player A gets more of something, Player B get less. Add to that the fact that McD attacks with different weapons in different ways from game-to-game, and there are going to be players who see their opportunities and production vary.

From Week-7 (ATL) through Week-12 (the first MIA game), as the Burkhead-Lewis show kicked into high gear, White's snap counts and, consequently, "production" declined. Shocker.

And yet, since wk-7, RB receiving yds are:
- Burkhead = 205
- White = 177
- Lewis = 108 (His tgts/catches per game and ypc this season are down from even last season, when he wasn't 100%).

In spite of White's reduced opportunities for a significant stretch this season ...
... his avg rushing attempts per game are still higher than last season
... he passed his 2016 total yards rushing two games ago
... his catches per game avg is up over last season, and his catch rate is way up
... he's 4th in receptions/game for the season, behind only Gronk, Cooks & 'Dola
... his ypc, ypg and YAC% are all down (slightly) - shorter passes, fewer screen plays

So, "extraordinary" decline in productivity? "Just not producing"?

Since the Chargers game, his production or efficiency in terms of yards per touch and conversions per touch seem to have declined. Just my impression. True?

 

[maineman209]

Since the Chargers game, his production or efficiency in terms of yards per touch and conversions per touch seem to have declined. Just my impression. True?

Beginning immediately after the Chargers game (when White went off - again - for 85 receiving yards on five catches) or, perhaps more pertinently, after the BYE that followed that game, a lot had changed.

While Burkhead and Lewis have averaged about 10 more snaps per game between the two of them since the BYE, White's average snaps/game have been reduced by the same amount - and Gillislee has been inactive. White' touches/snap have also been down significantly, as well as his (yes) yds/touch (OTOH, he's also produced 2 TDs). For most, but not all, of that six-game snapshot.

To me, that indicates that the offense, at least wrt RBs, was reconfigured substantially during the BYE week and White's role has also changed substantially. For one thing, he's apparently been staying in the backfield on a higher percentage of his snaps.

I just don't find any of this extraordinary or alarming, and I'm not sure why I should. My guess is that White simply hasn't been seeing many (if any) packaged plays designed for him (except, maybe against Buffalo), and that most of his recent touches have been one-offs, more or less.

Seems to me that, with Burkhead now likely out for a couple of games, White's role may (or may not) change again. If it changes, we'll see what happens to his productivity numbers. Gillislee seems certain to be active, so Lewis' role may (or may not) change substantially, too.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think White is still the primary 3rd down back. 20 snaps yesterday for 2 receptions for 8 yards. Just not producing. It looks like Burkhead or Lewis could step into that role. Of course it all changes now with Burkhead out, and White was also injured although he returned.

I keep saying this, but I think it's important to keep pointing it out.

Gillislee - Blount replacement, with minimal receiving impact
Lewis - Best RB, effective in both the run and pass game, though not the best pass protect guy
White - 3dRB, with minimal running impact
Burkhead - Swiss army RB

Lewis is a passing and running threat, as is Burkhead.
Gillislee is all about the run
White is all about the pass

If you're splitting snaps more than playing guys together, it makes more sense to be using a healthy Burkhead and Lewis more than the other two players, because they're better dual threats.

 

[Mack Herron]

Beginning immediately after the Chargers game (when White went off - again - for 85 receiving yards on five catches) or, perhaps more pertinently, after the BYE that followed that game, a lot had changed.

While Burkhead and Lewis have averaged about 10 more snaps per game between the two of them since the BYE, White's average snaps/game have been reduced by the same amount - and Gillislee has been inactive. White' touches/snap have also been down significantly, as well as his (yes) yds/touch (OTOH, he's also produced 2 TDs). For most, but not all, of that six-game snapshot.

To me, that indicates that the offense, at least wrt RBs, was reconfigured substantially during the BYE week and White's role has also changed substantially. For one thing, he's apparently been staying in the backfield on a higher percentage of his snaps.

I just don't find any of this extraordinary or alarming, and I'm not sure why I should. My guess is that White simply hasn't been seeing many (if any) packaged plays designed for him (except, maybe against Buffalo), and that most of his recent touches have been one-offs, more or less.

Seems to me that, with Burkhead now likely out for a couple of games, White's role may (or may not) change again. If it changes, we'll see what happens to his productivity numbers. Gillislee seems certain to be active, so Lewis' role may (or may not) change substantially, too.

I am not saying there has been anything alarming, but I noticed that White was a dual threat running and receiving and both seem to have diminished. I would like to know if what I am saying is borne out. I could be wrong. Perhaps someone can find his third down stats and see what has been happening. I understand he is used less on first and second downs, but I think he takes nearly all the 3rd downs but converts fewer. It is a hypothesis.

 

[Mack Herron]

I keep saying this, but I think it's important to keep pointing it out.

Gillislee - Blount replacement, with minimal receiving impact
Lewis - Best RB, effective in both the run and pass game, though not the best pass protect guy
White - 3dRB, with minimal running impact
Burkhead - Swiss army RB

Lewis is a passing and running threat, as is Burkhead.
Gillislee is all about the run
White is all about the pass

If you're splitting snaps more than playing guys together, it makes more sense to be using a healthy Burkhead and Lewis more than the other two players, because they're better dual threats.

Agree with this, and I'd like to see Lewis and Burkhead take 3rd downs as well. But my impression is that White gets those opportunities and I'm not sure I understand why. Specifically, my impression is that both Burkhead and Lewis have been more effective running and receiving. I could certainly be wrong.

 

[Deus Irae]

Agree with this, and I'd like to see Lewis and Burkhead take 3rd downs as well. But my impression is that White gets those opportunities and I'm not sure I understand why. Specifically, my impression is that both Burkhead and Lewis have been more effective running and receiving. I could certainly be wrong.

White's snap count numbers have dropped pretty much according to the presence of Burkhead, and the numbers show that Lewis' re-emergence as being close to the old Lewis has also impacted it.

James White 2017 Fantasy Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Rex Burkhead 2017 Fantasy Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
Dion Lewis 2017 Fantasy Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Mike Gillislee 2017 Fantasy Stats | Pro-Football-Reference.com
White's snap counts

43
30
31
43
35
29 (10/15)

23 (10/22)
20
11
17
18
28
35
20

10/15 is where Lewis started getting more snaps (Jumped from 18 to 29, and has been mostly in the mid 20's since)
10/22 is where Burkhead came back from injury
10/15 Gillislee's snaps dropped from 24 to 13
10/29 3rd straight game with just 13 snaps, this would be the last time he's been active

So, basically, while not being a perfect 1:1, Lewis has taken Gillislee's snaps and put him on the bench, and Burkhead has cut into White's.

 

[Ring 6]

White is just not getting playing time. When he’s in he does his job well. That’s a great backup to have. The same with Gilly. I don’t think he’s anything great but we could use him now.

I don’t think his snaps are down. He just isn’t producing.

 

[patchick]

I don’t think his snaps are down. He just isn’t producing.

Over the first 6 games of the season, White averaged 48% of offensive snaps. Since then, he's averaged 32% of snaps.

 

[Ring 6]

Over the first 6 games of the season, White averaged 48% of offensive snaps. Since then, he's averaged 32% of snaps.

Some of that is situational. We were behind and throwing a lot more in the first 6 games.
But his production has dropped more than his snaps. First 6 5.5 rec per game, since 2.6. So his snaps are 67% of what they were but his receptions only 47%.
Not sure what’s up but something is.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I keep saying this, but I think it's important to keep pointing it out.

Gillislee - Blount replacement, with minimal receiving impact
Lewis - Best RB, effective in both the run and pass game, though not the best pass protect guy
White - 3dRB, with minimal running impact
Burkhead - Swiss army RB

Lewis is a passing and running threat, as is Burkhead.
Gillislee is all about the run
White is all about the pass

If you're splitting snaps more than playing guys together, it makes more sense to be using a healthy Burkhead and Lewis more than the other two players, because they're better dual threats.

Lewis can be a receiver, no doubt, but he isn't being used for pass catching much at all. Since around Burk came back and the L&B tandem relegated Gill to the inactive squad, excepting the Miami debacle Lewis has 9 catches on 11 targets for 53 yards in the last 8 games (he did have 5 for 50 in Miami). In those same games he's had 103 carries for 558 (in Miami he had only 5 carries for 17 yards).
His production running the ball speaks for itself and that sent Gill, and I do remember you being the first to point out several weeks ago, to the inactive squad.

But assuming Burk is out, the role of primarily carrying the ball has to be taken over, to some degree, by Gill while Lewis will now fill more of the utility knife position. Personally I'm ok with that on one level. Get Lewis a pass with some space/ability to get moving forward with some momentum? He can be a monster threat to run by/around guys. But I don't blame JM/BB for using him overwhelmingly as a runner -- the numbers speak for themselves. Where I'm not ok with it on the other level is the harsh reality that Gill is unlikely to reproduce the running production that Lewis is currently providing.
Interesting factoid: Lewis had over 40 carries in a game in college. Not saying I want to see his number of carries upped while he is also now asked to catch more passes too, I'm just sayin

 

[Deus Irae]

But assuming Burk is out, the role of primarily carrying the ball has to be taken over, to some degree, by Gill while Lewis will now fill more of the utility knife position. Personally I'm ok with that on one level. Get Lewis a pass with some space/ability to get moving forward with some momentum? He can be a monster threat to run by/around guys. But I don't blame JM/BB for using him overwhelmingly as a runner -- the numbers speak for themselves. Where I'm not ok with it on the other level is the harsh reality that Gill is unlikely to reproduce the running production that Lewis is currently providing.

I don't expect Gillislee to get all that many snaps (note that his big drop in snaps started before Burkhead returned).
I expect that White will get more snaps

Although, with these last two games, I could see BB and McDaniels using Gillislee more than they normally would expect to, if the Patriots can get a good lead early. It would be a way to keep Lewis fresher for the playoffs.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I don't expect Gillislee to get all that many snaps (note that his big drop in snaps started before Burkhead returned).
I expect that White will get more snaps

Although, with these last two games, I could see BB and McDaniels using Gillislee more than they normally would expect to, if the Patriots can get a good lead early. It would be a way to keep Lewis fresher for the playoffs.

I hadn't considered White being given significantly more hand offs or more precisely didn't think they wouldn't go that route.

I think the Patriots are around 27 +/- rushes a game and Lewis has been kept pretty consistently at a max of 15 with 1 to 2 pass targets. Assuming they keep to his touches limit and he is targeted in the passing game more by a factor of 3 or 4, I'd expect his rushes to settle back to around 12. For White is getting around 3 rushes a game. So assuming White is increased toward the 10 rush mark then Gill will see around +/- 5 rushes.

Obviously that's a lot of generalization, the game situations (for example Miami) will dictate rushes to passing ratio, and with a comfortable later game lead we may see Gill take over the workload. But it will be interesting to see how this plays out with the three, how the roles alter in Burk's absence, will White be productive in the increased handoffs (if he doesn't it puts worrisome load on Lewis) and if that 5 rushes estimate holds true for Gill.
Certainly would love to see Gill come out and be very productive in whatever rushes he gets. Even better, get him on film catching a few passes. More backs who can gain solid yards on the ground and can catch passes the better.

 

[maineman209]

I am not saying there has been anything alarming, but I noticed that White was a dual threat running and receiving and both seem to have diminished. I would like to know if what I am saying is borne out. I could be wrong. Perhaps someone can find his third down stats and see what has been happening. I understand he is used less on first and second downs, but I think he takes nearly all the 3rd downs but converts fewer. It is a hypothesis.

This is a breakdown of 3rd down receiving for the season so far (posted on Twitter this morning by "PatsFans" and re-tweeted by Miguel).

I don't know about 3rd down rushing.

I understand that you're posing hypotheses, but it seems to me that accurately answering the underlying questions in a quantifiable manner would require (at the very least) extracting the data from play-by-play information for each game, including down-and-distance, time on the game clock, personnel on the field, game score, availability of alternative players for that game, etc., in order to provide at least some context (though we'll still never know how the play was drawn up, whether or not a given play was an improvisation, what the defensive pressure and coverage were, who may have missed a block, etc.).

Even with all of that it's still a fairly small data sample size relative to the number of variables involved.

That seems like a lot of work and it's not worth my time right now to take such a deep dive in order to address an implication (that seems to be "there may be something 'wrong' with White") that's based on an even smaller sample size - a snapshot of six games, 129 total snaps, and 34 touches involving White.

Especially when, in this specific instance, there may be an overview observation/"test" available that may provide an answer of approximately equal validity or that may at least make the "snapshot" hypothesis/implication moot.

The overview hypothesis is that there was a general configuration/plan for the offensive attack, and the assigned skill-player roles, within it that changed when Edelman was injured. If true, then it's reasonable to hypothesize that it changed again (at least to a contingency plan) when Burkhead became unavailable in wk-3 and changed again when he became available again for wk-7 (with Lewis' productivity also improving over the course of that period).

So, it's also reasonable to hypothesize that the BYE provided an opportunity to more thoroughly configure and Edelman-less (and, now, Hogan-less) plan that affected the roles/assignments of all the other skill position players to at least some degree. That's the context for the "White's productivity" snapshot.

Now, with Burkhead being unavailable again, Gillislee (likely) being added to the mix, and Britt being added to the mix, and with the Pats finally being in charge of their own destiny WRT their playoff seeding (and all the other configuration/game-planning variables that go with that), it seems reasonable to hypothesize that the roles/assignments of most of the offensive skill-position players (including White) will change again to some degree.

Depending on how White's role/assignments change in this new context, this may provide an opportunity to observe whether White's productivity also changes or not. So, we may have significantly more statistical and observational data to work with if we simply wait until 5:00pm five days from now.